RobinBHM
Established Member
This article,
http://openeurope.org.uk/intelligence/b ... -a-brexit/
Had calculated Brexit will affect UK gdp by between -2.2 to + 1.6 in 2030. The range is largely based on how well the UK reform and become a deregulated, free trading economy.
It suggests the best possible scenario would be to remain in and put its effort into reforming the EU and reduce eu interference. Reforming the EU would be to the benefit of both UK and Europe.
To me, therein lies the fundamental problem, the european parliament doesnt want to reform, they want further integration as that increases their wealth, power and size. The UK, has never had any success in influencing EU decisions, we conceded fishing rights on day one and its been downhill since then. A huge barrier to reform or any form of change is getting 20 or so countries to actually reach any agreement.
My feeling is that both remain and Brexit options will be painful. Brexit could be good, but reform will probably be too slow. Remain and no doubt Europe will resist reform and greater integration will continue making a later exit more and more difficult. Probably any reform of Europe will only be reactive driven by economic catastrophy in the euro zone, perhaps combined with a future recession.
http://openeurope.org.uk/intelligence/b ... -a-brexit/
Had calculated Brexit will affect UK gdp by between -2.2 to + 1.6 in 2030. The range is largely based on how well the UK reform and become a deregulated, free trading economy.
It suggests the best possible scenario would be to remain in and put its effort into reforming the EU and reduce eu interference. Reforming the EU would be to the benefit of both UK and Europe.
To me, therein lies the fundamental problem, the european parliament doesnt want to reform, they want further integration as that increases their wealth, power and size. The UK, has never had any success in influencing EU decisions, we conceded fishing rights on day one and its been downhill since then. A huge barrier to reform or any form of change is getting 20 or so countries to actually reach any agreement.
My feeling is that both remain and Brexit options will be painful. Brexit could be good, but reform will probably be too slow. Remain and no doubt Europe will resist reform and greater integration will continue making a later exit more and more difficult. Probably any reform of Europe will only be reactive driven by economic catastrophy in the euro zone, perhaps combined with a future recession.