Hancock's Half Hour

[Rorschach]

That's quite a perspective on the pandemic, Rorschach. Again, you should write it up but not sure where you'd send it, one of those conspiracy theory sites I guess?

Plenty more important and influential people than me think the same.

 

[Terry - Somerset]

Pre lockdown the transmission rate was 2.5 - 3.0. Herd immunity needed 60-75% of the population to have immunity - ignoring issues about whether immunity is long term, short term or never.

The rate of transmission relates to social interaction. Changes in behaviours, mandated or adopted in the light of improved knowledge, will impact on the percentage required for herd immunity - eg:

- mask wearing
- work from home - reduced commuting and mixing in office
- distancing and procedures for pubs and restaurants
- no large gatherings - sporting, marriages, night clubs etc
- online shopping
- test track and trace
- improving treatment modifying the consequences

If this were to reduce the "natural" transmission rate in the UK to 1.5 - 2.0, herd immunity would kick in between 33-50%.

Population averages are a very crude tool to understand the implications as behaviours will vary in different parts of the community with an increased understanding of risks and consequences - eg: older people will behave differently to younger, hospital and care workers have more exposure to sick people, cities are dynamically different to smaller urban and rural areas etc.

Not sure where this train of thought leaves us - but individually we can use the knowledge and understanding to minimise personal risk. Assuming that everyone else either shares our outlook, or even understands it, is foolish.

 

[Garno]

The same things are being repeated (again) as what was said numerous times over the first 64 pages. Is that how this thread is going to go? every 60 or so pages repeat everything then have a break for a week then start the whole process again.

 

[Rorschach]

The same things are being repeated (again) as what was said numerous times over the first 64 pages. Is that how this thread is going to go? every 60 or so pages repeat everything then have a break for a week then start the whole process again.

Possibly, but with the situation changing all the time it is good to see how our earlier opinions have changed in the face of new evidence. I have changed my position in lots of ways since the beginning, I made some mistakes, but I have also been proved correct at times as well.

 

[Trainee neophyte]

The same things are being repeated (again) as what was said numerous times over the first 64 pages. Is that how this thread is going to go? every 60 or so pages repeat everything then have a break for a week then start the whole process again.

"Progress is impossible without change and those who cannot change their minds cannot change anything." George Bernard Shaw.

That works on all sides of this debate

I think we are about at the tipping point for me changing my mind - by that, I mean in four to six weeks either the virus will be petering out in all the high infection populations, or it won't. This "second wave" second scare tactic will be shown to be nonsense, or possibly real. I am of the opinion that you need to have infected about 20% of the total population to reach herd immunity, and we will be getting there in many countries all at the same time. I will be right, or I will be wrong, and there will be no hiding from it. Until then, I still believe that the economy is more important than "saving just one life", because without an economy everyone's lives will be forfeit. Let's see if I am right - end of August and I will eat my hat or not, depending on the results.

Until then, beware the media claiming a continuation of the initial "wave" is actually the dreaded, mythical "second wave". The pineapples have been known to lie.

 

[Rorschach]

The same things are being repeated (again) as what was said numerous times over the first 64 pages. Is that how this thread is going to go? every 60 or so pages repeat everything then have a break for a week then start the whole process again.

"Progress is impossible without change and those who cannot change their minds cannot change anything." George Bernard Shaw.

That works on all sides of this debate

I think we are about at the tipping point for me changing my mind - by that, I mean in four to six weeks either the virus will be petering out in all the high infection populations, or it won't. This "second wave" second scare tactic will be shown to be nonsense, or possibly real. I am of the opinion that you need to have infected about 20% of the total population to reach herd immunity, and we will be getting there in many countries all at the same time. I will be right, or I will be wrong, and there will be no hiding from it. Until then, I still believe that the economy is more important than "saving just one life", because without an economy everyone's lives will be forfeit. Let's see if I am right - end of August and I will eat my hat or not, depending on the results.

Until then, beware the media claiming a continuation of the initial "wave" is actually the dreaded, mythical "second wave". The pineapples have been known to lie.

I'll be there with you, are we allowed ketchup on our hats?

 

[Trainee neophyte]

I'll be there with you, are we allowed ketchup on our hats?

Only if you make it yourself: this is a hands-on forum, after all.

 

[Rorschach]

Only if you make it yourself: this is a hands-on forum, after all.

Apparently my methods are too dangerous, the ketchup won't be safe to eat :lol:


On a side note, I have been asked to take part in an antibody study. Will be interesting to see the results based on my location and circumstances.

 

[Chris152]

I'll be there with you, are we allowed ketchup on our hats?

Only if you make it yourself: this is a hands-on forum, after all.

NO idea what you're all on about, but it should go well with the egg on your face?

ps I hope it goes without saying I desperately hope I'm wrong about how grim the outlook looks. Very happy to have egg on my face on that one, ketchup on my hat, whatever.

 

[Rorschach]

ps I hope it goes without saying I desperately hope I'm wrong about how grim the outlook looks. Very happy to have egg on my face on that one, ketchup on my hat, whatever.

I hoped I would be wrong on lots of things, unfortunately I wasn't and a lot of people are dead, and the areas I was (more or less) right on, well that also means a lot of people are dead/suffering/will die/will suffer.

This time I am most certainly hoping I am right, and you should be as well, otherwise we are stuffed again and there won't be any lockdown to help (not that I think it did), government already ruled out a second full lockdown, we can't afford it.

 

[MikeG.]

......... I am of the opinion that you need to have infected about 20% of the total population to reach herd immunity........

You're very wrong. The level is normally taken to be 85% plus, depending on the method of transmission. We're in deep do-does if we reach this sort of level without the aid of a vaccine. Hundreds of thousands will have died in us getting there.

 

[SammyQ]

Seconded. One of our drawling dorks (C.P. ) conflated 60% into a devious answer recently and was swiftly slapped down by the medical fraternity.

Sam

 

[Trainee neophyte]

......... I am of the opinion that you need to have infected about 20% of the total population to reach herd immunity........

You're very wrong. The level is normally taken to be 85% plus, depending on the method of transmission. We're in deep do-does if we reach this sort of level without the aid of a vaccine. Hundreds of thousands will have died in us getting there.

You may be right, but there is a body of evidence which is suggesting that a significant (majority) proportion of the population already have immunity because of T-cells, previous exposure to similar coronaviruses, or perhaps just because tens of millions of years of evolution have given us a working defence system. Children are virtually all immune. How? Why? What does this mean?

Either herd immunity means up to 80% of the entire population, or it means 80% of the susceptible population. Two very different things. Occam's razor suggests that this virus will probably behave like all the other viruses. It may be novel, and different, and have weird new, uniquely aggressive behaviour that will kill billions, but so far it looks like it will behave predictably. In other words, the vast majority of people have nothing to fear. https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/is- ... -we-think-

 

[Rorschach]

I have heard figures as low as 20% may be needed for an effective herd immunity.

Anyone else here been asked to take part in the Oxford/ONS study? It's a nice little earner and interesting to do as well.

 

[Droogs]

Rorschach, how do yo respond to this info given your previous whimsy on here

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5Vvi88QT7Hg

 

[Andy Kev.]

As a general aside to this matter, it now looks as if some European countries are a step or two away from a full-blown second wave (something which was originally predicted for autumn/winter).

It cannot be a coincidence that in the previous few weeks many people have rushed like lemmings to beaches and to popular holiday resorts in places like Spain. I do of course understand that many people really look forward to their holidays but I am very surprised that so many people seem not to have thought it a good idea to avoid classical mass tourism hols.

IMO it's fairly certain that the holiday makers will achieve two things: firstly some of them will bring the disease home with them and secondly they will make viral hotspots out of the resorts thus guaranteeing the infection of more holiday makers.

There's also the matter of where local economies seem to depend largely on tourism e.g. Majorca, Malaga etc. You have to feel sorry for the locals who work in these industries but what do we regard as more important: public health or their employment levels? Meanwhile there are "real" economic activities to protect and they have already taken a massive hit.

I don't think that low key holiday making would be such a risk e.g. farmhouse breaks, walking or cycling holidays etc. but is mass tourism really currently acceptable?

In my naivety I would have thought that more people would have had the sense to do without a trip to e.g. Majorca this year.

 

[SammyQ]

Trainee Neofeckwit?

"You may be right, but there is a body of evidence which is suggesting that a significant (majority) proportion of the population already have immunity because of T-cells, previous exposure to similar coronaviruses, or perhaps just because tens of millions of years of evolution have given us a working defence system. Children are virtually all immune. How? Why? What does this mean?"

You obviously have bu66er-all-cubed idea about T cells.

"tens of millions of years of evolution have given us a working defence system." Check out how long Man has been around will you? Tens of thousands might give you a shred of respectability.

And: "Children are virtually all immune." Jasus on a bicycle, what are you on man? Wise up and desist this scatter-gun approach of throwing oddments of contemporary interest into a conflated, inaccurate, plainly-inflammatory-for-no-good-reason, hodge-podge of textual diarrhoea.

Rorschach? Behave yourself.

Sam

 

[Lons]

there is a body of evidence

Are your reading habits really that selective TN or did you miss this bit

it has not yet been peer-reviewed or published in a reputable journal. Moreover, it included a fairly small sample of 200 people.

If you consider that to be evidence then you have a different interpretation of the word than most other people.

 

[RogerS]

As a general aside to this matter, it now looks as if some European countries are a step or two away from a full-blown second wave (something which was originally predicted for autumn/winter).

It cannot be a coincidence that in the previous few weeks many people have rushed like lemmings to beaches and to popular holiday resorts in places like Spain. I do of course understand that many people really look forward to their holidays but I am very surprised that so many people seem not to have thought it a good idea to avoid classical mass tourism hols.

IMO it's fairly certain that the holiday makers will achieve two things: firstly some of them will bring the disease home with them and secondly they will make viral hotspots out of the resorts thus guaranteeing the infection of more holiday makers.

There's also the matter of where local economies seem to depend largely on tourism e.g. Majorca, Malaga etc. You have to feel sorry for the locals who work in these industries but what do we regard as more important: public health or their employment levels? Meanwhile there are "real" economic activities to protect and they have already taken a massive hit.

I don't think that low key holiday making would be such a risk e.g. farmhouse breaks, walking or cycling holidays etc. but is mass tourism really currently acceptable?

In my naivety I would have thought that more people would have had the sense to do without a trip to e.g. Majorca this year.

I'd also include bars, pubs, discos, nightclubs in the same category.

 

[RogerS]

there is a body of evidence

Are your reading habits really that selective TN or did you miss this bit

it has not yet been peer-reviewed or published in a reputable journal. Moreover, it included a fairly small sample of 200 people.

If you consider that to be evidence then you have a different interpretation of the word than most other people.

Perhaps this explains it, Lons ?