THE FOURTH OF JULY

[Jacob]

What is a "fair share"? How would you calculate it?
I think it would be impossible - there are too many variables.
More a case of raising enough, by one sort of progressive tax or another, to pay for what the country needs , and then seeing how that pans out, making adjustments and changes where it might seem necessary.
Clearly a very large amount can be taken from the very wealthy as it is surplus to their needs, and vice versa the poor, with all stages in between.
In WW2 income tax top rate reached 99.25%. Was that fair?
Or forget "fairness", it's not relevant, a red herring? Think more of practicable, necessary, etc etc.
Arguably it's now an emergency thanks to 14 years of tory misrule, not to mention Thatcher, brexit, covid, Truss, etc - maybe go for top rate 99.25% to get us back up to speed as fast as possible?

Oops forgot to add "Climate Change" as top emergency issue, bigger than any world war scenario ever, and most urgent.
It's amazing how we are lulled into ignoring it, except for a lot of interest in how the motor industry hopes to exploit the situation.
Are we all resigned to just letting it rip?

 

[selectortone]

A better leader would have been setting out a radical agenda for the next 5 years

Yes, that really worked for Jeremy Corbyn in 2019.

 

[Jacob]

Yes, that really worked for Jeremy Corbyn in 2019.

We aren't talking about Corbyn in 2019 and anyway the tories were riding high back then, with all the brexit b....cks and an unfortunately charismatic leader.

 

[niall Y]

Please, can we be spared from this bickering. I for one would like to read things that are relevant to the debate.

Mod edit : this^^^^
Noel

 

[RobinBHM]

heralding the start of the collapse of the EU

Not really, the right dont hold any real power, 70% of EU MEPs are not on the populist right,

but hey:

the move to the right in Europe is driven by 3 things:

1) Trump
2) refugees dispersing across Europe
3) social media

Social Media
-this is a big one, it has allowed the populist right to directly engage with the public and spread misinformation. places like youtube virtually radicalise people because the algorithms feed people with more material like theyve been watching.

I sometimes work with a carpenter on site, he knows nothing about politics or current affairs, but he believes large parts of Britain are under Sharia law, that all the problems of the UK are due to people arriving in small boats. Guess who he is going to vote for.

 

[RobinBHM]

Getting back to GE2024, Im wondering how much the Nigel Farage factor in regards to Reform will have on the election outcome

Looking back to UKIP and the Brexit Party, there hasnt been much evidence that Reform will win many seats, but they could get loads of Conservative votes in those marginals with tiny majorities


Although the Conservatives won 80 seats in 2019, its actually quite fragile because loads of seats were won with very tiny majorities.

very tiny differences in swing voters in marginals could have a very impact on the outcome in terms of the seats each party wins

 

[Terry - Somerset]

Looking forward to another 'muppet thursday' when all the country's muppets go out to vote for the rich and powerful snakes in the pit. Why do you continue? FPTP and no box to tick for no confidence? Do you all really think this is democracy? PAH!

Those not bothering to vote may be demonstrating "no confidence" in the political process. We know that ~30% of those entitled do not vote in general elections. We also know that many did not even register.

The logic flowing is that the "non-muppets" will normally form the largest group from the pool of potential voters. Thus they should form the government.

On wonders where such logic leads - a government so dis-interested in government they won't bother to do anything. Cabinet meetings - too much hassle. Debate in HoC - waste of time.

One could even regard this as a positive outcome - it stops politicians turning dramas into crises.

 

[niall Y]

the move to the right in Europe is driven by 3 things:

1) Trump
2) refugees dispersing across Europe
3) social media

I would have to question these particular assumptions. -

1) How can Trump have anything to do with Europe? In the context of America, Trump is a symptom of its malaise and decline, not its cause The Le Pens, in France, were prominent long before we had ever heard of Trump.

2) The failure of the EU get to grips with this problem is certainly adding to the rise of the far right To counteract this .Europe will have to modify its open borders and come up with a coherent policy on who to accept and how to return the rest to where they travelled from. This will involve difficult negotiations with many of the North African countries. Just as they have had to negotiate with Turkey.

3) Social media certainly has a role in dumbing down the debate. but the elephant in the room is economic decline. The French in particular are finding it hard to accept they are getting poorer and the effect this has had on their pensions. They do, of course, blame Macron for their woes, whereas he is just the messenger telling them what they do not wish to hear.

 

[Jacob]

I would have to question these particular assumptions. -

1) How can Trump have anything to do with Europe? In the context of America, Trump is a symptom of its malaise and decline, not its cause The Le Pens, in France, were prominent long before we had ever heard of Trump.

2) The failure of the EU get to grips with this problem is certainly adding to the rise of the far right To counteract this .Europe will have to modify its open borders and come up with a coherent policy on who to accept and how to return the rest to where they travelled from. This will involve difficult negotiations with many of the North African countries. Just as they have had to negotiate with Turkey.

3) Social media certainly has a role in dumbing down the debate. but the elephant in the room is economic decline. The French in particular are finding it hard to accept they are getting poorer and the effect this has had on their pensions. They do, of course, blame Macron for their woes, whereas he is just the messenger telling them what they do not wish to hear.

https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/...olicies-and-the-end-of-human-rights-in-europe

 

[RobinBHM]

How can Trump have anything to do with Europe?

1) money

"A recent openDemocracy investigation found that America’s Christian right spent at least $50 million of “dark money” to fund campaigns and advocacy in Europe over the past decade."
https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/5050/the-american-dark-money-behind-europes-far-right/

2) Trump does indeed have influence beyond America

France's far-right leader has told the BBC that Donald Trump's victory in the US has boosted her own chances of being elected president next year.

Marine Le Pen, who leads the French National Front (FN), said Mr Trump had "made possible what had previously been presented as impossible".

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-37964776


https://theconversation.com/europes...a-boost-from-trump-but-will-they-govern-72319

"Soon after Trump’s victory, the European far-right sought to emulatethe success of Trump’s rhetoric and practices within their national andtransnational context. The mirroring was facilitated by shared ideologicalthemes and ideas on immigration, security, foreign policy, and corruptionbetween Trumpism and the fourth wave of European far-right"
extract from a paper written on the subject
https://www.google.com/search?q=ris...ajBqMTWoAgiwAgE&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8#ip=1


2)

The failure of the EU get to grips with this problem is certainly adding to the rise of the far right To counteract this .Europe will have to modify its open borders and come up with a coherent policy on who to accept and how to return the rest to where they travelled from

you seem to blaming EU for the major global problem of displaced people


there will never be a coherent policy on who to accept because there will never be any cooperation between countries, any politician that talks about accepting anybody just gives the far right an opportunity to push their hateful narrative

Just as they have had to negotiate with Turkey.

EU has leverage over Turkey, its part of the Single Market and it wants to join the EU
EU has to pay Turkey a substantial amount of money to support the 3.8m refugees

This will involve difficult negotiations with many of the North African countries

it wont happen, those countries are not democratic and EU has no leverage over them


3) social media

Social media certainly has a role in dumbing down the debate.

its not about dumbing down the debate, social media gives right wing populism the opportunity to flourish because it spreads lies, misinformation and propaganda -the fundamental building block of populism

but the elephant in the room is economic decline. The French in particular are finding it hard to accept they are getting poorer and the effect this has had on their pensions.

the main effect on pensions if people living longer



Its sad that neo liberalism which has led to UKs and Europes decline in living standards as a result of wealth and assets transferring to a small number of the very wealthy, is being used as an opportunity by the right wing populists who want to make poor people poorer and the rich richer

People who vote for Right wing populists are voting against their best interests

 

[Noel]

Please, can we be spared from this bickering. I for one would like to read things that are relevant to the debate.

This ^^^^^

 

[Jake]

So Mr Farage has gone all shy and run away from Nick Robinson (nice to see some client journos regaining some independence and spine).

Does seem a bit of an odd political context at the moment for a party to choose to align themselves with it being better not to have fought WW2 against that Hitler chap.

 

[Topaz]

I have followed this thread with great interest - being a UK citizen who has spent most of their life in Europe. By chance I heard the BBC Start the Week broadcast of yesterday; very relevent to this discussion.
Here's the link:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m00201x7

 

[Chris152]

Meanwhile, after having a paper cup thrown at the open double-decker bus he was spouting from, Farage wrote on X:
"I will not be bullied or cowed by a violent left-wing mob who hate our country [...] These people want to stop my election campaign. That’s never going to happen," he added.
So one bloke chucking a couple of little bits of litter is a violent crowd. What a hero, reform supporters lapping it up.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cmjj1n030djo

 

[selectortone]

Just watched Sunak's Tory party manifesto launch. I thought the Labour party was supposed to be the party of unicorns and rainbows. "The only party with the BIG ideas to make our country a better place to live." Yeah, right. Where were these big ideas over the last 14 years?

 

[RobinBHM]

Just watched Sunak's Tory party manifesto launch. I thought the Labour party was supposed to be the party of unicorns and rainbows. "The only party with the BIG ideas to make our country a better place to live." Yeah, right. Where were these big ideas over the last 14 years?

in the next leadership debate, Keir Starmer should say:

"weve fully costed your plans and its going to cost each and every British taxpayer £7000"

and wait for Sunak to start grumbling its not true...but keep talking over him so he cant attack it

 

[Terry - Somerset]

We seem to attribute certain mostly negative characteristics to "far right".

So I speculated upon what was actually meant by "far right" or "far left". I came to the conclusion they are not far removed from one another - published by the British Journal of Political Science:

Similarities and differences

One short sentence to my mind summarises it excellently:

Intuitive observation of left-wing and right-wing regimes as well as radical political movements of the left and right reveals striking parallels in their styles of political engagement, their reliance upon force, their disdain for democratic ideals and practices and their violations of civil liberties.

Perhaps that is why I find extreme views generally abhorrent.

 

[Terry - Somerset]

in the next leadership debate, Keir Starmer should say:

"weve fully costed your plans and its going to cost each and every British taxpayer £7000"

and wait for Sunak to start grumbling its not true...but keep talking over him so he cant attack it

One theory is that a Tory victory is so unlikely Sunak could promise anything (pigs will fly under my administration) and never be troubled by having to deliver. For Starmer the challenge is rather different - if he does not deliver he will be held to account at the next election in 2029(?).

 

[sploo]

We seem to attribute certain mostly negative characteristics to "far right".

So I speculated upon what was actually meant by "far right" or "far left". I came to the conclusion they are not far removed from one another - published by the British Journal of Political Science:

Similarities and differences

One short sentence to my mind summarises it excellently:

Intuitive observation of left-wing and right-wing regimes as well as radical political movements of the left and right reveals striking parallels in their styles of political engagement, their reliance upon force, their disdain for democratic ideals and practices and their violations of civil liberties.

Perhaps that is why I find extreme views generally abhorrent.

I much prefer the 4 quadrant placement of political parties, rather than a simple left/right. Generally I've seen it done with the vertical axis being authoritarian (strict rule of law) vs libertarian (personal freedom), and the horizontal axis representing economic policy. Chart below from circa 2015; hence it's likely somewhat out of date - but it illustrates the point.

Generally the groups criticised as being "far right" are really just massively high on the authoritarian scale (i.e. fascism). It sparks the amusing observation that if Stalin and Hitler were to discuss rule of law they'd be closely aligned (both extreme authoritarian), but they'd disagree greatly on economic policy (Stalin being left, Hitler being more towards the right).

 

[sploo]

One theory is that a Tory victory is so unlikely Sunak could promise anything (pigs will fly under my administration) and never be troubled by having to deliver.

That's basically been Farage's schtick since forever.