Putin is a loser

[Lons]

Been there, done that. When I cleared my daughter's crashed Fiesta it took several bin bags and filled my boot to overflowing. She was dreading it as I'm the complete opposite with mine being in showroom condition so was prepared for a few sarcastic comments. Her new one isn't as bad though it's getting there.
Her biggest problem is scratched alloys but then my missus isn't much better. Drives me nuts.

 

[RobinBHM]

The word propaganda is used often, especially by Robin, and is used to describe the portrayal of the Russian side of the argument.

dishonest debating

you have stated I am wrong without stating where or why


I use the word propaganda to describe specific points which are indeed demonstrable examples of propaganda, if you think otherwise, please provide specifics and a counter argument

for example the claim that Ukrainian Nazis are the real cause of the troubles in Donbas
for example the claim that the Ukraine government being overthrown was an CIA coup
for example the claim that Putin was forced to invade Ukraine because of the West
for example the claim that it was the West that broke the Minsk agreement

 

[Fergie 307]

Been there, done that. When I cleared my daughter's crashed Fiesta it took several bin bags and filled my boot to overflowing. She was dreading it as I'm the complete opposite with mine being in showroom condition so was prepared for a few sarcastic comments. Her new one isn't as bad though it's getting there.
Her biggest problem is scratched alloys but then my missus isn't much better. Drives me nuts.

I make her clear it out every year for the MOT. Been going to the same place for twenty odd years, don't see why they should have to kit up in full CBN warfare suit before opening the door

 

[Noel]

I see the Ruble is further down the pan today and that mean more domestic pressure for Putin.

 

[Trainee neophyte]

I see the Ruble is further down the pan today and that mean more domestic pressure for Putin.

Economic war escalates: https://sanctionsnews.bakermckenzie...ssia-related-general-licenses-faqs-and-alert/

Your heating bills should be much higher this winter.

 

[RobinBHM]

Economic war escalates: https://sanctionsnews.bakermckenzie...ssia-related-general-licenses-faqs-and-alert/

Your heating bills should be much higher this winter.

Troll alert.

I see the Neophyte the Putin apologist has gone quiet on his Russian propaganda.

 

[RobinBHM]

Economic war escalates: https://sanctionsnews.bakermckenzie...ssia-related-general-licenses-faqs-and-alert/

Your heating bills should be much higher this winter.

EUs use of Russian gas has plummeted down to under 8%

And their purchase of Russian oil has plummeted also.

I’m sure India will buy from Russia…..at a much lower price.

Poor Putin, he must be feeling embarrassed having to plead with North Korea for weapons and soldiers.

 

[selectortone]

I see the Ruble is further down the pan today and that mean more domestic pressure for Putin.

I read yesterday that the Saudis are sitting on a huge surplus of oil and could cripple Putin any time by dropping the price to $50 or less. He's walking a fine line given his cosying up to Iran for logistical support in Ukraine.

 

[Terry - Somerset]

EUs use of Russian gas has plummeted down to under 8%

And their purchase of Russian oil has plummeted also.

I’m sure India will buy from Russia…..at a much lower price.

The market price of oil and gas depend on global supply and demand. As I recall the EU stresses in 2022 arose mainly as they did not have the capacity to offload supplies from tankers - I am assuming this constriction has largely been removed.

There is increasing opinion that sanctions are having a limited effect - if the only impact is to reduce (possibly slightly) Russian export income, and subsidise Indian consumption through purchases at slightly below world market prices - so what.

Poor Putin, he must be feeling embarrassed having to plead with North Korea for weapons and soldiers.

Or possibly Putin is keen to demonstrate a "global" anti-western imperialism alliance with other nations (even North Korea, Belarus, India, Iran etc). North Korea may be very pleased to have the opportunity to play on the world stage rater than live in isolation.

It is dangerous to judge the motives of others by your own standards, however decent.

 

[Terry - Somerset]

I read yesterday that the Saudis are sitting on a huge surplus of oil and could cripple Putin any time by dropping the price to $50 or less. He's walking a fine line given his cosying up to Iran for logistical support in Ukraine.

Sanctions and economic pressure may evidence worthy action, doing the right thing, making the world a better place, taking the moral high ground etc etc etc. BUT we should very seriously question whether sanctions work.

Nearly three years on and Putin is, if anything, intensifying his brutal actions in Ukraine. There have been sanctions in place - for example:

• Iran since 1979 - the ayatollahs are still in charge, financing and equipping Hamas and Hezbollah
• North Korea are subject to sanctions - they now have a nuclear capability
• The UK has sanctions in place for Syria - yet Assad carries on
• Go back a few decades there were sanctions in place for South Africa and Zimabwe (Rhodesia) - not outstandingly effective with the benefit of hindsight

Dominant regime leaders simply push the impacts of sanctions on civilian populations - the common denominator is that it they who suffer privations - food insecurity, lack of medical kit, failing power and infrastructure.

So back to the question - will a loss of oil and gas revenue impact Putins war efforts. In my opinion it will slightly impoverish the Saudis - although in the short term not materially so.

It will materially impact Russian civilians through a reduced capacity to import food and consumer goods. Putin will suppress any protests - sanctions are most unlikely to lead to regime change.

We may feel very virtuous on the moral high ground - I would prefer solutions that work!

 

[RobinBHM]

Or possibly Putin is keen to demonstrate a "global" anti-western imperialism alliance with other nations

No

Putin wouldnt go to North Korea for men and weapons if he had them domestically

The market price of oil and gas depend on global supply and demand. As I recall the EU stresses in 2022 arose mainly as they did not have the capacity to offload supplies from tankers - I am assuming this constriction has largely been removed.

There is increasing opinion that sanctions are having a limited effect - if the only impact is to reduce (possibly slightly) Russian export income, and subsidise Indian consumption through purchases at slightly below world market prices - so what.

you are missing the point

Putin spent years making EU reliant on cheap Russian and Gas and oil, which he used to build up a massive war chest

but EU is no longer very reliant on Russian gas and oil so Putin doesnt have the leverage he once had

Also Putins Oligarchs built up huge laundered funds across Europe, esp UK, Im sure they are still using that, but they cant easily create more

Putin has shut the door on Russian being a global economy

here is increasing opinion that sanctions are having a limited effect

Russia is getting stuff through the black market via places like Kazakhstan, however sanctions are hurting Russia domestically espically in regards to spare parts for machines and vehicles

Russian is basically an oil economy, which it currently spends on its war machine

It is dangerous to judge the motives of others by your own standards, however decent

not sure how thats relevant to the post I made

 

[Jake]

Not intervening this time, no no no. Then panicking to scrape up some intervention money after all yesterday to try to stop the dive.

Where do interest rates go from here, a 21.5% base isn't a great place from which to hike.

Market sharks are circling.

 

[selectortone]

Sanctions and economic pressure may evidence worthy action, doing the right thing, making the world a better place,

Who said anything about ,"worthy action"?

I'm saying that Putin is walking a tightrope cosying up to Iran given, as I'm sure you know, that (Shia) Iran and (Sunni) Saudi Arabia are sworn enemies, and the Saudis could pull the plug on oil prices any time they like.

 

[Noel]

Not intervening this time, no no no. Then panicking to scrape up some intervention money after all yesterday to try to stop the dive.

Where do interest rates go from here, a 21.5% base isn't a great place from which to hike.

Market sharks are circling.View attachment 193350

After further sanctions against Gazprombank and many other banks head of Russia Central Bank head Elvira Nabiulina warns that there are no further reserves to prop up the Ruble and the economic forecast is bleak.
Meanwhile queues are forming at local banks and “butter theft” is now a major issue due to dramatic price increases.

 

[Blackswanwood]

After further sanctions against Gazprombank head of Russia Central Bank Elvira Nabiulina warns that there are no further reserves to prop up the Ruble and the economic forecast is bleak.
Meanwhile queues are forming at local banks and “butter theft” is now a major issue due to dramatic price increases.

I hope it doesn’t turn out to be a case of too little too late with the change of POTUS.

 

[Jake]

After further sanctions against Gazprombank and many other banks head of Russia Central Bank head Elvira Nabiulina warns that there are no further reserves to prop up the Ruble and the economic forecast is bleak.
Meanwhile queues are forming at local banks and “butter theft” is now a major issue due to dramatic price increases.

Yep, the ratchet has taken a long time to bite but the cracks have been showing for a while. The wiggle in the chart yesterday shows they spent reserves they didn't think were safe to dip into to try to catch the drop (perhaps now hoping to hold or at least pause at 90 cents by the looks of it). But even if they hold it there, that's still a near 15% drop in the external value of the Russian economy in less than a month. No way of knowing what their next move will be, but this is an economy undoubtedly under very severe strain.

An interesting side affect might be that Trump also sees blood in the water as a way to turn the tables on the Putin to whom he has been so subservient and obsequious (doesn't seem his favourite mode of being although he behaved the same way with his darling Rocketman*). Possible though, who knows.

(*not you Tony although I take your new avatar as a sign you crave the same fawning attention from your intellectual idol).