THE FOURTH OF JULY

[Scruples]

and the breakdown

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The problem looks like we have an aging population which is just going to keep going up, a lot of inactive workers which means there will be fewer people paying into the system as more people are withdrawing and a stagnant economy. They are trying to put the brakes on pensioners by raising the age to keep them working but the cost is just going to keep on growing.

Brexit is now history, no point in pondering the what if's or debating it because it is done and rather than wallow in the past we must look forward and stand on our own feet like we used to do for centuries, the problem here is that we do not have much left on which to grow an economy and have become lazy and relied on others far too much.

Indeed, people are going to live longer but a lot of them have good pensions aside from the state pension and still pay income tax and VAT.

 

[Scruples]

Poor old Craig Williams, betting a ton on a July election. He was only doing what many of his immediate colleagues had done, insider info for personal gain, tho on a tiny scale in comparison with them. What an [bottom] - tho a timely reminder of what the tories are about.

I think what you meant was - a timely reminder of what human nature is about.

 

[Scruples]

Farage was interviewed on LBC this morning. He insists that Brexit is a success story whose failure is down to implementation incompetence by the Tory party.

I think him delusional - but he is a very effective communicator whose views will resonate with many.

The entire Brexit case was characterised by spin and slogans. Facts and logic counted for little as Remainers found on polling day.

There is a lot in common with current GE campaigns - what separates Tory from Labour economically is marginal trivia. Changes in tax regimes and spending which may total (say) £20bn pa is less than 1% of UK GDP of £2274bn.

Neither has any radical or transformational ideas - slightly tuned more of the same. Labour poll lead is overwhelmingly down to emotion (they are not Tories), not that they have fundamentally and materially better ideas (difficult to see much difference at all).

This may be at the heart of why Reform are picking up a lot of support:

• they have sound bites not policies - simple to understand
• they communicate clear intentions without spin - unlike the establishment parties
• alienating those who don't agree with them is an acceptable price to be paid for the support of those who do

So, the obvious solution is to let Reform win a term in office and let the population see how they pan out. After all, there aren't any other options that jump out at us, are there?

 

[Scruples]

No one made it happen. That's the point; there was never a form of Brexit that "worked".

On the morning after the vote there were plenty of exasperated journalists realising that those who championed Leave didn't actually have any plan for what they'd do if they won. It is, was, and always will have been, a fantasy.

From that moment onwards (other than admitting the con) the only thing they could do was to blame everyone and everything else for the lack of unicorns and sunlit uplands. It's amazing how all the various Brexit backers keep telling us it would have been brilliant if only it'd been done the way they said - despite many of them actually being in power over the last few years.

I'll remind you again - it was Cummings - the head of Vote Leave, who described Davis as thick.

You may have to be reminded that it wasn't up to the Brexit campaigners to provide a manifesto. After all, they weren't in power. What they did was to point out the shortcomings of EU membership, both economically and judicially. It was the Conservatives that had to build a plan following Brexit. And, I think, they would have had the pandemic not intervened. Cummings wasn't as clever as he thought he was. But then, who is?

 

[Scruples]

Not a hard job.

Certainly easier to cast insults than real truths, I suppose. It is usually the sign of lost argument.

 

[Scruples]

If I recall correctly that was one of the claims (or depending on your level of cynicism, excuses) from the people who did the predictions - they got the numbers right (in that there was a remain majority) but underestimated the low turnout amongst younger voters. Ironically, not getting out to vote hurt them the most.

You're right. The nation voted for Brexit. Forget the 'what ifs' and the 'if onlys'.

 

[Keith Cocker]

Those who 'made it happen' were the majority of those who bothered to vote.

Lot's of those who say they 'didn't vote for Brexit' didn't vote, full stop.

Like many I guess, I was surprised at the outcome of the EU referendum – I’d imagined that with the pre-referendum doom-laden ‘Project Fear’ campaign, the result would have been something like 57/43 to remain, due to the effect of London and Scottish votes.

As with the current pre-election debates, the standard of debate was appalling – little objective information – just a lot of name-calling on both sides. Rather too many (on any topic), seem to have lost the ability to disagree with others, without be disagreeable. 'Going for the player - not the ball'. (Anti)social media seems to have made matters far worse and that's not going to change.

After the referendum, the very people who claim to be concerned about the economy, were the ‘prophets of doom’ who are dragging it down, not helped by the ‘Twitterati’ – those such as Jeremy Clarkson, who offensively said “the country has been trashed by a bunch of old ‘coffin dodgers’ in the North who don’t want to live next to a ******”. Ironic that Clarkson should use ageist and racially offensive terms to accuse others of being racist, but then he’s got form as regards to making racist, xenophobic, sexist and ageist comments. And he was wrong of course, as he so often is.

Every single Region of Great Britain (including Gibraltar), except London, N.I. and Scotland voted to leave - the highest proportion being not in the North, but in the West Midlands, where 59.6% voted to leave – the same proportion who in London, voted to stay, but then London is no more typical of G.B. than the Vatican is of Italy.

It was said that 'ignorant old fogies trashed their grandchildren’s future'. Well consider the proportion that bothered to vote in each age band, and how they voted:

Age band: % who voted How they voted

18-24 yrs olds: 38% 64/36% remain/leave
25-34 yrs old: 45% 57/43% remain/leave
35-44 yrs old: 53% 54/46% remain/leave
45-54 yrs old: 66% 44/54% remain/leave
55 yrs plus: 80% 40/60% remain/leave

So, if six in ten under 25s didn’t even bother to vote, fewer than half of 25-34 yr olds, and just over half of 35-44 yr olds, it seems to me that if they don’t like the outcome, maybe they should have put their votes where their mouths were, like eight out of ten over 55s did? Do they ever consider how much of a struggle former generations had to get the vote that six out of ten under 25s don’t bother to use?

It's all history now .

'All the King's horses and all the King's men,
Can't put Humpty Dumpty back together again'.

Your blithe dismissal of the worst thing to happen to Great Britain in a very long time is disgraceful.

Wrong. The success was down to good management and education of the colonies. If Britain was that bad, would we still have Commonwealth countries today?

“we sure iz grateful to you massa!” was the universal chorus of the former colonies.

 

[RobinBHM]

Or Brexit is done and some people need to get over it and move on.

Brexit is a process not an event.

Odd how Brexit supporters are so desperate for everybody to move on, it’s almost like they aren’t proud of the results.

Nevermind Keir Starmer, a Europhile will be renegotiating the TCA in 2026.

Keir Starmer has already been talking to EU leaders and it won’t be long before we start the process of re aligning U.K. with its largest and nearest trade partner

Brexit was only ever a vehicle for the disaster capitalists, hedge fund managers and mates of Russian Oligarchs to make money out of the chaos. Anybody that has researched Tufton street network will see what it’s all about

 

[Chris152]

Wrong. The success was down to good management and education of the colonies. If Britain was that bad, would we still have Commonwealth countries today?

Your confidence in your perspective on British empire is misplaced, Scruples. You've clearly not looked carefully (or at all) at the impact of colonisation on the colonised countries and their people, preferring instead a nice, comfortable fiction about our past.

 

[Rhossydd]

My understanding is that a large part of Britain's historical economic success was won precisely off the back of others, under the title of "empire'.

Not entirely. Much of Britain's past success has been due to having the raw materials needed for the technology of the day; Timber in Tudor times, Iron, Copper, Tin and coal for the industrial revolution.
Now we don't have that proliferation of resources, we've used them all up.

What's been lacking is the government vision to invest in industries that could have replaced the expired old ones. That could have provided jobs, wealth locally and national security to not be reliant on foreign countries for key goods.

 

[RobinBHM]

What's been lacking is the government vision to invest in industries that could have replaced the expired old ones. That could have provided jobs

We should learn from what Germany did after reunification

They invested heavily in educating and training in engineering, manufacturing, they created a culture where workers in those sectors were highly regarded as professionals.

Germany is now a global powerhouse


UK meanwhile increased the numbers of people going to university to do non vocational degrees and FE colleges were not developed.


UK does have an excellent manufacturing sector, CNC, robotics and AI are enabling businesses to claw back work from China.


This country needs investment in vocational education, better infrastructure / public services and it needs to remove the high trade barriers created by brexit.
That’s how you create sustainable growth.

And you need affordable housing, so people can afford to live where jobs are.

Lowering taxes a La Truss is not sustainable growth, it’s free market deregulation where the wealth is creamed off the poor and scooped up by the wealthy. (Basically the purpose of brexit)

 

[sploo]

You may have to be reminded that it wasn't up to the Brexit campaigners to provide a manifesto. After all, they weren't in power. What they did was to point out the shortcomings of EU membership, both economically and judicially. It was the Conservatives that had to build a plan following Brexit. And, I think, they would have had the pandemic not intervened. Cummings wasn't as clever as he thought he was. But then, who is?

If I tell you it'd be a really great idea to jump out of an aircraft without a parachute, and ignore all those doom mongers who keep whinging on about this "gravity" nonsense; you might rightly hold me somewhat accountable when you finally jumped, and realised you're in big trouble.

The Brexit champions spent significant time claiming that everything would be fine; whilst displaying a complete lack of any understanding of international trade or law.

If anything, the pandemic's impact on the economy probably masked some of the damage caused by Brexit; so despite it further highlighting the incompetence of Johnson et al, it possibly "helped" the Brexiteers.

Yes, Cummings is nowhere near as clever as the genius he made himself out to be. The fact that he was the smartest guy in the (Brexit) room should speak volumes.

 

[sploo]

So, the obvious solution is to let Reform win a term in office and let the population see how they pan out. After all, there aren't any other options that jump out at us, are there?

That would be a truly chilling prospect. Take everything that's bad (and staggeringly incompetent) about the current Conservative party, and amplify it; that's literally Reform.

 

[Scruples]

Brexit is a process not an event.

Odd how Brexit supporters are so desperate for everybody to move on, it’s almost like they aren’t proud of the results.

Nevermind Keir Starmer, a Europhile will be renegotiating the TCA in 2026.

Keir Starmer has already been talking to EU leaders and it won’t be long before we start the process of re aligning U.K. with its largest and nearest trade partner

Brexit was only ever a vehicle for the disaster capitalists, hedge fund managers and mates of Russian Oligarchs to make money out of the chaos. Anybody that has researched Tufton street network will see what it’s all about

The whole point of Brexit was to, as you rightly pointed out, start the process of extrication from the EU, settling existing obligations and, indeed, moving on. We've had the annoyances and setbacks from Covid which have slowed the progress but we need to get on with the changes that Brexit has brought and will continue to bring.
I doubt the Russians are bothered too much about Brexit; they have enough on the plate with their 'police action'. The financial sector, as was highlighted by the attempts of Truss, don't like change; the modern luddites, perhaps?
If Labour weaken Brexit. they won't find much support from the electorate.

 

[Rhossydd]

If Labour weaken Brexit. they won't find much support from the electorate.

Every credible opinion poll since the vote has had a majority wishing it hadn't happened.
Closer links and easier trading will be welcomed by the VAST majority in the UK.

 

[Spectric]

Not entirely. Much of Britain's past success has been due to having the raw materials needed for the technology of the day; Timber in Tudor times, Iron, Copper, Tin and coal for the industrial revolution.
Now we don't have that proliferation of resources, we've used them all up.

We got a lot of raw materials from the empire but are still sitting on huge coal reserves.

Odd how Brexit supporters are so desperate for everybody to move on, it’s almost like they aren’t proud of the results.

Brexit was a starting point and you have to move on to undertake the journey to some destination, hanging around at the start means nothing will be achieved which is why we are not benefiting from Brexit, they find comfort at the starting line but are afraid of what lies ahead.

So, the obvious solution is to let Reform win a term in office and let the population see how they pan out. After all, there aren't any other options that jump out at us, are there?

That would be a good outcome but instead we will have to wait until Starmer is in number 10 before discovering just how much damage he can do, but we get some idea when you hear they want to apply capital gains tax to your home. I think after 5 years of labour, with the conservatives still fresh in the mind then it might well be time for Reform because otherwise we will just continue the back and forth motion where the average is zero as we sink deeper.

Every credible opinion poll since the vote has had a majority wishing it hadn't happened.
Closer links and easier trading will be welcomed by the VAST majority in the UK.

Don't fall for that one, the reason people are not happy is that brexit has only happened on paper, the government has never moved forward and taken full advantage of it and in that process has destroyed itself. The solution is to work harder to get more involved with the east, India, China etc and become more part of what will become both the worlds economic and military super powers and stick a finger up at the Eu.

 

[Keith Cocker]

We got a lot of raw materials from the empire but are still sitting on huge coal reserves.


Brexit was a starting point and you have to move on to undertake the journey to some destination, hanging around at the start means nothing will be achieved which is why we are not benefiting from Brexit, they find comfort at the starting line but are afraid of what lies ahead.


That would be a good outcome but instead we will have to wait until Starmer is in number 10 before discovering just how much damage he can do, but we get some idea when you hear they want to apply capital gains tax to your home. I think after 5 years of labour, with the conservatives still fresh in the mind then it might well be time for Reform because otherwise we will just continue the back and forth motion where the average is zero as we sink deeper.



Don't fall for that one, the reason people are not happy is that brexit has only happened on paper, the government has never moved forward and taken full advantage of it and in that process has destroyed itself. The solution is to work harder to get more involved with the east, India, China etc and become more part of what will become both the worlds economic and military super powers and stick a finger up at the Eu.

Misguided rubbish from beginning to end.

 

[DerekJohn]

I’m not convinced he is a serious intellectual, he has also been predicting the imminent collapse of for a long time: China, Russia, Canada.

The USA tends to be anti EU so it’s popular to put forward theories of demise.

Clearly EU has structural issues including the failed Euro, CAP, reliance on Russian gas and immigration…..but it’s still a global economic superpower and a major trade partner to pretty much every global economy.

The rise of the populist right is not evidence of its demise, just the ebb and flow of politics

I have been following Peter Zeihan for some years and watching China's debt levels since 2014. They have 20 or so empty cities and useless airports. Robert Preston wrote about this on the BBC years ago. It is the international markets delaying the inevitable
I wrote this article in 2014 and include a link to Robert Preston's article:-
https://www.ruskinweb.co.uk/the-elephant-in-the-room/

 

[sploo]

Don't fall for that one, the reason people are not happy is that brexit has only happened on paper, the government has never moved forward and taken full advantage of it and in that process has destroyed itself. The solution is to work harder to get more involved with the east, India, China etc and become more part of what will become both the worlds economic and military super powers and stick a finger up at the Eu.

I'm still looking forward to the "full advantage" of what Brexit will bring us. Or even finding out what those advantages may be (by that I mean real, actual, advantages to the UK economy and it's people - not nonsense and fantasy claims by people with no understanding of international trade and law).

 

[RobinBHM]

I'm still looking forward to

you are clearly a very very very patient person with a very long life expectancy