Electric vehicles

[Just4Fun]

My point with that is that I actually am the guy with the smaller car (by US standards, average for UK, I guess). When I need a truck or cargo van, I rent it.

I don't need a large load carrier often so I tried the rental option a couple of times. It just doesn't work for my use. I typically have little advance notice of needing to carry something. Rental companies here don't deliver or collect. The nearest one in over 40km away. If I need such a vehicle I probably need to do 200 or 300 or more km, purely because I live out in the sticks and everything is spread out. The cost of rental can easily be 150 euro and that is enough to kill most of the activities for which I need a large load carrier.

My next best solution was to look to buy a trailer rather than buying a large vehicle. That seems a much better option. I mentioned this to a friend and he said he had a suitable trailer but didn't really have anywhere to store it. So he suggested he store his trailer at my place. I can use it when I want to and he can do the same. That was 18 months ago. I have used it maybe half a dozen times since then and for me it has been a good deal.

 

[D_W]

no, the savings at this point probably don't....there may be a couple of small exceptions, but not widespread (esp. not tesla).

Kia has an EV that is probably offered there, and for some reason, they ran a package of incentives this year that allowed some people to buy a supposedly $40K vehicle for $24k (i'm sure this is including tax credits at federal and state level, and one does have to have income to write against at least some of them as they're an offset to tax and not a pure credit).

In that case, if the car lasts 150k miles, it's probably a savings.

The car rental thing here is much more relaxed than there, so it's an easier option - especially for the non-business user as weekend users have the upper hand in renting at off peak.

The mrs and I flew to new england (660 miles away) about a decade ago and rented an SUV for an entire week (about $450, unlimited mileage) and put 1000 miles on it. Cost a little more for a week rental in that case as the charge reflected returning the car 660 miles away. When I turned the car in, they gave me a cross look for putting 1000 miles on it, but I noted that their agreement was unlimited mileage - no problem.

Local rentals usually have no mileage limitations, either. A toyota minivan was $75 here for a three day weekend and a buddy and I used it (minivans are probably bigger here than there - they can haul lumber and sheet goods in most cases) to drive a 400 mile round trip and then after I gassed it up, the mrs and I drove it around.

Super cheap.

But even I didn't have much luck when the mrs. wanted a bigger family truckster "for trips". She didn't buy my rental rationale, so I drive a small car and she drives a big one. The biggest difference that I can see is that she doesn't have to pay much attention to the cargo area, so she ends up hauling a lot of junk around that would've been addressed sooner in a smaller car.

 

[Rorschach]

All good points. I think really it's down to personal circumstance, we are all different and choose our vehicles to suit our needs. At the moment there is not an EV to suit my needs (let alone my budget) and there is not the rental system to allow me to change my needs. That system may change in the future though. I can only base my decision on the situation as it stands now, and for now I need an ICE.

 

[D_W]

As a cheap pineappled late model used buyer, I'm also stuck with ICE. But we don't drive that many miles combined for a US user (12-14k total between two separate cars). There are some people here who commute a hundred miles a day - I'd never do that. My BIL does about 90 (and now has a tesla). I guess if you get the automatic driving system, you can half doze off while you're driving, but I don't like trading car hours for "I can stand and do something" hours. Cost of driving like that also adds up sneaky a little at a time.

 

[Trainee neophyte]

Electric pickup trucks should be available from next year, if you can afford one.

Electric Trucks - New Electric Pickup Trucks For 2021 And Beyond

For the same money I can buy a house here, or possibly two houses - so some thinking to do. Maybe a conversion of my existing truck might be more logical.

 

[heimlaga]

I rekon those of us who aren't rich will be forced to go back to woodgas conversions if oil based fuels are banned. Chevrolet Scotsdale and Volvo 245 are popular models for such conversions but I fear they will be in short supply at that stage. What then?

It takes between 15 and 20 years for a car or van or pickup to pass far enough down the food chain to become available to a workig class family who also wants to own a small house and who are not into loaning way more than they can pay back. The avarage market value of cars/vans/pickups in use in Finland is 3000 euros because that is what the average family can afford.
Will one of those fancy electrc cars be possible and economically viable to keep running when it is let's say 25 years old? They say the battery packs alone cost many thousand euros and last less than 10 years. What then?
An old hot bulb engine running on waste oil mixed with black lye driving a generator all mounted on a trailer towed by the "electric" car?
Home built steam waggons?
Or.........

 

[Artiglio]

Reading the last few pages it would seem that a euro 6 ice vehicle with a battery capable of covering 50 miles would be the solution for many people. Linked to an intelligent sat nav that determined when the electric drive takes over and controls recharging when using the petrol / diesel.
Effectively the ICE runs outside of emission control zones, 50 miles would deal with a huge percentage of most vehicles daily use. The ICE giving a range of around 400 miles. If such a vehicle existed and had a future it’d be something i’d look at.
But surely any notions of cost savings in the longterm are pointless, at some point HMG is going to want to recover the lost fuel taxes for my car they stand at very roughly 6 pence a mile, if people put sucha figure into their cost calcs , how does it work out?

 

[Just4Fun]

They say the battery packs alone cost many thousand euros and last less than 10 years.

I don't think that is quite right. Yes, I believe battery packs are (likely to be) expensive, but the "last less than 10 years" is perhaps misunderstood. From what I can see, manufacturers provide a guarantee on the battery packs of say 8 years. What they actually guarantee is that after that time the battery capacity will be at least X% of the new capacity. Perhaps 75% or 80%. It doesn't mean the battery pack is useless when old, it is just that the capacity (and so the vehicle range) is reduced.

That said, you make a valid point about many/most people not being able to afford an EV, even when the vehicle is older. To add to that, many people who currently run old cars keep them going by doing maintenance & repairs themselves. I don't know how feasible that might be on an EV - although to offset this there should be less to go wrong on an EV.

My son is a student. I bought him a 2003 VW Bora for 600 or 700 euro. All it needed was a new exhaust box. There is no way he could have an EV; they are way out of the price range.

 

[Terry - Somerset]

There is a danger that we confuse the issues with respect to EVs and are selective in the data used to justify an opinion.

Cost - this is about government taxation and subsidy policy. To encourage uptake of EVs (rigtly or wrongly) subsidies support the costs of purchase, oil is taxed but not electricity for recharging.

Longer term lost tax revenue will need to be recovered if the transition to EV happens as planned. The general level of taxation could be increased, but it may be more likely through motoring taxes.

Environment - there seems little doubt that EVs is urban areas improve air quality. Whether overall pollution is reduced depends on how the electricity is generated.

Pollution is generated in the manufacturing process. I am unconvinced that a complete analysis exists as it needs to include:

• whole lifecycle impacts including end of life and recycling
• equipment in the manufacturing process, not just those embedded in the vehicle.

Performance - EVs are improving at a rapid rate - reduced battery costs and weight, battery technologies, increased range, faster recharging.

There are issues around short term recharging capacity. Longer term it is not a barrier - solved over time and with investment.

There will inevitably be some who cannot easily transition to EV even assuming improvements to current constraints - due to where they live and possibly nature of requirement (eg: farming).

84% of the UK population live in urban areas. Those living in genuinely rmote remote locations (eg 20+ miles from the nearest small town) are less than 2-3%.

 

[beech1948]

Yesterday I took delivery of my swapped Tesla from one of my Techs. We had to have a meeting to do the swap as he explained a few things about the Tesla. That is:-

1) I need to have at least 5 or better 7 credit card ready accounts with charger station suppliers. What.!! It seems once I am off the very well beaten Mway lines of traffic chargers are less available so I need to be ready. Oh Well
2) I need at least 2 adaptors from non Tesla sources to Tesla
3) When travelling over 250 miles in Winter the cold will curtail the battery performance somewhat so I need to be ready to plan my stops and take time out (What !!) to recharge the batteries...of the battery not for me.
4) I need to build a mental map of overall weight in the vehicle vs distance to be covered to make sure I plan recharging well.
5) I need tree different apps to try to find all of the chargers out there....What !!

Tom did say he still thought it was brilliant. My somewhat ironic face expression probably cause him to worry.

So next week sees me doing about 800 miles as I have to visit customers for 3 days, and a trip of 170 miles each way to visit family.

Still excited to see how the Tesla shapes up.

Does anyone know if Tesla has estimated a miles per gallon equivalent for their cars.

 

[D_W]

Yesterday I took delivery of my swapped Tesla from one of my Techs. We had to have a meeting to do the swap as he explained a few things about the Tesla. That is:-

1) I need to have at least 5 or better 7 credit card ready accounts with charger station suppliers. What.!! It seems once I am off the very well beaten Mway lines of traffic chargers are less available so I need to be ready. Oh Well
2) I need at least 2 adaptors from non Tesla sources to Tesla
3) When travelling over 250 miles in Winter the cold will curtail the battery performance somewhat so I need to be ready to plan my stops and take time out (What !!) to recharge the batteries...of the battery not for me.
4) I need to build a mental map of overall weight in the vehicle vs distance to be covered to make sure I plan recharging well.
5) I need tree different apps to try to find all of the chargers out there....What !!

Tom did say he still thought it was brilliant. My somewhat ironic face expression probably cause him to worry.

So next week sees me doing about 800 miles as I have to visit customers for 3 days, and a trip of 170 miles each way to visit family.

Still excited to see how the Tesla shapes up.

Does anyone know if Tesla has estimated a miles per gallon equivalent for their cars.

KW/hrs. BIL uses about 0.3kw/hr per mile on average in his model 3. His utility rate is 11 cents, so a little over 3 cents a mile. Typical 30mpg combo gas car (which is really an econo car here unless you only have flat drives with no stops) would be 8-12 cents a mile depending on the gas price at any given time.

Typical gallon of gasoline is about 33.7kw/hr (us gallon) and 20-35 efficiency on cars. Shoot the middle and you get about 9kw/hr of converted energy to the road in a gas car and the tesla comes out to about..

wait for it....30 miles per gallon. Not a big surprise.

The trouble with the comparison is that it doesn't waste the other 24-25kw of energy that a gas car discharges into thermal energy, so you could look at it more as some large fraction of 112 miles per gallon (there must be 10-20% lost in distribution of electricity and charging).

Electricity generation here does, of course, create more thermal energy than electricity, but the fuels to generate electricity are majority natural gas, and then coal/nuclear are probably coming close to even and then all the rest. Very little liquid fuel.

 

[heimlaga]

I don't think that is quite right. Yes, I believe battery packs are (likely to be) expensive, but the "last less than 10 years" is perhaps misunderstood. From what I can see, manufacturers provide a guarantee on the battery packs of say 8 years. What they actually guarantee is that after that time the battery capacity will be at least X% of the new capacity. Perhaps 75% or 80%. It doesn't mean the battery pack is useless when old, it is just that the capacity (and so the vehicle range) is reduced.

That said, you make a valid point about many/most people not being able to afford an EV, even when the vehicle is older. To add to that, many people who currently run old cars keep them going by doing maintenance & repairs themselves. I don't know how feasible that might be on an EV - although to offset this there should be less to go wrong on an EV.

My son is a student. I bought him a 2003 VW Bora for 600 or 700 euro. All it needed was a new exhaust box. There is no way he could have an EV; they are way out of the price range.

I just wonder how a 30 years old battery pack will work in -40 degrees celsius.............
Because I am one of those who can afford to own a car because the car is old and financially speaking worthless and I do roughly 80% of the repair myself. Without a car I would also be without a job.

I am fully aware that there is an urgent need to cut down the consumption of fossile fuels. I just don't thing the solution is as simple as they say.

 

[D_W]

I just wonder how a 30 years old battery pack will work in -40 degrees celsius.............
Because I am one of those who can afford to own a car because the car is old and financially speaking worthless and I do roughly 80% of the repair myself. Without a car I would also be without a job.

I am fully aware that there is an urgent need to cut down the consumption of fossile fuels. I just don't thing the solution is as simple as they say.

Something will have to change between then and now for that to even happen. The packs condition themselves in terms of temperature (and maybe humidity?). The pack would expend energy to keep itself conditioned so that it doesn't get used when it's cold (and damage itself).

More likely if the 30 year old cells still work that they'll be grid tied, though and if you had some stroke of luck to have any car made these days last 30 years (I don't see it working on them with all of their plastic and cheap PCBs vs. much more stainless and fewer PCBs in cars 30 years ago), you'd have a newer pack in it by then.

Cars will be modular. Unless there's a legislative issue, you'll probably be able to repair a two decade old electric car the same as you do your car. Think of it this way - the cars will have to come with software and guidance to fix them so that everyone doesn't have to be the best mechanic within 100 miles. You'll have the car, the info and you'll fix it.

 

[Just4Fun]

I just wonder how a 30 years old battery pack will work in -40 degrees celsius.............

Impossible to say, so let's guess ...

It seems a battery pack should have, say, 80% of its original capacity after 8 years. If (big assumption) it continues to loose 20% of its capacity every 8 years then it might have 40% to 45% of its original capacity after 30 years.

Recently in this thread we have discussed how much range of a (new) battery pack might degrade in real winter conditions. Hard data is difficult to come by but I suspect range could drop by 50% to 80% when it is very cold. After 30 years that would mean losing, say, 70% of the remaining 45% in the battery, leaving not much over 30%.

This means a car with a 250 km summer-time range when new today might have a range of 75 km in 30 years. In winter you won't want to risk getting stranded so maybe that means not attempting any trip in excess of, say, 40km.

Obviously these figures are just guesses and any similarity to reality is probably coincidence. If anyone has any better figures I would be interested to know them. Anyway, the calculation is not encouraging. Besides being guesses though I think these figures are meaningless because I seriously doubt if any battery will last 30 years.

 

[D_W]

If batteries have environmental conditioning (that is, they're kept corrosion free and temperature conditioned like tesla does), I'd imagine you're going to find that they will still have a reasonable amount of capacity at 30 years.

I believe tesla's target was about 180k miles in the S to have batteries with 90% of capacity remaining (which I've read tesla considering a good point to target). There was a taxi company in malaysia using S's (why, I don't know - the S has a poor reliability history, but we're just talking about the batteries - maybe the cars are a status symbol). When you read accounts from S owners, the consensus seems to be far more than 180K miles before reaching the 90% target. How far off of 90% does a large battery need to go before it's not useful for household? If you end up with a 75-100kw/hr pack, if it even has half capacity and is still working reliably, it'll be useful.

The next generation of tesla batteries are supposedly good for 1000 full charging cycles, still meeting the 90% capacity target (half million mile battery claim due to this for the pickup, and million for the trucks when they start producing them). If there is a stationary system that can manage the used packs, I can't imagine a market won't organize for them.

The comment above re: environmental, lots of assumptions are involved. I've seen studies claiming 150k miles for environmental equivalence (usually from an org. that caters to the petroleum industry) accounting for all of the components as well as the energy use (that is, the pollution in making the batteries is accounted for). I saw a german study that was a bit more independent years ago where the authors expected to show that battery cars are bigger polluters, but concluded breakeven on pollution around 100k km/ or just over 60k miles.

That will probably continue to improve.

The mistake that we all make looking at this (I don't, but many here are making the mistake) is assuming that looking at a current snapshot of electric cars is something that can be overlayed over the next several decades. I don't think the industry for used packs is particularly large yet, and have seen more FYI videos about disposal of used batteries than recycling. But the batteries will change and if there is economic interest in reuse or recycling, that will, too.

I'd have to imagine that a stationary pack with more gradual demand on power than a car, and steady environmental conditions will be pretty easy to use for a long time.

I got two articles this morning that Toyota and VW will have solid state batteries in use starting in 2021, with more widespread distribution by 2025. There's also huge money being spent in battery technology that was never spent before almost solely due to Musk expediting the initial work and creating demand due to widespread recognition.

As to the comment above about loss of road or fuel taxes. We hear this all the time in the US. Quite often, the road taxes pay for little of the road maintenance here and often have been diverted elsewhere. On top of that, I haven't seen too many governmental entities that aren't good at creating new revenue sources. That whole discussion is just a diversion - if there is a need for revenue, once there is market saturation, it'll be collected one way or another.

 

[Lons]

The trouble with all of that DW is that the words "I imagine" pop up several times and as none of us know what will happen, all we can do is speculate.
I recently read a "real driving conditions" comparison between main brands and models comparing range and as an example the three Tesla models didn't fare any better than several others being between 204 and 257 miles, the Audi, Mercedes, jaguar (all SUVs) performed equally as well and a decent range if I'm honest though clearly less in poor weather, not that we get that in the UK. Of course just one test so not conclusive.

"The next generation of tesla batteries are supposedly good for 1000 full charging cycles, still meeting the 90% capacity target (half million mile battery claim due to this for the pickup, and million for the trucks when they start producing them)"

Is that accurate? Even if the unrealistic range of 300 miles is used then 300 x 1000 full charges = 300,000 not half a million and as fast charging and other issues affect battery life then being sceptical I seriously doubt their claims.

I'm not sure whether comparisons can really be made between US and UK revenues e.g. UK road tax currently raises around £40 billion pa which equates to 5% of government revenue or £750 per UK adult. Added to that fuel duty is another £28 billion which splits to 58p per litre in duty plus 20% vat on the total so 62% of what we pay for every litre is tax. With the onset of BEVs that revenue is going to reduce drastically and all on top of a huge hole in finances under the banner of Covid-19 so it will have to be found somewhere and once we are mostly in electric vehicles to use your own words I imagine the cost of keeping them on the road witll rockets skywards.

 

[Rorschach]

No doubt there is going to have to be a "per mile" charge for electric vehicles very soon.

 

[Droogs]

I think you will find it will be all vehicles that will have to pay a per mile charge. This will be on top of any tax paid during your cars refuilling process regardless of what that "fuel" may be. I also believe that, that cost will be much higher for dinoburners than it will be for dodgems. Carbon Zero 2050 being the main hidden prompt for this as the biggest, quickest, easiest reduction to show and brag about will be a reduction due to change of car usage. I truly do think ICE cars will be made deliberately and totally unviable in an economic sense for the average to lower income brackets to force them to use non polluting public transport

 

[Rorschach]

I think you will find it will be all vehicles that will have to pay a per mile charge. This will be on top of any tax paid during your cars refuilling process regardless of what that "fuel" may be. I also believe that, that cost will be much higher for dinoburners than it will be for dodgems. Carbon Zero 2050 being the main hidden prompt for this as the biggest, quickest, easiest reduction to show and brag about will be a reduction due to change of car usage. I truly do think ICE cars will be made deliberately and totally unviable in an economic sense for the average to lower income brackets to force them to use non polluting public transport

Well ICE users already pay per mile basically in the form of fuel duty, the more you drive the more you pay and you are incentivised to get a more economical vehicle in the same way. It's a fairly good system really when you think about it.

I don't think ICE users (who in future are more likely to be low earners in the working class) will be unduly penalised as it is counter productive for the government. If you force workers out of their cars you either must provide better public transport (costly) or you force them out of work and if they are out of work they are a drain on the economy.

Things should continue much as they are for now, incentives for switching helping bring the costs down then gradually reducing those incentives as EV's become the norm and the second hand market increases. Incentives then move to scrappage schemes for older ICE vehicles. Finally penalties at the end for ICE users with commercial use exempt until suitable vehicles have emerged for that part of the economy.
Not sure about rural users, that would be trickier as public transport is not a viable option there.

 

[beech1948]

Made my first journey by EV today after the handover from Tom.

Just about magic for the journey. The drawbacks were few and possibly self made. For example I found myself the night before the journey fussing to charge the Tesla from my household supply. Took 6 hrs to go from 45% charge to 95%. I only popped out to check about 12 times....me anxious..nah !!. The rest of the evening was spent checking that I had accounts with at least 5 charging providers; loading 3 Charger point apps on my phone; and poring over these charger point maps and real maps like Christopher Columbus setting off the discover the New World.

Today's journey of 87 miles each way was accomplished.........without any drama at all other than my raised heart rate and blood pressure. So far so good and a very interesting talking point with clients who are all curious to see what their car fleet managers are going to do in the next 2 years.

Car is on charge tonight ready for tomorrows 164 miles each way. So I will soon get to check out the charging infrastructure in the UK.