Who is in and who is out?

[Random Orbital Bob]

It is interesting to hear the different points of view I have to say. I can honestly say I've seen more reasonable debate in this thread than anywhere else in this whole debacle. And, although a remainer myself I think Cheshirechappie's summary about scale of immigration rather than racism per se is close to the nail on the head that swung it for Brexit. The bottom line is the anger was directed towards a non accountable Governing entity being allowed to overrule our own accountable one. The immigration word just became a fulcrum to sell political careers (Farage, Boris et al) and newspapers by stoking the boiler of rage in people. But underneath that there is a genuine and quite legitimate concern about rules being foisted on us all that originate outside the democratic means of change.

In a rather naïve way I accept, it would be nice to think that Brussels might actually realise they've screwed up and voluntarily accept reform as a result of this "lesson" we're teaching them. That might then pave the means for a third way. I also agree that the consequential destruction of our domestic political parties may well result in a General election where the fulcrum vote is do we or don't we implement A50. These are turbulent times for sure. But my workshop is beckoning because I've got 2 pairs of legs in the clamps and the glues dry now so.......later.

 

[Jacob]

Yep I'm off down the allotment.

 

[custard]

Immigration was most certainly a major issue. However, it wasn't hatred of immigrants, it was a reaction to the powerlessness of ordinary people to change things through the ballot box.

Now ordinary people are going to find out how powerless they are to change things even with a referendum.

-No one's going to be sent home or deported, that was made clear throughout the campaign, so the same brown faces and Polski Sklep shops that distressed voters yesterday will still be there tomorrow.
-The majority of immigrants come from non EU countries, the referendum doesn't change that.
-The next government's most pressing task will be to deal with a European continent just 22 miles away. They'll cut deals, they'll compromise. That's what we pay them to do.
-We'll hang on to the European Passport for financial services, we have to or else we won't have the money we need. To retain that we'll compromise on free movement of people and we'll compromise on contributions to the European budget.
-We'll get concessions on things like the European Court of Human Rights and the Working Hours Directive. These will be trumpeted as a very big deal, but we all know that to most people they're really not.

Five years from now the ordinary person will be completely stumped if you ask them to point to one concrete and material example of how their lives have improved or even changed due to the referendum. And if you doubt the veracity of that claim then test it for yourself, set out clearly how you expect your life to improve and change in concrete practical terms, and then monitor the progress over the coming years.

 

[custard]

In a rather naïve way I accept, it would be nice to think that Brussels might actually realise they've screwed up and voluntarily accept reform as a result of this "lesson" we're teaching them.

Good point, I wish the Greeks had voted to leave the Euro when they had the chance then none of this would have been necessary. The Euro is the "bridge too far" that's wrecked the European project.

And you're also right about the workshop. I've a job promised for delivery on Wednesday so it's time to get my apron on!

 

[Rhossydd]

They would have to be a pretty damned good pickpocket to pick yours while you're sitting cocooned in your car.

Cars have doors Roger, they're just a means of transportation to where you're going. Then you get out and walk.

Actually the place where car windscreen washing is endemic, the A40 at White City, was the site of pretty nasty regular crimes where for a while people were being robbed whilst sitting in their cars in the traffic jam. So pretty much being mugged in their cars. Not by EU immigrants though.

 

[stuartpaul]

As the dust starts to settle we'll start to see how things shake down. Like others I'm not expecting to see any major change in the short term.

Custard has suggested an interesting experiment in comparing what you'd like with what you'll get. There will be many disappointed people I'll bet.

It's interesting to see the EU wanting a swift trigger for Article 50 and us wanting to slow things down a bit. This will be the first of the friction between 'us and them'. I don't know if 'they' can insist on an earlier trigger? I think Cameron is right to resign but I really hope Boris doesn't get it as a 'reward' for his Brexit activities, - I don't think he deserves it.

The Leave campaign had no authority or power to suggest how we spend the money we will now save. My bet is the government of the day will spend it on things that make them look good so they can keep their seat of power secure.

Those areas that relied on EU cash are likely now well stuffed would be my guess.

I'm disappointed we're out but how we handle the next few months will provide an indication of the long (and conceivably bumpy) road ahead.

 

[RogerS]

Phil, the article about "cash point crime" is typical Daily Mail nonsense, a dubious claim often repeated. The source for this information was a single police officer's statement, DCI Paul Bernard, estimating from "intelligence", something based on absolutely no data. Indeed there is no records kept of "cash point crime" and no definition of a "cash point crime", indeed what is a "cash point crime"?
I employ a Romanian lad from time to time, he is hard working and honest, yet is faced with discrimination whenever he tells people where he is from. Sure there are some Romanian criminals, but it's hardly like the streets of London are dangerous because of marauding gags of Romanians. Nearly all football hooligans are white British, the figure is 96% (a figure I made up just now based on "intelligence").

According to Police Professional there is an increase in arrests of Romanians.

http://www.policeprofessional.com/news.aspx?id=26285

That doesn't mean every case is a conviction.


My concern is the wasted time - when they could be doing other things when we're short staffed as it is.

Which pretty much vindicated what Phil P implied and yet got shouted down by some.

 

[RogerS]

.....
Actually the place where car windscreen washing is endemic, the A40 at White City, was the site of pretty nasty regular crimes where for a while people were being robbed whilst sitting in their cars in the traffic jam. So pretty much being mugged in their cars. Not by EU immigrants though.

Source please ?

 

[Jake]

...... No - it's not their fault AT ALL.

However, the sheer scale of immigration has caused problems, discussed in detail elsewhere. It seems right and proper that such matters, the conflicting arguments of economic advantage and of pressure on public services and housing,......

But EVERYBODY puts "pressure on public services and housing".

And those are policies entirely under the control of Westminster, in which the EU has zero influence. Immigrants then get the blame for the results of daft policies like selling off council housing without permitting the proceeds to be used to build replacements, and the decision to squeeze the NHS budget as part of austerity measures. Neither of which are remotely anything to do with the EU.

 

[Cheshirechappie]

Immigration was most certainly a major issue. However, it wasn't hatred of immigrants, it was a reaction to the powerlessness of ordinary people to change things through the ballot box.

Now ordinary people are going to find out how powerless they are to change things even with a referendum.

-No one's going to be sent home or deported, that was made clear throughout the campaign, so the same brown faces and Polski Sklep shops that distressed voters yesterday will still be there tomorrow.
-The majority of immigrants come from non EU countries, the referendum doesn't change that.
-The next government's most pressing task will be to deal with a European continent just 22 miles away. They'll cut deals, they'll compromise. That's what we pay them to do.
-We'll hang on to the European Passport for financial services, we have to or else we won't have the money we need. To retain that we'll compromise on free movement of people and we'll compromise on contributions to the European budget.
-We'll get concessions on things like the European Court of Human Rights and the Working Hours Directive. These will be trumpeted as a very big deal, but we all know that to most people they're really not.

Five years from now the ordinary person will be completely stumped if you ask them to point to one concrete and material example of how their lives have improved or even changed due to the referendum. And if you doubt the veracity of that claim then test it for yourself, set out clearly how you expect your life to improve and change in concrete practical terms, and then monitor the progress over the coming years.

Consider how matters might be different had the UK voted to leave the EEC in 1975. That might give some idea. We'd still be discussing immigration, but we could vote out a government that was getting it wrong if enough people thought so. We'd be trading with the whole world, able to make trade agreements with whoever we chose. We'd control our own energy policy, and our own courts would be interpreting our own laws. We'd be the outward-looking nation we have been for centuries, engaging with the whole world on our own terms, instead of an outpost of a failing supra-national bloc.

On Thursday, a majority decided to be governed from Westminster rather than Brussels. Speaking for myself, I voted Leave because I value freedom and democracy over powerlessness and oligarchy. History suggests that over time, free, democratic nations tend to do better than ones with more controlling, less democratically-accountable governments. That's good enough for me.

Edit to add - I cast my vote as much for the next generation, and the one after, as for mine. I want them to inherit a free, democratic, stable, outward-looking country. I don't want to bequeath a controlled, closely-managed outpost of the Brussels empire. I voted on the basis of what might happen over the next few decades, not what might happen next week.

I very much agree with Random Orbital Bob's comment that it would be nice to think that the EU might take the UK vote as a hint, and become more accountable to ordinary people. Sadly, so far, I see absolutely no signs of that happening, despite agitation from people across Europe. Certainly, the noises emanating from the EU during the referendum campaign gave no real hope of this. Maybe one day - change through the ballot box is preferable to change more violently.

 

[Rhossydd]

Source please ?

I was there, friends of mine were mugged.
Back in the 90s there was still street crime, but very few EU immigrants.

 

[NazNomad]

This place is going to be unbearable when we have the 'Bring Back Hanging' Referendum.

 

[Terry - Somerset]

Some of the smoke needs to clear. EU may want a swift resolution but nothing happens till the UK gives notice under Article 50.

When the Head of State (Cameron/Boris/Queen??) gives notice they need Parliament behind them. Even if notice does not require Parliamentary consent, all associated exit critical legislation will need a majority.

So I think things will be stalled until the ducks are in a row. Although the Tories command a majority it is insufficiently large for any new Tory leadership to rely upon even with a party whip - a few defections would derail the process.

A general election would not guarantee a Brexit supporting majority and could risk a hung Parliament.

So we are breaking new democratic ground - we have had a referendum giving a marginal victory to the Leave campaign and a democratically elected Parliament whose members are substantially (65%+) in favour of Remain. A political car crash waiting to happen.

 

[RogerS]

...... No - it's not their fault AT ALL.

However, the sheer scale of immigration has caused problems, discussed in detail elsewhere. It seems right and proper that such matters, the conflicting arguments of economic advantage and of pressure on public services and housing,......

But EVERYBODY puts "pressure on public services and housing".

And those are policies entirely under the control of Westminster, in which the EU has zero influence. Immigrants then get the blame for the results of daft policies like selling off council housing without permitting the proceeds to be used to build replacements, and the decision to squeeze the NHS budget as part of austerity measures. Neither of which are remotely anything to do with the EU.

But you cannot deny that if the population increase by x% then there will be a corresponding increase in the demand for resources.

 

[Jacob]

Some of the smoke needs to clear. EU may want a swift resolution but nothing happens till the UK gives notice under Article 50.

When the Head of State (Cameron/Boris/Queen??) gives notice they need Parliament behind them. Even if notice does not require Parliamentary consent, all associated exit critical legislation will need a majority.

So I think things will be stalled until the ducks are in a row. Although the Tories command a majority it is insufficiently large for any new Tory leadership to rely upon even with a party whip - a few defections would derail the process.

A general election would not guarantee a Brexit supporting majority and could risk a hung Parliament.

So we are breaking new democratic ground - we have had a referendum giving a marginal victory to the Leave campaign and a democratically elected Parliament whose members are substantially (65%+) in favour of Remain. A political car crash waiting to happen.

Except Parliament is sovereign and the decision rests with them. The referendum has no legal power; to ignore it would be politically difficult to say the least - but not impossible.

 

[Wuffles]

Some of the smoke needs to clear. EU may want a swift resolution but nothing happens till the UK gives notice under Article 50.

When the Head of State (Cameron/Boris/Queen??) gives notice they need Parliament behind them. Even if notice does not require Parliamentary consent, all associated exit critical legislation will need a majority.

So I think things will be stalled until the ducks are in a row. Although the Tories command a majority it is insufficiently large for any new Tory leadership to rely upon even with a party whip - a few defections would derail the process.

A general election would not guarantee a Brexit supporting majority and could risk a hung Parliament.

So we are breaking new democratic ground - we have had a referendum giving a marginal victory to the Leave campaign and a democratically elected Parliament whose members are substantially (65%+) in favour of Remain. A political car crash waiting to happen.

Something popped up this morning about the Scottish Parliament's consent being required - or something like that, could be made up. Here's a link: https://twitter.com/Jonathan__Leake/sta ... wsrc%5Etfw

 

[RogerS]

..... hard working tax paying immigrants. ....

True, in theory they all pay tax (I'm assuming you mean income tax) but my understanding is that if they are not living here for a year then when they leave they can apply for a tax refund. Since many of them are seasonal workers and I am also sure that some will play the system, just exactly how many of them pay income tax (that is not refunded back to them) is open to debate.

 

[Jacob]

..... hard working tax paying immigrants. ....

True, in theory they all pay tax (I'm assuming you mean income tax) but my understanding is that if they are not living here for a year then when they leave they can apply for a tax refund. Since many of them are seasonal workers and I am also sure that some will play the system, just exactly how many of them pay income tax (that is not refunded back to them) is open to debate.

We all "play the system" one way or another.

 

[thetyreman]

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/ho ... 01311.html

 

[dynax]

My personal view to move forward, would be for the Queen to abdicate, she has done enough for us and time she spent the remainder of her years without the weight of this on her shoulders, William to take sovereignty, and start the A50 proceedings, the banks and business ministers to start new negotiations for trade, then in a few months let a new set of parliament and prime minister candidates stand for election,