Who is in and who is out?

[Andy Kev.]

I'll have to live with it Phil, a lot longer than you.

Perhaps 28% weren't happy to go with the flow, but rather felt that they were too daunted and uninformed to be responsible for such a decision. I'd bet that a similar proportion cast their vote based on an uneasiness about people from countries they don't know much about, and vague ideas about jobs that they overheard at the pub.

The campaigns were a shambles on both sides (I didn't even receive my 'impartial guide to voting, might reflect why my area's turnout was one of the worst in the country) and I think that even if it somehow does work out for the best, the last couple of months have been fairly shameful.

One of the fundamentals is that it was a secret ballot i.e. it is none of our business if somebody doesn't/does tell us why they did/didn't vote. Therefore any speculation as to why somebody acted the way they did is utterly futile.

Neither you, I nor anybody else can say why 28% didn't turn up. About the only reasonable guess we can make is that they weren't sufficiently motivated to vote for whatever reason. One of the features of the campaign has been a suspicion on the part of Remain that all Brexiters are either thick, bigoted, ill-informed or a combination of all three. I've heard talk from supposedly educated, upper middle class people which proved to me that you hear things at home counties dinner parties which are as daft as things you might hear in a Geordie Pub. And of course you can hear sensible things in both places too. The point of democracy is that it is a great leveller, the vote of a chip butty eating bin man counting just as much as that of a ciabatta chomping Guardian sub-editor.

We now know what the orders of the electorate are, so it's time to start pulling together as a Nation.

I agree that the campaigns were a bit of a disgrace.

 

[Eric The Viking]

I agree that the campaigns were a bit of a disgrace.

Absolutely right, on both sides.

 

[paulm]

It's a sad, bad day. Whatever happened to the spirit of tolerance and compassion that did once characterise Britain? However it was dressed up in spurious economics and claims about democracy, the Leave campaign was at heart a vicious, racist denial of the rights of anyone apart from Little Englanders. How could so many of our compatriots (at least south of the Border) fall for these arguments, especially when presented by unsavoury characters like Farage, Gove and Johnson?

No it's not, and no it wasn't, what an absurd and hysterical thing to say.

 

[Phil Pascoe]

^Certainly.^ I see Cameron is already playing for time. It won't be decided til October whether to serve article 50.

 

[Wuffles]

It's great that Donald Trump has just said "it's a good thing, they're taking their Country back". He's no terrifying lunatic.

Some quality graffiti in Bristol.

 

[MIGNAL]

^Certainly.^ I see Cameron is already playing for time. It won't be decided til October whether to serve article 50.

He can't, he's dead in the water. It's for the new leader to decide the timescale.

 

[No skills]

So many Mystic Megs in such a small place :lol:

Let's hope the price of the domino isn't driven too high.

 

[RogerS]

Parliament is sovereign.
The leave vote is not legally binding and if it proves impossible to get the mythical brexit "good deals" we could be back to square one very quickly.

Brexiters are already trimming away and saying it's too soon or may not be necessary to implement article 50. I think they know it's a stupid decision and, in time, yesterday will be seen as a passing protest vote.

The big Brexit mistake is in not having anything in place before the referendum. Hoping to negotiate (with EU and the rest of the world) after having committed to leaving, is basically dead stupid.

So it'll be years of fudge with everybody a loser.

I'd like to think that you're right, Jacob, and that it is seen as a passing protest vote but sadly the damage will already have been done. Already this morning, how many hundreds of billions off the footsie? J P Morgan announcing that they will be relocating to Europe. Bank shares down - what - 25% ? Like them or not, the financial service sector is vitally important to the economy of this country. It's all our pension funds that is being hit. I really don't think that the Brexiteers fully realise their folly.

As an aside, I thought that Cameron made a very dignified and statesmanlike speech this morning. And the thought of Boris as PM fills me with horror.

 

[Benchwayze]

The media again... Some female presenter just pronounced the Nation as divided. No it isn't, no more than it is after any vote, election or referendum. Come on folks; time to pull together again and get the Nation on a new but steady course. :idea:

Or am I now cured of Festoolitis Lustus Impulsivii? :wink:

 

[Eric The Viking]

Parliament is sovereign.
The leave vote is not legally binding and if it proves impossible to get the mythical brexit "good deals" we could be back to square one very quickly.

Brexiters are already trimming away and saying it's too soon or may not be necessary to implement article 50. I think they know it's a stupid decision and, in time, yesterday will be seen as a passing protest vote.

The big Brexit mistake is in not having anything in place before the referendum. Hoping to negotiate (with EU and the rest of the world) after having committed to leaving, is basically dead stupid.

So it'll be years of fudge with everybody a loser.

I'd like to think that you're right, Jacob, and that it is seen as a passing protest vote but sadly the damage will already have been done. Already this morning, how many hundreds of billions off the footsie? J P Morgan announcing that they will be relocating to Europe. Bank shares down - what - 25% ? Like them or not, the financial service sector is vitally important to the economy of this country. It's all our pension funds that is being hit. I really don't think that the Brexiteers fully realise their folly.

As an aside, I thought that Cameron made a very dignified and statesmanlike speech this morning. And the thought of Boris as PM fills me with horror.

Can't see it happening really (Boris, I mean). the pound will bounce back, and anyway exporters (whom my pension is heavily invested in) will be pleased at the improvement in their competitiveness. The Footsie will also recover quickly.

Bank shares should be penny shares right now, as in many cases their loan books still look dead dodgy. We never saw the major adjustment that was due after the sub-prime crisis and the problems with the eurozone - it's been due for a long time, and this may have precipitated it, but it didn't cause it.

Explain to me what negative interest rates are all about please, because I think at that point the financial world has collectively lost any right to be taken seriously. Yet that's the case in parts of the eurozone right now.

I've said elsewhere I think the referendum was a huge mistake, and not good for the country at all. I KNOW we should leave the EU but this was not the right way to go about it. Instead it's the start of a constitutional crisis, which might even end the monarchy (which side should the queen take in a pinch? I wouldn't want to call that one!).

The folly isn't Brexit. It was Cameron trying to finally silence the eurorealists in his own party, and on the Brexit side, Farage thinking this was a short cut to EU escape.

Yes it will be messy. But remaining in the EU is very much the wrong answer, as political parties all over the rest of Europe will tell you.

 

[RogerS]

I'm not so sure, John. A general election result lasts for four/five years. And general elections come and go, and so whatever the result, we shrug our shoulders knowing full well that we'll get another chance to vote in four/five years time. But this referendum isn't like that, at all. No way. It is absolutely earth-shattering.

 

[Jake]

Well we certainly will be living in interesting times.

The vote is the vote and I will be surprised if Scotland stays now, and without them this was an overwhelming vote for leave.

On the upside for me personally the chaos in the markets and economy should stack up a decade's work or more, never mind the legislative tangle there is going to be etc. That doesn't fill me with any relief or pleasure though. I have a leaden feeling about it all, but that's because I do not believe in the upside which has been painted and see lots of downside. I hope I am wrong.

Let's hope the majority got the decision right - I obviously in the end thought not but it's all a matter of judgment and there is only one way to find out.

Hypothetically, it would be good to have a mirror image country which went the other way as a control group to test out the balance of the arguments (I think I would move there myself but that may be an excess of caution).

Hearing Farage talk about bullets this morning was a rare moment of true colours.

 

[Phil Pascoe]

^Certainly.^ I see Cameron is already playing for time. It won't be decided til October whether to serve article 50.

He can't, he's dead in the water. It's for the new leader to decide the timescale.

He's already played for time - he could have served it tomorrow.

 

[thetyreman]

well done for destroying our country, if you voted out.

 

[Jake]

^Certainly.^ I see Cameron is already playing for time. It won't be decided til October whether to serve article 50.

He can't, he's dead in the water. It's for the new leader to decide the timescale.

He's already played for time - he could have served it tomorrow.

Mignal is right- he has to hand control over the exit process to a person who wanted exit and is the leader of the government. He couldn't do otherwise. That new PM will have to choose how and when to position the negotiations for transitional and replacement arrangements, and how and when to trigger A50 will be a critical part of that.

Ship-steadying does not mean it won't happen. Reality is here, and I don't think you will find many on the losing side fantasising about it would have been different if there had been more pens and less pencils in the voting stations. You can lose the fear that we live in an EU-led dictatorship now!

 

[Phil Pascoe]

"The big Brexit mistake is in not having anything in place before the referendum. Hoping to negotiate (with EU and the rest of the world) after having committed to leaving, is basically dead stupid." - Jacob

It's stupid to negotiate on an outcome that may never arise - it doesn't matter a jot what anyone says or doesn't until it's a fait accompli.

 

[Jacob]

The vote was to stay or go. We have decided to go.
The vote wasn't to attempt to renegotiate and only then to consider going. Not least because its not clear what would be re-negotiated; there is no agenda, just a lot of irritable and angry moaning + a big element of old fashioned anti-immigrant nonsense.

 

[paulm]

well done for destroying our country, if you voted out.

:roll:

 

[n0legs]

Excellent news, bye bye EU.

 

[BearTricks]

Explain to me what negative interest rates are all about please, because I think at that point the financial world has collectively lost any right to be taken seriously. Yet that's the case in parts of the eurozone right now.

Negative interest rates are generally mischaracterised. They don't refer to every day interest rates, but rather a specific interest rate that banks charge each other to borrow money outside of business hours. If done properly it doesn't tend to effect the general public.

In other news, France has overtaken us to become the new 5th biggest economy in the world.