Who is in and who is out?

[RobinBHM]

Most of the remain camp base predictions on economic growth based on an EU in its present state.

The euro zone doesnt look particularly stable with Greece, Portugal, Spain and Italy all with economic problems.

There is much talk about trade deals, whilst we have free trade with europe now as we are a significant importer from Europe It must be in Europe interest to negotiate a sensible deal.

Europe does not have trade deals with the largest growing economies, Chine, India, Brazil -out of Europe there is an opportunity to do so.

Polls seem to be about 51 to 49 so its quite close.........

 

[Eric The Viking]

... And remember that you lot in the Leave camp are the ones who would gamble your future and everyone else's on that toss of the coin.

Right back at ya!

We know, with certainty, that there are huge structural problems across the EU, both economic and political:

1. The euro will fail, collapsing some local economies as it goes down, and seriously damaging lenders too (which includes some of our own banks, incidentally, and pension funds, and so on. It makes no difference if we're in or out, EXCEPT that we can yet be tapped up to fund more pointless bailouts of lending institutions in the eurozone.

Cameron (well Osborne) claims we have negotiated an exemption from this, but in truth we haven't. There is now a mechanism whereby we can "indicate our reasoned opposition" to a fresh bailout after which the European Council "shall discuss the issue". Nice of them to be so considerate.

Remember the Irish referendum on the euro, and the French referendum on the European Constitution (when Cameron wouldn't give us one)? When the lies didn't work on the French, it was passed anyway. The Irish were just told to stay behind after school until they'd done their referendum properly. So good luck with that one!

2. The migration crisis will continue to get a LOT worse. This in itself is enough to topple some of the less stable governments. Without proper control of our borders, good luck with that one too.

3. The EU parliament starts debating a new European Army the day after our referendum (24th June, as reported in The Times, over the w/e). Surely no accident, with timing specifically intended to rub our noses in it. It will pass, if Germany and France want it to. So, if you don't want some grey bureaucrat in Brussels deciding to square up to Putin one Thursday afternoon, putting British troops on the front line... well good luck with that one.

4. The accession countries will continue to want to accede, obviously. That includes delightful places like Albania and Turkey (who continues to use force of criminal law against critics of its politicians and even comedians who make fun of them!). They will continue the dilution of our very limited influence within the EU, and some of them have an Islamic agenda quite foreign to Europe since the gates of Vienna.

These things are not speculation. They are serious downside risks to remaining in the EU. The Remain camp needs to explain what its plan is to address them. So far I haven't heard anything cogent whatsoever.

We shouldn't be frightened of leaving the EU - most of the world comprises sovereign independent nations, after all - we should be frightened of what will happen to these islands if we stay in.

E.

 

[Cheshirechappie]

Just to add one to Eric's list - if the Leave vote wins, the UK will be governed by an institution elected by ordinary people, and if that government is not acting as the electorate think is in the best interests of the country, it can be elected out and other people given authority. If the Remain vote prevails, the UK will be governed (eventually) by people appointed, not elected. Only the EU commission has authority to propose or change legislation under the Lisbon treaty, and if any electorate in any of the 28 countries don't like it, there's absolutely nothing short of insurrection they can do about it.

Another one that's on the way - the universal EU tax identification number. Once they've got that in place, your taxes will be taken from you by Brussels, not HMRC.....

http://www.taxand.com/taxands-take/thou ... ion-number

 

[Phil Pascoe]

The main problem with staying in is staying in what? It will never be the same again, regardless what happens on June 23rd. It's all very well to say oh, we'll be ok, we're exempt from that ... it'll be fine, we don't have to take part in that ... We'll always have the pound, we're outside any requirement to adopt the Euro ... We're OK - we won't have to put troops in a European army ... Of course we won't have to take more immigrants ...
And the best of all - We'll always be OK, we've got a veto. How long does anyone think that'll last? One fine morning they'll ask the representatives from the other 27 Countries if the British veto is OK by them, and what will the answer be? That will be changed - anyone who thinks differently is naive.
Incidentally Europhiles are pleased to point out that Cameron did use the veto (to reinforce the point that we have it) - he didn't, he refused to vote on that occasion, and pretended that he'd vetoed something.

 

[RogerS]

Some economists say they will go up.
Some economists say it they go down.
Heads or tails anyone ?

But it's not so simple is it ? It's far more like;
9 economists say leaving is very likely to be bad
1 says it might be good.

Skews the odds a little doesn't it ?

Please name them. I'd be interested.

 

[stuartpaul]

And so it begins? Souce - BBC News

'The pound has weakened after new polls suggested an increased chance of a vote in the referendum to leave the European Union.
Sterling did subsequently recover some of the losses.
But there is certainly a view that the currency would decline if Britain were to decide to leave.
Some analysts expect the fall in the value of sterling in the event of a Brexit vote would be very sharp.'

 

[stuartpaul]

Sorry Roger no names but does this help?

'A poll commissioned for the Observer and carried out by Ipsos MORI, which drew responses from more than 600 economists, found 88% saying an exit from the EU and the single market would most likely damage Britain’s growth prospects over the next five years.

A striking 82% of the economists who responded thought there would probably be a negative impact on household incomes over the next five years in the event of a Leave vote, with 61% thinking unemployment would rise.'

 

[RogerS]

And so it begins? Souce - BBC News

'The pound has weakened after new polls suggested an increased chance of a vote in the referendum to leave the European Union.
Sterling did subsequently recover some of the losses.
But there is certainly a view that the currency would decline if Britain were to decide to leave.
Some analysts expect the fall in the value of sterling in the event of a Brexit vote would be very sharp.'

Normal day-to-day minimal fluctuations. Pound goes up and down like a yo-yo. As do the other currencies.

 

[Eric The Viking]

I posted a LONG list of pro-Brexit economists earlier.

What's the matter with all of them???

 

[gregmcateer]

And so the debate rumbles on. And on. And on. Etc etc etc ad infinitum.

I'm still undecided and to be honest not sure I'll ever have enough 'facts' to be sure what's best - for the UK, its constituent parts and or Europe as a whole.

I think that whatever happens I'm going to keep going out to my shed and half finishing projects just like before.

 

[Jacob]

... The various empires or successful nations which have come and gone have succeeded on the basis of centralised power, tight rule and regulation, bureaucracy and so on.

You might want to take a look at the Roman empire. Edward Gibbon's six volumes would be a good place to start. Honestly, anything by Mary Beard would be an easier read/watch though.

You may get rather a shock.

Mary Beard says 212BC was the most significant date in the growth of the Roman Empire when Caracalla granted citizenship to all the free inhabitants of the empire, from Scotland to Syria. Not simple, not the slaves, but the biggest grant of citizenship in the history of the world and massively empowering/consolidating to the empire and its inhabitants.
Lesson here for the EU?
Equal citizenship - free movement, far from being a problem could be a radical driver of improvements for the lives of all of us in ways we are yet to appreciate. Free movement of Bulgarian tinkers is set off by free movement of scientists, industrialists etc. Woodworkers even!
Protectionism, selective rights of movement and tight borders could strangle the whole enterprise.
Brexit seems to be all about fear of change, insecurity, timidity, lack of imagination and being eaten by bears: "always keep a-hold of Nurse For fear of finding something worse"

 

[stuartpaul]

I posted a LONG list of pro-Brexit economists earlier.

What's the matter with all of them???

Nothing at all Eric but I though the MORI poll was a bit more encompassing. https://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpubl ... rexit.aspx

639 respondents (probably 640 opinions though!) makes it a bit more thorough and dare I say a bit less one sided (from either side) although I suspect some will believe otherwise.

 

[Woodmatt]

I think when it comes to the vote most will go with their gut feeling rather than any so called facts they are told by either side.It seems that every "fact"that is broadcast by which ever side is countered by an equally truthful sounding "fact" by the opposite side.I don't think any of us can and will know the truth.
I for one have spent a fair amount of time reading,listening and researching the pro's and con's and are none the wiser,so although from the start and even now are happy to be persuaded by the "facts" to change my view I still feel I am just where I started.

 

[NikNak]

Just as a 'sideways' look at all of this.... does anyone remember the Y2K debacle.?

There was going to be computer crashes, pensions glitches, bank accounts being hacked, microwaves going berserk (according to the Sun ), wrist watches going into time warps, toasters refusing to work......

I have a friend who was (he's retired now) a pensions manager for IBM. And he made an absolute 'packet' in the 18 months up to Y2000 trying to keep 'the suits' happy that everything was going to be fine....

I seem to remember there were 'experts' on both sides then telling us what would/could happen....

Can you remember what happened come midnight on December 31st 1999...?? NOTHING....!! everything carried on as normal.

When i was still working (i gave up last year... couldn't stand the politics of that anymore..!!) i was constantly told "you must embrace change.... learn new skills.... if you stand still you move backwards...." the only people that benefited from all my (and others) efforts were the managers and boss's.....

Thats it.... i've said my piece



Nick

 

[Rhossydd]

Just as a 'sideways' look at all of this.... does anyone remember the Y2K debacle.?
Can you remember what happened come midnight on December 31st 1999...?? NOTHING....!! everything carried on as normal.

Mainly because people were made aware of the problems and possibilities and acted to prevent them happening.

 

[Phil Pascoe]

I did see one letter signed by innumerable "experts" on the dangers of Britain leaving. Where it lost credibility as one commenter pointed out was that every single one of them belonged to an organisation or worked for company that was known to get money (in some cases a lot of money) from the EU. My daughter is voting in - primarily because her university (a Russell group) has received tens upon tens of millions from the EU, and she doesn't think our government would have spent it. At least with the leavers there are few with a vested interest.

 

[Jacob]

I did see one letter signed by innumerable "experts" on the dangers of Britain leaving. Where it lost credibility as one commenter pointed out was that every single one of them belonged to an organisation or worked for company that was known to get money (in some cases a lot of money) from the EU. My daughter is voting in - primarily because her university (a Russell group) has received tens upon tens of millions from the EU, and she doesn't think our government would have spent it. At least with the leavers there are few with a vested interest.

Vested interests is fine.
We want to know what benefits people get.
There's no point in listening to people who have no interest in the EU at all and nothing to gain - they are bound to say leave things as they are.

 

[Phil Pascoe]

I'd sooner listen to someone who said we should leave because it would be better for the Country than I would to someone who said we should remain because they make money out of it (irrespective of whether it costs other people) - which appears to be the case for an awful lot of people.

 

[Rhossydd]

every single one of them belonged to an organisation or worked for company that was known to get money (in some cases a lot of money) from the EU.

Exactly, almost everyone in the UK gets some benefit from the EU! Living in Cornwall you should know that better than most. The EU pump billions into deprived rural areas in development aid.

 

[Phil Pascoe]

Yes, a few of the billions we give them are given back and we spend them as we are told to. We've a nice new £35,000,000 road - that goes goes effectively from nowhere to nowhere. Everyone in the UK gets some benefit from the EU- I should bl00dy hope so, we pay dearly enough for it.