Who is in and who is out?

[Jake]

Has anyone done a computer simulation of what happens to your economy and society in general if you leave and what happens if you stay?
Sort of best case/ worst case scenarios.
There are so many variables to consider, I fear it is beyond the grasp of a normal person.
Being from a non EU country, I haven't been following this issue very closely, but I have the impression that
personal preferences, politicians and the media are skewing any analytical/ pragmatic take on the matter.

There have been countless simulations from both sides but none are conclusive since they depend on the initial data being fed in and whether or not the 'other' side, as it were, accepts that data.

There has been more (and better) debate around this issue in this thread then in most newspapers apart from, perhaps, the FT !

More accurately there have been countless simulations, nearly all of which point to negative outcomes, but all such studies rest on assumptions and data which can be questioned and can form the basis of accusations of bias from the side which does not accept the consensus (whether that be for genuine or propaganda reasons).

 

[Jake]

The prevailing wind direction in the UK is from the South West. Last time I checked, Eastern Europe was, um, to the east of us.

Remember Chernobyl ? It didn't matter where the prevailing wind direction was that day, it still made a mess of the North Wales sheep farming industry for many years.
The UK has a interest in nuclear safety across Europe. Pollution doesn't stop at a border control.

I think he was pulling my leg.

 

[Cheshirechappie]

Hmm - accountable to governments is not the same thing as accountable to ordinary people. It's not beyond the wit of man to devise a system whereby the principal decision-makers are elected by and accountable to the people over whom they govern.

That's called a state. The EU cannot be as directly democratic as a state unless we turn it into one. That's not a popular option.

The EU has chosen a system in which that is not possible. Hence, it isn't as democratic as Westminster

Chosen is the wrong word - it is a creature of its member states, and hence is controlled primarily by their democratically elected governments through delegated shared sovereignty (with a double-lock veto from the directly elected representative MEPs). That doesn't make it non-democratic, just a supranational organisation and not a state.

All that rather proves my point. We (the plebs) elect those who govern at Westminster, but we (the plebs) don't elect those who govern in Brussels.

Whether of not it's a 'state' or a 'supranational organisation' is a difference without a distinction in the case of the EU. It seeks to control aspects of our lives, so it's a government by whatever name it might be called.

I value freedom, and democracy is a cornerstone of freedom. History shows us that trade and commerce thrive better under democratic systems of government than they do under less democratic systems of government - the current difference in economic growth and performance between the Eurozone and non-Eurozone economies such as the UK's being one illustration. The Westminster government is more democratic than the Brussels one, and thus I think more likely to lead to a prosperous future than Brussels, hence my decision to vote leave.

 

[Rhossydd]

It would be interesting to hear how many going on about the lack of accountability and democracy have ever done anything more than turn up at a ballot station every few years.

Policies get made and changed by lobbying and direct contact. I'd guess only a very, very tiny minority ever have bothered actually engaging in the process and discovering how well it works.

 

[RogerS]

The prevailing wind direction in the UK is from the South West. Last time I checked, Eastern Europe was, um, to the east of us.

Remember Chernobyl ? It didn't matter where the prevailing wind direction was that day, it still made a mess of the North Wales sheep farming industry for many years.
The UK has a interest in nuclear safety across Europe. Pollution doesn't stop at a border control.

<sigh> Jake specifically wrote 'downwind' and that was what I was commenting on. Please read and consider first before jumping in with both feet.
Capisce?

 

[Jake]

Hmm - accountable to governments is not the same thing as accountable to ordinary people. It's not beyond the wit of man to devise a system whereby the principal decision-makers are elected by and accountable to the people over whom they govern.

That's called a state. The EU cannot be as directly democratic as a state unless we turn it into one. That's not a popular option.

The EU has chosen a system in which that is not possible. Hence, it isn't as democratic as Westminster

Chosen is the wrong word - it is a creature of its member states, and hence is controlled primarily by their democratically elected governments through delegated shared sovereignty (with a double-lock veto from the directly elected representative MEPs). That doesn't make it non-democratic, just a supranational organisation and not a state.

All that rather proves my point. We (the plebs) elect those who govern at Westminster, but we (the plebs) don't elect those who govern in Brussels.

Whether of not it's a 'state' or a 'supranational organisation' is a difference without a distinction in the case of the EU. It seeks to control aspects of our lives, so it's a government by whatever name it might be called.

I value freedom, and democracy is a cornerstone of freedom. History shows us that trade and commerce thrive better under democratic systems of government than they do under less democratic systems of government - the current difference in economic growth and performance between the Eurozone and non-Eurozone economies such as the UK's being one illustration. The Westminster government is more democratic than the Brussels one, and thus I think more likely to lead to a prosperous future than Brussels, hence my decision to vote leave.

We do control them, as the people who make the decisions and govern are the Council (ie representatives of the elected national government) or elected MEPs. But anyway, your mind is made up whatever the facts.

 

[RobinBHM]

Has anyone done a computer simulation of what happens to your economy and society in general if you leave and what happens if you stay?
Sort of best case/ worst case scenarios.
There are so many variables to consider, I fear it is beyond the grasp of a normal person.
Being from a non EU country, I haven't been following this issue very closely, but I have the impression that
personal preferences, politicians and the media are skewing any analytical/ pragmatic take on the matter.

Open Europe have given a Brexit forecast for Gdp in 2030 to be in range from -2.2% to +1.6% or they say the politically most likely range is from -0.8% to +0.6%

http://openeurope.org.uk/intelligence/b ... -a-brexit/

You are right, there are so many variables thst makes it almost kmpossible to predict. What does seem clear though is that if a Brexit happens, the UK's future economy depends on the will of politicians to create a deregulated free trading economy.

 

[Jake]

. What does seem clear though is that if a Brexit happens, the UK's future economy depends on the will of politicians to create a deregulated free trading economy.

Those being politicians of the world not just the UK. Most of whom have higher priorities than sorti g that out with the UK.

Nb those who say WTO rules are fine should ponder on the fact that WTO only covers goods, and our economy is 70-80% services. German cars will get in fine with a tariff they could probably live with but the UK's professional services and banking & financial services will not have access under WTO rules. I know everyone sniffs at a service led economy but we are damn good at it.

 

[Inoffthered]

You are right, there are so many variables thst makes it almost kmpossible to predict. What does seem clear though is that if a Brexit happens, the UK's future economy depends on the will of politicians to create a deregulated free trading economy.

Will of the politicians? If we vote Brexit there will be a queue of people representing Mercedes, BMW, Porsche, Audi and BMW outside Merkel's office counselling for continuing free trade with the UK and no German politician is going to create a recession Germany but ceasing to trade with the fifth largest world economy. Our economy won't collapse because we cannot buy any German cars or French wine and cheese.

The EU has more to lose from stopping trade with us than we have. If indeed the EU does embark on a policy of punishment, that in itself actually justifies the decision to leave.

If they impose tariffs on any goods or services from the UK, then they should expect reciprocal action and given that they sell more to us than we sell to them they have nothing to gain.

There may be period of uncertainty but nothing we cannot withstand. Actually coming out of the protectionist EU economic block into a world of free trade will be a boost to our economy. IMHO it always appeared perverse to apply tariffs to food imports from Africa. Of course, the tariff barriers were erected to protect inefficient French agriculture but as well as keeping food prices high, they prevent the economic development of third world countries.

In any event, the decision is about more than economic growth it is about sovereignty. I don't share the little Englander mentality that thinks we need to be told what to do by faceless Eurocrats, we will do much better outside the EU.

Vote Leave.

 

[dexter]

Does anyone know how much as a percentage, the U.K. Imports from the other 27 members of the EU collectively?
If they need us more than we need them, I imagine it would be quite a considerable amount.

 

[Terry - Somerset]

The view that the rest of EU will quickly sign up new trade agreements with th UK is at best optimistic as:

- agreement of all remaining 27 members will be required. Germany may have the muscle to coerce some smaller states but not all 27

- UK companies without a major EU business may prefer to sit behind tariff barriers to boost their UK profits

- EU companies may similarly prefer to sit behind a tariff barrier

- EU companies and states may prefer to put up barriers in the hope of attracting inward investment which may otherwise go to UK

- EU will want to develop their own financial services business to compete with London

One could liken it to placing a bet on Grimsby town to win the cup before the tournament starts. I can't prove it is stupid, but all that has gone before makes it unlikely.

 

[Phil Pascoe]

According to Peter Lilley ( the trade minister who helped set up the single market ) if we have no trade agreement at all the average tariff we will will pay is 2.4% and the amount we pay in now equates to an average tariff of 7% -- he reckon this is misselling on a scale that dwarfs PPI.

 

[RogerS]

Does anyone know how much as a percentage, the U.K. Imports from the other 27 members of the EU collectively?
If they need us more than we need them, I imagine it would be quite a considerable amount.

Here you go, dexter

http://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov. ... ty-eu.html

 

[beech1948]

Interesting that today an article from The Spectator was reprinted in one of the dailies. I have subscribed to the Spectator for the last 53 yrs....it was founded in 1836 I think and has become a beacon of thought about the issues of the day.

Todays article was a tour de force of the rationale of In or OUT and is well worth reading as a well thought out and balanced review of the arguements. Not many of those about these days.

Economically we will be better off if OUT

Government will be better off if OUT

UK laws for Uk people if OUT

Democracy for all if OUT

EU being a corrupt and unaccountable organisation so OUT

EU being a brake on UK businesses so OUT

EU being a brake on other EU members so OUT

EU destroying national governments and economies eg Greece so OUT

Will we lose anything if OUT I think not. The EU will still need to be part of ther 5 eyes intelligence community of the UK/US/Australia/NZ/ and the EU.

UK is the 5th largest economy in the world and can get bigger if the EU boulder is removed from our necks so OUT

EU will not impose tariffs on us because they send more to us than we send to them so OUT

UK does not need trade agreements with the EU to trade with individual countries so get OUT

EU led by Germany is really the fulfillment of WW3 as the Germans try to take over the whole of Europe so OUT

UK finance is under threat by EU legislation so we should go it alone and fight them so OUT

German stock exchange wants to buy the UK stock exchange run by a chicken hearted Frenchman to cement Germany's ability to lord it over Europe so get OUT and keep the UK stock exchange British

EU will collapse in 5 yrs after the UK leaves as it crumbles under Germany's deadening leadership and the Euro fails so OUT

 

[BearTricks]

I might as well come clean and state that I have changed my own mind, largely down to much that Jake has posted in this thread, and will be voting to Remain.

I'm very surprised that someone's mind has been changed. I assumed that the vast majority of people were voting with their guts. I think that the rhetoric from both sides is so aggressive and patronising that most people are cemented in their views after trying to talk to someone with the opposite idea.

I know I've been angered enough by some things in this thread that I've retreated back in to the safety of my shell. There's a girl on my facebook feed who insists on posting fifty or so links a day to pro-remain articles and pontificating about how terrified she is that we may leave. I'm for remain but even I think she protests too much, and that half of her links are complete nonsense. If I had the opposite opinion I could easily see how someone like her could hurt the remain campaign more than help it.

 

[thetyreman]

looks like most people here then will be voting OUT from what I've seen.

 

[Inoffthered]

One could liken it to placing a bet on Grimsby town to win the cup before the tournament starts. I can't prove it is stupid, but all that has gone before makes it unlikely.

Actually, that analogy is pretty stupid as you seem to be forgetting that the UK is the fifth largest global economy. If you used the team that finished 5th in the premier league instead of the team that was in 96th place, then you would be betting on Manchester United!

With regards to your other points,

What Germany wants, Germany gets but to be honest if the rest of the EU want to be dicks and cut their nose off to spite their face then let them. Adopting a policy of imposing punishment for leaving by itself justifies the decision to leave. A bit of short term pain would still be worth it to restore sovereignty and to control our destiny again. The real problem with the way Cameron and co have organised the remain campaign is that they have run down and denigrated our country. What the remainiacs are actually saying is that they do not have the confidence , ability and ideas to run the country and that they want to delegate authority to the EU.

Economic policy is determined by government not individual companies. Trade barriers are however, a sign of economic weakness not strength. There is an interesting clip on Youtube of Prof Patrick Minford who destroys the argument of Remainiac economists.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GV7nazf5wOo (Minford starts at about 1.00)
Minford, unlike the Remainiac economists, argued against joining the Euro and he predicted what would happen in the eurozone)

EU is currently a protectionist area that imposed tariffs so nothing new there, but as they export more to us than we do to them that would be result in net income to the government. But the use of tariffs creates inefficient businesses because they are insulated from the real world. Tariffs may allow inefficient businesses to survive but the price is paid by every consumer within the EU who could get stuff cheaper but have to pay the tariff.

Don't forget that if the UK leaves the EU, the EU itself becomes a less attractive place to base a business especially if they have erected tariff barriers.

Dont think that the EU hasn't been trying to develop financial services because they have. The EU is however, proposing to introduce a financial transactions tax which affect London more than the EU, which is another good reason to leave.

 

[Flynnwood]

Posted on another forum - see what you think (not written by me):

Cost
Both sides have taken a polarised view on the amount of money we pay to the EU, I think the truth is somewhere in between.
According to the European Parliament Information Office based in the United Kingdom the net (what it actually costs us after all the ins, outs and ducking and diving) contribution of the UK is

£8,473,000,000 Per Year, Say eight and a half thousand million pounds
£162,942,308 Per Week, Say one hundred and sixty three million pounds
£23,213,699 Per Day, Say twenty three and a bit million pounds per day

Of course the Brexit folks say it is more but even if these figures given by the EU itself are right I don’t think we get value for what we pay. I would prefer that money to be spent on our schools, hospitals and vulnerable people. If it helped the poor kids in Spain suffering an unemployment rate of 45% I would feel better about it; but it doesn’t.

Immigration
Successive Governments have not been honest with us about levels of immigration and their ability to control it as members of the EU. The current Government acknowledge it needs to be brought down but fail consistently. We can’t control immigration within the EU.

I think we are unfair to people from countries outside the EU who can’t apply to live here. Its in our economic interests to encourage immigration of those people with the skills to build our economy and that shouldn’t be decided on the basis of whether they were lucky enough to be born in the EU. I think we the people should be able to decide both the numbers and skills of those people coming into our country.

Housing
I like and make the effort to engage with the people from the EU who have moved into my street. These “immigrants” are decent people striving to do the best for themselves and their families.

They are getting ripped off to rent their homes paying amounts which have increased more than 40% in the last three years because of the mismatch in supply and demand which undoubtedly and somewhat ironically immigration has contributed to.
The last local family with two young children who lived in one of these renters were given a 25% rent increase demand from the landlord and had to leave.

It is the duty of our elected government to protect the interests of those who elected them and in that they have failed both in terms of the housing stock and in terms of excessive immigration which has confounded the problem.

Bureaucracy/Rules
There’s a lot of red herrings getting thrown around here, the EU does some good things (Air Quality) and some silly things. Most of the silly things are not life changing but I question whether they are necessary (Bananas).

I believe small business people, the majority of whom say that EU rules make doing business harder.

The EU machinery is a massively inefficient gravy train for the professionals and politicians and does not serve the interests of the people of the EU. Forty years is long enough to have done better. I believe the majority of ordinary people around the EU feel the same.

UK Economics/Jobs
The UK has a healthier economy than most of the EU. This has been helped by immigration as well as having control of our own currency. If we were able to operate selective immigration I believe we would be even better off.

EU membership has not benefitted the most vulnerable in our society. Many people and young people in particular face intense competition due to the greater supply of labour and as with most competitive environments those with the least means have faired worse. If you are a disabled young person in the UK your chances of getting a job are reduced as a result of EU membership.

We see plenty of FTSE 100 leaders supporting EU membership. Their opinions are based on their own interests as well as the businesses they run. Large businesses have a strategic and operational advantage operating within the complexities of the European Union. I have shares in some of these businesses so I am not against them but I think they are powerful enough.

I am very concerned by the Trans Atlantic (TTIP) trade agreement being drawn up between the EU and the US. I don’t trust EU negotiators to make an agreement which protects our NHS and our public services.

We are told that we won’t be able to work in the rest of Europe if we leave. I don’t believe it, people were working all over Europe before the EU. Its much harder to move and get work in the US but plenty of people do.

My sense overall is that the EU has resulted in a more polarised society with wealth gravitating to the rich.

EU Economics/Jobs
Growth across most of the EU is poor. There are major strategic problems such as a unified currency for different types and strengths of economies, a point acknowledged by many high profile people on both sides of the argument. The economies of France, Spain, Italy and Greece are in a precarious position.

The economic risks facing the EU project are substantial and the risks of remain for the UK are mostly not understood or publicised.

The most mobile/able have been able to move around for employment. Germany benefits massively from the euro for its manufacturing industries, the ordinary people of most of the other European countries have either not benefitted or are worse off as a result of the European project.

I haven’t seen any proposal to eject the people who have joined us from within the EU so I can’t see any economic hardship for them in a leave vote.

For Spain, Greece and Italy the only solution to their economic problems might be an exit.

Short term impact of Brexit
Nobody knows for sure what will happen either way, stay or leave, I wish they would say so.
The balance between the message in each case is way out of balance with the remain side succeeding in scaring people. My view is that the risks of remaining are equal if not greater. If one of the Southern European countries has an economic shock we could suffer more as a result of staying in.

There is already significant volatility in most of the UK and European financial markets and I think this will increase in the short term. Equally the markets might react positively to the prospects of a UK economy unbridled and with the uncertainty facing the rest of Europe overseas investors may look to UK business as a safe haven.

So I don’t know but neither do they and I wish they would stop trying to scare us. My best guess and thats all it is that we will have a small short term negative effect. I don’t believe the doom and gloom story. Many FTSE 250 and FTSE all share businesses will thrive outside EU membership. The FTSE 100 is no longer a meaningful reflection of the UK economy as many of those businesses are international.

When you listen to Mark Carney carefully its quite clear that he is raising risk as a pre cursor to acting upon what may happen i.e. being prepared.

If you wake up on the morning of a Brexit, sit back and have a coffee, not much will happen in the two year transition period, there will be a lot of hot air but not much action.

Long term impact of Brexit
Don’t believe the politicians who tell you thats it once the vote is had its settled.
If its Brexit the EU will do everything it can to make an improved settlement, the UK economy is just too big for them to do anything else. If its remain expect an ongoing diatribe of dissatisfaction and Tory in-fighting. Oh Dear.

Lets suppose after an exit vote we do get down to negotiating trade deals. The only sense I can make of the stats is that we would end up being a very large trading partner for the EU. It seems to me that its in no party’s interest to impose tariffs and restrictive practices. Common sense will prevail and tariffs will either not be imposed or balanced meaning this is a hullaballoo about nothing.

Most of the stats we hear are about physical trade not services which constitutes the larger part of the UK economy and is an area where we have enormous difficulty accessing European markets.

At present we are unable to secure international trade deals around the world and would be able to do so faster and more effectively with the enormous number of growing markets throughout the Commonwealth and the rest of the World.

President Obama said we will be “at the back of the queue”. Have you ever heard an American say “queue”? Sorry its always “line”, sounds like our Dave’s words to me and after his flip on Turkey and the scare stories I just don’t believe him.

Of course the US will do a trade deal with us; go to Google Maps and have a look in San Diego at the BAE facility by the US Navy base. Oh and whilst I think the guy has had a bad time with Congress the fact remains that in the US the wealth gap between rich and poor (Read Stiglitz, The Price of Inequality) is worse than its ever been. How will his advice help the ordinary people of the UK? If followed it would sure help US Corporations.

Security
Ask anyone you know in the military, NATO is the instrument of high level European peace and security. Those who imply a war with another European Country are trying to manipulate us. Nobody in Europe is going to kick off against us. The geopolitical tensions that sparked WWI and WWII just don’t exist and the stakes with nuclear weapons knocking around are too high. The populations of other EU countries aren’t going to stomach any trumped up military threat against the UK nowadays, gone are the days where the officer blows the whistle to “have em over the trenches”.

How did the EU security apparatus (what is that by the way?) help prevent Paris or Brussels?

Europol will continue in or out.

The intelligence services will continue co-operating regardless.

The remainers say Putin wants us to leave so there is a more divided Europe. What difference will it make practically? Any conflict with the Bear will be a NATO issue. Will our ability to agree sanctions be poorer outside the EU? Don’t see it myself.
Border security across Shengen is poor, its common sense that the movement of terrorists is assisted by free movement of population.

Ask yourself what happened in the Balkans. The EU didn’t help at all.

Turkey
Well which version do you believe from Cameron, the one where he tells the Turks he wants to “pave the way from Ankara to Brussels” or the one where he tells us it won’t happen? Please.

Competence
The true measure of the competence of an organisation is its ability to manage a crisis:
Greece; calamity.

The European Economy is in crisis, ask the unemployed in Spain, Italy and Portugal.
Balkans; what did the EU do?

Immigration crisis; an absolute disaster from both a border control and humanitarian perspective. If the EU exists for anything its to deal with something like this. Absolute incompetence with no valid excuses after forty years to get it right.

Democracy/Law/Sovereignty
The only politician I want in office is the one I can vote out. Take your view as you wish.

The majority of Laws are now made by the EU and in most cases our courts are subservient to European Courts. Its never bothered me but equally I can’t see what it does for me either. I do know if the majority of people here don’t like a European Law its almost impossible to get it changed. Hang on, aren’t the courts there to serve the people

Culture/Fun
Wouldn’t it be great to going back to buying some Pesetas again for a trip to the sun? You could even stick your card in the wall, the bank would rip you off of course but the beer would be a hell of a lot cheaper. Happy Days.

Ex Pats
The economy of Southern Spain would collapse without the UK ex-pat community. EHIC card withdrawal works both ways so the politicos would have to work it out. NHS pays into it of course. People working within the EU will not be kicked out; their companies will arrange residency/permits same as before the EU.

Goodbye EU, Hello Europe.

 

[Inoffthered]

Editor of the Guardian is voting leave!

http://www.breitbart.com/london/2016/06 ... ing-leave/

 

[Jake]

Does anyone know how much as a percentage, the U.K. Imports from the other 27 members of the EU collectively?
If they need us more than we need them, I imagine it would be quite a considerable amount.

Exports from EU to UK would be about 3% of EU (ex UK) GDP, and Britain would be about 16% of the EU's exports but the only country with a big trade surplus with us is Germany. EU would be 45% of our exports.which is about 13% of our GDP.