Electric vehicles
- Thread starter Woodchips2
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The trouble with all of that DW is that the words "I imagine" pop up several times and as none of us know what will happen, all we can do is speculate.
I recently read a "real driving conditions" comparison between main brands and models comparing range and as an example the three Tesla models didn't fare any better than several others being between 204 and 257 miles, the Audi, Mercedes, jaguar (all SUVs) performed equally as well and a decent range if I'm honest though clearly less in poor weather, not that we get that in the UK.Of course just one test so not conclusive.
"The next generation of tesla batteries are supposedly good for 1000 full charging cycles, still meeting the 90% capacity target (half million mile battery claim due to this for the pickup, and million for the trucks when they start producing them)"
Is that accurate? Even if the unrealistic range of 300 miles is used then 300 x 1000 full charges = 300,000 not half a million and as fast charging and other issues affect battery life then being sceptical I seriously doubt their claims.
I'm not sure whether comparisons can really be made between US and UK revenues e.g. UK road tax currently raises around £40 billion pa which equates to 5% of government revenue or £750 per UK adult. Added to that fuel duty is another £28 billion which splits to 58p per litre in duty plus 20% vat on the total so 62% of what we pay for every litre is tax. With the onset of BEVs that revenue is going to reduce drastically and all on top of a huge hole in finances under the banner of Covid-19 so it will have to be found somewhere and once we are mostly in electric vehicles to use your own words I imagine the cost of keeping them on the road witll rockets skywards.
re: the batteries - the million mile claim is for heavy trucks. Musk has an objective of getting a 1000 mile range so that no matter what the conditions, the average US driver (must take breaks at 10 hours) wouldn't be able to outlast their battery. You could say "what about the driver who ignores the rules?" In a fleet, this doesn't occur in the US as the freight haulers are using electronic logs and extra surveillance to avoid regulatory trouble. If a "drop" comes up short of the recipient, the national carriers will send another driver who is not on break to exchange the trailer.
At any rate, to me, that makes the batteries half a million miles in their proposed truck (500 mile range or something like that). Energy density of the batteries is the catch for large trucks - cost has declined fast, but energy density is increasing slower than cost is declining (we have strict weight limits on the roads here - trucks already do more than 90% of road damage based on weight, which is another interesting aspect of the road tax talk- similar to guilting people out of applying fert or chem to their lawns to "save bay areas". Lawns have relatively little runoff compared to naked farming fields, and farms already use 12 times more fert and chem than lawns (guilting people about "damaging roads" with cars over gas taxes on PHEVs is kind of pointless here as the cars aren't doing the damage - thus since there's more road mileage here, the weight limits and fines for exceeding them is strict. If the batteries in a truck weigh 6k pounds, that's a problem as a lot of the heavy loads are closer to the weight limit than 6k).
Anyway, yes on the other comparisons. Gas taxes here are variable, but in my state, they're about 58 cents per gallon of gas. There's a handy site in the states that details how much of the road taxes on fuel actually go to roads. Overall, 70% of road maintenance is paid for elsewhere out of other revenues, and in some states, the "road tax" doesn't go to roads at all - it's just assessed because the states can even though they don't need the dedicated revenue for roads. In others, all of it does. If EVs become a large part of road mileage, the change in revenue source will be quick as construction contracts for infrastructure are not that variable and nobody who cuts infrastructure work will get reelected. It ends up in commercials, even if the commercials can be intellectually dishonest.
I think the biggest risk in all of this as all we can do is speculate is talk about wet cell batteries being used in cars in 30 years - i doubt they will be. Actually, I doubt the majority of miles will even be ridden in cars that we own in 30 years. It'll be cheaper to have a charger fleet of cars and dial up a ride from an app. We have two cars, and I'm guessing in a two income household in the UK ,that's also common. If I could dial up a car, I'd be comfortable having only one car that we own.
As for audi, mercedes and jaguar making EVs -I see that a lot of the luxury names are headed toward EVs (tesla has really screwed up their market here as an S or X is often cheaper than a comparable fossil vehicle and the buyers of those cars don't care much about longevity or reliability. If they did, nobody would've sold a V8 BMW, mercedes or any audi here in the last 20 years). Cadillac notified that they are headed to all- EV in the future and offered to buy out dealers who don't like that (that'll be interesting - cadillac has not built a reliable car in 3 decades, so I don't know why we'd expect they could build a reliable EV unless it's just a GM platform with a different skin dropped over it, with different gauges and seat materials). I'll be surprised if any of them can build a reliable car - so far, only the model 3 is putting together reasonable data, and it didn't at first.
re: the range - if they are rated at 300 and people driving on the highway or intermittently get 200, their range anxiety will be resolved as the packs in the cars go toward double that rating. I'm sure there will still be complaints then. Tesla built the first car that was rated to go 200, which was said to be impractical. They have one now rated at 398, which probably equates to 300 actual in regular use. It'll keep going up as capacity keeps declining.
Lons
Established Member
As I said it's all speculation though there is little doubt it will be a very different motoring world in 30 years time I seriously doubt the 10 year target will be met in the UK, I wouldn't presume to speculate on the US situation.
I'm not sure how your point on how much of the revenue is actually spent on road maintenance is relevant as it matters not one jot. It's the same in the UK with revenues being swallowed up in general, what matters and was my point is that in the UK and I imagine the US, there will be a huge hole in government revenues due to the shift to BEVs, I think that's pretty much a given and the motorist in the UK has usually been an easy target so as said it's highly probable that the cost of running a BEV will in due course skyrocket. The government whoever they are have to get it back from somewhere and their track records in doing so are very well established.
My argument isn't against electric vehicles or pro ICE far from it though I know it will be much further down the line before I switch and even longer for my wife as I've just changed her petrol Mini for new one and I explained previously my reasons for that. If I go even further I bought a £70k motorhome two years ago with a Euro 6 diesel engine and have no intention of swapping that, even if I could afford to for obvious reasons, I also own another small vehicle related to that which I'm likely to keep until it falls apart which will be a long way into the future.
I'm not sure how your point on how much of the revenue is actually spent on road maintenance is relevant as it matters not one jot. It's the same in the UK with revenues being swallowed up in general, what matters and was my point is that in the UK and I imagine the US, there will be a huge hole in government revenues due to the shift to BEVs, I think that's pretty much a given and the motorist in the UK has usually been an easy target so as said it's highly probable that the cost of running a BEV will in due course skyrocket. The government whoever they are have to get it back from somewhere and their track records in doing so are very well established.
My argument isn't against electric vehicles or pro ICE far from it though I know it will be much further down the line before I switch and even longer for my wife as I've just changed her petrol Mini for new one and I explained previously my reasons for that. If I go even further I bought a £70k motorhome two years ago with a Euro 6 diesel engine and have no intention of swapping that, even if I could afford to for obvious reasons, I also own another small vehicle related to that which I'm likely to keep until it falls apart which will be a long way into the future.
Trickier for those of us with ageing vehicles now though and needing to think about when to change it.
Terry - Somerset
Established Member
Second hand ICE vehicles are likely to be around until around 2040.
Assuming assuming the transition to EV happens as planned appox 50% of vehicles on the road will be EV and 50% ICE.
It really isn't worth worrying about what may happen in the future - by 2030 there will be a full choice of EVs or ICE to choose from ranging in price from ~£1k up as at present.
Assuming assuming the transition to EV happens as planned appox 50% of vehicles on the road will be EV and 50% ICE.
It really isn't worth worrying about what may happen in the future - by 2030 there will be a full choice of EVs or ICE to choose from ranging in price from ~£1k up as at present.
Lons
Established Member
Not really if you need an ICE there as there are and will be plenty of choice for some years yet though there's every chance IMO that good s/h models will hold their value as availability declines.
That's my point, if you have an ageing ICE car and are on a budget, when do you change? The car will need to last long enough until a 2nd hand EV is affordable.
When is the UK supposedly phasing out the ICE new cars?
California is going to do that according to them by 2030 or 2035. That generally means there will be decent used ICE cars until 2045 or 2050. I'm sure there will be a low income waiver or purchase assistance for an electric car (But there will be dirtbags who spring up with everything under the sun on payment plans for people who don't understand how detrimental it is to put everything on a payment).
A friend and I at work talk about this. The most small time crookery always seems to be done among small timers. Like robberies - robbery here in the states is generally common in areas where people have near nothing. The thieves know it's easier to get away with, but it doesn't make a whole lot of sense (they should just get an MBA and file for regulatory approval for some kind of car repair warranty or oddball small loan - they'd make more money).
Lons
Established Member
Ok you didn't understand my reply. If you need an ICE rather than a BEV then being on a budget you can buy a used model for as long as they remain available and roadworthy which will be many years after the switch to new electric cars in 2030, if it actually happens. If you want to buy ICE new then until December 2029 or while still available prior to that. Simples. Used electric vehicle availability is anyone's guess.
Lons
Established Member
DW
The stated target date in the UK recently was brought forward from 2040 to 2030 however 10 years in politics is a lifetime and governments have a habbit of doing a U turn or quietly forgetting policies.
The stated target date in the UK recently was brought forward from 2040 to 2030 however 10 years in politics is a lifetime and governments have a habbit of doing a U turn or quietly forgetting policies.
No I understood your reply, the question was somewhat rhetorical though, I wasn't expecting you to have the answer.
Two...Three... Four... OK, FIVE thoughts (speculation) on the matter...
1. Eventual charging on the fly via wireless charging. Something between scalextric and a modern mobile phone. I think we're stuck thinking like fossil fuel users, for something that is entirely different. New roads will likely have power grids built in.
2. Tax, with all the duty lost on petrol and diesel, the cheap running of EVs will likely be overshadowed by huge hikes in tax on electricity.
3. Conversion of old vehicles is already a thing, so it'll will likely become much cheaper to change over without rushing out to spend £80k on a new car.
4. All vehicles will be used as electrical storage devices, power will flow in either direction depending on demand and usage. Handy for those who invest in solar and wind generation currently.
5. The 10 - 90% charging dilemma, it's likely they'll change the way it's displayed/used if they're not already doing so. An electronic cut-off at 10% whilst displaying 0%, to increase longevity (because *some* people are stupid)
1. Eventual charging on the fly via wireless charging. Something between scalextric and a modern mobile phone. I think we're stuck thinking like fossil fuel users, for something that is entirely different. New roads will likely have power grids built in.
2. Tax, with all the duty lost on petrol and diesel, the cheap running of EVs will likely be overshadowed by huge hikes in tax on electricity.
3. Conversion of old vehicles is already a thing, so it'll will likely become much cheaper to change over without rushing out to spend £80k on a new car.
4. All vehicles will be used as electrical storage devices, power will flow in either direction depending on demand and usage. Handy for those who invest in solar and wind generation currently.
5. The 10 - 90% charging dilemma, it's likely they'll change the way it's displayed/used if they're not already doing so. An electronic cut-off at 10% whilst displaying 0%, to increase longevity (because *some* people are stupid)
Agree. Being bold about something that someone else is responsible for completing is a hallmark of politicians, as is glossing over something when it doesn't work out.
My point about revenues may have been partially incomplete. Yes, there will be a hole in revenue collected. Since there is no history of our revenue sources being properly dedicated, when there is an additional need, the rates collected elsewhere will go up.
In the us, the average road tax per passenger car is probably $250 per car. They'll split the new tax revenue among different sources to make up for it. Probably an increase in utility rate taxes, an increase in the licensing costs for a car and a direct assessment on electric cars by the mile. The government here is proficient at that.
Terry - Somerset
Established Member
There are no hypothecated taxes in the UK so far as I am aware. The closest we get is the BBC licence fee!
All taxes effectively end up in a big Treasury pot, and are then allocated to different uses reflecting a mix of:
- strategy - eg: promote transition to EVs
- political dogma - eg: public services vs free market
- public need - eg: state funded education, what are the needs
- modify behaviours - eg: high taxes on tobacco products
- perceived fairness - there needs to be broad public support
How the reduction in fuel revenues will be recovered from the public is just speculation. It could be through road charging, annual licence fees, increased energy taxation, VAT, national insurance etc.
The list is endless, but they are unlikely to pass up the opportunity to "fairly" raise taxes given the financial stress the public sector is under.
All taxes effectively end up in a big Treasury pot, and are then allocated to different uses reflecting a mix of:
- strategy - eg: promote transition to EVs
- political dogma - eg: public services vs free market
- public need - eg: state funded education, what are the needs
- modify behaviours - eg: high taxes on tobacco products
- perceived fairness - there needs to be broad public support
How the reduction in fuel revenues will be recovered from the public is just speculation. It could be through road charging, annual licence fees, increased energy taxation, VAT, national insurance etc.
The list is endless, but they are unlikely to pass up the opportunity to "fairly" raise taxes given the financial stress the public sector is under.
Woody2Shoes
Impressive Member
Re. point 1 the international standards are now agreed for wireless EV charging and BMW already offers it as an option - I think we can expect price and availability to improve quickly over the short term:
That's currently static charging, mobile charging will take over. You'll never need to exit your vehicle to recharge. It'll be a major selling point in colder and wetter climates. Although it will likely encourage excessive extra journeys too. Think teenagers with access to parent's credit facilities. (still unproven)
beech1948
Established Member
Yesterday I completed my second EV trip in the Tesla. 349 miles each way with an overnight stay....due to my decrepitude.
Covered 245 miles after leaving home....impressed. Pulled into the Mway services ( not named or shamed) and found that all 8 of the Tesla chargers were occupied....had a coffee and a bun...went back out and found a charging slot. Whilst charging I had a walk around and saw 6 other chargers ( non-Tesla) but 2 of them were not working.??
Time to recharge 55 minutes. That's a long time to sit, read the paper, get laptop out and deal with emails. Total stop 72 minutes. Finished journey at clients only to find nearest charger was 2 miles away and non-Tesla. Called up my hotel to see what they had or what was near them and they had a 2 chargers with 2 more within 1 miles.....tried to reserve one...no luck just pot luck. Arrived at Hotel and parked by a charger and plugged in....now both chargers were occupied. Time to charge to at least 80% 4 hrs. Time allowed by charger company to be connected 2 hrs so had to come out again at around 9:30 ish to buy another charging session. Went out at 11:40 to disconnect and move car so someone else could use it if needed.
Return journey stopped at services ...there were 10 Tesla chargers, 4 non-Tesla and all worked. Total stop 50 minutes.
WHAT have we learned. ??
1) Driving an EV is a CULTURAL shift. Its not mechanical, technical or electrical its cultural. They are all just sources of power.
2) Change to journey times is not disastrous but requires more time to be taken so progress is slower. Whether that is a good or bad thing is not my judgement except to say that a customer waiting an extra 72 minutes ++ for my tech to charge may be a step too far for them.
3) I'm surprised that chargers can be out of service. As the prime source of revenue I would expect them to be rapidly repaired. My first service stop indicated that the non-Tesla chargers had been unavailable for 10 days or so.....not really good enough.
4) My next step is to try to research the TOTAL cost of an EV..car, maintenance,power station, transmission of power etc...be interesting to see the comparison to ICE
Friday we have a trip to see family in Bristol before Berkshire is raised to Tier 3 on Saturday and Bristol is reduced to Tier 2.
Thursdays journey was just 45 miles each way so no need to recharge.
Covered 245 miles after leaving home....impressed. Pulled into the Mway services ( not named or shamed) and found that all 8 of the Tesla chargers were occupied....had a coffee and a bun...went back out and found a charging slot. Whilst charging I had a walk around and saw 6 other chargers ( non-Tesla) but 2 of them were not working.??
Time to recharge 55 minutes. That's a long time to sit, read the paper, get laptop out and deal with emails. Total stop 72 minutes. Finished journey at clients only to find nearest charger was 2 miles away and non-Tesla. Called up my hotel to see what they had or what was near them and they had a 2 chargers with 2 more within 1 miles.....tried to reserve one...no luck just pot luck. Arrived at Hotel and parked by a charger and plugged in....now both chargers were occupied. Time to charge to at least 80% 4 hrs. Time allowed by charger company to be connected 2 hrs so had to come out again at around 9:30 ish to buy another charging session. Went out at 11:40 to disconnect and move car so someone else could use it if needed.
Return journey stopped at services ...there were 10 Tesla chargers, 4 non-Tesla and all worked. Total stop 50 minutes.
WHAT have we learned. ??
1) Driving an EV is a CULTURAL shift. Its not mechanical, technical or electrical its cultural. They are all just sources of power.
2) Change to journey times is not disastrous but requires more time to be taken so progress is slower. Whether that is a good or bad thing is not my judgement except to say that a customer waiting an extra 72 minutes ++ for my tech to charge may be a step too far for them.
3) I'm surprised that chargers can be out of service. As the prime source of revenue I would expect them to be rapidly repaired. My first service stop indicated that the non-Tesla chargers had been unavailable for 10 days or so.....not really good enough.
4) My next step is to try to research the TOTAL cost of an EV..car, maintenance,power station, transmission of power etc...be interesting to see the comparison to ICE
Friday we have a trip to see family in Bristol before Berkshire is raised to Tier 3 on Saturday and Bristol is reduced to Tier 2.
Thursdays journey was just 45 miles each way so no need to recharge.
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pe2dave
Established Member
Most off putting for me?
The motor mfc's can't agree on a common plug.
'kin disgusting IMHO.
I do hope they'll live to regret it. Until then, I'll stay with petrol
The motor mfc's can't agree on a common plug.
'kin disgusting IMHO.
I do hope they'll live to regret it. Until then, I'll stay with petrol
Tesla's superior and exclusive charging network gives them a significant marketing advantage over other mfrs. If they didn't have a unique plug Tesla drivers would forever be finding that superchargers are full of other brands plugged in and wondering why they're not working.
@beech1948
Thank you for the "real world" experience you shared there.
Thank you for the "real world" experience you shared there.
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