One-jab efficacy questions

[Selwyn]

The main purpose of face masks as worn by the general public, indoors is to reduce the number and distance that respiratory droplets spread in the air from an infected person. Difficult to set up a randomised trial to prove this. Countries who seemed to have controlled the virus well generally have this as one of their policies. An exception to this is island nations who shut their borders before the virus got to them.

The type of masks worn by the general public will not stop transmission, the idea is that it reduces it. Hence the social distancing as well.

It is a low cost low risk intervention so the proof of effectiveness Is low. Most people have accepted it.

I do not understand why it is so controversial to you.

Its an "idea" but it doesn't work.

The reason it is controversial to me is because it allows a continuing narrative that covid is waiting in the wings ready to explode at any time and it encourages people to see fear or potential danger in every interaction they have and this is not the case.

Masks continue to perpetuate the myth that anyone is vulnerable to covid when overwhelmingly they are not, and that that somehow we are better protected with masks and we are not. They should be voluntary for those who need the security blanket not a state controlled thing.

 

[Jonm]

They should be voluntary for those who need the security blanket

The point is that the main purpose of wearing a mask is to stop people with coronavirus passing it on. People wearing masks believe they are protecting others and expect others to do the same for them. They perceive someone near them, indoors without a mask as dangerous to them. Making it ”voluntary” would not do this. There are many instances where it is illegal to do things which are of no danger to you but are to others around you.

There is plenty of evidence that masks work in reducing the spread in indoor situations and the government have accepted that, despite some initial reluctance, actually at first they got confused with masks to protect the wearer. You and others may disagree but setting up a meaningful real life trial is extremely difficult and I doubt you would believe it anyway.

 

[Selwyn]

The point is that the main purpose of wearing a mask is to stop people with coronavirus passing it on. People wearing masks believe they are protecting others and expect others to do the same for them. They perceive someone near them, indoors without a mask as dangerous to them. Making it ”voluntary” would not do this. There are many instances where it is illegal to do things which are of no danger to you but are to others around you.

There is plenty of evidence that masks work in reducing the spread in indoor situations and the government have accepted that, despite some initial reluctance, actually at first they got confused with masks to protect the wearer. You and others may disagree but setting up a meaningful real life trial is extremely difficult and I doubt you would believe it anyway.

Well given the experience of countries / regions not wearing masks showing no difference in infection and seeing the places wearing masks sometimes showing an increase in virus then no I wouldn't believe it.

Its more about state control and keeping the fear factor going than actual mask. Do the majority of people put a fresh clean mask on each time they use it? No. Loads of people have it round their chin. Its ridiculous. Man on NERVTAG advising Sage said this the other day.

The only thing that probably has made a difference is people working from home

 

[Chris152]

Fellas, you may as well go on god.com (I expect it exists) and argue with a couple of religious fundamentalists that their god doesn't exist.
Most of us have enough humility to respect the opinions of the world's leading scientists on what to do and what not to do in the midst of a pandemic. Some don't. The more you argue with the latter, the more opportunity you give them to spread the ideas they've scraped together on the internet that contradict leading scientific consensus, without themselves understanding that there are always contrary views amid the scientific (and other academic) communities, nor understanding how to judge between them. Like a dripping tap, they'll keep going, trying to appear to win an argument, possibly even change behaviours. The consequences of which could be very serious.
I haven't got a clue about the virology or epidemiology, but I have good enough judgement to decide who to trust. Tbh, I don't know why the mods haven't shut this thread down given the 'contrary' and potentially dangerous information and views a couple of people are trying to promote.

 

[selectortone]

^Yep

 

[Jonm]

Fellas, you may as well go on god.com (I expect it exists) and argue with a couple of religious fundamentalists that their god doesn't exist.
Most of us have enough humility to respect the opinions of the world's leading scientists on what to do and what not to do in the midst of a pandemic. Some don't. The more you argue with the latter, the more opportunity you give them to spread the ideas they've scraped together on the internet that contradict leading scientific consensus, without themselves understanding that there are always contrary views amid the scientific (and other academic) communities, nor understanding how to judge between them. Like a dripping tap, they'll keep going, trying to appear to win an argument, possibly even change behaviours. The consequences of which could be very serious.
I haven't got a clue about the virology or epidemiology, but I have good enough judgement to decide who to trust. Tbh, I don't know why the mods haven't shut this thread down given the 'contrary' and potentially dangerous information and views a couple of people are trying to promote.

We are approaching a critical time, with lockdown easing and the indian variant on the increase. It is likely that there will be lots of confusing data to try and understand. This discussion actually helps and I have learnt a lot, so I hope it does not get closed down.

The discussion about India cases peaking and mask wearing has got tedious. As for “dangerous information” I think all such views have been challenged, I doubt anyone has actually changed their behaviour for the worse.

 

[Selwyn]

Fellas, you may as well go on god.com (I expect it exists) and argue with a couple of religious fundamentalists that their god doesn't exist.
Most of us have enough humility to respect the opinions of the world's leading scientists on what to do and what not to do in the midst of a pandemic. Some don't. The more you argue with the latter, the more opportunity you give them to spread the ideas they've scraped together on the internet that contradict leading scientific consensus, without themselves understanding that there are always contrary views amid the scientific (and other academic) communities, nor understanding how to judge between them. Like a dripping tap, they'll keep going, trying to appear to win an argument, possibly even change behaviours. The consequences of which could be very serious.
I haven't got a clue about the virology or epidemiology, but I have good enough judgement to decide who to trust. Tbh, I don't know why the mods haven't shut this thread down given the 'contrary' and potentially dangerous information and views a couple of people are trying to promote.

Actually all we are saying is that Covid is nasty disease but it is not so virulent to the extent that it needs shutting down the economy, schools and putting the country in £372 billion of extra debt. If you think that is marvellous then thats fine.

Vaccinating all these healthy children is the next thing "experts" are doing..

There isn't a scientific consensus either..

 

[Chris152]

The discussion about India cases peaking and mask wearing has got tedious.

It's become too utterly ridiculous and toe-curlingly childish to look at. And it's dominated the thread, making it impossible to have a proper discussion.

Selwyn - in normal English usage, the plural of virus is 'viruses'. No apostrophe. Surprised you didn't pick that up while doing your post-doc.

 

[Selwyn]

It's become too utterly ridiculous and toe-curlingly childish to look at. And it's dominated the thread, making it impossible to have a proper discussion.

Selwyn - in normal English usage, the plural of virus is 'viruses'. No apostrophe. Surprised you didn't pick that up while doing your post-doc.

Why are you being childish? What does it matter about an apostrophe.

My point about masks is that in a lot of places they don't use them and have no difference in viral curves, the evidence for them is not strong. In fact its extremely weak. And India is just amply demonstrating how a virus spreads and recedes. In terms of deaths its barely a flicker in the scheme of daily Indian deaths. The variant is only being pushed in this country because in hotspots where Asians live in the UK they aren't getting injected

 

[RobinBHM]

Fellas, you may as well go on god.com (I expect it exists) and argue with a couple of religious fundamentalists that their god doesn't exist.
Most of us have enough humility to respect the opinions of the world's leading scientists on what to do and what not to do in the midst of a pandemic. Some don't. The more you argue with the latter, the more opportunity you give them to spread the ideas they've scraped together on the internet that contradict leading scientific consensus, without themselves understanding that there are always contrary views amid the scientific (and other academic) communities, nor understanding how to judge between them. Like a dripping tap, they'll keep going, trying to appear to win an argument, possibly even change behaviours. The consequences of which could be very serious.
I haven't got a clue about the virology or epidemiology, but I have good enough judgement to decide who to trust. Tbh, I don't know why the mods haven't shut this thread down given the 'contrary' and potentially dangerous information and views a couple of people are trying to promote.

A fairer solution would be if this thread was allowed to continue without Selwyn and Rorschach spoiling for everyone else.

I am very happy with robust debate, different views are how we broaden our understanding. However the wilful posting of endless misinformation and endless logical fallacies makes it impossible to have any form of sensible debate.

This has become a perfect example of how misinformation can easily be posted faster than it can be debunked.....so the facts and evidence never catch up. It's like playing whack a mole.

 

[Rorschach]

A fairer solution would be if this thread was allowed to continue without Selwyn and Rorschach spoiling for everyone else.

I am very happy with robust debate, different views are how we broaden our understanding. However the wilful posting of endless misinformation and endless logical fallacies makes it impossible to have any form of sensible debate.

This has become a perfect example of how misinformation can easily be posted faster than it can be debunked.....so the facts and evidence never catch up. It's like playing whack a mole.

I wondered how long you would hold out before falling back on the classic tactics of those who know they are wrong.

 

[Selwyn]

A fairer solution would be if this thread was allowed to continue without Selwyn and Rorschach spoiling for everyone else.

I am very happy with robust debate, different views are how we broaden our understanding. However the wilful posting of endless misinformation and endless logical fallacies makes it impossible to have any form of sensible debate.

This has become a perfect example of how misinformation can easily be posted faster than it can be debunked.....so the facts and evidence never catch up. It's like playing whack a mole.

Come off it. Tim Spector? John Lee? Endless misinformation?

There are loads of counter arguments to the UK covid narrative but they just don't suit you because you have invested heavily in the idea that everyone is at risk. They're not. Schools have been open a couple of months and it is becoming clearer by the day they should never have been shut.

 

[Terry - Somerset]

How about a change of covid topic.

The government has had a lot of criticism for its reluctance to put India on the "red list". It is being touted as the reason why "Step 4" return to normality may not happen as planned.

The link below is to a report in the Guardian 5 days ago showing that 21 countries have sequenced the Indian variants including 486 in the US and 85 in Australia (held in high regard for effective border control) , 156 in Singapore and 29 in Japan.

Guardian - India variant

Whilst the Guardian often demonstrates a clear political bias, it tends to be fairly reliable in its factual content.

Questions

• do these figures demonstrate that trying to control borders is ultimately futile
• is criticism of the government justified or simple political point scoring
• UK has the highest number of cases outside India. Is this simply the result UK capacity enabling more cases to be sequenced.

 

[sometimewoodworker]

Questions

• do these figures demonstrate that trying to control borders is ultimately futile
• is criticism of the government justified or simple political point scoring
• UK has the highest number of cases outside India. Is this simply the result UK capacity enabling more cases to be sequenced.

Answers
1) no the figures show that if you live in a country with a ineffective government that acts late you have a huge chance of death or infection look at Thailand and Australia for how border control works to control propagation.
2) more than justified
3) sequencing has no effect on cases it just tells you what you have

 

[rwillett]

I have found that blocking some members completely changes this thread (for the better) and filters out most of the noise leaving most of the signal intact.

Once I did that, I learnt an awful lot about stuff I have had zero interest in before, but is now rather important but also I gained a greater respect for a number of people who clearly knew their stuff and could back it up with evidence.

As an ex AP in a very large large IT consultancy, I believe I can waffle with the very best, indeed being able to stand up on my hind legs and talk to a client on any IT subject for an hour with zero preparation and, more importantly, zero knowledge of the subject and no evidence to back it up, is a job requirement. So I feel I am eminently qualified to recognise other wafflers. There are a number on here.

I can also recognise my bete noire, those people knowledgeable, prepared, able to back up their arguments with facts and evidence, who can pull together a number of distinct and non associated issues into a coherent and logical conclusion in the face of silly person jabberings. I read these people's words with respect and consider them carefully. I don't necessarily agree with everything they say, but through their efforts to backup what they say with facts, they have absolutely earned the right to be listened to.

I will continue to read this thread with interest, knowing I have quietened the jabbering monkeys and hopefully I will continue to learn. I suspect most people can work out which is which.

Best wishes.

Rob

 

[Jonm]

3) sequencing has no effect on cases it just tells you what you have

I think you have misunderstood the question. Looking at the article, India has sequenced 1876 cases of the Indian variant, UK has sequenced 1587 cases, so clearly the numbers you sequence has an influence on the numbers of indian variant you find. UK leads the world in the total number of coronavirus cases it sequences, it is one thing we have got right.

To actually answer the question needs looking at the percentage of sequencing in the countries listed and whether they are actively looking for the indian variant and have stepped up sequencing in hot spots.

 

[Jonm]

I think you have misunderstood the question. Looking at the article, India has sequenced 1876 cases of the Indian variant, UK has sequenced 1587 cases, so clearly the numbers you sequence has an influence on the numbers of indian variant you find. UK leads the world in the numbers sequenced.

To actually answer the question needs looking at the percentage of sequencing in the countries listed and whether they are actively looking for the indian variant and have stepped up sequencing in hot spots.

Trying to find number of genome sequencing by country is difficult. I found this article
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1201971220325571It contains a bar chart of Countries and number of sequences, it is out of date, 6 Sept 2020. Also be careful of the scale on the left hand side, it is not linear. Chart reproduced below.

There are lots of references to the GISAID database. Need to register to access it, it is aimed at scientists in the field so probably incomprehensible to me without spending a lot of time on it.

 

[Terry - Somerset]

The question is about how effective border controls really are when the variant has been detected so widely in countries (Oz being the obvious example) previously lauded for effective border control to inhibit infection.

As has been said before - absence of evidence does not mean evidence of absence. Therefore even those showing low (or zero) cases may be understating the real problem.

Is there any point to the red/amber/green travel list and the cost and bureaucracy surrounding implementation. If international transmission cannot be stopped, the only issue is whether the existing vaccines are effective and rolled with sufficient speed.

I have no doubt that the UK has been slow to respond to outbreaks with sufficient vigour. Whether that is due to differences in culture, behaviours, political regime, enforcement is another debate.

 

[Selwyn]

The question is about how effective border controls really are when the variant has been detected so widely in countries (Oz being the obvious example) previously lauded for effective border control to inhibit infection.

As has been said before - absence of evidence does not mean evidence of absence. Therefore even those showing low (or zero) cases may be understating the real problem.

Is there any point to the red/amber/green travel list and the cost and bureaucracy surrounding implementation. If international transmission cannot be stopped, the only issue is whether the existing vaccines are effective and rolled with sufficient speed.

I have no doubt that the UK has been slow to respond to outbreaks with sufficient vigour. Whether that is due to differences in culture, behaviours, political regime, enforcement is another debate.

Terry - the existing vaccines are effective against Covid 19. This has already been demonstrated - not least because these "variants" which seem to come through thick and fast - kent ,south african, brazilian etc are so similar to each other. They don't evolve much at all.

The whole Indian variant thing in the UK is pushed because of a. the suspicion that pockets of asians are reluctant to take the vaccine and b. the vaccine take up in the Uk is not as high as is suggested. I actually have no idea why we are even thinking of vaccinating under 40's unless they request it. We actually need the virus to circulate in the young and healthy it is better in the longer term

Remember the most vulnerable were vaccinated long ago so really its all about keeping the narrative going now.

Australia will eventually get some Covid 19. Its absolutely inevitable.

 

[Selwyn]

Non-sequitur. Being led by a bunch of profligate asses doesn't make covid any less deadly.

Bites lip.....

We have known since March 2020 the profiles of who its most likely to affect badly. And in March 2020 Covid was everywhere yet the pretence is that everyone is vulnerable. They are not