One-*** efficacy questions

[Blackswanwood]

order of what, though? If you're looking to get an early order in for mutations, do you get to change your order in line for a different formulation?

It would seem sensible that the contract would be negotiated on that basis.

 

[Terry - Somerset]

Getting an order in early is a gamble - but the odds are very attractive.

Cost of 60m jabs at (say) £10 per time is £600m.

Cost of lockdown could be in the region of £15-20bn a month.

£600m is really just an insurance premium - as with cars, houses etc we don't plan to claim but failing to have insurance could be catastrophic.

 

[D_W]

I guess if you're the drug company, you'd want a guarantee of purchase - if you're the UK, what do you do - push for people to get a booster even if there are no variants evading a vaccine in significant numbers?

We have so much data and so much current information that while there are tons of scary stories on the news, if there was an uptick in a variant, we'd know in the states immediately. I'm reminded of how much tracking we're doing as I'm still getting regular requests from the CDC (by text) to click through a few questions under a program they call vsafe. Of course, I take the time to answer these questions as I think the data component of this is enormously important.

Track and trace has been going on functionally here for at least a year from the county level - the county health department has long done it here to make sure that they're aware of the patterns where covid is spreading. What caused it to persist here isn't lack of tracking, but that a large part of the population just didn't care to stop exposing themselves (and they figured out through the school that most of the cases in school weren't contracted there - I'm not sure if any were, even among the high school students). Now that the schools have been back in session in person for a long time, there has been no uptick, especially among the younger kids).

 

[selectortone]

And certain politicians are making good money on vaccines.

Where's your proof of that then? (speaking as a 'lefty' with no love of the present idiots in charge)

 

[Spectric]

I know you intended that as a rhetorical question, but the answer is no the U.K. has never had a lid on Covid. The infection rate has been appallingly high. The deaths even more so. The U.K. has done an appallingly bad job of stopping the spread and keep people alive.

Yes how true, we have had a high infection rate and wiped out a lot of older people in care homes all because the government dithered and was more focused on the economy at the time. Now what has happening, serious problem in India with infections ramping out of control and several variants so what does Borris the blunderer do, stops travel to/from India but gives people a window of opportunity to get back before the restrictions come into force so we now have over 400 new cases of Indian Covid. He should have just stopped travel immediately and anyone who turned up goes straight to quarantine.

 

[Jonm]

Comparison with Thailand is somewhat flawed.

In the UK we have elections every 5 years when the electorate can express their views and change leadership. Mostly true despite the attempts to subvert the democratic process during Brexit.

Thailand has a military coup or crisis with about the same frequency. A constitutional monarchy (in theory), it is effectively a military state. They have the capacity (and willingness) for suppression of opposition in a way which would be untenable in the UK (and most of Western Europe).

I am not defending UK covid performance but there are far more appropriate comparators. Thailand clearly acted early and forcefully in a way which the UK simply would or could not.

In some respects through their actions Thailand may be storing up future problems. I understand that vaccine rollout has covered only 1 or 2% of the population. When, in a few months time, Europe and the US are largely open for business as usual, Thailand will still be locked down.

Your comments are all very valid but our response to the pandemic has been lockdown, close borders face masks etc, the same tools that Thailand has used. Thailand however would seem to have acted more decisively and quickly with far fewer deaths. We have not covered ourselves in glory.
As for vaccine rollout, yes we have done well but our economy is well over five times the size Thailand, they perhaps cannot get the vaccine.

 

[Jonm]

In the UK we have elections every 5 years when the electorate can express their views and change leadership. Mostly true despite the attempts to subvert the democratic process during Brexit.

We had a civil war to sort out that parliament is supreme. Boris got off lightly, the previous person who tried that had his head chopped off.

 

[Jonm]

Yes how true, we have had a high infection rate and wiped out a lot of older people in care homes all because the government dithered and was more focused on the economy at the time. Now what has happening, serious problem in India with infections ramping out of control and several variants so what does Borris the blunderer do, stops travel to/from India but gives people a window of opportunity to get back before the restrictions come into force so we now have over 400 new cases of Indian Covid. He should have just stopped travel immediately and anyone who turned up goes straight to quarantine.

Then we had the “world beating” track and trace system.

 

[Rorschach]

Where's your proof of that then? (speaking as a 'lefty' with no love of the present idiots in charge)

https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4716
https://www.theguardian.com/politic...-if-he-will-profit-from-moderna-covid-vaccine
There is a lot of chattering about politicians in various countries and their links to shares in vaccines companies. It looks iffy at the very least. As I say, treatments would appear to be being ignored in favour of vaccines. I know that prevention is better than cure as the saying goes, but when the disease is not very dangerous, a cure doesn't make money as hardly anyone needs it. Prevention in the form of a vaccine can be much profitable as you can give it to everyone, regardless of need.

 

[Jonm]

Getting an order in early is a gamble - but the odds are very attractive.

Cost of 60m jabs at (say) £10 per time is £600m.

Cost of lockdown could be in the region of £15-20bn a month.

£600m is really just an insurance premium - as with cars, houses etc we don't plan to claim but failing to have insurance could be catastrophic.

The start of this was orders for Phizer boosters but not AZ. I think we have 100million AZ doses on order. So we have sufficient ordered for 33 million with two doses plus booster. Currently 21 million have been vaccinated with AZ so perhaps we have sufficient on order, with later orders being the booster.

Your analogy with insurance policy is good. The difference of course is that if we over order we can transfer the doses to other countries so it should not actually cost us anything, unless we give them to poorer countries.

 

[Rorschach]

I wonder what uptake % they are basing their orders on?

It's going to be interesting to see the uptake when under 40's are offered jabs, even more so when it reaches the under 30's.

 

[selectortone]

There is a lot of chattering about politicians in various countries and their links to shares in vaccines companies. It looks iffy at the very least. As I say, treatments would appear to be being ignored in favour of vaccines. I know that prevention is better than cure as the saying goes, but when the disease is not very dangerous, a cure doesn't make money as hardly anyone needs it. Prevention in the form of a vaccine can be much profitable as you can give it to everyone, regardless of need.

Chatter? Conspiracy theory more like. You really believe a 'cure' for covid-19 is being suppressed so that a vast conspiracy of politicians and vaccine manufacturers can make money out of it? Really?

 

[Chris152]

Maybe political/ economic/ whatever conspiracies can make their way over to the secret forum? This thread's supposed to be an attempt to inform ourselves about *** effectiveness so we can make informed decisions about risk.

 

[Rorschach]

Chatter? Conspiracy theory more like. You really believe a 'cure' for covid-19 is being suppressed so that a vast conspiracy of politicians and vaccine manufacturers can make money out of it? Really?

I am just saying it is what is being talked about and actively supressed by facebook and twitter in the case of invermectin. I don't know how true they are and I not promoting it myself, I am just mentioning it.

What I do know is that for covid there is a lot more money in vaccines than any potential cure/treatment, especially if it's already a commonly available drug. We have a disease that is not serious at all for 99%+ of people that catch it, I mean for between 30-80% of people who catch it don't even know they have it unless they get tested. There is no money in a treatment that will only be used by a few thousand people each year (as I say, especially if it's already a drug on the market). There is however billions to be made in vaccinating tens of millions of people once or twice a year, every year for eternity. Surely you can see that?

 

[Chris152]

You're promoting it, Rorschach. Take it somewhere else.

 

[selectortone]

We have a disease that is not serious at all for 99%+ of people that catch it.

Tell that to the people in India having to burn their relations in the street.

 

[Rorschach]

Tell that to the people in India having to burn their relations in the street.

Is my statement wrong? If 1.6 million people died from just covid in India that is only 0.1% of the population. India is a really big country with a really bad health care system.

 

[Chris152]

It's like watching a car crash in slow motion, as another thread is brought to its knees.

 

[selectortone]

Is my statement wrong? If 1.6 million people died from just covid in India that is only 0.1% of the population. India is a really big country with a really bad health care system.

You really don't see anything at all disquieting about 1.6 million people dying?

 

[selectortone]

What is disquieting is you positing the deaths of 1.6 million people to justify your point. Disgraceful.