THE FOURTH OF JULY

[sploo]

I know, but it is frightening how little some people have learned from history. Left with simplistic self-fooling notions as if English people are innately good so nothing they think or support can be fascist because they opposed German Nazis in WWII. While they support the modern equivalent of Mosley who would have had us on the other side.

Agreed. The problem is, was, and always has been that...

 

[sploo]

Successive governments over the last 45 years have lasted between 10-14 years. After a decade any party in power will have accumulated baggage (scandals, failures, etc). External events (financial crisis, pandemic, war) can tip public sentiment into very negative territory.

Measures need to be meaningful, achievable and provide a balanced assessment of degrees of achievement. External events - governments need to deal with them. The Tories were still roundly blamed for a cost of living crisis despite being largely caused by Ukraine war.

Whilst world events are always a major factor, I think we can be pretty certain that an awful lot of the problems over recent years can be firmly laid at the feet of the direct actions of the Conservative party, and what they've become (Brexit, Truss budget, dodgy PPE contracts etc).

Even for those that subscribe to the "they're all as bad as one another" argument, I think it's fair to say that some governments can be more worse than others (with apologies to George Orwell).

 

[Spectric]

Anyway, off to the polling station to put my mark in the correct box.

Is there one !! Maybe in Wales as you have already been experiencing a labour leader so just a case of do you want more of the same or you do have the choice for Plaid Cymru. Not one party has all the right answers, so maybe we should have some form of pick & mix so rather than vote for a party we vote for the parts to make a party .

 

[Jake]

Is there one !! Maybe in Wales as you have already been experiencing a labour leader so just a case of do you want more of the same or you do have the choice for Plaid Cymru. Not one party has all the right answers, so maybe we should have some form of pick & mix so rather than vote for a party we vote for the parts to make a party .

I think this is an election for selective tactical voting on an anyone-but-Tory basis, to dump them from being the official opposition. If necessary, Labour should allow some MPs to cross the floor to the LDs to achieve that. Got to be ruthless and absolutely crush them so Modern Day Mosley can't reverse his little fascist project into a Tory rump that still gets short money etc.

So I expect to be somewhat disappointed come what may, but still have some hope.

 

[Spectric]

So what will Starmers first decisions be when he forms the new cabinet ? I think that he must deliver a decent payrise to the NHS staff and resolve all the strikes, if that strike continues then it would show him as being no different to the conservatives. Then he must lay all his cards on the table and be honest with everyone as he has nothing to lose, that will be interesting.

 

[selectortone]

so maybe we should have some form of pick & mix so rather than vote for a party we vote for the parts to make a party

We have to use the system we've got no matter how loaded in favour of large parties it may be so use your vote.

Perhaps, in the unlikely event of the Lib Dems getting more seats than the Tories, we might have a serious debate about some form of PR, but ultimately, as far as the two main parties are concerned, any departure from FPTP would be like turkeys voting for Christmas.

 

[Spectric]

Yes Turkeys and westminster, to be truly democratic the people should be given the choice of FPTP, PR or something else and in return voting becomes mandatory.

 

[Jake]

We have had a referendum on PR (STV) and the people roundly rejected it. I understand referendum results stand for all eternity so we cannot betray them.

edit: AV not STV

 

[Blister]

I voted today at 9am

 

[sploo]

I've voted for my choice of lizards. Remember, if you don't vote, the wrong lizards may get in.

 

[Terry - Somerset]

Now most of the hurly-burly's done with just the last obstacle to get over, I wonder to what extent the UK election is just so much fiddling with deckchairs - watching the news reports from the US this last week, I can't understand why the Democrats can't find a leader more likely to win. Seems Biden/ the Democrats must be on course to lose. Given the fragile world order as it is at the moment, I dread to think what comes next for all of us if that's the case.
Anyway, off to the polling station to put my mark in the correct box. Now, if I could just find a photo ID...

In the UK, average life expectancy at age 80 is ~8 years. It may be somewhat greater for a US president with access to first class healthcare and diet.

The chance of either Trump or Biden completing a full term is probably little more than 50%.

The chances of either completing a presidential term mentally and physically capable is materially less than 50% - guess at 20-30%.

Given their huge responsibilities and power, It is disturbing the elected leader of the "free world" may be either dead or incapable before the end of their term.

 

[TRITON]

Have to say this is the most exciting election I've yet to witness.

Normally its all a bit bland. Tories in, spend their time fleecing the country to give money from the public purse direct to their friends and donors
Then labour comes in to sort out the mess the tories have made.
Then back to conservative, and so on and so forth.

This time round it appears, and this is probably because of the new extreme tories mk2(ie the reform party) it might look like the s***show that the tories are, might well be consigned to the twiddling thumbs section of Westminster.

They'll be sharing seats with the SNP

 

[Terry - Somerset]

We have had a referendum on PR (STV) and the people roundly rejected it. I understand referendum results stand for all eternity so we cannot betray them.

edit: AV not STV

Cameron had to agree to a referendum on an alternative voting system to get the LibDems on board in 2010. The LibDems had the power to make it a condition. As you say - roundly rejected.

Any party in power with a working majority is unlikely to support a change to FPTP. With a large majority of seats but only ~40% of the popular vote, Labour are not going to change the system.

Were the LibDems to win a majority of seats I suspect their enthusiasm for PR might diminish. Thus a change to the voting system is likely only with a seriously hung parliament where the relative "minnows" have influence.

 

[sploo]

In the UK, average life expectancy at age 80 is ~8 years. It may be somewhat greater for a US president with access to first class healthcare and diet.

The chance of either Trump or Biden completing a full term is probably little more than 50%.

The chances of either completing a presidential term mentally and physically capable is materially less than 50% - guess at 20-30%.

Given their huge responsibilities and power, It is disturbing the elected leader of the "free world" may be either dead or incapable before the end of their term.

I'd argue that one's morally dead and the other is already incapable

 

[Jacob]

I'd argue that one's morally dead and the other is already incapable

Strange parallels: nobody really wants either of the presidents/prime-ministers on offer.

 

[paulrbarnard]

This thread has left we with a warm glow. The unbounded believe that people, of all political persuasions, have that the world will ge a better place when their party is in power just highlights the eternal optimism of the human race.
I’m perhaps old enough and jaded enough to realise no mater who is in power their supporters will be making excuses for their failings at the next election.

 

[sploo]

Strange parallels: nobody really wants either of the presidents/prime-ministers on offer.

I'd argue that Starmer is at least compos mentis; something that I don't think could be said of Biden. Also, Rishi may be a classic out-of-touch Tory boy, but he's not on the (negative) level of Trump. So... at least there's some positives there...

 

[Rhossydd]

Perhaps, in the unlikely event of the Lib Dems getting more seats than the Tories, we might have a serious debate about some form of PR,

I doubt that. Even if the LibDems become the official opposition they won't have enough votes to make any headway against Labour policy. (assuming the polls are right)

What may change more, we can but hope, is that we see a more grown up approach to political debate in Westminster without the absurd nonsense of cat fighting at PMQs. That in turn may lead to a more rational national approach to politics.

 

[selectortone]

The unbounded believe that people, of all political persuasions, have that the world will ge a better place when their party is in power.

Not really. My main motivation, like most people I know, is to get shot of the feckless, lying, sleazy, self-enriching, entitled bunch of half-wits we have had the misfortune to be mis-ruled by for the last 14 years. I'd rather vote for Count Binface than that lot.

 

[Spectric]

is that we see a more grown up approach to political debate in Westminster without the absurd nonsense of cat fighting at PMQs.

I would suggest that there is more chance of the green party wining a massive majority and taking power or Jacob giving us a thread all about his new Tormek chissel sharpening experience and that it is the best thing since sliced bread.

There will be a lot less this time round because with a huge majority then Starmer is essentially a dictator and can just choose to ignore any comments as they will have no influence on any outcome. Under a Sir then there will be no chance of any wealth leveling up either and I dare say that it will be those that can least afford any more cost that will suffer from loss of services and more tax.