Who is in and who is out?

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Moving the discussion on to other aspects of Remaining/Leaving EU.

If we leave it weakens the EU - others will attempt to copy and hold referendums, they always do.
A weakened EU allows Putin more power with the likes of Ukraine and the Baltic states. He must be rubbing his hands waiting for the UK to leave.

Taken in the round the only sensible solution is to Remain; nothing is perfect, coming out will be a nightmare.

Brian
 
Jacob":2ge1gv64 said:
The EU is strong on workers rights and protection which is one of the strongest reasons for staying in.

Workers' rights?

What's youth unemployment running at in Spain? 40%? 50%? It's even higher in Greece, too. Then there's the effect the Euro had on Ireland - first it fuelled a boom, then it bust the economy so badly that the Irish ended up becoming depressingly familiar with something they thought they'd consigned to history - mass emigration. Then there's Stuart Rose - a leader of the Remain campaign until they shut him up - telling us that getting out of the EU could cause wages to rise in the UK (and he thought that would be a bad thing!)

Erm - those workers' rights?
 
finneyb":3k8jr287 said:
Moving the discussion on to other aspects of Remaining/Leaving EU.

If we leave it weakens the EU - others will attempt to copy and hold referendums, they always do.
A weakened EU allows Putin more power with the likes of Ukraine and the Baltic states. He must be rubbing his hands waiting for the UK to leave.

Taken in the round the only sensible solution is to Remain; nothing is perfect, coming out will be a nightmare.

Brian

Nah - doesn't affect NATO, which is the defence against Putin. And if leaving would be a nightmare (actually, I rather doubt that - I don't think anybody would notice much difference in the short term, except some MEPs having to find other employment), then staying in would be far worse.
 
phil.p":tkottiye said:
England could pay for Wales - cut out the middle man. :D
Hahahaha! I don't see that happening... but stand to be corrected.

Again, no one has offered anything beyond speculation to why leaving is of benefit.
 
Cheshirechappie":28n6xn3r said:
finneyb":28n6xn3r said:
Moving the discussion on to other aspects of Remaining/Leaving EU.

If we leave it weakens the EU - others will attempt to copy and hold referendums, they always do.
A weakened EU allows Putin more power with the likes of Ukraine and the Baltic states. He must be rubbing his hands waiting for the UK to leave.

Taken in the round the only sensible solution is to Remain; nothing is perfect, coming out will be a nightmare.

Brian

Nah - doesn't affect NATO, which is the defence against Putin. And if leaving would be a nightmare (actually, I rather doubt that - I don't think anybody would notice much difference in the short term, except some MEPs having to find other employment), then staying in would be far worse.

I'm talking about relative GDPs of the two blocks and EU ability to support the Baltic states economically if needed. They form a very useful buffer. A larger EU GDP has more scope for effective economic sanctions against Russia. Economic sanctions are a preferable route to NATO action every time, because if NATO acts in anger against Russia we have WWIII.
 
Rhyolith":35o0mt7u said:
phil.p":35o0mt7u said:
England could pay for Wales - cut out the middle man. :D
Hahahaha! I don't see that happening... but stand to be corrected.

Again, no one has offered anything beyond speculation to why leaving is of benefit.
Speculation? There's one whole load of speculation involved in staying in. Everyone on the in side is fond of saying "we'll never join the Euro", "we'll always have a veto", "we'll not have to take the thousands of immigrants the rest are taking", "we'll never have to bail out Greece, Portugal or wherever", "we'll never have to pay for the mess Germany's got itself in with the "migrant crisis" (which we were all told was a financial boon to host country)" and so on.
How long do you think these things are to last? No straw is too minute to be clutched when it comes to saving the Euro - It's their only hope of a European federation - so the rules will be changed to incorporate the UK. We're already bailing out German and French banks because of the crisis in Greece, despite being told we're not, and when Germany realises they've scored a huge own goal millions of immigrants will be given European papers and waved goodbye, despite promises to the contrary.
 
finneyb":g3fnvzu0 said:
Those three would make Trump look left wing.
Brian

Thanks for the detailed analysis.

i love it when one answers a question with detail and someone basically says, "Never mind the facts, I just don't like the answer.."

I certainly can't argue with you on that basis, and your view is shared by many of those in the Remain camp, I know. ](*,)

But here's a list of a few more economists who want out (from the Vote Leave partner site):

  • Roger Bootle, Managing Director, Capital Economics
  • Ryan Bourne, Head of Public Policy, Institute of Economic Affairs
  • Keith Boyfield, Executive Director, Keith Boyfield Associates
  • Professor Tim Congdon, Founder, International Monetary Research Ltd
  • Sean Corrigan, Hinde Capital
  • Mike Denham, Research Fellow, The TaxPayers’ Alliance
  • Bryan Gould, Former Labour Shadow Cabinet member & former Vice-Chancellor, University of Waikato
  • Dr David Green, Chief Executive, CIVITAS
  • Dr. Oliver Hartwich, Executive Director, The New Zealand Initiative
  • Damon de Laszlo, Chairman, Economic Research Council
  • Graeme Leach, Former Chief Economist, Institute of Directors
  • Andrew Lilico, Chairman, Economists for Britain
  • Neil MacKinnon, Global Macro Strategist, VTB Capital
  • Dr Eileen Marshall, IEA Advisory Council
  • Professor Kent Matthews, Associate Dean for Engagement & Professor of Money and Banking, Cardiff University
  • Michael Petley, Chief Investment Officer, ECU Group
  • John Mills, Chairman and Founder of JML
  • Professor Patrick Minford, Professor of Economics, Cardiff Business School
  • Iain Murray, Vice President for Strategy, Competitive Enterprise Institute (Washington DC)
  • David Myddelton, Professor D.R. Myddelton, Emeritus Professor of Finance and Accounting, Cranfield School of Management.
  • Ross Parker
  • Brian Reading, former economics adviser to Edward Heath
  • Professor Colin Robinson, Advisory Council Institute of Economic Affairs & Emeritus Professor, Surrey University
  • Matthew Sinclair, Senior Consultant, Europe Economics
  • Professor Phil Whyman, Professor of Economics, Business, Economics and International Business, University of Central Lancashire
  • Dr Geoffrey Wyatt, Heriot-Watt University

. . .

You know, I didn't start off eurosceptic. Back in the 1980s I was a euro-enthusiast. But things began to look a bit "strange" around the time of Maastrict, and I started to do a little digging. I really did not like what I found.

Interesting that John Major got so righteously angry this morning about the Brexit campaign. I watched the clip on the BBC web site - all bluster and distraction, with no solid facts whatsoever. Also on my bookshelf I have a copy of the late Theresa Gorman's book, "The Baftards" about the Maastrict treaty going through the Commons.

This has never been a fair nor honest fight, as far as I can tell.
 
Rhyolith":zdbfjr3c said:
Again, no one has offered anything beyond speculation to why leaving is of benefit.

Yes we have - it's about being governed by people we elect and can (collectively) hold to account through the ballot box.

All MPs, from whom the government decision-makers are drawn, are elected, and if enough of the electorate feel that a government isn't adequately serving the country, it can be changed - as happened in 1979, 1997 and 2010.

The EU decisions are made by Commissioners (appointed, not elected), and by the Council of Ministers, of which we can influence one out of 28. Consequently, no country's electorate can hold the EU to account through the ballot box.
 
Rhyolith":2b0iuwug said:
phil.p":2b0iuwug said:
It already does - it's only a question of scale.
Does it? Where's the evidence?
England supports Wales, N. Ireland and Scotland. The money is in London and the South East. It is particularly galling when they get free prescriptions and more when England doesn't.
 
finneyb":1vnetirn said:
Cheshirechappie":1vnetirn said:
finneyb":1vnetirn said:
Moving the discussion on to other aspects of Remaining/Leaving EU.

If we leave it weakens the EU - others will attempt to copy and hold referendums, they always do.
A weakened EU allows Putin more power with the likes of Ukraine and the Baltic states. He must be rubbing his hands waiting for the UK to leave.

Taken in the round the only sensible solution is to Remain; nothing is perfect, coming out will be a nightmare.

Brian

Nah - doesn't affect NATO, which is the defence against Putin. And if leaving would be a nightmare (actually, I rather doubt that - I don't think anybody would notice much difference in the short term, except some MEPs having to find other employment), then staying in would be far worse.

I'm talking about relative GDPs of the two blocks and EU ability to support the Baltic states economically if needed. They form a very useful buffer. A larger EU GDP has more scope for effective economic sanctions against Russia. Economic sanctions are a preferable route to NATO action every time, because if NATO acts in anger against Russia we have WWIII.

Why do sovereign nations need to be members of the EU in order to co-operate for mutual benefit?

There's a valid argument that the EU exacerbated problems with Russia by it's excessively expansionist policy in Ukraine. Had the EU not been so arrogant, we would have better relations with Putin.
 
Cheshirechappie":20tiwu05 said:
....Consequently, no country's electorate can hold the EU to account through the ballot box.
Completely untrue. We vote for our MEPs who are participants in EU business (except for the Ukippers who take the money but don't turn up) and we vote for our MPs who also have input into the EU. And if necessary we can repeat this referendum any time we want and pull right out.
Obviously business is delegated etc - we don't expect a plebiscite on every issue so we don't control every detail, but that's how it is with all governments - with nearly all business in fact - you employ a plumber but you don't lean over his shoulder looking at every move, well you shouldn't!
 
Cheshirechappie":1fn76z18 said:
....
Why do sovereign nations need to be members of the EU in order to co-operate for mutual benefit?.....
It just happens that "EU" is the acronym for this particular mutual benefit co-operation.
You can't be a member of a cooperative and not be a member at the same time. Or agree a contract but not agree it.
This is simple stuff.
Would calling it something else help?
 
phil.p":1krkvjso said:
Rhyolith":1krkvjso said:
phil.p":1krkvjso said:
England could pay for Wales - cut out the middle man. :D
Hahahaha! I don't see that happening... but stand to be corrected.

Again, no one has offered anything beyond speculation to why leaving is of benefit.
Speculation? There's one whole load of speculation involved in staying in...
Yes there is, and there also non-speculative reasons. The argument for leaving to me only has the former.

Further, immigration seems to be a constant buzz word for those arguing to leave. I don't like all th selfish 'this is our country and they are taking our jobs' type talk, people need our help and we are capable of giving it... so shouldn't we? I can see thr economic and enviromental reasons for keeping our population from growing anymore, however it seems that it would be moral to do this via controlling birth rates oppose to dening those already living and in need of a good life.
 
Cheshirechappie":192ynp6g said:
Rhyolith":192ynp6g said:
Again, no one has offered anything beyond speculation to why leaving is of benefit.

Yes we have - it's about being governed by people we elect and can (collectively) hold to account through the ballot box.

All MPs, from whom the government decision-makers are drawn, are elected, and if enough of the electorate feel that a government isn't adequately serving the country, it can be changed - as happened in 1979, 1997 and 2010.

The EU decisions are made by Commissioners (appointed, not elected), and by the Council of Ministers, of which we can influence one out of 28. Consequently, no country's electorate can hold the EU to account through the ballot box.

I'm not buying this lack of democracy argument wrt EU. I see little difference between the UK and the EU systems in terms of effective democracy.

UK has the Civil Service - EU has the European Commission; it is the Civil Service who basically run the country under the political regime, as does the European Commission for the EU . The electorate doesn't appoint Permanent Secretaries in the Civil Service, why should they appoint Commissioners? The appointment of both Permanent Secretaries and Commissioners are subject to a political veto - Select Committee in the UK and European Parliament for the EU.

A single constituency in the UK cannot vote down the Govt and neither can it in the EU. So effective democracy in the UK is some distance from the individual voter, as it is in the EU.

The UK Parliament has political party groupings - so does the EU Parliament. Your MP or MEP needs to toe the party/group line in most cases in both systems. Of course the MP/MEP will have had a say in deciding the party line - which will be a compromise in both cases. The individual voter has little or no say in either case, either just votes one way or the other out of habit or to the party that appears to protect his/her interests. The fact that MEPs are elected on a proportional representational basis is a UK decision for the UK - personally I would prefer to see who I am electing and would support that change although I suspect it would make little difference to the outcome of the election.

The Council of Ministers is equivalent to the UK's Cabinet in that both are formed of senior ministers - how often does a Cabinet member get voted off by the UK electorate ?

There is of necessity far more consensus with EU decisions than with the UK system where the Govt has a majority of MPs and can basically get anything through the Commons if the majority is large enough. I see the need to have more consensus being a positive requiring professionalism and discussion as opposed to the primary school playground antics we see at Westminster.

EU democracy isn't an issue, I agree it works differently than the UK but difference isn't necessarily a bad thing.

Remain, there is nothing to be gained by leaving.

Brian
 
Brian, that makes sense to me. Its a somewhat more informed version of my opinion regarding the EU democracy issue.
 
We will be stuffed if we vote out and we will be stuffed if we vote in. One way or another we will be made to pay for our temerity in suggesting that the EU is not perfect.
 
finneyb":jgistopv said:
Cheshirechappie":jgistopv said:
Rhyolith":jgistopv said:
Again, no one has offered anything beyond speculation to why leaving is of benefit.

Yes we have - it's about being governed by people we elect and can (collectively) hold to account through the ballot box.

All MPs, from whom the government decision-makers are drawn, are elected, and if enough of the electorate feel that a government isn't adequately serving the country, it can be changed - as happened in 1979, 1997 and 2010.

The EU decisions are made by Commissioners (appointed, not elected), and by the Council of Ministers, of which we can influence one out of 28. Consequently, no country's electorate can hold the EU to account through the ballot box.

I'm not buying this lack of democracy argument wrt EU. I see little difference between the UK and the EU systems in terms of effective democracy.

UK has the Civil Service - EU has the European Commission; it is the Civil Service who basically run the country under the political regime, as does the European Commission for the EU . The electorate doesn't appoint Permanent Secretaries in the Civil Service, why should they appoint Commissioners? The appointment of both Permanent Secretaries and Commissioners are subject to a political veto - Select Committee in the UK and European Parliament for the EU.

A single constituency in the UK cannot vote down the Govt and neither can it in the EU. So effective democracy in the UK is some distance from the individual voter, as it is in the EU.

The UK Parliament has political party groupings - so does the EU Parliament. Your MP or MEP needs to toe the party/group line in most cases in both systems. Of course the MP/MEP will have had a say in deciding the party line - which will be a compromise in both cases. The individual voter has little or no say in either case, either just votes one way or the other out of habit or to the party that appears to protect his/her interests. The fact that MEPs are elected on a proportional representational basis is a UK decision for the UK - personally I would prefer to see who I am electing and would support that change although I suspect it would make little difference to the outcome of the election.

The Council of Ministers is equivalent to the UK's Cabinet in that both are formed of senior ministers - how often does a Cabinet member get voted off by the UK electorate ?

There is of necessity far more consensus with EU decisions than with the UK system where the Govt has a majority of MPs and can basically get anything through the Commons if the majority is large enough. I see the need to have more consensus being a positive requiring professionalism and discussion as opposed to the primary school playground antics we see at Westminster.

EU democracy isn't an issue, I agree it works differently than the UK but difference isn't necessarily a bad thing.

Remain, there is nothing to be gained by leaving.

Brian

With respect, Brian - I'm afraid I must disagree.

The Westminster system has evolved over several centuries. We (the electorate) return an MP for each constituency. When we vote, we know which party the candidates align themselves with, and we know who the leader of each party is. Thus we can take into account when voting who is likely to end up forming a government, and who is likely to be PM. The party with most MPs forms the government, the Ministers being selected from elected MPs. If the party with most seats has a majority, it can govern on it's own, if not it can either form a formal coalition with one or more smaller parties, or reach an arrangement for support in voting on matters in the House of Commons.

Ministers then propose legislation, and present Bills to the House of Commons. Parliament scrutinises that legislation in three ways - first debate and vote in the house, then scrutiny by Parliamentary Committee (cross-party, and made up of sitting MPs), then second debate and vote. If the Bill receives a majority, it procedes to the Lords. The Lords also debate, scrutinise in committee and vote; they can delay Government Bills or return them to the Commons for ammendment, but cannot throw them out. If the Bill is voted through the Lords, it becomes law.

Thus, the elected chamber has primacy, but there are several checks in the system to scrutinise legislation before it becomes law.

The Civil Service exists to assist Ministers in draughting proposed legislation, and in implementing it. They take direction from Ministers, and can advise, but cannot instruct or over-ride the direction of Ministers. If they feel it necessary, when directed by a Minister against their advice, Civil Servants can request instruction in writing.

Thus, Ministers take the decisions and are accountable for them to the electorate. The civil service does as directed by the government of the day.

The EU system is different. The overall direction is set by the Council of Ministers, basically the Prime Minister (or equivalent) of each country. Thus we can elect only one minister. The Commission then acts on the directions of the Council of Ministers - Commissioners are appointed, and can't be held to account by any electorate. They can (and do), however, propose legislation. The European Parliament (elected MEPs) can in theory scrutinise legislation, but in practice rarely does so because there is far more legislation than time available - thus, things just go through on the nod. Thus, the electorate cannot hold to account those proposing legislation, and the elected chamber is only, in effect, a talking shop.

Thus , the Westminster system, having more scrutiny of legislation, and having those proposing and scrutinising it accountable to the electorate, is a far more democratic system.


By the way - Cabinet Ministers are sometimes elected out. The most famous example is probably Portillo, but in 2015 Cable, Alexander and Davey lost their seats - as did Ed Balls from the Shadow Cabinet.


(Edited to point out that the Lords can return a Bill to the Commons for amendment.)

Second edit to add - There's an exception to the scrutiny process for legislation through Westminster - EU Directives have to go straight on to the statute book without scrutiny, since our Treaty obligations mean that EU legislation has primacy over national legislation. Estimates vary how much law placed onto the national statute book is of EU origin and how much is national, but somewhere between 15% and 75% (depending on who you believe) is of EU origin.

I can't help thinking that things would be more democratic if the national Parliaments had primacy over the EU, and EU law had to be scrutinised and if need be returned for amendment by national Parliaments. That ain't going to happen, though; it would take the EU far too long to get it's way if they allowed that, so the only way to ensure primacy of the National (elected) Parliament over the less democratic EU is to leave it.
 
If I vote out how much duty will I have to pay on my materials? How much duty will be levied on my products sold to other EU countries? Currently it's zero. To the US it's around 7% + the form filling.
 
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