Electric vehicles

[Spectric]

Again are they really serious about change and wanting to improve the enviroment or just playing with words. We are talking removing/reducing the number of cars with ICE's on our roads but if they had been really on the ball then they would have addressed the issue with the HGV by now, why are they still running the length and breadth of the country? Rail hubs at all major cities and towns and lorries only work local to the rail hubs, think about the reduction in pollution if all those lumbering trucks were taken off our major roads. It has not happened because the government earns a lot of duty on the Diesel they use, but will if they go electric due to reduced capacity and no duty.

 

[TominDales]

This is the tip of a very big iceburg, it all boils down to the Law of Conservation of Energy. You need energy to move any mass and you will always need energy to be able to convert it into the type of energy you want because energy cannot be created or destroyed. So you could burn the unwanted petrol to produce electricity to then charge your electric vehicle! This is the same as growing huge amounts of cereal to feed the cattle which you later eat, better option is to just eat the cereal. Think of the total job losses created when ICE's and gearboxes no longer need to be designed, tested, certified and manufactured, this will impact the manufacturer of the specialised machinery to produce the components, the foundries that cast a lot of parts, all the production facilties and the list goes on. Milkfloats are much easier to produce, make a vehicle and then all you need are batterys and motors , and I think of all the time and effort that I have put into the ICE, not to mention the hours of training and research.

You raise some of the very major an serous issues behind the drive to remove ICE engines.

Energy and pollution.
The drive to remove ICE is two fold, removal of NOX from cities and CO2 byproduct from burning petrol and diesel. Nox reduction is the (wrong headed in my view) move against diesel, in my view add blue and diesel is a good stop gap until EVs are mature. As petrol makes more CO2 per mile travelled. The need to reduce in CO2 is the overwhelming problem.
For CO2 to be reduced then we have to move away from fossil fuels like petrol and not burn the unwanted petrol but use wind, solar and nuclear energy to charge the cars. That is the UK governments strategy. Hence the Nuclear deal announced last summer and the subsidies to get off shore wind going and EVs going, backed up by legislation that makes ICE harder to sell each year and carbon taxes on fusel fuels.
So what happens to the petrol
- firstly the refineries get reconfigured to not make it - they have had to do similar things over the past 100 years as they switched from coal to oil and then to gas. They were re-configure to make more diesel in the 1990's. Incidentally natural gas and shale gas (contains ethane as well as methane) are a much greener feedstock than coal and oil. But intimately by 2050 we will have to be largely free of burning oil and gas without some sort of carbon capture. That is a huge global challenge. But a driver for innovation and investment in this country, so potentially a flow of well paid work for the next generation of engineers etc.

You second point about the supply chain is happening fast. Town's like Rochdale that make sophisticated gear and engine components have been devastated by the change, same for Bridgend that makes most the the EUs diesel engines etc. Hence the attempts to get new industries to those place. Honda exiting Swindon is part of this change (Brexit accelerated unfortunately), but as you point out EVs are simpler to make and maintain than ICE vehicles

 

[Jameshow]

Again are they really serious about change and wanting to improve the enviroment or just playing with words. We are talking removing/reducing the number of cars with ICE's on our roads but if they had been really on the ball then they would have addressed the issue with the HGV by now, why are they still running the length and breadth of the country? Rail hubs at all major cities and towns and lorries only work local to the rail hubs, think about the reduction in pollution if all those lumbering trucks were taken off our major roads. It has not happened because the government earns a lot of duty on the Diesel they use, but will if they go electric due to reduced capacity and no duty.

Do EV work for 44t lorries???

I haven't seen any EV vehicles on sale above 3.5t any one seen any???

Cheers James

 

[MARK.B.]

Do EV work for 44t lorries???

I haven't seen any EV vehicles on sale above 3.5t any one seen any???

Cheers James

Tesla- Volvo and others are making 18 wheelers, the Tesla starts around $150,000 to around $180,00. No idea how much they can carry though.

 

[TominDales]

Again are they really serious about change and wanting to improve the environment or just playing with words. We are talking removing/reducing the number of cars with ICE's on our roads but if they had been really on the ball then they would have addressed the issue with the HGV by now, why are they still running the length and breadth of the country? Rail hubs at all major cities and towns and lorries only work local to the rail hubs, think about the reduction in pollution if all those lumbering trucks were taken off our major roads. It has not happened because the government earns a lot of duty on the Diesel they use, but will if they go electric due to reduced capacity and no duty.

Another thoughtful question. To be a bit cynical about this, the UK government has been slow to act on climate change, but has been moved by public opinion over the past decade or so, Greta and David Attenborough effect, and along with the EU, most nations including China and now the USA again.
The focus on passenger cars is both pragmatic and logical. Firstly they are the biggest source of CO2 emissions -see the chart cut from one of many reports for the Climate committee, in this case from IEA data Cars, planes, trains: where do CO2 emissions from transport come from?. . Cars are also the easiest to convert as the power required is the lowest and as a premium product the industry sustains high levels of R&D.

Medium and Heavy trucks are the next one and there is development and legislation for these coming in later, mainly on the back of car developments. For trucks, batteries are looking like the winning technology, although fuel cells and hydrogen combustion are being investigated as well. In Germany there is a trial piece of motorway fitted with a pantograph to enable electric trucks to re-charge while travelling on the autobahn, battery power being required for the start and finish of a journey.
Shipping carries by far the most transport in term of tonnage and mileage but is ultra efficient. But even marine is planned to phase out fossil fuels, . Aviation, while not the biggest emitter is of high concerns as its the one growing the fastest and the most challenging. Sustainable fuels such as bio fuels are the likely short term solution but electric planes are being developed for short haul -RR have a programme with Airbus, also drones and small craft.

As you say, electric rail is the lowest CO2 emitter, but the UK has very congested rail and most lines are shared passenger trains which is problematic. With autonomous vehicle technology, you can envisage a day when trains of trucks will run nose to tail on motorways and peal off to their destination, probably replacing rail. This will also happen to passenger cars, they will effectively be locked together in formation - seems quite a scary prospect.
This graph looks simple enough, but we should not underestimate the shear scale of the change. 95% of the worlds energy is from fossil fuels today, in 50 years time it will all be low carbon alternatives.

 

[TominDales]

Do EV work for 44t lorries???

I haven't seen any EV vehicles on sale above 3.5t any one seen any???

Cheers James

Most manufactures offer them Scania launches electric truck range or have pilots, DAF, Mercedes, Scania, generally offering Battery EV, but heging best on the tech at the moment with hydrogen (combustion and fuel cell), or biodiesel. London has adopted a fleet of 26te EV bin waggons and Glasgow has a fleet of 32te bin waggons. Bin waggons and vehicles that go back to base - such as buses- to be re-charged are the first to be adopted. Scania published a report last month saying that they are scaling back R&D on fuel cells and focusing more on full battery EV for its 44te trucks.

 

[Spectric]

are shared passenger trains which is problematic.

You could run the freight overnight when passenger services are really low.

 

[Jameshow]

You could run the freight overnight when passenger services are really low.

Do they not do that already.

Near me a quarry train trundles by quite late in the evening most nights.

I think there are several road / rail transfer stations too.

Cheers James

 

[Spectric]

Yes they do run some but they do not fully ultilise the tracks, I used to get a heavy ballast train going past at 2am every wednesay and that shook the houses. You think one freight train can haul over 100 tons in a single freight car so with just ten cars you have 1000 tons being hauled which is over 40 lorries off the road. So you could remove all trucks from M1, M5 & M6 by using trains and think of the reduction in conjestion on say the M5.

 

[chrisdt]

All this talk about electric vehicles and advancement in technology when the roads in the UK are a bloody disgrace. Potholes as big as footballs. "Smart Motorways" that were designed by utter morons full of broken down electric cars (which you cant tow) and scrap yards full of dud batteries.

 

[Ozi]

All this talk about electric vehicles and advancement in technology when the roads in the UK are a bloody disgrace. Potholes as big as footballs. "Smart Motorways" that were designed by utter morons full of broken down electric cars (which you cant tow) and scrap yards full of dud batteries.

You can tow electric cars just as you can tow automatics you just have to follow the correct procedure, also electric vehicles are looking to be more reliable than IC even at this early stage of their development. "Dud batteries are a very valuable resource you won't see them littering scrap yards for long.

Smart motorways you may have a point, there will certainly be more accidents, they claim to reduce polution, I would like to see facts before I believe that.

I'm not sure what happens with potholes in your area, here Rugby council have a phone line where you can report things like potholes or fallen trees etc. it makes a difference getting roads reopened sooner and holes fixed before they grow too large, I don't often find good things to say about our local council but I have to give them credit for this it saves money and improves the service. Worth having a look on your councils web site.

 

[Trainee neophyte]

Transferring to EV is expensive, both in terms of new infrastructure, but also in terms of energy usage. We will use more energy to travel the same distances, or we will travel less. Either way we will be the poorer for it. Is Climate Change fear just a way of convincing everyone to accept being poorer, because the oil is running out?

 

[Terry - Somerset]

The question of how HGVs and the bulk movement of goods will evolve may be far more complex than simply the road or rail, battery or hydrogen, or it just can't be done debate.

Containerisation of international trade in the 1960/70s radically changed the way goods are shipped. Part of the reason for large HGVs is economic - employing one driver to move 20 tons is more effective than 20 drivers to move one ton. There are also efficiency benefits in larger HGV vs several smaller.

The economic balance may change:

• self driving vehicles could allow freight modules with a capacity of 1-3 tons to be economically viable
• larger volume long distance freight could use the rail system for the major part of the journey with automated transfer on to smaller self driving modules for local delivery.

 

[Rorschach]

People aren't stupid, there is a reason that a lot of freight uses road transport rather than rail.

 

[Droogs]

Do EV work for 44t lorries???

I haven't seen any EV vehicles on sale above 3.5t any one seen any???

Cheers James

Scania are launching a range of trucks which they hope will go up to 44T over the next few years see below links:

https://www.scania.com/uk/en/home/e...s/2020/09/scania-electric-truck-launches.html


https://www.scania.com/group/en/hom...unches-fully-electric-truck-with-250-km-range

https://www.scania.com/group/en/home/about-scania/innovation/technology/electrification.html

 

[TominDales]

Yes they do run some but they do not fully ultilise the tracks, I used to get a heavy ballast train going past at 2am every Wednesay and that shook the houses. You think one freight train can haul over 100 tons in a single freight car so with just ten cars you have 1000 tons being hauled which is over 40 lorries off the road. So you could remove all trucks from M1, M5 & M6 by using trains and think of the reduction in conjestion on say the M5.

I'm not that well acquainted in this topic, my understanding from talking to a few in this area - we have projects with Hitachi, Siemens rail and Bombadier is UK rail freight is problematic due to the crowded nature of the UK and the need to share infrastructure, much of which was build 180 years ago. Whereas long distance rail across Europe and through to Russia etc is more viable than in the UK there are a mixture of issues.
- dedicated freight lines work quite well - cf the old coal transport lines etc but mixed freight and passage traffic has problems - there are not that many synergies.
- our high speed mainlines are highly congested in the day time, the East coat line has a fast train every 6 minutes on average, this capacity constrained means that maintenance of the line (see next point) causes losses to passenger traffic, delays etc. Much of the maintence is done out of hours to ease congestion.
- freight traffic causes faster erosion of track which necessitates more frequent repairs otherwise safety of fast passenger trains would be compromised, which disrupts the lines for fast passenger traffic - pure freight lines can be designed differently and can take more wear due to the slower speeds, but combined lines don't have such synergies
- Building new lines in the UK is difficult due to congested nature of the island. Just bringing back old lines that have had houses and gardens build near or on the tack bed is very hard to drive through the planning process.
- EWS had a poor reputation for flexible thinking and innovation in the industry so not used as much as it could be - (this is a rather dated comment cf 2005 so things may have improved. Sadly I saw the economics when ICI switched tankering bulk chemicals such as methanol across the country from dedicated rail to road - the cost plummeted, this was largely due to outdated processes in the rail fright sector not competing with road freight. - this is fixable.

So I suspect some freight can be switched to rail through better operational practices, but the structural problems will favour road haulage for the bulk of transport.

 

[Spectric]

People aren't stupid, there is a reason that a lot of freight uses road transport rather than rail.

Are you sure, stupidity can be a good guise for both incompetance and corruption. Rail freight has many benefits but reason that a lot of freight uses road transport rather than rail is because the rail infrastructure is no longer there, if we built new rail yards then it would be a simple mater to move containers onto & off rail, but like everything else there would be winners and losers. The haulage industry is huge, Ok the trucks are not made in the Uk but there is a large service industry and overall it employs a lot of people, then another loser would be the government through loss of fuel duty and taxation so whilst they use diesel and generate jobs and income there is no reason to change even if it means helping congestion and the enviroment. This is a good example of why we need fresh younger blood in our leadership, once you get to a certain age you know that you are past making any significant difference and so just go with the flow waiting to retire with the attitude that the next generation will have to sort out the mess left behind and so the cycle continues.

 

[Woody2Shoes]

All this talk about electric vehicles and advancement in technology when the roads in the UK are a bloody disgrace. Potholes as big as footballs. "Smart Motorways" that were designed by utter morons full of broken down electric cars (which you cant tow) and scrap yards full of dud batteries.

We obviously need to bring back coal-powered steam engines as soon as possible......

 

[TominDales]

Transferring to EV is expensive, both in terms of new infrastructure, but also in terms of energy usage. We will use more energy to travel the same distances, or we will travel less. Either way we will be the poorer for it. Is Climate Change fear just a way of convincing everyone to accept being poorer, because the oil is running out?

You are right to highlight the investment and effort needed for this huge change, but in energy terms EVs are far MORE EFFICEINT at turning energy into distance traveled, I have no doubt that the running costs will be lower for the poor in the medium term.

The investment in new infrastructure is huge and the diversion of resources into this will cause short term issues for people as priioreties change. Transport is only the start, switching domestic heating away from natural gas will require a similar level of capital investment.

However the oil is not running out and wont run out. Most economists expect peak oils to be reached soon due to the switch to renewables and the Saudis will see oil left in the ground, just like coal is increasingly being left underground in the EU and US.
- Petrol engines are about 30% efficient at turning fuel into motion. The very best large diesels in trucks and large cars can get upto 45% efficientcy.
- EVs are 80%to 85% energy efficient at converting energy to motion.
- fuel cell EVs are about 30% efficient ie similar to ICE
EVs are by far the most efficient vehicle, that is why trains are electrics and diesel electric etc.
BUT WHEN IT COMES TO ZERO CARBON FUELS EVs even more efficient because batteries are very energy efficient at converting energy see enclosed chart

- ICE cars based on sustainable fuels ie using fuel oil derived from carbon capture and Fischer Trops synthesis (FT in the enclosed table) are only 13% efficient.
- The cost of electricity from wind is predicted to fall bellow the cost of electricity from fossil fuels by 2024, its already close.
- as large scale manufacture, distribution and use of EVs gets going the cost of ownership will plummet

So for these reasons EVs will be more affordable than ICE in 10 years time, so I think the poor of the world will see benefits, the challenge is getting over the first few years of change, which may be or may not be painful.

Note in the chart, Power to liquid means making diesel, petrol and aviation fuel using low carbon tech ie carbon capture and Fischer Tropps chemistries to make the fuel. However, whether it be the making of the energy or the consumption of it in the vehicle EVS are way more efficient at both.

 

[Woody2Shoes]

Currently electric vehicles are purely for replacement of private petrol driven cars. Tractors, hgv, ships, etc will need diesel or bunker fuel for years to come, possibly for ever. A barrel of oil contains many things, but about 30% is petrol (or gasoline if it in the americas). If electric vehicles remove demand for petrol, it can't be used for anything else, so what do we do with it? It has already been pulled out of the ground with every barrel, so something will need to be done with it. Additionally, petrol is actually a waste product that people found a use for - it's the heavy oils which are the important stuff as far as keeping civilization spinning is concerned: without a market to subsidise the heavy oils, everything that uses them will become more expensive. Food, transport - everything really. If one third of a barrel of oil has no market, would the price go up or down? If it goes down, will less be extracted?

Interesting knock - on effects of going green.

It is possible to make "petrol" into all sorts of other things. By the same token, a lot of things can be turned into petrol - I know a guy who once worked in South Africa during apartheid, helping them make petrol (which they couldn't easily import!) out of coal which they had loads of. Of course these transformations require quite a lot of extra energy, so probably best avoided. Medium term, less oil will be extracted, not least because it's increasingly scarce/expensive to extract - we found and burned most of the 'low hanging fruit' some time ago, possibly excluding places like Saudi/Iran/Iraq/Libya etc.