Putin is a loser

[Terry - Somerset]

Meanwhile all the idiotic 'realists' who assume Russia is undefeatable ignore the fact that its economy is now collapsing. All the 'have to settle' talk is because Putin is losing and knows he is, and knows that Trump will throw him a lifeline if Western opinion shifts enough to make that politically feasible.

Russia has a population 4 times that of Ukraine and a land area 30 times that of Ukraine.

That Ukraine could control Russia (assuming military success) is laughable. It is just possible the Russian public welcome the invading Ukrainians in bringing peace, prosperity, fairness, order, etc etc to a country currently beset by a corrupt and incompetent ruling elite - a bit of a risk there!!

To achieve military supremacy, defeat the Russians, and force their surrender would require huge western support - probably boots on the ground due to Russian numerical superiority. There is close to zero chance of this happening due to the very real prospect of serious escalation.

Final possibility - military defeat, complete withdrawal from Ukraine, threats to the rest of Europe neutered. No occupation. Russia risks becoming an ungovernable rogue state with huge resources and thus power (oil, gas, minerals, etc) at its disposal. Doesn't make me feel comfortable.

Perhaps you see something I have missed??

 

[Jake]

That Ukraine could control Russia (assuming military success) is laughable.

My dumb strawman alert has gone off.

The idea that UKR can kick Russia out is not laughable, their invasion is failing with huge losses and their economy is collapsing fast now.

 

[Jake]

Final possibility - military defeat, complete withdrawal from Ukraine, threats to the rest of Europe neutered. No occupation. Russia risks becoming an ungovernable rogue state with huge resources and thus power (oil, gas, minerals, etc) at its disposal. Doesn't make me feel comfortable.

Perhaps you see something I have missed??

Oh poor Terry, does not allowing the fascist to have a little invasion success make you feel uncomfortable? Why don't the Ukrainians (who will end up living under a dictatorial regime with genocidal ambitions) think about your feelings?

 

[Terry - Somerset]

The follow on question then re-asserts itself.

From my previous:


If the west supports the ceding of territory to Putin, then what next?? Do you think that will be the end of it. Or do you think that Putin will reset, then launch another invasion?


Every time I post on this thread I always have front and centre of my mind - the social media 'phone video images of that civilian running away from a tank that is trying to run him over on invasion day. <shivers>
Use that image as your barometer of what you believe would happen next.
Also note that eastern Moldova has a "Russian Enclave".

Bismarck - politics is the art of the possible.

You may dislike a negotiated settlement which rewards an aggressor - but what does your alternative involve.

 

[Terry - Somerset]

Oh poor Terry, does not allowing the fascist to have a little invasion success make you feel uncomfortable? Why don't the Ukrainians (who will end up living under a dictatorial regime with genocidal ambitions) think about your feelings?

No need for rudeness - one woud hope for a constructive informed exchange of views.

 

[Jake]

No need for rudeness - one woud hope for a constructive informed exchange of views.

Well really, your point was that a people facing a horrific future if they lose should be made to lose because you would feel fearful about the future if they weren't abandoned. And you want a serious debate about whether your fearful feelings are important?

A bit of gentle mocking was well earned.

 

[Jacob]

The thing about Ukraine and also Palestine; it's not easy to imagine a peaceful ending occurring until the main proponents are dead and gone, i.e. Putin, Netanyahu and their servile entourages.
You'd think they could do something with all this amazing drone technology. No doubt the other side are tagging Volodymyr as best they can.

 

[Fergie 307]

Meanwhile still waiting for some explanation why evil is an unfair judgement of Mr Putin.

 

[Fergie 307]

Putin is a boomer. Unlike those born in the UK, he was brought into a world in which 20m+ Russians died in WW2, grew up and started his career during the heights of the cold war. Life (I suspect) was tough in the 1950-60s for a kid born to a factory worker and naval conscript.

The collapse of the Soviet Union would have tested his world view as he rose through the ranks.

The invasion of Crimea went unopposed by the West - possibly as it was culturally very closely aligned with Russia. Eastern Ukraine has similar close ties - culture, language etc. Concerned at the expansion of NATO and EU, Ukraine was an obvious target.

Before invasion I suspect he thought it would be a simple few week campaign (as did I) to the borders with Poland, Romania etc. He had massive weapons and manpower superiority, and the Crimea experience "proved" the reluctance of the west to get involved.

The West has provided just enough support to stall the conflict in static positions for the last two years - an bit of an advance here, a little retreat there. The question is - what now?

• withdraw further funding and support - Ukraine loses rapidly. Many dead. Putin bolstered. Potential further threat in Europe. Not a good solution for Ukraine or the West.
• continue providing "just enough" support - Russia will not want to acknowledge impotence or apparent defeat. War could drag on for years. Lots more dead. Would keep Russia occupied reducing further European conflict risk.
• increase support - it is a war Ukraine cannot "win" with troops in Red Square. Russia likely to escalate rather than surrender. Remember Afghanistan - Russia were there for 11 years before withdrawing.

Assuming bringing the conflict to an end would be a good thing (there could be arguments for extending it indefinitely) the solution must be negotiated - there is no military option.

This requires (a) that Putin has some reward he can sell to evidence "success" (redrawn borders), and (b) that Zelensky has no choice but to accept the outcome (do it or support is withdrawn).

The morality of such a settlement - possibly rewarding the aggressor - is questionable. But it may be the price necessary to end a destructive conflict.

Who has ever suggested a win by Ukraine involving troops in red square, what an odd thing to say.
I dare say Ukraine would be quite happy to just see the Russians leave.