Who is in and who is out?

[whiskywill]

Sorry Roger no names but does this help?

'A poll commissioned for the Observer and carried out by Ipsos MORI, which drew responses from more than 600 economists, found 88% saying an exit from the EU and the single market would most likely damage Britain’s growth prospects over the next five years.

A striking 82% of the economists who responded thought there would probably be a negative impact on household incomes over the next five years in the event of a Leave vote, with 61% thinking unemployment would rise.'

That sums it up for me. They don't know.

 

[mind_the_goat]

That sums it up for me. They don't know.

Predicting the future has proved difficult to do in many fields
All we can do is look at the assumptions made for each prediction and try to figure out which we think are most likely. As there are so many uncertainties feeding in then we expect a massive range of possible outcomes. This isn't hard to understand which is why I find both sides being really condescending by assuming we can't understand that and thinking they need to give us definitive answers when none exist. They are also picking results at the far ends of the ranges to try and support their arguments.

 

[MIGNAL]

But we have a far better idea of what happens with remain than with Brexit. Just by virtue of the fact that we've been in for a number of years.

 

[Eric The Viking]

@Jacob:

I believe the most widely adopted legal framework, by far and for the obvious reason is English Common Law.

Many of its concepts, such as Habeas Corpus, trial by jury (i.e. the facts of the case determined by common people, one's peers), and separation between the judiciary and investigators/police, are unknown to the Napoleonic code.

If you don't think those are important, fine. But I know someone who spent almost a calendar year in a Spanish jail without charge and without appearing before a judge, because there is no habeas corpus law there.

He wasn't even told why he was being detained. When his case finally did get into a courtroom (it took diplomatic intervention amongst other things), the arresting police officer was unable to identify him**, and no case of any description was presented. This happened in the early 2000s, not in the 1960s. Exactly the same "process" has been applied to British lorry drivers doing continental runs.

The European arrest warrant now makes the same process work across international boundaries too. People, such as you or me, can be arrested by British police and deported, without us having committed any offence recognised here, nor even ever having set foot in the EU country in question. The magistrate here presiding over the deportation is not even allowed to examine charges, or evidence. They merely have to check the forms are filled-in properly.

Imagine Turkey gets admitted to the EU: they have a long and miserable track record of locking up critics of the government and those who criticise elements of Islam or are camapigners to maintain the old Attaturk secularist state. Say I criticise Erdogan in a standup routine, or I'm rude about Islamists. Assuming I annoy the Turkish authorities enough, UNDER EXISTING EU LAW they can have me arrested and deported to Turkey: they don't have to make any case here, nor do they have to put me on trial in Turkey either.

When you hear Cameron claiming any "further loss of sovereignty" would be put to a referendum, bear that in mind. The EU arrest warrant is with us now and under the acquis would be automatically adopted by any accession country.

Similarly, Europol officers have delegatory powers of arrest* here, are armed, and carry diplomatic passports (making them, by the Vienna Convention, exempt from British criminal law, even if they shoot someone), and have the authority to order the deportation of British subjects using pretty much the same process as above and the same standard of "proof".

If you don't think all that is a travesty of natural justice, I would be surprised. I happen to think it's highly dangerous for society as a whole. And yes, I know about the USA agreement we have, and no, I don't like that either. But at least in that case (small consolation), there has to be an application to a court in the USA, where, because they use English common law, habeas corpus applies and charges must be laid before a warrant is issued.

Be under no illusions, the EU is quietly but determinedly putting into place all the apparatus for a police state, and has been doing so for decades, obvious to those who had their eyes open wide enough to notice it.

E.

PS: And for goodness' sake go do some research before coming back at me on this - I HAVE done my homework and I DO know of which I speak.

*Europol do not have direct powers of arrest here presently, which was a last minute softening of the treaty wording to make its creation palatable to some biddable critics, however they can "instruct" national police forces to carry out arrests on their behalf, with just the same rules otherwise applying. So you'd be arrested by a British bobby, and presumably handed over to the Europol person at the airport -- again, no court appearance, nor warrant, nor charges laid.

**I have been told that one way the police in Spain are measured is their arrest rate, not their crime clear-up rate.

 

[Phil Pascoe]

The referendum question could be re- phrased;

"Should the UK remain as part of the free market, or leave the free market?"

https://medium.com/@calum.moore/brexit- ... .fdzqjxafh

It's anything but free - it's bl00dy expensive.

 

[Jacob]

.......Be under no illusions, the EU is quietly but determinedly putting into place all the apparatus for a police state, and has been doing so for decades, obvious to those who had their eyes open wide enough to notice it......

The more I hear of these sinister plots the less I believe them.
Brexit arguments seem all to be about sinister plots, fear of the "occult" :lol: paranoia, fear of immigrants.
I've lost interest in Brexit arguments to be honest.

I'm looking forwards to meeting our new immigrant neighbours when they arrive, I hope they aren't too disappointed by the UK!

http://blogs.ec.europa.eu/ECintheUK/eu- ... as-corpus/
http://blogs.ec.europa.eu/ECintheUK/obs ... n-to-fact/

Quite interesting these Euromyth pages. No doubt they are all lies are composed by sinister ex-nazis working in a cave somewhere in deepest Europe, with the intention of making us feel safe! Cue - manic laughter and the sound of cell doors creaking shut and the guillotine blade whistling down with a horrible squidgy thump at the end. :shock: :shock:

 

[Phil Pascoe]

Sorry Roger no names but does this help?

'A poll commissioned for the Observer and carried out by Ipsos MORI, which drew responses from more than 600 economists, found 88% saying an exit from the EU and the single market would most likely damage Britain’s growth prospects over the next five years.

A striking 82% of the economists who responded thought there would probably be a negative impact on household incomes over the next five years in the event of a Leave vote, with 61% thinking unemployment would rise.'

That sums it up for me. They don't know.

At best it's opinion from people who in the main have been wrong about every major financial event in decades. It's rather surprising in an EU whose business and trade is declining - the only continent doing so - that 39% of economists don't expect unemployment to rise. Notice also they don't choose to mention the thousands of economists asked who would not commit themselves.

 

[BearTricks]

I was in Barcelona recently and it surprised me how many people were willing to make an attempt, without looking put upon, to speak English when my terrible Spanish failed. I had people apologise profusely for not knowing certain words, when I was in their country and it was clearly my fault for being an ignorant foreigner. The same was true in Vienna; if anything, their English was better. I think everyone I met under 35 was fluent, and everyone else was putting their best foot forward.

I think there'd be riots, or at least badly constructed facebook rants, if somewhere like Debenhams decided to list product descriptions in another language besides English. In Spain, their version of Debenhams has English above Spanish or Catalan and it actually made me feel a bit guilty that they had to do that. It's a center of tourism, but so are London and Edinburgh. I find it a bit sad that we, as a culture, are so unwilling to make any kind of effort that other countries have to adapt so that our stubbornness doesn't grind everything to a halt.

I'm guilty too. I learned languages at school and I stopped putting in any effort once I left. Many foreigners that I have met have been brought up to be multi-lingual or have had to learn it later in life, just to get by. I don't know many Brits, who weren't second generation immigrants, who can speak more than one language. I once went for a job interview in journalism and was up against a Spanish (or maybe South American) lady who spoke eight languages. I knew I wouldn't get the job and I wasn't really angry because she had clearly been brought up in a education system that realises that we're not a planet of little islands sending ships across the sea to fill each other with arrows any more.

 

[Phil Pascoe]

Certainly - but the majority of us do not need European languages (with the possible exception of Spanish) - the English notice above the Spanish in the store was not there for the benefit of the British so much as for the English speaking billions in the rest of the world. " I find it a bit sad that we, as a culture, are so unwilling to make any kind of effort ..." - in many ways I'd sooner my children learned something of use such as to drive or to type properly than spend time on things they will most probably never use. (Speaking as someone with O level German, O level Latin and A level French - actually the Latin has been useful.) Their commercial businesses and tourist centres may publish info. in other languages (why not?) - but I bet their services and utilities don't. We, natives of the world's lingua franca see fit to waste £millions p. a. translating NHS, legal, education authority etc. documents into umpteen minor foreign languages. Every time I get a letter from the hospital with translations into sixteen different languages it seriously pissses me off.

 

[Eric The Viking]

I was in Barcelona recently and it surprised me how many people were willing to make an attempt, without looking put upon, to speak English when my terrible Spanish failed. I had people apologise profusely for not knowing certain words, when I was in their country and it was clearly my fault for being an ignorant foreigner. The same was true in Vienna; if anything, their English was better. I think everyone I met under 35 was fluent, and everyone else was putting their best foot forward.

I think there'd be riots, or at least badly constructed facebook rants, if somewhere like Debenhams decided to list product descriptions in another language besides English. In Spain, their version of Debenhams has English above Spanish or Catalan and it actually made me feel a bit guilty that they had to do that. It's a center of tourism, but so are London and Edinburgh. I find it a bit sad that we, as a culture, are so unwilling to make any kind of effort that other countries have to adapt so that our stubbornness doesn't grind everything to a halt.

I'm guilty too. I learned languages at school and I stopped putting in any effort once I left. Many foreigners that I have met have been brought up to be multi-lingual or have had to learn it later in life, just to get by. I don't know many Brits, who weren't second generation immigrants, who can speak more than one language. I once went for a job interview in journalism and was up against a Spanish (or maybe South American) lady who spoke eight languages. I knew I wouldn't get the job and I wasn't really angry because she had clearly been brought up in a education system that realises that we're not a planet of little islands sending ships across the sea to fill each other with arrows any more.

I understand what you're saying and to some extent agree with you (I was a lousy linguist at school, and I wish I'd tried harder). I think you're assuming that the Spanish store is aiming at Brits (obviously I wasn't there so have to guess). It's very common elsewhere, possibly with the exception of South America, to use English as the "international" language. Most people have it as second (or third!) language.

The frustrating thing I find when travelling is that people want to try their English on me, and I rarely get to try their languages out properly, beyond ordering in restaurants etc. It doesn't help that I worked in the computer industry, where the default language and all technical literature is in English.Yes, you get lazy. No, that doesn't mean you hate foreigners or foreign cultures.

If you're suggesting that Brexit proponents, such as me, want some return to Nelson's day, I"d have to disagree with you (albeit very politely!). I've tried to post facts on here, not speculation. Despite the raspberries being blown by Jacob (metaphorically), I CAN back up what I've written with detail, for example Corpus Juris (I've seen the source documents, shown to me by someone who actually attended the Seminar where it was launched).

Napoleonic Law comes from a different Weltanschauung to English law, one in which citizens serve the state, and not the other way round. We had that once; after a civil war and some other nastiness we dumped it. Before the EU, we had a robust constitution that protected the freedoms of the individual; now we do not.

I don't dislike continental Europe - it's where I holiday and I love its diversity and its culture. But we were lied to about the EU from the very outset (see Lord Kilmuir's advice to Heath right back in 1960), and we are still being lied to today - Cameron can't even be honest about how little he got from his "renegotiation" that kicked all this off, and he's not explained why, right up until mid March 2016, he was so keen for Turkey to join the EU as quickly as possible, but now, er, he isn't.

The European arrest warrant does exactly what I said. Europol officers have exactly the status and powers I described. The 'big names' lined up to push the EU all have vested interests, especially Blair (who once wanted to be EU president, don't forget), and lie habitually (surely not!). We don't need or want a police state, and we can do better than this!

One of the recent Brexit leaflets pointed out that if we weren't in the thing already, we'd never contemplate signing up in the present circumstances. It's a reasonable point.

Iceland was hit harder than most by the banking crisis in 2008, yet now it's economy has almost completely recovered. In contrast, eurozone countries are getting more and more enmired, either in debt (Portugal, Spain, Greece, Italy), or in ownership of bad debts (everyone else). It's hurt every major economy that participates in it.

But we should have joined the euro! Thus said Clarke, Heseltine, Blair, Major, the Kinnock Empire (TM), and so on and so on. There's a long list of "economic experts" with a really dodgy history of forecasts.

We've been promised referendums on EU constitution, then denied them. Those countries that got them were ignored (France). Ireland was told to go on voting until it learned what the right answer was. The constitution itself, being rejected, was simply forced through as a new treaty (they can get those through, even if the electorate gives them what-for in referendums). It's the same blooming document, word-for-word in places. What hubris!

Time and again, the EU top brass have shown themselves to lie, deceive and behave as deviously as necessary to further their agenda. That really isn't (or shouldn't be) the British way.

Like many others, I want honest, accountable straightforward and OPEN government in the UK. And I want the state to be as small as possible and big as it needs to be AND NO MORE. Most importantly, I want our government to decide where every penny of taxpayers' money is spent, for subsidies to go directly from the British government to regions and activities that need them, and for the whole thing to be open, auditable and accountable.

but you knew all that, I'm sure.

 

[dexter]

There are four doctors working from three surgerys that cover my local area here in rural France. All of them are Rumanian, they all speak excellent French and English.

 

[Eric The Viking]

Certainly - but the majority of us do not need European languages (with the possible exception of Spanish) - the English notice above the Spanish in the store was not there for the benefit of the British so much as for the English speaking billions in the rest of the world. " I find it a bit sad that we, as a culture, are so unwilling to make any kind of effort ..." - in many ways I'd sooner my children learned something of use such as to drive or to type properly than spend time on things they will most probably never use. (Speaking as someone with O level German, O level Latin and A level French - actually the Latin has been useful.) Their commercial businesses and tourist centres may publish info. in other languages (why not?) - but I bet their services and utilities don't. We, natives of the world's lingua franca see fit to waste £millions p. a. translating NHS, legal, education authority etc. documents into umpteen minor foreign languages. Every time I get a letter from the hospital with translations into sixteen different languages it seriously pissses me off.

I did some number crunching on the Welsh Assembly's accounts several years back. Welsh government (the ***. plus local councils under it) spends approx. five thousand pounds per native Welsh speaker* every year providing translation services and documents in Welsh. Wales runs at a thumping net loss, incidentally, like Scotland, meaning English taxpayers are paying for this.

That's OK, possibly - at least it's a democratic choice, but I understand the EU has 'recognised' Cornish as a 'minority language' - heck! It was a dead language in the 1980s - I made radio programmes with one of the last ever Cornish speakers, and she's long gone! The British government had the good sense to pull the plug on teaching it (on the basis that nobody wanted to learn it and Cornish schools didn't want to teach it), but watch out for an EU "cultural programme" coming to Redruth or Camborne real soon now (obviously, that's a totally unsubstantiated assertion, based solely on no understanding whatsoever!). And someone will make a nice sum 'supporting' it.

Remember the Cornish film studio? Few do, but it got £4m** in grants...

E.

*People for whom Welsh is their native language and English isn't.
**EDIT: Apparently only 1.8m was "EU" funding (i.e. taxpayer's money from which the EU has taken its admin cut). I think the £4m figure was its total investment. It's now being turned into a housing estate (Google maps).

 

[Jacob]

......
Napoleonic Law comes from a different Weltanschauung to English law, one in which citizens serve the state, and not the other way round. .......

Completely the reverse of the truth.
Napoleonic Code was born of the revolution and was about justice and freedom from tyranny. It was about power to the people. It seriously scared the British ruling classes and like much about revolutionary Europe (Tom Paine etc) was largely written out of English history
Napoleon and the revolution may have gone sh|tshaped later but the Nap code is highly respected still.

"Weltanschauung" means "world view" for those who can't be bothered to decipher Eric's picturesque (and often occult? :lol: ) rambling rhetoric.

 

[Phil Pascoe]

Cornish is an odd one. There is apparently evidence that there was a pocket of children near Zennor in the 1920s that still spoke some Cornish, and the modern revival started at that time so there is an argument that it never completely died. Dolly Pentreath is variously reported as being the last speaker and the last fluent speaker, but in fact she was the last MONOGLOT speaker - it was spoken long after that. I can remember as a child my grandmother using words and expressions I doubt many people east of St. Ives would have understood (the farm she was born on was between St. Ives and Zennor) I don't approve of £millions being spent on it, neither do I believe should it be forgotten for no reason - for instance road signs were being translated and the cost was questioned, and the answer came back that they were replaced with bilingual ones as and when they were due for replacement anyway so the cost was minimal. That sort of thing is fine. A friend of mine made an apposite comment - Cornish vernacular will die out long before the Cornish language. You're more likely in most of Cornwall to hear estuary English in a pub than a Cornish accent, and in Camborne, Redruth and Hayle the second language is Polish. By the bye. S4C is apparently the most subsidised (per capita) TV network in the world, and the second language of Dublin is Mandarin. I remember the guy who ran the first major EU subsidised regeneration scheme meeting a friend he hadn't seen for 20+ years one lunchtime in a bar. He asked him if he wanted a drink, the chap said he'd have an orange juice as he was working and it was written down to CPR regeneration - we couldn't believe it. This was a man earning phenomenal money and he charged out an orange juice for his friend. These schemes make a lot of money for the people that work within them and ultimately achieve very little for the rest of us.
The "cultural programme" coming to Cornwall isn't so much led by the EU as by up country city councils owning large parts of our social housing estates so they can ship out people they don't want.

 

[Paul Chapman]

the Kinnocks turning the EU into a well-paid family business

Probably the best and most accurate quote in this whole thread and one of the most compelling reasons to vote Leave.

Cheers :wink:

Paul

 

[Eric The Viking]

... much about revolutionary Europe (Tom Paine etc) was largely written out of English history.

You really have lost it there. Are you actually serious, or just trying another wind-up?

For what it's worth (can't remember - the flyleaf says I bought it ten years ago), Paine is one of my favourite thinkers, although I'll concede some of the later essays in TRoM are a bit rambly. He is highly regarded still in France, the USA, and here too (and probably all over the world). Anyway he didn't spend much of his time making 'English History' compared to American and French.

But thinking on it... you do seem to have a lot in common with him, at least temperamentally.

"Weltanschauung" means "world view" for those who can't be bothered to decipher...

It's in common use in Sociology literature. And Napoleon was far from Libertarian, as you surely know (in both cases) - by the time the Revolution threw up Bony, it might have been a battlefield chant, but the new elite was already establishing itself, and the worldview was decidedly statist, as it has remained to this day. Napoleonic law reflects this, as you'd expect.

 

[Jacob]

..... the worldview was decidedly statist, as it has remained to this day. Napoleonic law reflects this, as you'd expect.

Democracies are unavoidably "statist" almost by definition - the "state" is our institution through which we run our common affairs, as distinct from them; monarchy, church, landed interests, business, despots, dictators etc.
Those who argue for less state control want to take power from you and me and give it back to them (in general).
Those who think there was a golden age before "the state" took so much power, live in cloud cuckoo land.
The EU is "statist" of course but is also democratic (in spite of all the propaganda) and is crammed with people who would wish to keep it that way.
If we stay in it will be our state/alliance.
One of the most interesting and under-appreciated details is the idea of free movement throughout the EU. This is democracy on the hoof. This is the EU, far from controlling personal lives, doing exactly the opposite and making people free.
The Brexiters don't want this, don't want a powerful democratic state, and presumably would have is back in the middle ages at the earliest opportunity.
Free movement of capital but controlled movement of labour amounts to slavery.

Just a few thoughts for the day! Off down the road for a bottle, back shortly!

 

[Cheshirechappie]

The EU is "statist" of course but is also democratic (in spite of all the propaganda) and is crammed with people who would wish to keep it that way.

That idea that the EU is democratic is flat wrong. In the UK, we, the ordinary people, elect to Parliament those who make laws and take the decisions that affect us all, and we can therefore hold them to account through the ballot box. In the EU, the people who make laws and take the decisions (the Commissioners) are appointees and are in no way accountable through the ballot box - and that's not democratic.

By the way - the roots of English Common Law go back a very long way, probably being first codified by Alfred the Great. It suffered a bit of a setback in 1066, but was steadily rebuilt starting with Magna Carta in 1215. Basic tenets of Common Law are trial by jury (so the final decision is made not by an agent of the state but by twelve ordinary people) and habeas corpus, and it develops by experience - case law - so that the decision found just under one set of circumstances shall also apply should the same set of circumstances arise again. A basic tenet of Common Law is that it is common to all (hence the name), and thus nobody, even the Sovereign, is above it.

Napoleonic Law is far more recent (1804), does not include trial by jury (so the accused is at the mercy of an agent of the state) or habeas corpus, and judges may make whatever decision they see fit (so different results are possible for cases with the same circumstances). The basic tenet of Napoleonic law is that the state is above all citizens - so if those at the top of the state choose to ignore the law, they can do with impunity (until their successors retrospectively apply the law to them).

If we become part of the developing EU super-state, we would gradually lose our right to trial by jury and habeas corpus (already happening as Eric showed earlier), since EU law has primacy over domestic law.

Vote Leave - and keep democracy and the Common Law, two of the cornerstones of freedom.

 

[Jacob]

The EU is "statist" of course but is also democratic (in spite of all the propaganda) and is crammed with people who would wish to keep it that way.

That idea that the EU is democratic is flat wrong. In the UK, we, the ordinary people, elect to Parliament those who make laws and take the decisions that affect us all, and we can therefore hold them to account through the ballot box. In the EU, the people who make laws and take the decisions (the Commissioners) are appointees ......

So is the civil service here - ministers (and many other functionaries) are appointed. Ultimately the power rests with MEPs, MPs, head of government, and hence ourselves.
Brexiters seek to disparage, undermine and devalue the democratic process. Similarly they are opposed to free movement. So many turkeys voting for christmas! Who is pulling their strings? I see cunning plots (Eric's not the only one!)

NB Opposing free movement is the thin end of a wedge , with slavery at the other end - economic if not yer actual chain gang. Cui bono? (ask Eric what it means).

we would gradually lose our right to trial by jury and habeas corpus

Who is putting about these untruths?
http://blogs.ec.europa.eu/ECintheUK/eu- ... as-corpus/
Cui bono again? There's a lot of dodgy people trying to pull wool over our eyes and one of their meanest tricks is to make people alarmed about immigration. Divide and rule.

 

[Cheshirechappie]

So is the civil service here - ministers (and many other functionaries) are appointed. Ultimately the power rests with MEPs, MPs, head of government, and hence ourselves.
Brexiters seek to disparage, undermine and devalue the democratic process. Similarly they are opposed to free movement. So many turkeys voting for christmas! Who is pulling their strings? I see cunning plots (Eric's not the only one!)

NB Opposing free movement is the thin end of a wedge , with slavery at the other end - economic if not yer actual chain gang. Cui bono? (ask Eric what it means).

Sorry Jacob, but that's flat wrong.

The Civil Service has no authority to propose or enact legislation, only Ministers can do that. Ministers instruct, civil servants advise. The Ministers are drawn from the ranks of elected MPs, so are accountable to the electorate. There are also Parliamentary mechanisms for back-benchers to propose legislation - again, the elected.

In the EU, ONLY the Commission can propose or repeal legislation - and Commissioners are not elected and are unaccountable to the electorate. MEPs have no power to propose or repeal legislation, and have insufficient time to scrutinise it properly (deliberately so I suspect), so much of it goes through 'on the nod'.

Free movement - some immigration is good, too much causes problems. I'd like the right balance to be decided in Parliament, by people we elect ad can hold to account if we think they've got it wrong, and not be dictated to by people we didn't elect and can't hold to account.