Who is in and who is out?

[RobinBHM]

This article,

http://openeurope.org.uk/intelligence/b ... -a-brexit/

Had calculated Brexit will affect UK gdp by between -2.2 to + 1.6 in 2030. The range is largely based on how well the UK reform and become a deregulated, free trading economy.

It suggests the best possible scenario would be to remain in and put its effort into reforming the EU and reduce eu interference. Reforming the EU would be to the benefit of both UK and Europe.

To me, therein lies the fundamental problem, the european parliament doesnt want to reform, they want further integration as that increases their wealth, power and size. The UK, has never had any success in influencing EU decisions, we conceded fishing rights on day one and its been downhill since then. A huge barrier to reform or any form of change is getting 20 or so countries to actually reach any agreement.

My feeling is that both remain and Brexit options will be painful. Brexit could be good, but reform will probably be too slow. Remain and no doubt Europe will resist reform and greater integration will continue making a later exit more and more difficult. Probably any reform of Europe will only be reactive driven by economic catastrophy in the euro zone, perhaps combined with a future recession.

 

[mind_the_goat]

Been thinking about value the costs of membership and looking at some other things the UK is thinking of spending money on

EU contribution 8bn/Year
HS2 42bn
Hinkley 25bn
Trident 170bn

Maybe there are other ways to save money and invest in all the things the brexiters have promised to spend near found wealth on.

 

[Rhossydd]

The VAT contribution per capita in the UK is £246 in total in 2007-13.

The problem with this figure plucked out of the net is the 'per capita' fallacy.

Membership of the EU isn't some sort of individual fee chargeable to every citizen, it's a percentage of it's overall tax haul. Hence why successful counties, like the UK pay more than the less successful ones like Greece.

So as an individual you may not pay much at all, especially so if you don't pay much tax.
Someone paying high rate tax, or a LOT of high rate tax and being able to spend more on taxable luxuries will consequently pay a lot more to the EU.

Furthermore a lot of the tax haul won't come from UK citizens at all.
To give two examples;
Overseas sales
I run a small internet based service business that charges VAT regardless of location. About 40% of the orders come from offshore and all of the VAT charged is passed straight back to HMRC.
Tourism
The UK tourism industry is reckoned to bring in over ten billion pounds from overseas. A very big part of that will spent in the UK on goods and services that charge VAT, hotels, hot food etc.

So don't let them delude you into thinking you're paying more that you actually are.

how much this inefficient, corrupt political union costs

To you ? probably not a lot. To someone more able to pay ? probably more ?
Go on work out your own numbers and surprise yourself.

As a high rate tax payer I paid £70 to the EU for a year from tax & NI. Not a lot.
If I had to spend an extra two hours sorting out paperwork or VISAs when selling or working abroad I'd be loosing money.

 

[Sheffield Tony]

One of the things that puzzles me is that there seems to be an assumption that, if we chose to remain now, we will be locked in forever. We could surely chose to leave at a later date, if things get less tolerable. But if we leave and later decide it to be a mistake, the EU are not likely to rush to welcome us back with open arrms, I suspect ? In which context, remain is a much safer choice, as it keeps options open.

 

[clk230]

But would you let someone else tell you how you have to spend your £160 on consumables for your hobby ?

It would be nice if everyone got to choose where al their taxes were spent, but the country would be a complete mess if we could. You are certainly not going to get that £160 back in your pocket and, in my view, will likely have less to spend your hobby if we leave.

Come on you know EXACTLY what I was getting at !! i.e a non elected bunch of euro's spending the money .

 

[Cheshirechappie]

One of the things that puzzles me is that there seems to be an assumption that, if we chose to remain now, we will be locked in forever. We could surely chose to leave at a later date, if things get less tolerable. But if we leave and later decide it to be a mistake, the EU are not likely to rush to welcome us back with open arrms, I suspect ? In which context, remain is a much safer choice, as it keeps options open.

We're rather into 'what if' territory here, however....

As I understand it, if we do vote to leave, nothing much happens for two years, presumably including our continuing to make our current financial contribution to EU coffers. After that, presumably at some point, our contribution will cease. That's a chunk of money the EU will have to find somewhere else, or prune it's activities accordingly. Thus, if at some point down the line, we find we wish to rejoin, and assuming the EU then still exists in its present form, they'd be delighted to have our contribution back.

There are all sorts of things that could happen if we vote for Brexit. It's possible that other countries might demand similar referendums, and it's possible that some may end up with a leave vote - there is disquiet about the EU among the populations of several countries. That may encourage the EU to become more democratic, or to abandon it's integrationist strategy and instead become an association of independent, self-governing sovereign nations, something nearer to the free-trade area we were told we were voting for in 1975.

Thus, if we did decide in (say) twenty years time that we wished to rejoin, we may be joining something more acceptable to the enthusiasts for democracy amongst us.

It's also possible that the EU's answer to Brexit is to accelerate integration; in that case, I suspect it would become less palatable to a majority of the UK's electorate.

 

[stuartpaul]

If we do leave and decide to rejoin the cost will be a real killer. Those who think it's bad now can wave goodbye to any rebate.

I can't see any way the French or Germans would allow a rebate (again). We'd pay even more than the number on the side of the Brexit bus (which is wrong) plus whatever else they want to screw us for.

Staying or leaving are both something of a leap in the dark and whichever way it goes we're going to need very high calibre politicians to manoeuvre us carefully through a maze of different issues. We are therefore screwed!

 

[Phil Pascoe]

Oh, they'll give us a rebate - £25billion a year, please - and we'll give you £5billion off. See how generous we are to you.
It won't make any difference - the EU is already in the merde and the Euro will collapse long before we think we need to return. I would have to be on my knees dying of starvation before I voted to go back in.

 

[Rhossydd]

we find we wish to rejoin, and assuming the EU then still exists in its present form, they'd be delighted to have our contribution back.

Highly unlikely.
It's already been hinted at that any exit would be regarded very badly by the other EU states, hence the worry about punitive trade deals etc. memories of an insult like leaving won't be forgotten.
The idea we would be welcomed back seems deeply flawed. It would only happen if leaving was proving to be bad for our country and the economy was failing. Why would they be welcoming to a failing economy ?

What ever happens it would be on much worse terms too.

It's no safety fall back when things go wrong.

 

[Phil Pascoe]

So if they're that pathetically small minded and petty we're better off without them.

 

[Rhossydd]

So if they're that pathetically small minded and petty

Don't let your prejudices get in the way.
It's simple common sense.
You wouldn't re-admit a failing state unless it would be beneficial to the overall community.

I also think that they would see us as "pathetically small minded and petty" to have left in the first place.

 

[paulm]

Trying to decide long term, major, strategic issues such as this based on points of detail or forecast outcomes is to descend into a spiral of ever decreasing circles and paralysis by analysis !

The only way to sensibly deal with it is considering the fundamentals at a strategic level, and then deal afterwards with the details and inevitable bumps in the road that will arise whichever way you jump.

Seems to me that fundamentally it is an exceedingly poor idea to mortgage your trust and future well being of yourselves and future generations to an unelected, unaccountable massive quango with a heavily socialist agenda, that has a substantial track record of serial incompetence, corruption and wide ranging and self serving agendas and heavily biased and exceedingly poor political decision making.

It will never be in our best interests to tie ourselves to such an organisation with such an appalling track record and every prospect of falling apart at the seams in the not too distant future.

Those with a short term agenda of personal and corporate enrichment as part of the EU gravy train will of course claim it is the only way forwards, that is to be expected, but it doesn't mean they are objective, independent, truthful, or correct !

Those worried souls who want certain outcomes and forecasts and guarantees and won't get out of their beds in the morning in case the sky falls on their heads, and those who seek the opportunity for short term personal enrichment at the expense of the long term, will likely never be persuaded to vote to take control and vote leave, while those with a degree of real world experience and the ability and experience to see the way forwards through the clouds of FUD thrown up by the vested, self serving interests, will hopefully continue their efforts to drag the UK away from the failing and flawed EU model that has been hijacked and corrupted out of all recognition from it's early and simplistic ideals.

Look at the appalling EU track record in fraud, awful political decision making, and complete inepitude in major practical issues, and ask yourself why you would want more of the same for the foreseeable future !

 

[Cheshirechappie]

we find we wish to rejoin, and assuming the EU then still exists in its present form, they'd be delighted to have our contribution back.

Highly unlikely.
It's already been hinted at that any exit would be regarded very badly by the other EU states, hence the worry about punitive trade deals etc. memories of an insult like leaving won't be forgotten.
The idea we would be welcomed back seems deeply flawed. It would only happen if leaving was proving to be bad for our country and the economy was failing. Why would they be welcoming to a failing economy ?

What ever happens it would be on much worse terms too.

It's no safety fall back when things go wrong.

My view, informed by a study of Britain's history, is that we would do quite well - or more likely very well - outside the EU in it's current integrationist form. Thus, we would not be looking to rejoin. (It's very unlikely that we'd become an economic basket case. The things that caused that in the 1970s no longer apply.)

If Brexit caused a reform of the EU along more democratic and less integrationist lines, the need for large sums of public money would cease, and membership fees if we did choose to rejoin would not be a significant factor.

If Brexit caused the EU to accelerate integration, the chances of a UK electorate voting to rejoin would diminish significantly, so there would be no need to consider financial contribution.

 

[Phil Pascoe]

Looking at Europe at the moment, they've got better things to worry about than us - and even better things again when we cease to to pay their bills.
" the failing and flawed EU model that has been hijacked and corrupted out of all recognition from it's early and simplistic ideals. " Sorry, Paul, I agree with your post except for that - the EU is going the way it was always intended to, it's on track it's not been hijacked.

 

[Cheshirechappie]

So if they're that pathetically small minded and petty

Don't let your prejudices get in the way.
It's simple common sense.
You wouldn't re-admit a failing state unless it would be beneficial to the overall community.

I also think that they would see us as "pathetically small minded and petty" to have left in the first place.

Actually, they're terrified that if the UK leaves, others may want to, and the whole thing might come tumbling down - taking their cushy, highly-paid sinecures and generous pensions with it.

 

[RogerS]

So if they're that pathetically small minded and petty

Don't let your prejudices get in the way.
It's simple common sense.
You wouldn't re-admit a failing state unless it would be beneficial to the overall community.

I also think that they would see us as "pathetically small minded and petty" to have left in the first place.

Oh please...spare me the heart-rending.

"Overall community" ? Do you really think that your average German, Frenchman or Italian is thinking this ?

 

[Rhossydd]

Actually, they're terrified that if the UK leaves, others may want to, and the whole thing might come tumbling down - taking their cushy, highly-paid sinecures and generous pensions with it.

A perfectly reasonable response really. The EU doesn't want to see the whole European economy sent into turmoil and decline.

 

[Phil Pascoe]

"The EU doesn't want to see the whole European economy sent into turmoil and decline."
Bit late in the day to worry about that.

 

[Rhossydd]

"Overall community" ? Do you really think that your average German, Frenchman or Italian is thinking this ?

Actually yes. Work with Europeans and you'll find they like the idea of being a "European" whilst still having their own regional identity.

This seems to be core of the issue; Can you be English* and European ?
Most mainland Europeans I've talked to seem happy with it, not so sure about people here though.

*Insert regional identity of choice English/Scottish/Cornish/Tuscan/Basque etc. etc.

 

[Cheshirechappie]

Actually, they're terrified that if the UK leaves, others may want to, and the whole thing might come tumbling down - taking their cushy, highly-paid sinecures and generous pensions with it.

A perfectly reasonable response really. The EU doesn't want to see the whole European economy sent into turmoil and decline.

European economies would be better off without the EU - especially Spain (currently 40% youth unemployment), Greece (50% youth unemployment), Portugal, Italy and Ireland. If the EU wants to avoid economic turmoil and decline, the best thing it could do is disband itself.