US Election November 5th

[Terry - Somerset]

Rather than focussing on the past we should focus on the problem as it is now, and how it can best be resolved.

Ukraine
Annexation of Crimea about which the West did nothing, and the invasion of Eastern Ukraine in 2022 has happened.

Current issue is the loss of life and damage being inflicted with neither Ukraine nor Russia prepared to concede. If the model of Russian aggression and Western support of Ukraine through supply of weaponry continues, the conflict may remain unresolved, possibly for a decade(s).

Any deal needs to saves face for Putin - he will not otherwise agree. The threat may be to provide more arms to Ukraine and allow them more flexibility to target Russian territory.

Zelensky does not want to concede defeat but is wholly reliant on Western support. There is a deal to be done - redraw the borders so Putin can claim success. Force Zelensky acceptance by (a) threatening withdrawal of support, and (b) possibly future membership of EU and/or NATO.

If successful - war stops immediately!!

Palestine and Israel
The loss of life and destruction of the infrastructure in Gaza horrifying. A comment by Biden in October 2023 - Israel should not act in anger, but with clarity over the end game. Biden may have been mindful of other conflicts - eg: Afghanistan.

Israel have every right to pursue the defeat of Hamas and Hezbollah, both of whom have the stated intent of wiping Israel from the map. Despite huge losses and being completely outgunned militarily they have not conceded. The public have suffered for their intransigence.

The real question is how to bring it to a conclusion - focus on the past is pointless - they could not agree on what day of the week yesterday was!

Possible Trump solutions:

• withdraw US support - probably unlikely given the influential Jewish community in the US
• step up US support and challenge the UN and other Arab states to implement a solution

The former would prolong conflict - for how long is debatable as we don't know the extent of Israel equipment reserves and manufacturing capability.

The latter may involve replacement of Hamas with a new organisation, and with UN backing, agree independent Palestinian state. Levers he can pull - continued or enhanced military support to Israel. withdraw funding from UN, sanctions on non-compliant Arab states.

The outcome is less clear than for Ukraine - but Trumps inability to do detail and "hobnail boots" approach to negotiation is more likely to produce a rapid result than traditional diplomacy.

 

[Jacob]

....

Israel have every right to pursue the defeat of Hamas and Hezbollah,

Arguable.
Hamas and Hezbollah can both be viewed as resistance fighters against an invading enemy.
Gaza is a prison camp for people thrown off their own lands
Good articles here worth reading, from a Jewish publication. https://www.jewishvoiceforlabour.org.uk/article/frequently-asked-questions-on-israel-palestine/
Palestinian cause gets very under represented in UK media - things could have been very different. Many Jews worldwide, and the UN, regard the Israeli-right as guilty of war crimes over a long period from well before Oct last year.
https://www.ohchr.org/en/press-rele...s-and-crimes-against-humanity-israeli-attacks
One thing looks very likely - the hostages are probably all dead, mostly through Israeli bombardment.
God knows what Trump's solution would be. Maybe to stop arming Israel and talk to Iran, Qatar, other Arabs, about peace and Palestine? Probably the only realistic way.

 

[Jameshow]

Because Democrats were victims of post covid inflation.

And also because the lies and propaganda of right wing populism are very alluring, it's a formula that works very well.....you are a good example

Why is rightwing thinking popularist and propaganda?

The same could be said for left wing thinking?

It's a different viewpoint which many on here cannot seem to understand. I for one am neither right or left wing.

Morally right the right

Economically to the right, we need entrepreneurs and business owners..

Wealth inequality to the left.... why do the right get richer whilst the poor pay more for food, energy and insurance...

NHS and Welfare to the left...

Social justice to the right....

 

[Jacob]

Why is rightwing thinking popularist and propaganda?

Because it is aimed at persuading the majority to submit to a poorer quality of life in order to keep the mega rich rich, under the pretence that this is somehow good for all.

PS to quote Jamie Driscoll:
"Neoliberalism boils down to simple proposition. Let rich people invest in whatever way works for them. After all, if they didn’t know what they were doing, they wouldn’t be rich.
It is not free-market economics. Neoliberalism uses the state to protect the interests of the wealthy. Using taxpayers to subsidise their corporations. Using laws to protect their monopolies. Setting up cash cows like PFI. Creating regulatory frameworks so they can’t go to jail for dumping tonnes of sewage into rivers. It is the capture of the state by the megarich."

The same could be said for left wing thinking?

Not really. The left is about how to manage things for the benefit of all, with quality of life as the priority, over and above market economics and rule by finance.

 

[woodieallen]

.... His "policies" will effect everyone, not just his people.....

Welcome to the club. If we had a General Election tomorrow, Two Tier would be history. His ideology has ****ed up so, so many people's dreams and aspirations. NB 'Dream' and 'aspiration' do not occur in the Labour dictionary so don't waste time looking for them.

 

[RobinBHM]

There is a deal to be done - redraw the borders so Putin can claim success. Force Zelensky acceptance by (a) threatening withdrawal of support, and (b) possibly future membership of EU and/or NATO.

Putin can't be trusted to do any deal.

He would do the deal, take the land and then spend a couple of years rebuilding.

The best time to defeat Putin is now, he has burnt through huge numbers of men and equipment.

Putin would only agree to do a deal if Ukraine stays neutral and never joins EU.

The EU needs to step up and ensure Ukraine prevail, if they don't they will just have to deal with a more powerful Putin in a couple of years....they've only got themselves to blame for buying cheap Russian gas and funding Putins war chest.

 

[RobinBHM]

Welcome to the club. If we had a General Election tomorrow, Two Tier would be history. His ideology has ****ed up so, so many people's dreams and aspirations. NB 'Dream' and 'aspiration' do not occur in the Labour dictionary so don't waste time looking for them.

What do you think about the dreams and aspirations of people who have suffered over a decade of stagnant wages, seen property buying out of reach, declining living standards, massive NHS waiting lists, a destructive brexit, increasing poverty, decimation of public services over the last 14 Years?

Oh and from 2019 onwards the previous govt put tax policies in place that increase tax burden by £80b

Also perhaps you can explain how people feel about the austerity years which saw the wealthiest massively I crease their income and assets whilst ordinary people people got steadily worse off.

 

[RobinBHM]

Why is rightwing thinking popularist and propaganda?

The same could be said for left wing thinking?

It's a different viewpoint which many on here cannot seem to understand. I for one am neither right or left wing.

Morally right the right

Economically to the right, we need entrepreneurs and business owners..

Wealth inequality to the left.... why do the right get richer whilst the poor pay more for food, energy and insurance...

NHS and Welfare to the left...

Social justice to the right....

Please may I just clarify:

Right wing populism is a specific term.

I am not suggesting right wing thinking is populist.

Farage, Trump and Johnson are populists, One nation Tories like Cameron are not. To be honest the original Conservative party doesn't exist currently, the millions of small Conservatives aren't populists and don't have a home

 

[Terry - Somerset]

Putin can't be trusted to do any deal.

He would do the deal, take the land and then spend a couple of years rebuilding.

The best time to defeat Putin is now, he has burnt through huge numbers of men and equipment.

Putin would only agree to do a deal if Ukraine stays neutral and never joins EU.

The EU needs to step up and ensure Ukraine prevail, if they don't they will just have to deal with a more powerful Putin in a couple of years....they've only got themselves to blame for buying cheap Russian gas and funding Putins war chest.

Wishful thinking!

Russia has 4 times the manpower of Ukraine. Putin is unconcerned for human rights and well being of either his enemy or his troops. He seems happy to put the convicted into the front line and sign up North Korean support.

Assuming Ukraine can ever win is implausible, however attractive the prospect. NATO forces on the ground would be an incredibly risky escalation - a non-starter. Without a deal conflict will continue until there is a change of leadership in Russia - could be another decade.

Russia spent 10 years in Afghanistan following the invasion in 1979 under Brezhnev. Withdrawal was initiated by Gorbachev - a very different character to Putin.

 

[RobinBHM]

Wishful thinking!

I disagree.

The idea that doing a deal with Putin is a solution is wishful thinking.

Russia has 4 times the manpower of Ukraine

Russia burns through men probably 4x faster.

Assuming Ukraine can ever win is implausible

Ukraine could’ve won easily in 2022 had the West given what Ukraine needed before Russian troops had the opportunity to build defences.


The best chance of defeating Ukraine is now, Putin is struggling to maintain supply of new men without losing support domestically

Surrendering to him now and allowing him to rebuild is indeed a recipe to ensure he can’t be beaten.

Without a deal

With a deal there is no chance of ending the war, just pausing it.

Putin has already violated 2 Minsk agreements

 

[ey_tony]

So, communism worked for them.

I enjoyed your account, I've not been tho I did some work on a Russian emigré and would have loved to visit. He spent time in Siberia, sounds pretty challenging.

It was a learning experience for me. The friends I had and people I met were all far more interested in health and fitness than your average Brit, they really did take it seriously.
I didn't see the obesity we have in the West, with exercise and fitness together with surprisingly care about what they ate as the norm. Athletics and swimming was almost compulsory to them.

The younger women really made the best of their appearances at all times.
I used to pop into town on public transport and on any of the crowded concertina busses during the day there was at least one if not more young women who looked like Western fashion models....there was so many it was almost unbelievable. Even just going to work of for a day's shopping they were better dressed than most British women going for a night out.
With the first snows of winter starting in September they dressed in elegant long winter coats and fur hats, some looked absolutely stunning. As I say where glamour was concerned, they left many Western women standing and took their appearance seriously.

I was chatting to one elderly gentleman who was a friend's father and it was -18 deg C outside and he said you're lucky it's usually -30 C at this time of year.
When I got off the plane in Chelyabinsk airport in January, there were no walkways, it was a provincial airport so when got of the plane's steps you stepped onto the tarmac and into 12" of snow...that was just normal.
From September on they didn't need freezers as it was so cold they just placed food on their balconies and it stayed frozen.

This is a side to Russian people that we never hear about...they're not all peasants. Some of my friends were university lecturers teaching 'English' as their subject. It was amazing how many young people could speak English. If people heard me speaking English and they could speak it they'd come up and introduce themselves.

The young people were more interested in Western style freedoms and democracy whereas the older generations preferred the traditional principles of communism which I suppose I can understand.
Under communism they never had to look for work and knew they weren't going to be made redundant, they knew they would be able to have holidays and stay warm in winter months. Utilities even when Soviet era had ended were cheap so while they didn't have the material goods that we have, they had less insecurities that we have.

What I admired about the Russian system was the control they had over anyone entering the country.
Unless it's changed in recent year, back then there were three types of visa. The tourist visa where you had to stay in a local hotel and register with the local Ovir (police) and were only allowed to stay in that hotel.

Then there was the educational visa which is self explanatory and the one I used was the invitation visa to stay with friends but if your friend didn't own the property then I would have had to have written permission from the owner of the property to allow me to stay and to show to the local Ovir...you also had to specify exactly which cities you were visiting...everything was really tightly controlled and just a pity that we here in the UK don't have something similar.

The only trouble I ever experienced was in Domodedovo airport where a couple of shifty Georgian looking scrotes tried to lift my wallet by bumping into me. I was walking around for exercise but was aware of them so had my wallet where they couldn't get it when they tried it on.
However within two minutes the airport police had them at gun-point and whisked them off. The police had observed what they'd tried to do to and they didn't mess around.

Eventually my close friends migrated to other parts of the world so I've not been back to Russia but I still keep in touch with my friends and I have to say I have fond memories of my times visiting my friends in Russia.

 

[ey_tony]

American here
Trump says a lot of things, half of it is what he thinks people want to hear and the other half is what provokes people.
His "so called plans" as some of you like to call them, are just vindictive, petty, reactionary, responses to his own perceived slights.
There are no "plan" for governing or improving the lives of the citizens. Have you ever heard him say a word about actually helping people out or lifting them up?
Could you imagine your PM not sending aid to a certain district because he thought they didn't vote for him? These are not qualities in a leader. (This happened to California after a wildfire)
People seem to forget about Moslem bans, Family separations, lying about the severity of covid, strong-arming Ukraine for aide that was already promised, just to get at his political rival and that was the first year or so.
The next four years will be a train wreck inside a dumpster fire.
His childlike emotional state and the nonsense he spews forth will get people killed, there is no doubt at all.
He lied to his base voters, promised them everything their neanderthal instincts said they wanted, now he has to deliver. None of those people who voted for him can see past tomorrow IMO, they will never admit their mistake, few do. His "policies" will effect everyone, not just his people.They will be forced to live with the consequences of their actions along with the rest of us.

Do I take it that you didn't vote for him?

 

[Ed Weber]

Do I take it that you didn't vote for him?

Can't get much past you

 

[ey_tony]

I might just be on a bit of a roll here but you aren't a Democrat by any chance, are you?

 

[Ed Weber]

It's like you guys over there are clairvoyant or something

 

[ey_tony]

Call it intuition or maybe just beginner's luck.

 

[Phil Pascoe]

One thing looks very likely - the hostages are probably all dead, mostly through Israeli bombardment.

Unbelievable.

 

[gcusick]

Never mind what Trump has promised, let's look closer to home at the promises Starmer made.

Starmer promised the electorate no more sleaze..haaa! They were at it even before they came to power.
He berated the Tories for even suggesting removal of the winter fuel payment.. He's a hypocrite and liar to boot.
He and his chancellor pretended things were worse than they were aware of when in fact everyone else knew of the supposed black hole in the finances apart from them. How much of a donkey do they have to be to be socialists?

They claimed that they wouldn't tax 'working' people.. seems for starters he didn't understand exactly what 'working people' means.. he's a muppet and a liar.
The list goes on so I wouldn't criticise Trump or the people who voted for him if I were you after you and others voted for the donkey whisperer Starmer...you don't even have to wait until spring for these donkeys to break their word.
By next spring everyone is going to be poorer.

What was that phrase the Brexiters used? Ah yes, I remember: “You lost, get over it”.

 

[RobinBHM]

What was that phrase the Brexiters used? Ah yes, I remember: “You lost, get over it”.

But just like Brexit supporters, Trump supporters won’t accept the inevitable failure.

Everybody lost due as a result of brexit
Everybody will lose as a result of Trump.

Nb when I say everybody, I don’t include the very wealthy as they win in both cases

 

[Blackswanwood]

A little about the Russian people from my experience.

That’s an interesting insight. I spent a couple of weeks in St Petersburg in 2002 with work and recall the drab high rise housing (and obvious low standard of living) once out of the city centre. The people were very friendly indeed and there were some “fond memories” of the Soviet era particularly among older people. Alcoholism was a big issue.

My favourite memory is spending a Saturday morning firing AK47s and a collection of other Russian weapons. The trip was organised by the hotel concierge. On arrival at an old warehouse we found it was being run by four enterprising Russian soldiers who were supplementing their income by running shooting sessions on the side with their service weapons. It was possible to buy a Makarov pistol but I thought my wife would prefer some duty free perfume …

It’s Putin and his cronies, not the Russian people, who are the problem. My guess is that a visitor to Germany prior to WWII would have also concluded the same thing.