Hancock's Half Hour

[Trainee neophyte]

there is a body of evidence

Are your reading habits really that selective TN or did you miss this bit

it has not yet been peer-reviewed or published in a reputable journal. Moreover, it included a fairly small sample of 200 people.

If you consider that to be evidence then you have a different interpretation of the word than most other people.

Too many angry people, being all emotional. I have said my bit, made my prediction. Let's all see what happens. Oh, and the "second wave" in Europe is still the first wave.

 

[SammyQ]

There is nothing so unfixable as the lofty(??) assumption of superiority -and subsequent public debasement - by the inadequate, aping the informed.

Sam

 

[Garno]

I'd also include bars, pubs, discos, nightclubs in the same category.

Do disco's still exist

 

[Rorschach]

Rorschach, how do yo respond to this info given your previous whimsy on here

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5Vvi88QT7Hg

Excess deaths are very high yes, but when all is said and done they won't be outside normal range for a bad winter, given the last 2 years have been very low. I think it will turn out that there are quite a few people who have had an extra year or maybe two longer than would have been expected. At the moment we are trending in a minus figure for excess deaths. I might be wrong, we won't know for at least a year, maybe more.
I am not saying that people aren't dying of C19, they are, but what impact that will have on overall deaths remains to be seen, we had a good flu winter in 19/20, very few deaths, we could see the same for 20/21 as those that would have died of flu have already died of C19.

I remain optimistic, I think while it looks bad now, in the grand scheme of things it will look OK. I would hope that you are all hoping I will be right on this, because if you want me to be wrong then it's you that is the sociopath, not me

 

[Chris152]

'The ONS says daily cases have risen from an estimated 2,800 to 4,200 since last week.'
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53609354

Disturbing, but no surprise, is it?

 

[Trainee neophyte]

Trainee Neofeckwit?

Oh dear.

There is nothing so unfixable as the lofty(??) assumption of superiority -and subsequent public debasement - by the inadequate, aping the informed.

Here's the thing: either I am right, you are right, or it will be somewhere in between. Just because we have different views of what is going on, I don't have an urgent need to heap you with opprobrium, ridicule you and paste snide little quotes which, rather interestingly, could be read either way. I'm not trying to see you off, or scare you into not posting any more. Why do that to me?

[youtube]PlA_EB_alvc[/youtube]

"tens of millions of years of evolution have given us a working defence system." Check out how long Man has been around will you? Tens of thousands might give you a shred of respectability.

Unless we accept the biblical account of devine creation as accurate and true, your ancestors were developing strategies to cope with viruses before they crawled out onto the mud. Or are you too posh to have had single celled animals in your ancestry? "Tens of millions of years" is actually an understatement. Life has been struggling with parasites and diseases from the very beginning, and some of the strategies are very, very old.

And finally, as a general observation to all: if you haven't got anything nice to say, try saying nothing at all. It's making you all look a bit desperate, and a bit too scared of non-conformity. Get a grip, gentlemen. Play the ball, not the man, and have a go at being polite once in a while - it gets you much further in life.

 

[Rorschach]

'The ONS says daily cases have risen from an estimated 2,800 to 4,200 since last week.'
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53609354

Disturbing, but no surprise, is it?

No surprise given how much more testing they are doing and it's more targeted now, and not disturbing to me. I don't care about cases, the more the better, I only care about deaths. Ideal situation is lots of cases, minimal deaths.

 

[Rorschach]

Unless we accept the biblical account of devine creation as accurate and true, your ancestors were developing strategies to cope with viruses before they crawled out onto the mud. Or are you too posh to have had single celled animals in your ancestry? "Tens of millions of years" is actually an understatement. Life has been struggling with parasites and diseases from the very beginning, and some of the strategies are very, very old.

Virus's or virus like organisms were probably around before "life" as we know it. Approx 10% of our DNA is made up from virus fragments.

 

[Chris152]

No surprise given how much more testing they are doing and it's more targeted now, and not disturbing to me. I don't care about cases, the more the better, I only care about deaths. Ideal situation is lots of cases, minimal deaths.

How many more tests were done at the end compared to the beginning of that week?
I really don't understand your conviction that the theories you talk about are correct. They might be, but from everything I see globally increases in cases equates to increases in deaths. There's every chance I'm completely misunderstanding what's going on of course, but you seem to have bought into something wholesale and lost any critical distance in relation to it?

 

[Lons]

there is a body of evidence

Are your reading habits really that selective TN or did you miss this bit

it has not yet been peer-reviewed or published in a reputable journal. Moreover, it included a fairly small sample of 200 people.

If you consider that to be evidence then you have a different interpretation of the word than most other people.

Too many angry people, being all emotional. I have said my bit, made my prediction. Let's all see what happens. Oh, and the "second wave" in Europe is still the first wave.

Which bits of my post above do you interpret as being angry or emotional? You're a very strange individual it seems.

 

[Trainee neophyte]

Which bits of my post above do you interpret as being angry or emotional?

Methinks the lady dost protest too much, but I live In the twilight zone apparently so I may have been misinformed.

You're a very strange individual it seems.

I am more and more being reminded of this:

[youtube]I2yN_HIxLzI[/youtube]

 

[Lons]

As I said TN :lol: :lol: You clearly live in a world detached from reality. Never mind, you appear to be very happy there.

 

[RogerS]

As I said TN :lol: :lol: You clearly live in a world detached from reality. Never mind, you appear to be very happy there.

More a 'menage a deux' methinks...TN and Sorearse...oops ...sorry, Karen. Conjoined in a convivial tryst where reality is but a fleeting figment of the imagination, nay, a tenuous grasp of reality aka wishful thinking.

 

[nev]

As a mod I have the unpleasant task of having to glance through this tripe occasionally.

Please stop with the name calling and personal attacks, just ignore the trolls and wind up merchants, you're just feeding them.

 

[Chris152]

'Paul Hunter, professor in medicine at the University of East Anglia, said it had become clear that there is a link between closing schools and controlling the spread of the virus. “The evidence is clear that schools are important in the spread of Covid-19,” he said. “Our studies show that, across Europe, closing schools was the single factor most strongly associated with drops in infection rates.”'
https://www.theguardian.com/education/2 ... qp8V-LtUu8

Neil Ferguson was on Radio 4 just now, making it clear that evidence suggests older (secondary school) kids transmit the virus as well as adults. He was citing the importance of physical distancing, masks and mitigating measures and cited the possibility of kids being in school part time to allow for these. The government seems still set on all kids returning in a few weeks to full-time, full curriculum. It says this will be safe on account of 'alternative measures' (no distancing, for eg), but as far as I can tell these measures are significantly inferior to those that have been drummed into our minds hitherto.

To my mind, the problem is the decision to make return to school mandatory for all. Secondary schools need to be flexible at this time - if kids can't work from home part time, they should be in school full time; but if kids can work from home part time or even full time, they should have the option to do so. It'd result in less kids in school at any one time, and it (blended learning/ remote learning) would be a system in place ready for when (/if) the virus takes hold again, as it almost certainly will (Ferguson again this morning, but it looks pretty obvious anyway).

 

[RogerS]

Interesting article, Chris. Especially the bit about the inconsistencies in wearing masks in shops but not in schools. The lack of a proper Track'n'Trace system won't help either. No coherent strategy will be in place while we have the Terrible Twins - Hapless and Hopeless - involved.

 

[Rorschach]

I agree that children who can work from home to a level comparable to that of being in school should be free to do so especially if they or their family are in a vulnerable position. However I suspect that is a very small % of children and on balance the vast majority need to get back into school.

 

[doctor Bob]

To my mind, the problem is the decision to make return to school mandatory for all. Secondary schools need to be flexible at this time - if kids can't work from home part time, they should be in school full time; but if kids can work from home part time or even full time, they should have the option to do so. It'd result in less kids in school at any one time, and it (blended learning/ remote learning) would be a system in place ready for when (/if) the virus takes hold again, as it almost certainly will (Ferguson again this morning, but it looks pretty obvious anyway).

Great in principle, the bright kids with active parents would thrive, the less so would be lost from education.

 

[Chris152]

The option to use blended/ remote learning could be monitored, parents complete a form committing to support the kids at home, and teachers keep tabs on the work kids are doing at home (our local was doing that anyway and I think most schools were). A lite version of what parents who home school go through. Those that can't can send their kids in f/t, to a less crowded environment.

Either way, I think there's a pretty good chance they'll shut down again anyway once people start dying again in large numbers, so the schools need to be geared up to provide remote learning if people are really interested in the kids' education. The longer we pretend full-time, full-curriculum can work safely, the less prepared schools will be for the reality of our situation.

 

[Rorschach]

What % of parents do you think will actually be at home to do this? Kids being at school isn't just for the education, it is a form of childcare as well.