The US ***

[D_W]

as I'd guessed - the fall was reported yesterday by only one larger news outlet - the NY post (which is sort of a minority alternative to the times and generally pretty conservative for NY).

Newsweek or some other soft-news outlet decided only late this morning to post a story about it. Google doesn't bring up any mainstream news sources with it - it's fabulously missing from a page filled with much more outdated news from the typical suspects here. I didn't look at forksnews - i'm sure they have something about it, but that's just their sales gimmick and would be expected.

 

[TominDales]

You sure about that?
Doesnt sound right to me when they have been putting calls out to anyone that hasn't had it.
Plus all she needs to do it what you say is correct is to go online and book one.
So why hasnt she done that?

I doubt she is eligible if she is young. The NHS England roll-out of vaccine is very strictly age/vulnerability based - its purely driven on what saves lives rather than any other values/factors. Its also an easy policy to deploy across a very complicated supply system, and hard for the unscrupulous and sharp elbowed to get round (for instance by creating paramedic companies for themselves and friends and family..)
The committee considered early a vaccination of public facing groups such as paramedics, police, teachers, bus drivers, shop assistants, bar workers, but it was complicated with a lot of groups to consider and rather sketchy data on who was vulnerable, on the whole data shows that age is the overriding risk factor and occupation comes further down the line, taxi drivers are as much or more at risk than some of the emergency services.
With a few exceptions, such as those working in ICU (not just the medics but cleaners and ancillary staff), and those caring for the old and vulnerable, who pose a risk of infecting their charges So the role out has been strictly age related. If you or your daughter happens to be a young paramedic dealing with the general public she will be asked to wait. If you get transferred into geriatrics or other, strictly limited high risker risk occupations that would change.

The risk with this approach is things could change. A new variant that effects the young could emerge in which case the policy would need to change.

 

[Amateur]

I doubt she is eligible if she is young. The NHS England roll-out of vaccine is very strictly age/vulnerability based - its purely driven on what saves lives rather than any other values/factors. Its also an easy policy to deploy across a very complicated supply system, and hard for the unscrupulous and sharp elbowed to get round (for instance by creating paramedic companies for themselves and friends and family..)
The committee considered early a vaccination of public facing groups such as paramedics, police, teachers, bus drivers, shop assistants, bar workers, but it was complicated with a lot of groups to consider and rather sketchy data on who was vulnerable, on the whole data shows that age is the overriding risk factor and occupation comes further down the line, taxi drivers are as much or more at risk than some of the emergency services.
With a few exceptions, such as those working in ICU (not just the medics but cleaners and ancillary staff), and those caring for the old and vulnerable, who pose a risk of infecting their charges So the role out has been strictly age related. If you or your daughter happens to be a young paramedic dealing with the general public she will be asked to wait. If you get transferred into geriatrics or other, strictly limited high risker risk occupations that would change.

The risk with this approach is things could change. A new variant that effects the young could emerge in which case the policy would need to change.

Im sorry to disagree.
If she goes on line to book an appointment they ask if she is in a vulnerable position, regardless of age.
Anyone who cares for a relative can Get the vaccination.
all you have to be is in an at risk situation for themselves or anyone they are looking after.

 

[gog64]

....just to add,
my daughter is a Paramedic trainee....in a v/large health service just outside London...
front line staff I would have thought........she's in the thick of it......
I asked when she would get her ***......she just laughed.......not enough to go around......
I'm still self isolating, she can have mine.......

please take care out there.....

that’a strange, I was in hospital very early Feb and discussed this with staff. I was told that every single member of medical staff plus all the serco employees who do the cleaning, food, etc.etc had all been offered the ***. I don’t know about paramedics though? Maybe it varies a lot according to area? I had my first *** mid Feb, a few weeks after hospital staff as I’m in the “high risk” cohort. My son (care home worker) was also vaccinated early Feb. Seems like a sensible & orderly roll out to me.

 

[Amateur]

SPECTRIC

It's not as simple as just throwing early response teams into action, how were they going to treat an unknown?
The virus has to be identified first which takes time.
What was interesting is that every country in the world virtually followed the same procedures, which indicates that a formulated plan had already been worked out in the eventuality of a global pandemic.
The UK were fortunate that Oxford were already looking at similar strains of the virus and would already be doubled up with other countries labs overseas running similar programs.

It's interesting to look what happens with the yearly flu ***.
Monitoring takes place in participating countries during the year. Groups meet to give their best stab at what new strain will be considered to be the most virulent based upon yearly trends. Then the flu virus is modified in time for the yearly rollout. That happens every year.
In the case of covid there was nothing.
It was a new virus.
No one knew how to treat it, or exactly what it was.
In fact information was so scarce folk turning up unable to breath at hospitals were put on ventilators which as it turned out was the worst thing they could have done. That's how sparse information was.


The Chinese could have imparted information earlier when the first outbreaks occurred which would have allowed labs to start work months earlier. But didn't.
In fact over six months if my memory serves me well.
This is one of the main issues never discussed, and pointing fingers at western leaders for slow starts is maybe the wrong thing to do.

How can any country ban flights, and ban foreign travel when they don't have enough information to tell the airlines to stop flying?
It's only as the potency of the virus started causing the upward death rates, and medical officers began getting information what covid19 actually was and did that decisions could realistically be made.
But it's a hard call to potentially destroy your economy by making the wrong decisions too early.
It wasn't until the rest of the world was in the same boat that countries took action at which point it became obvious that economies would suffer indefinitely.

 

[TominDales]

that’a strange, I was in hospital very early Feb and discussed this with staff. I was told that every single member of medical staff plus all the serco employees who do the cleaning, food, etc.etc had all been offered the ***. I don’t know about paramedics though? Maybe it varies a lot according to area? I had my first *** mid Feb, a few weeks after hospital staff as I’m in the “high risk” cohort. My son (care home worker) was also vaccinated early Feb. Seems like a sensible & orderly roll out to me.

It depends on the hospital set up. If the hospital unit treats Covid patients then its been rolled out to all staff as the data has shown the non medical staff are just as vulnerable as medical staff and infected staff can then infect vulnerable patients. If the unit or paramedics are dealing with 'non covid' people or normal risk people, they have been put further down the list in most (but not all areas), same with the police etc. As of late February, those Clinically extremely vulnerable and carers of clinically extremely vulnerable people became eligible. And in the past week the list moved down the age list to anyone over 50. see :Who can get the coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccine however if you are bellow 50, and not caring for the clinically extremely vulnerable you still have to wait even if your profession is public facing such as police, fire, paramedic.

 

[Lons]

Besides this is a non political forum so why he was commented on in the fir.st place is beyond me?

You shouldn't be surprised if you look at who made the comment and his history of left wing political posts.

 

[TominDales]

SPECTRIC
It's interesting to look what happens with the yearly flu ***.
Monitoring takes place in participating countries during the year. Groups meet to give their best stab at what new strain will be considered to be the most virulent based upon yearly trends. Then the flu virus is modified in time for the yearly rollout. That happens every year.
In the case of covid there was nothing.

My company is involved with the development and scale-up of new vaccines, and on a positive note, despite the secrecy surrounding future vaccine development, the treasury did release quite a bit of detail ahead of the budget. As can be gleaned from this announcement, there are well developed plans for a library of new variant vaccines to be ready to role out a booster later this year if its needed. : Budget 2021: Extra £1.6bn for UK's Covid vaccination rollout whatever the mistakes first time round, little is being left to chance this time.

 

[gog64]

It depends on the hospital set up. If the hospital unit treats Covid patients then its been rolled out to all staff as the data has shown the non medical staff are just as vulnerable as medical staff and infected staff can then infect vulnerable patients. If the unit or paramedics are dealing with 'non covid' people or normal risk people, they have been put further down the list in most (but not all areas), same with the police etc. As of late February, those Clinically extremely vulnerable and carers of clinically extremely vulnerable people became eligible. And in the past week the list moved down the age list to anyone over 50. see :Who can get the coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccine however if you are bellow 50, and not caring for the clinically extremely vulnerable you still have to wait even if your profession is public facing such as police, fire, paramedic.

That’s a good explanation, thank you. You should work for the government! I find their explanations (or lack of) poor. I stick to my guns on timeline though, I checked my vaccine card and I was vaccinated a month ago. I’m definitely “high risk” not “extremely vulnerable”. My son’s workplace is a residential facility for adults with complex needs. It’s a large national charity and they started vaccinations the first week in February. My son was actually the last member of staff to get vaccinated and that was 2nd week in February.

 

[TominDales]

That’s a good explanation, thank you. You should work for the government! I find their explanations (or lack of) poor. I stick to my guns on timeline though, I checked my vaccine card and I was vaccinated a month ago. I’m definitely “high risk” not “extremely vulnerable”. My son’s workplace is a residential facility for adults with complex needs. It’s a large national charity and they started vaccinations the first week in February. My son was actually the last member of staff to get vaccinated and that was 2nd week in February.

Actually the NHSs definition is also confusing its :
People at high risk from coronavirus (clinically extremely vulnerable),
So you probably qualify, the NHS has a list of clinically extremely vulnerable people, but I don't think it has a proper definition of those 'at high risk from coronavirus.
Also I've gone back and checked some facts, I was ina-ccurate answer to your question on paramedics. The 8th January announcement of NHS organisations roll our of the vaccine to staff DOES include Paramedics that are employed by the NHS - my mistake, I think the complication is its paramedics employed by the NHS organisations, but Paramedic fire fighters and others don't quality. As you said, its not simple. However the good news is, that despite the impeding slow down next month, the UK will have vaccinated all the high risk groups and over 50s by about Easter. Once they get to the 40+ group the risks should be on a manageable level.

 

[TominDales]

Im sorry to disagree.
If she goes on line to book an appointment they ask if she is in a vulnerable position, regardless of age.
Anyone who cares for a relative can Get the vaccination.
all you have to be is in an at risk situation for themselves or anyone they are looking after.

Hi I've gone and checked, and you are right, its as always rather confusing. The 8th January announcement does include Paramedics if they are employed by the NHS NHS England » NHS organisations instructed to rapidly vaccinate staff So for clogs either your daughter is not employed by the NHS or that organisation has been very slow rolling out the vaccine to its staff. Worth noting, NHS staff are vaccinated via a completely separate route to the rest of us. (again this is complicated but designed to stop cheating/fraud).

 

[Spectric]

The virus has to be identified first which takes time.

That is not how safety works, all you need to know is that there is a potential serious hazzard coming your way, so react and stop the hazzard, then you are in control and can identify it is a virus and take the upper hand rather than letting it through and then having to chase it.

It is like someone pointing a gun in your direction, you don't wait to find out if it is real, fake or who manufactured it you just respond and keep your head down.

 

[MikeJhn]

Anyone else here read the Times? Not usually known for hysterical exaggeration in its reporting, which is why I like it - which makes today’s reading all the more depressing for those of us desperate to get to away as I fear it’s probably quite accurate.

I can’t link due to the paywall but this is the gist of it:
Three separate articles on the third wave of Covid sweeping Europe, France’s infection rate spiralling out of control, the mass exodus out of Paris to avoid the newly imposed lockdown (thus inevitably spreading it to more rural areas,) the catastrophic consequences of Macron’s comments over Oxford Astra Zeneca and ongoing lack of confidence in it across the EU but particularly in France, the bungling incompetence of the vaccine rollout (or lack of) across the EU and the internal schisms appearing as countries argue amongst themselves about whose fault it is.

And now another schism over the threatened banning of vaccine exports out of the EU. Belgium, Ireland, Netherlands, Poland and Sweden have allied against Ursula VDL’s proposals backed by Germany, France and Italy.

 

[Amateur]

That is not how safety works, all you need to know is that there is a potential serious hazzard coming your way, so react and stop the hazzard, then you are in control and can identify it is a virus and take the upper hand rather than letting it through and then having to chase it.

It is like someone pointing a gun in your direction, you don't wait to find out if it is real, fake or who manufactured it you just respond and keep your head down.

you can't respond to a virus without first understanding what it is and what the threat is.

 

[Trainee neophyte]

And now another schism over the threatened banning of vaccine exports out of the EU. Belgium, Ireland, Netherlands, Poland and Sweden have allied against Ursula VDL’s proposals backed by Germany, France and Italy.

Unfortunately it is hard to separate politics from public health with all of this. The Russian vaccine is both effective and available, and offered for manufacture inside the EU, but obviously the better choice is not vaccinating all of Europe because of the optics. Tie that in with Nordstream (which is hugely more important geopolitically for Germany and USA, and Russia for that matter, than all this covid nonsense) and you can construct some quite elegant theories around purposely failing to have a vaccination rollout so as to turn to Russia as a final hail - Mary fait acomplis.

However, "never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity" is almost certainly the way forward here. Just incompetent bureaucrats empire building with no comprehension of or consideration for the consequences. Fairly standard for the EU.

 

[Amateur]

So, I read posts quoting statistics as flawed, also different countries using different metrics, some countries with low outbreaks vs. low transient population yada yada. This isn't a p*ssing contest guys. Things are getting much better, but complacency is now the enemy; people who have had their ***(s) are feeling they can go back to normal and people who haven't (under 60s in the UK) see this and just copy their behaviour. Now we hear of people travelling from red list countries with new variants attempting to enter the UK without quarantining. It is still a dangerous world.

You raise a very interesting point that people just don't seem to understand.
The full extent of antibodies after the injection takes some time to build up in the body, then they start to reduce.
Testing of first and second *** candidates to establish how long antibodies give you this protection is still being monitored, but it is hoped that after the second *** it should be enough to give people six months protection.
However, you can still catch covid 19 but it shouldn't be as severe as not being vaccinated at all, and should prevent deaths in the majority of cases.
The industry is now working on a single covid injection to be taken along with the flu injection once a year. As things progress this will probably be incorporated with the flu vaccine as a single injection sometime in the future.
Unlocking the population too early with not a high enough percentage vaccinated could cause rising infection rates.
And with a known six months protection everything that's been worked for could be lost.
All this could change as time goes on and more knowledge about the virus is learned.

 

[Lefley]

You raise a very interesting point that people just don't seem to understand.
The full extent of antibodies after the injection takes some time to build up in the body, then they start to reduce.
Testing of first and second *** candidates to establish how long antibodies give you this protection is still being monitored, but it is hoped that after the second *** it should be enough to give people six months protection.
However, you can still catch covid 19 but it shouldn't be as severe as not being vaccinated at all, and should prevent deaths in the majority of cases.
The industry is now working on a single covid injection to be taken along with the flu injection once a year. As things progress this will probably be incorporated with the flu vaccine as a single injection sometime in the future.
Unlocking the population too early with not a high enough percentage vaccinated could cause rising infection rates.
And with a known six months protection everything that's been worked for could be lost.
All this could change as time goes on and more knowledge about the virus is learned.

Unlocking the public early also causes the virus to mutate. Which in turn can cause everyone that has had the original vaccine to be not effective to the new strain! Right back to square one only worse! Now every country is broke!

 

[TominDales]

Unlocking the public early also causes the virus to mutate. Which in turn can cause everyone that has had the original vaccine to be not effective to the new strain! Right back to square one only worse! Now every country is broke!

Although that is a possibility, its unlikely to be that extreme. A number of factors are on our side compared with 12 months ago.

- Most significantly we know that vaccines work on coronaviruses, this was an unknown 12 months ago, past attempts to develop vaccines for rhinoviruses and coronaviruses were not effective. This time, more modern design and modeling capability of the receptor sites, and the relative stability of Covid has let to vaccines that are really very effective. 12 months ago the UK government bet £13bn on vaccine development and procurement, not knowing that any of it would work. This time round we know that investment in vaccine R&D and production is a low risk investment, so money will flow, both private and public.

-Vaccine production is ramping up globally, very quickly, vaccines are hard to manufacture, a lot of advanced know-how is needed. As processes get perfected production will become enormous, so will the supply chain from factory gate to patients arm. (its partly relates to the risk factor mentioned in the past point), most companies are only just getting the manufacturing recipes right.

- Provided the manufacturing process for new variants of Covid closely follow the early vaccines, ( this will happen, but there is still a bit of process development needed) there will be less need (or no need) for the early stage clinical trials, as the product will be substantially unaltered, so clinical trials can skip to the later phases, vastly shortening the cycle. As with the flu type cycle, which means we can have a steady feed of new-variant vaccines at production scale. Flu has two sixth monthly cycles each year, its starts with a booster for the northern hemisphere then an update is prepared for the southern hemisphere to teat emerging strains and then updated again for the north. There is no reason why Covid boosters should not follow this pattern or even more frequent updates.
Technology is in development for enable biological medicines to be made on demand at the patients bedside, this is only a few years away from reality. If there was a need, this type of engineering could be fast tracked for rapid virus development , a few years away admittedly, but not a pipe dream.

- medical treatment has improved, we have learned what works, many drugs have become available that reduces the worst side effects of covid thanks to Martin Landray and his team in Oxford, and advanced monoclonal antibody treatments are becoming available for the ultra vulnerable - this will continue to improve

- we have learned how to reduce the spread of infection, lockdowns are extremely effective and will be available should things get out of hand, other measures such as wearing of masks etc are now a matter of habit.

A continuing problem is the virus will keep finding pools of unprotected people as it spreads around the globe, at the moment daily infections rates are down from the peak of 800,000 recorded in December to nearer 500,000 (but rising again). Until vaccines become universal this will be a worry. However data is emerging that some developing countries in Africa and South Asia that still rely on contagious disease control similar to what we had in the 1950 when we had isolation hospitals, TB hospitals, and even school sanitariums, where infectious diseases were confined and treated in separate hospitals. This infrastructure has been postulated as to why infection spread in some developing countries (with good data recording) has been low. ( ignoring countries that lie about the true state of infection such as N Korea, Tanzania, Russia etc). Some in the UK are suggesting we go back to this structure if Covid hangs on.

So whilst there is a lot to worry about, and complacency would be disastrous (as it was last year), there are genuine reasons for optimism and assuming a worst case scenario is unlikely. It does not mean we wont be fighting virus flare-up for years to come, but we should learn to live with it and get on with re-building our economies .

 

[selectortone]

Anyone else here read the Times? Not usually known for hysterical exaggeration in its reporting, which is why I like it - which makes today’s reading all the more depressing for those of us desperate to get to away as I fear it’s probably quite accurate.

I can’t link due to the paywall but this is the gist of it:
Three separate articles on the third wave of Covid sweeping Europe, France’s infection rate spiralling out of control, the mass exodus out of Paris to avoid the newly imposed lockdown (thus inevitably spreading it to more rural areas,) the catastrophic consequences of Macron’s comments over Oxford Astra Zeneca and ongoing lack of confidence in it across the EU but particularly in France, the bungling incompetence of the vaccine rollout (or lack of) across the EU and the internal schisms appearing as countries argue amongst themselves about whose fault it is.

And now another schism over the threatened banning of vaccine exports out of the EU. Belgium, Ireland, Netherlands, Poland and Sweden have allied against Ursula VDL’s proposals backed by Germany, France and Italy.

Why on earth would anyone want to holiday in the EU? It sounds like it's total chaos over there, and I speak as a vehement anti-Brexiter. The various government heads, Macron in particular, (who needs a good kick up the arris), have shown themselves up to be total incompetents. There's no way on earth I'll be going abroad in the foreseeable future. Plenty of nice places to visit here.

 

[Lefley]

Why on earth would anyone want to holiday in the EU? It sounds like it's toal chaos over there, and I speak as a vehement anti-Brexiter. The various government heads, Macron in particular, (who needs a good kick up the arris), have shown themselves up to be total incompetents. There's no way on earth I'll be going abroad in the foreseeable future. Plenty of nice places to visit here.

You can’t even find a campsite around here. Everyone holidaying locally or at least in the country. Can’t find garden seeds. People going back to the old days. Doing local things, and growing, gardens.

as a builder it’s had to be one of the busiest years ever. Every body had to stay home, so they started looking st there own houses and the Reno’s started to happen. We also live in the mountains. There was a mass exodus of people realizing they could work from home and they have been leaving the city and buying there retirement homes in the country years early and working from there. The city business rentals are all empty. Businesses realizing they can run offices without having everyone come into work.