One-*** efficacy questions

[Terry - Somerset]

Total covid deaths in Germany are 86,000. Since end June 2020, after the first wave, deaths are 77,000.

Similar figures for UK are 128,000 and 88,000.

Germany had the good sense (or luck) to lock down about a week earlier than UK in the first wave. Since then they have done only a little better than the UK.

The above is quite superficial - there are almost certainly differences in data collection and testing methodologies which means figures are not easily comparable.

The success of some countries in managing the pandemic could provide some sound lessons, but German covid performance is good(ish), not impressive. Their contact track and trace app (for instance) has only about 25% uptake.

We should avoid perpetuating that which is now not true!

 

[Rorschach]

Certainly their healthcare system is far too poor to cope.

India is a poor country, similar GDP to UK with 20x the population.

GDP is not always the best indicator of wealth for a country especially large ones. India is a rich country, richer than the UK, but with a big wealth divide and it chooses not to spend much on healthcare. That's their choice and not one for us to make a moral judgement on.

 

[Jonm]

Total covid deaths in Germany are 86,000. Since end June 2020, after the first wave, deaths are 77,000.

Similar figures for UK are 128,000 and 88,000.

Germany had the good sense (or luck) to lock down about a week earlier than UK in the first wave. Since then they have done only a little better than the UK.

The above is quite superficial - there are almost certainly differences in data collection and testing methodologies which means figures are not easily comparable.

The success of some countries in managing the pandemic could provide some sound lessons, but German covid performance is good(ish), not impressive. Their contact track and trace app (for instance) has only about 25% uptake.

We should avoid perpetuating that which is now not true!

You have not taken account of the difference in population.
Germany 84.01 million, UK 68.13 million

Using your figures,
Total covid deaths in Germany are currently 1023 per million. Since end June 2020, after the first wave, deaths are 916 per million.

Similar figures for UK are 1879 per million and 1291 per million.

In June 2020 death rate in Germany was 107 per million, UK 587 per million. Uk‘s death rate was therefore 450% greater than Germany‘s in June 2020.

Overall Covid death rate in uk is currently 84% greater than Germany and that is still a significant difference.

Of course there are many other factors, the way deaths are measured being one of them. Other factors include different variants, effect on economy, how much money has been borrowed, mental health, children’s education, health service dealing with non Covid cases, uk being an island etc.

I would say that we have a lot to learn from the way Germany handled the first wave, the way they tested and isolated skiers returning from Italy, for example. The fact that in the second wave our death rate was “only” 41% greater than Germany does negate how well the did in the first wave compared to comparable countries in Europe.

 

[Rorschach]

Well this was an interesting graph on twitter. Masks, social distancing and T&T working well? Or could it all be nonsense? Bear in mind this is one of the most socially responsible and advanced countries in the whole world!

 

[Petehpkns]

There are quite a few Asian countries which had impressive track and trace due to experience from SARS. Vietnam and South Korea spring to mind.

Outside that, it was pretty key to Germany's response too.

For South Korea it was similar to Singapore I believe. Have visited a few times, mainly Seoul, from the folk I still have contact they simply don’t understand the ‘western’ response early in the pandemic. Vietnam I’ve visited just for leisure, just wary of their stats but that be cynical……

 

[Petehpkns]

It's easier to do T&T when your peak infection rate was 1k a day and only for a few days. I am certain there is some kind of herd immunity going on though, every country that had some exposure to SARS has done much better in terms of SARS2, coincidence? I think not.

Sure on the 1K, just shows how effective a speedy lockdown is.
if you have any data on SARS v SARS2 link would be great, thanks…..

 

[RobinBHM]

GDP is not always the best indicator of wealth for a country especially large ones. India is a rich country, richer than the UK, but with a big wealth divide and it chooses not to spend much on healthcare. That's their choice and not one for us to make a moral judgement on.

GDP is certainly an indicator when GDP per capita is 1/20th of UK

India is a country that has 42% of workers are in agriculture....that means India is still to a significant amount in a pre industrial stage of its development. UK last employed that % in 1700s

 

[Jonm]

Well this was an interesting graph on twitter. Masks, social distancing and T&T working well? Or could it all be nonsense? Bear in mind this is one of the most socially responsible and advanced countries in the whole world!

View attachment 110682

Well that graph shows peaks and troughs just like most of the rest of the world. No-one has claimed that mask wearing stops the spread. It does not show what would have happened without masks.

The maximum value shown on the graph for daily new cases is about 6000 in a population of 126 million. The corresponding figure for uk is is about 59000 new daily cases in a population of 68 million.

In Japan the total Number of cases is 5400 per million. The corresponding figure for uk is 65300 cases per million.

There are no doubt many reasons why Covid infection rates in Japan are 1/12 or 1/20 of ours depending on what you are measuring. Could some of the reasons be masks, social distancing and T&T working well, bearing in mind that this is one of the most socially responsible and advanced countries in the whole world!

 

[Rorschach]

Well that graph shows peaks and troughs just like most of the rest of the world. No-one has claimed that mask wearing stops the spread. It does not show what would have happened without masks.

I am sorry but that is exactly what people are claiming.

 

[Selwyn]

I see the scariant was doing the rounds over the weekend.

Indian Variant on Friday was going to come and do us over, then its been rowed back on vigourously but not enough to threaten the population that if they "don't behave" opening up of lockdown will be delayed.

Its such a manipulative load of old rubbish. A nasty virus is making its way through India and now it is easing off again like virus' do. Don't fall for it people.

And when the lockdown is finished we will see a rise in more colds etc because we have stop / started people mixing

 

[Jonm]

GDP is certainly an indicator when GDP per capita is 1/20th of UK

India is a country that has 42% of workers are in agriculture....that means India is still to a significant amount in a pre industrial stage of its development. UK last employed that % in 1700s

There is certainly a lot of poverty in India but it is an advanced nation, as I posted earlier.
Here is a sky news article dated 30 April which totally surprised me, I knew that India had exported vaccine to us but I had not realised the extent of its vaccine production and huge quantities it has exported. The article has a lot of charts and seems slow to download.

https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19...on-vaccine-export-hurt-other-nations-12290300
A few statements from the article.
“One in five doses being jabbed around the world is made in India.”
“About 30% of doses that are exported to other countries are produced in India”
“when it comes to inoculating its own people against coronavirus,the South Asian nation has barely covered a tenth of its population“

Here is a chart from the Sky article

Looking at this it would appear that the Indian government has not placed early vaccine orders with its own vaccine industry.

I understand that the agreement with AZ is that the Serum Institute of India can produce AZ doses for low- and middle-income countries, including India itself.

The graph as it relates to eu members is misleading, I think that much of the “export” is to the EU which is ordering centrally. I cannot believe that France which manufactures Pfizer is “exporting” all of it.

 

[selectortone]

Overheard in Lidl this morning (and no, I promise I am not making this up) : antivaxxers are now advising each other that they need to wear masks in public to avoid catching stuff off people who have been vaccinated. What a world

 

[Jonm]

Overheard in Lidl this morning (and no, I promise I am not making this up) : antivaxxers are now advising each other that they need to wear masks in public to avoid catching stuff off people who have been vaccinated. What a world

I think that the good thing about this site in general and this post in particular, is that whilst there is disagreement, it is generally not offensive and we do not have any antivaccers or people spouting the type of nonsense as you have heard.

Unless they have some very fancy masks, they do not realise that masks are intended to reduce the risk of the wearer spreading the virus, not from catching anything. Anyway a good outcome, they are wearing masks.

 

[D_W]

For South Korea it was similar to Singapore I believe. Have visited a few times, mainly Seoul, from the folk I still have contact they simply don’t understand the ‘western’ response early in the pandemic. Vietnam I’ve visited just for leisure, just wary of their stats but that be cynical……

I spent an evening at an awards dinner with a fellow from South Korea. As he described it to me, his life is kind of scripted. A couple of nights of the week, he works late (mandatory) in the office. At least two of the other nights (I believe that makes all five), he's required to go to the bar with his work group (as in, his boss takes the team).

He had two young kids, and I asked how he sees the kids, and he said something more or less like "I don't, but I get to buy all of the stuff that they need" and he described sort of a conformist society all the way down to (in his class level, I guess) the social requirement to buy a baby buggy that was $900 US equivalent. There were a lot of things like that.

It sounds like a rough place to live for the successful - constant pressure. It's not hard for me to believe that they would act as a group when required.

I know only of his class/group which is professionals at a level similar to attorneys, so that kind of adherence and work life may not be the case for blue collar employees (literally can't work blue collar employees that many hours or they will physically break down, but there are plenty of law firms here in the US who can prove that at least some folks will work all of their waking hours 7 days a week. )

 

[D_W]

GDP is certainly an indicator when GDP per capita is 1/20th of UK

India is a country that has 42% of workers are in agriculture....that means India is still to a significant amount in a pre industrial stage of its development. UK last employed that % in 1700s

PPP is probably the best starting indicator, but doesn't do a great job of capturing societies that are rural and disorganized where basic economic activity occurs off the record. When a society has low enough wealth that the government doesn't get involved in tracking all of it, that probably sends its own message, though.

An English friend here who tried to avoid going to india as long as possible (worked for a terminal equipment company - like shipping and port equipment) finally ended up on assignment in some remote area there and suggested that we should send our depressed populations there for a week and they'd come back to the united states feeling like life is pretty good.

 

[Selwyn]

Indian cases of Covid peaked on May 6th and now are slowly declining.

Guess who was bang on? I'll give you a clue - it wasn't Robin in his bedroom.

No lockdown there either

Amazing eh? Who would have thought that virus' behave as virus' always have done?

 

[Jonm]

Indian cases of Covid peaked on May 6th and now are slowly declining.

Guess who was bang on? I'll give you a clue - it wasn't Robin in his bedroom.

No lockdown there either

Amazing eh? Who would have thought that virus' behave as virus' always have done?

And what point are you trying to make? Of course viruses peak at some point, if for no other reason than they run out of people to infect. Surely what is relevant is the level that infections peak at and then what happens, do they plateau or fall off a cliff.
I do hope you are correct, they have peaked and the rate falls off a cliff.

Here is a bbc article
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/56987209
here is an extract which shows testing numbers have gone down in the States which are recording a reduction in cases.

Further on down it says

“Gautam Menon, a mathematical modeller and professor of physics and biology, at Ashoka University, near Delhi, says: "Test positivity rates are still quite high, over 20% countrywide.
"So I would certainly think there is no reason yet to believe that India is past its second wave."

I am not sure what the adverse comment about Robin is for, I cannot recall him saying that viruses infection rates do not peak at some point.

 

[Terry - Somerset]

Some other indicators of Indian wealth other than GDP:

• car ownership 30 per 100 - UK is 488
• less than 50% of the population has access to safely managed drinking water
• 1 doctor for every 1457 people. UK is 1 for 360
• TV ownership 65% of households - UK ~99%. (arguable whether this is a benefit for the UK)

India may choose to spend part of its GDP on space, weapons etc. There are wealthy individuals in India, but the lot of the average indian compared to those in western Europe is pretty dire.

 

[RobinBHM]

I am sorry but that is exactly what people are claiming.

Please provide the evidence that "people are claiming masks stop spread"

You won't because there isn't any....you made it up

 

[Selwyn]

Unless they have some very fancy masks, they do not realise that masks are intended to reduce the risk of the wearer spreading the virus, not from catching anything. Anyway a good outcome, they are wearing masks.

Except they don't really do this either.

And what point are you trying to make? Of course viruses peak at some point, if for no other reason than they run out of people to infect. Surely what is relevant is the level that infections peak at and then what happens, do they plateau or fall off a cliff.
I do hope you are correct, they have peaked and the rate falls off a cliff.

Here is a bbc article
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/56987209
here is an extract which shows testing numbers have gone down in the States which are recording a reduction in cases.

View attachment 110738

Further on down it says

“Gautam Menon, a mathematical modeller and professor of physics and biology, at Ashoka University, near Delhi, says: "Test positivity rates are still quite high, over 20% countrywide.
"So I would certainly think there is no reason yet to believe that India is past its second wave."

I am not sure what the adverse comment about Robin is for, I cannot recall him saying that viruses infection rates do not peak at some point.

They won't fall off a cliff. They will slowly decline. Viral curves are well documented. Covid 19 is no different to other coronavirus'.