Terry - Somerset
Established Member
Rather than focussing on the past we should focus on the problem as it is now, and how it can best be resolved.
Ukraine
Annexation of Crimea about which the West did nothing, and the invasion of Eastern Ukraine in 2022 has happened.
Current issue is the loss of life and damage being inflicted with neither Ukraine nor Russia prepared to concede. If the model of Russian aggression and Western support of Ukraine through supply of weaponry continues, the conflict may remain unresolved, possibly for a decade(s).
Any deal needs to saves face for Putin - he will not otherwise agree. The threat may be to provide more arms to Ukraine and allow them more flexibility to target Russian territory.
Zelensky does not want to concede defeat but is wholly reliant on Western support. There is a deal to be done - redraw the borders so Putin can claim success. Force Zelensky acceptance by (a) threatening withdrawal of support, and (b) possibly future membership of EU and/or NATO.
If successful - war stops immediately!!
Palestine and Israel
The loss of life and destruction of the infrastructure in Gaza horrifying. A comment by Biden in October 2023 - Israel should not act in anger, but with clarity over the end game. Biden may have been mindful of other conflicts - eg: Afghanistan.
Israel have every right to pursue the defeat of Hamas and Hezbollah, both of whom have the stated intent of wiping Israel from the map. Despite huge losses and being completely outgunned militarily they have not conceded. The public have suffered for their intransigence.
The real question is how to bring it to a conclusion - focus on the past is pointless - they could not agree on what day of the week yesterday was!
Possible Trump solutions:
The latter may involve replacement of Hamas with a new organisation, and with UN backing, agree independent Palestinian state. Levers he can pull - continued or enhanced military support to Israel. withdraw funding from UN, sanctions on non-compliant Arab states.
The outcome is less clear than for Ukraine - but Trumps inability to do detail and "hobnail boots" approach to negotiation is more likely to produce a rapid result than traditional diplomacy.
Ukraine
Annexation of Crimea about which the West did nothing, and the invasion of Eastern Ukraine in 2022 has happened.
Current issue is the loss of life and damage being inflicted with neither Ukraine nor Russia prepared to concede. If the model of Russian aggression and Western support of Ukraine through supply of weaponry continues, the conflict may remain unresolved, possibly for a decade(s).
Any deal needs to saves face for Putin - he will not otherwise agree. The threat may be to provide more arms to Ukraine and allow them more flexibility to target Russian territory.
Zelensky does not want to concede defeat but is wholly reliant on Western support. There is a deal to be done - redraw the borders so Putin can claim success. Force Zelensky acceptance by (a) threatening withdrawal of support, and (b) possibly future membership of EU and/or NATO.
If successful - war stops immediately!!
Palestine and Israel
The loss of life and destruction of the infrastructure in Gaza horrifying. A comment by Biden in October 2023 - Israel should not act in anger, but with clarity over the end game. Biden may have been mindful of other conflicts - eg: Afghanistan.
Israel have every right to pursue the defeat of Hamas and Hezbollah, both of whom have the stated intent of wiping Israel from the map. Despite huge losses and being completely outgunned militarily they have not conceded. The public have suffered for their intransigence.
The real question is how to bring it to a conclusion - focus on the past is pointless - they could not agree on what day of the week yesterday was!
Possible Trump solutions:
- withdraw US support - probably unlikely given the influential Jewish community in the US
- step up US support and challenge the UN and other Arab states to implement a solution
The latter may involve replacement of Hamas with a new organisation, and with UN backing, agree independent Palestinian state. Levers he can pull - continued or enhanced military support to Israel. withdraw funding from UN, sanctions on non-compliant Arab states.
The outcome is less clear than for Ukraine - but Trumps inability to do detail and "hobnail boots" approach to negotiation is more likely to produce a rapid result than traditional diplomacy.