Hancock's Half Hour

[Rorschach]

Wondering if anyone has changed their opinion recently? Either side of the argument.

 

[lurker]

Wondering if anyone has changed their opinion recently? Either side of the argument.

No, I still hold the opinion that you are bored and looking for an argument .

 

[Rorschach]

Wondering if anyone has changed their opinion recently? Either side of the argument.

No, I still hold the opinion that you are bored and looking for an argument .

That's the point of this thread isn't it? A discussion (or argument if you prefer).

 

[Lons]

Wondering if anyone has changed their opinion recently? Either side of the argument.

No, I still hold the opinion that you are bored and looking for an argument .

Apparently he's had a few static electricity shocks that "almost" broke his leg, probably explains why his brain is fried as well so maybe it's not the poor chap's fault. :wink:

 

[doctor Bob]

Wondering if anyone has changed their opinion recently? Either side of the argument.

Is there an either side of an arguement, lot of different opinions but I don't think it's between two choices.

I still hold the opinion that man hugging and triple kissing trends have a lot to answer for ..........
I remember in early march attending a meeting of 10-12 and sitting on my tod at the back of the room, people were taking the piss back then, even though social distancing was being encouraged.

 

[Rorschach]

Wondering if anyone has changed their opinion recently? Either side of the argument.

Is there an either side of an arguement, lot of different opinions but I don't think it's between two choices.

Well broadly speaking the people here fall into 2 camps I think, me vs everyone else :lol:

What prompted my post today was the news that we are seeing an uptick in cases in places that had been touted as doing well earlier in the year, whereas those areas that took a hard hit early on are continuing to see numbers decline.

 

[doctor Bob]

What prompted my post today was the news that we are seeing an uptick in cases in places that had been touted as doing well earlier in the year, whereas those areas that took a hard hit early on are continuing to see numbers decline.

I would wait a few weeks before taking it for granted we are declining

 

[Chris152]

What prompted my post today was the news that we are seeing an uptick in cases in places that had been touted as doing well earlier in the year, whereas those areas that took a hard hit early on are continuing to see numbers decline.

I would wait a few weeks before taking it for granted we are declining

Indeed - doesn't seem to be declining in Europe at all, but starting to increase

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53579731

 

[Rorschach]

In some pockets of Europe they are yes, but take them in context and with a bit of background.

Any increase seems a lot when you starting from pretty low numbers. These are only increases in cases, deaths are not climbing as it seems to be spreading asymptomatically among the young. Also all countries are continuing to increase their testing all the time, if you test more, you will find more. That doesn't mean it is spreading, just that we are locating it better.

As long as young people can keep away from vulnerable groups then asymptomatic spread among the young is best thing to happen, it will hasten our journey to herd immunity.

 

[Terry - Somerset]

Complacency rules - deaths will tend to lag cases by 2 - 3 weeks.

In Spain the 7 day rolling average cases have grown from a fairy steady ~ 400 per day up to 7th July to 2060 (7 day average) on 28th July.

It is implausible that this is simply a consequence of greater testing.

Wait two weeks and see what happens to deaths!

 

[Rorschach]

Complacency rules - deaths will tend to lag cases by 2 - 3 weeks.

In Spain the 7 day rolling average cases have grown from a fairy steady ~ 400 per day up to 7th July to 2060 (7 day average) on 28th July.

It is implausible that this is simply a consequence of greater testing.

Wait two weeks and see what happens to deaths!

Yep lets come back in 2-3 weeks and see how it looks. I suspect you won't hear it on the news though. Deaths are so low here they are resorting to just reporting cases to keep the fear going. In Devon we haven't had a death for the whole of July.

 

[Trainee neophyte]

Warning: the following may not comply with government approved narratives - reader discretion advised. This post is not intended as a personal slur or attack on anyone, so please don't get upset.

https://blog.argonautcapital.co.uk/arti ... -lockdown/

"THE BIGGEST FRAUD: PART 1 – THE HOCUS “SCIENCE” BEHIND LOCKDOWN"

Makes you think, doesn't it?

If you are under 30, you have a higher risk of being murdered than dying of the coronavirus. For the under 40's it is on a par with death from vehicle collision. Does this mean that car driving should also be outlawed, for the good of the public? Murder is already outlawed, but the government can't even protect the citizenry from the common cold, let alone evil psychopaths.

The 650,000 reported COVID deaths worldwide are rarely put into the perspective of 33.4 million deaths globally so far this year. Moreover, it was becoming clear that the mortality risk for most of the population from COVID, whilst not zero, was statistically lower or comparable to an average influenza season, road accidents or suicide

Part 2 looks at the vaccine scam: https://blog.argonautcapital.co.uk/arti ... e-swindle/

Finally, I will leave it to to you to decide if the people who wrote these articles are competent, or have an axe to grind. "Do your own due diligence", as they say in investing circles, but note who they get paid to advise.

Edit: from the second article:

Nobel Prize winning biological scientist Michael Levitt had already come to the same conclusion based on a different approach: he predicted that the virus would “burn out” when it had infected 15-20% of the population though based on a pattern predicted by the “Gompertz curve” which indicated that the number of deaths after the peak is roughly double those from before resulting in Levitt accurately predicting the number of Chinese and Swedish deaths months in advance. Levitt has recently bravely predicted that US COVID will “be done in 4 weeks [25 Aug] with a total reported death below 170,000”, compared to 149,000 today.

 

[Chris152]

The thing with the comparisons in the second chart is that unlike other causes, Covid spreads very easily and quickly unless very significant measures are in place to control it. If the 5-8% of people in the UK who have had the virus (ons) equates to 50 000 deaths, the total deaths by the time herd immunity is effective looks far worse than in the chart (putting aside theories that it'll fizzle out by itself before that for whatever reason).

 

[billw]

Jeez. OK the point is that measures taken for COVID are equivalent to measures taken by governments for reducing the likelyhood of other deaths. Whilst driving itself isn't banned, things that ARE banned include driving without a seatbelt on, driving under the influence of alcohol or drugs, driving over a specified speed limit, driving that contravenes the highway code in general, driving whilst using a mobile phone.... and so on. Do people do these things? Yes. Does having the rules generally reduce the mortality rate on the roads? Yes. Do people still die on the roads? Yes. Would those deaths reduce even further if everyone abided by all of the rules? Yes.

The government can hardly stop suicide, nor can it stop murder but merely impose a penalty to try and stop it from occurring because maybe people will think twice about a life behind bars.

Wearing a mask, social distancing, quarantining after being exposed or potentially exposed - these are things the government can do and whilst it's impossible to absolutely enforce it unless we become slightly more authoritarian (something I actually believe would be a good idea, akin to Singapore rather than China obviously) at least attempting to mitigate the effects of a pandemic must surely be seen as a positive and not "interference with my human rights".

Your point about murder rates under 30 is also misleading. You can't spread being murdered, but you can carry the virus and transmit it to those who may be more susceptible to being a statistic in a mortuary. Use of this type of argument is very much an effect of being in a dignity culture, i.e. you care only about what you think of yourself, not what others think of you.

 

[Rorschach]

The thing with the comparisons in the second chart is that unlike other causes, Covid spreads very easily and quickly unless very significant measures are in place to control it. If the 5-8% of people in the UK who have had the virus (ons) equates to 50 000 deaths, the total deaths by the time herd immunity is effective looks far worse than in the chart (putting aside theories that it'll fizzle out by itself before that for whatever reason).

The problem with that statement is that the evidence points to it being on the decline before those measures were introduced (the peak of deaths was too soon after the start of lockdown). This is in spite of the fact that patients were being moved into care homes, artificially spreading the virus and causing a higher death rate. Sweden did the same thing and has similarly paid the price of a high death toll, but it's figures follow the same curve as ours with no lockdown enforced.

 

[Chris152]

You clearly need to write the outcomes of your research to all those governments in the developed world who have taken and continue to take significant measures to control the virus, Rorschach. Can't think why they continue to do so given your argument.

 

[Rorschach]

You clearly need to write the outcomes of your research to all those governments in the developed world who have taken and continue to take significant measures to control the virus, Rorschach. Can't think why they continue to do so given your argument.

Fear of being blamed and having painted themselves into a corner they can't back out. Nothing new in politics.

 

[Chris152]

And trashing their economies in the process? Sounds a tad unlikely to me.

 

[Rorschach]

And trashing their economies in the process? Sounds a tad unlikely to me.

Why? It's not their personal money is it? Saving face is always more important to a politician.

 

[Chris152]

That's quite a perspective on the pandemic, Rorschach. Again, you should write it up but not sure where you'd send it, one of those conspiracy theory sites I guess?