Has anyone read the book Freakonomics by two guys I can't remember?
Good little read if you see it. It's not so much a book as a collection of essays. I think some of them were for various US mags/papers.
There is a very credible explanation of the changing patterns of crime in the US from the '70's to the '90's. Much was made in New York of the Mayor's drive of Zero Tolerance towards petty crime, and finding employment for the poor. Guiliani, I think he was. He presided over a very impressive fall in the crime rate, and took a lot of credit.
The trouble was, a lot of other places, which did not follow the same Zero Tolerance approach, also showed parallel patterns of reduced crime, and in some states the pattern was the same but offset by a few years.
Curiouser and curiouser, said Alice.
The explanation offered for this is the case of Wade versus Rowe.
Abortion was illegal in many states, but that, of course, didn't mean it didn't happen. But if a nice white middle-class 14-year-old girl has parents with money, she can be dealt with quietly. But it's much more difficult if she is not white, not middle class or her parents do not have money. Children born into such socioeconomic situations are, in turn, much more likely to grow up and commit crimes themselves.
These are not my words, just in case someone is getting upset, I'm trying to precis the argument.
Once abotion became legal, many of these unplanned children simply were not born, therefore 15 or 20 years later they were not around to cause the sort of crime that was upsetting the Mayor of NY. Hence the decline in figures. In some states abortion was legalised before other states, hence the offset in pattern.
It was written as a very plausible argument, I enjoyed the read.
Certainly I'd be happier if some of the teenagers round here didn't exist. But I'd really prefer if they did exist and behaved in a civilised manner.
I must see if I can find the book, maybe it's time for a revisit.
