But you’re talking about massively increasing demand in the future.
You’re making and argument for tomorrow based on today, which is somewhat disingenuous.
Electric vehicles
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You’re making and argument for tomorrow based on today, which is somewhat disingenuous.
Terry - Somerset
Established Member
Transition from existing fuels - mainly oil and gas (domestic heating) will likely happen over 20-25 years, not an immediate large spike.
Gas boilers are typically be replaced when they fail. Boilers last 15-20 years. The transition to electric (heat pumps etc) has barely started.
Cars last ~15 years. Currently ~3% of cars are EV. By 2030 I estimate ~25-30% of cars on the road will be EV. ICE cars sold in 2024 (78% of sales this year) will still be on the road in the late 2030s.
A 5% pa increase in electricity generation and distribution capacity would double capacity in 15 years, and treble in 22 years.
This is entirely achievable with a clear plan, not massive and unattainable.
It’s a middle class wet dream and you’re going to do it on the backs of the poor. Just like Khan did in London.
I can hear it now “those who cannot afford electric vehicles can make do with public transport”, or as Robin so honestly put it, “they can stay in their neighbourhoods and communities”.
Whatever happened to social mobility?
Again I have no problem banning diesels and large gas guzzling cars but as always, those who can afford to pollute, are allowed to do so. This is largely class warfare dreased up as environmental concerns.
You’re still overlooking the current reality that there is not enough resources to achieve the amount of battery vehicles you claim will need to be in existence, not to mention the horrendous and equally toxic pollution that comes from the increased wear on rubber tyres due to the massively increased weight of EV’s.
I believe that small, low weight, small engine petrol cars, will be a safer and more pragmatic and equitable way of moving forwards. Of course EV’s can be in the mix but not the solution.
Only if the increase is compounded, so that in the 15th year you add 3.1 times as much capacity as in the first year and in the 22nd year you add 4.3 times as much capacity as in the first year. That seems unlikely to me. Surely the increase would be additive, not multiplicative?
Most people at the bottom of the pile right now who own cars, own second-hand cars - why would that change when the majority of second-hand cars become EV? Even at this point in their adoption, I've never in my life owned a new car, but we're currently on our second EV...
Rhossydd
Established Member
They may not have much choice, but it will be interesting to watch how secondhand EV values effect that market.
I can foresee a major fall in values as EV reach the end of their battery life and the utility of the vehicle fails and the cost of a battery replacement is uneconomic.
Skydivermel
Established Member
I had a full EV and got rid of it last year. I went and brought a diesel Jag in place of it. My reasoning is 1. Insurance is far cheaper than trying to insure an EV. 2. I get more miles from the Jag than any EV, circa 600 miles. 3. It takes me circa 5-7 mins to fill up. 4. Even with diesel costing what it does it's cheaper than charging at public EV charging points. 5. New EV's are over priced. 6. 2nd hand EV's you need to worry about how much battery life is left in the vehicle. We have a home EV charger but at the time of EV ownership the best we could get was 4 hours of cheap rate electricity. If you have a prang in your EV the insurance company will instantly write it off. China has circa 1,200 coal fired power stations and my diesel Jag is the problem? I've worked in the construction industry for the best part of my adult life and trust me when I say the UK is running out of power. If Starmer wants to build 1.5M homes in this parliament (not going to happen) all those new homes will need electricity. It doesn't matter how many wind farms, solar panels, new power stations are built we are very close to running out of power. Selective power cuts are on the cards, when your home is thrown into darkness how you going to charge your EV.
You might want to take a glance at this https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ren...produced 7.727,exceeded the majority in China.
Before jumping on the “it’s someone else’s problem” band wagon
Yes your Jag is part of the problem, as is my Landrover.
The insurance issue has not been true for us. We do probably 100 miles a day - charge at night, always much cheaper than fossil. EVs are coming down in price. EVs are usually given a thorough going over before resale, so the battery condition is known to a new owner. Having had a shunt in our EV, we can categorically refute the bit about it being an automatic write-off, just as with an ICE, the damage done and the resale value of the car will have am impact on how likely it is to be written off.
Selective power cuts may become a thing, but with smart meters and lots of batteries sitting connected to the grid, better power management is possible, so a plus for EVs...
woodieallen
Established Member
Does that make Tesla's Level 4 ?
Blackswanwood
Still Learning
We could probably play Top Trumps of US versus UK road conditions but remain unconvinced of the others opinion.
I accept that the circumstances may not be exactly the same but there is a constantly quickening pace of delivery of improvements. For me it’s simply a question of when not if.
With congestion perhaps automated systems will navigate each other better than humans looking to get the edge over other road users do?
Blackswanwood
Still Learning
Sorry but I’ve not argued anything based on demand in the future. I’ve simply pointed out a benefit of smart meters that exists today.
I’m certainly not doubting that investment will need to be made in electricity supply and infrastructure. The announcement today on offshore wind licences is perhaps an example of part of this.
It’s a fair point given the depreciation these ev’s are facing but most cars in that end of the market, change hands from £500-5000.
The owners probably on expensive often ‘top up’ electric contracts.
I would imagine insurance will be another barrier to entry.
It will be a while yet before this will be affordable to them (including myself given I drive an old car).
My point more so is that the government will price them out of combustion cars through increased fuel duty, in order to try and nudge those who can switch but are more reluctant.
A tide not rising all boats, rather sinking all the smaller ones in it’s way.
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Rhossydd
Established Member
Agreed, but the when is a very long way off for that sort of automation.
All fine in theory in it's own bubble, but in the real world other road users won't have that equipment any time soon if ever.
Blackswanwood
Still Learning
Do you want to put a fiver on it?
Strikes me you're looking for reasons to stick with ICE, rather than looking for the opportunities presented by an evolving situation. Insurance is higher for EVs, I grant you, but that cost is much more than offset in cost per mile travelled for the average user. We have a tariff that changes cost per unit of electricity throughout the day and night, a simple enough app on a phone allows us to charge at the cheapest rate, thanks to a smart meter. We have absolutely no regrets about switching (pardon the pun) to electric.
Terry - Somerset
Established Member
I don't think your comments stand up to scrutiny.
Replacement of failed batteries will likely be uneconomic due to the rate of development - no OEMs are going to want to produce obsolete batteries for vehicles 8+ years old.
I would expect battery reconditioning services to evolve as volumes of in use old battery packs increase - much as ICE engine reconditioners used to.
However the rate of battery degradation is slow - current best estimates are ~2% pa - at 8 years old it may have lost 10-20% of capacity. In most (not all) cases this will not be an issue.
The rate may depend on number of cycles, depth of discharge etc etc - but ICE engines at 8 years old with inadequate servicing and/or high mileage also fail spectacularly - writing off their host vehicle.
L2. L2+ if being generous
Jameshow
Established Member
I do t think an Austin allegro is the best car to make a old Vs new point!
Probably the worst car in UK car manufacturing history!
Rhossydd
Established Member
Except that exactly what I said.
"Best estimates" in other words this is all new ground for which no one has real data points yet, so just hopeful guesses really.
I could tell of my experiences of dealing with rechargeables in the TV industry for the last 35 years, but even the recent Li-Ion stuff will behave in different ways to the larger scale of car batteries.
However there's precious little rechargeable tech that remains useable after 15 years.
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