Hancock's Half Hour

[Lons]

You DO realise you've just sent all our vegans and vegetarians off screaming to the Vomitorium

I'm a long way from ever becoming vegetarian but it still made me feel sick. I am however squeamish at the sight of blood, especially if it's my own. :wink:

 

[RogerS]

....
'How is R calculated?....

A spokesman for Public Health England said that...

"We first look at the horoscope charts to see if Venus is rising or not. Then we throw the runes onto a witches grave and read the signs there. Next we take a look at CCTV across the country to see how many idiots are not maintaining any sort of social distancing. We check Cummings location history to see where else he's been wriggling to.

Finally we ask Hancock for his well-proven insight"

 

[Rorschach]

Also, I see the UK govt seems to be going ahead with its plans to reopen schools and now shops imminently. In the pm's green light speech on easing of lockdown measures, he said these steps were contingent on the R rate staying low enough to do so.
Ok. But in the absence of widespread testing in the UK, how do we know what the R rate is now or next week? I took a look at the bbc website and it says this:

'How is R calculated?
You cannot capture the moment people are infected; instead scientists work backwards.
Using data - such as the number of people dying, admitted to hospital or testing positive for the virus - allows you to estimate how easily the virus is spreading.
Generally this gives a picture of what the R number was two to three weeks ago. Regular testing of households should soon give a more timely estimate'.

So we'll find out 2 or 3 weeks after kids go back into school etc how rapidly the virus was spreading at that time? Hmmm

Watch the video I just posted, this might give you a better insight as to why the government is lifting lockdown in this manner.

 

[Chris152]

Another fascinating video that is definitely worth watching.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DKh6kJ-RSMI

I only got 12 mins in coz I'm lazy, but wonder why, if the virus was spreading so widely for a month before people hitherto understood, it waited so long to suddenly start killing people so rapidly - surely an indication that fits Ferguson's model better?
I guess the theory sounds possible but if its wrong and we acted accordingly there'd be many more deaths?

 

[Lons]

Whether DC's trip to Durham was necessary is moot, but no one in their right mind can believe he drove a thirty mile trip to a beauty spot on his wife's birthday to "test his eyesight". How bloody stupid does he think people are? As a friend said on Sunday - I'll do as I wish, now - if they don't prosecute DC they won't dare prosecute anyone else.

I doubt any reasonable person would see that trip as necessary and he was a di*ckhead trying that feeble excuse when he should had said it was his wife's birthday, they fancied a run out but while they didn't come in to contact with anyone it was the wrong thing to do so sorry!
The trip to Durham is however a different matter and people with young children will know that when the possible welfare of their young child is at risk the paternal instinct in most normal people kicks in and overrides other logical feelings, mothers especially who can get pretty hysterical and as I said before given similar circumstances I might well have driven 250 miles and sod the consequences I just wouldn't have excused it later. Remember if facts are correct he put no-one else at risk!

Your friend is the stupid one Phil as he's risking himself and others on that basis especially when if Cummins will be prosecuted hasn't been decided yet as the police are investigating. I suggest you show him that video that TN posted and ask what he thinks about the media deliberately breaking the law while harassing the guy.

If you look at the fines issued you'll see that the vast majority were issued for unreasonable behaviour such as group gatherings, refusal to accept advice to go home and many repeat offenders in other words deliberate very risky events exacerbated by sunny weather and linked to that it's interesting to note that more than 2/3rds were issued to under 34 year olds.

There's a lot of underlying politics involved now along with the usual jealousy from those who don't have the wherewithal do do the same. Some of those screaming for blood are the same people who have been in and out of friends and neighbours houses and meeting for drink and barbecues during lockdown certainly in my area.

 

[Rorschach]

Another fascinating video that is definitely worth watching.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DKh6kJ-RSMI

I only got 12 mins in coz I'm lazy, but wonder why, if the virus was spreading so widely for a month before people hitherto understood, it waited so long to suddenly start killing people so rapidly - surely an indication that fits Ferguson's model better?
I guess the theory sounds possible but if its wrong and we acted accordingly there'd be many more deaths?

You need to watch the whole video.

There are lots of explanations for the higher rate of deaths, firstly we don't know exactly when C19 deaths started so there were very likely low deaths slowly building. Then a big factor that once we started to see problems, old people were taken out of hospital and put into the community and care homes. The virus affects certain vulnerable populations, when it was circulating before it is likely it was spreading to those with either a good immune response or near natural immunity, so while it was spreading it wasn't causing significant harm and those people were only spreading it to a few people. Once the virus gets a hold in a vulnerable community it spreads rapidly as not only can it easily infect people but the symptoms it causes produce lots more virus to be spread around and cause more people to be involved in caring for that person. People who are involved in that care (nurses, doctors, care workers, paramedics etc) are also the people who will come into contact with other vulnerable people.
Once the virus gets a foothold then the deaths start to rise rapidly and it's quite likely we could have made it worse (in the short term).

 

[Chris152]

Once the virus gets a foothold then the deaths start to rise rapidly and it's quite likely we could have made it worse (in the short term).

But according to her account the virus got a foothold much earlier, across wide sections of society, yet still wasn't killing people in huge numbers til a point that fits Ferguson's model. Rapid increase in deaths in care homes came still later, didn't it?
Point taken about watching the whole thing, I shan't be submitting my review to the Lancet just yet.

 

[Phil Pascoe]

My friend was being facetious, I'd think.
You should have listened to Nick Ferrari on LBC questioning an extremely tongue tied Michael Gove about DC's joy ride - it'll be interesting to see how you get out of this ....... it'll be fun! :lol:

 

[rafezetter]

The squeal. What have you done with the squeal?

The memories of killing a pig before the days of a freezer.

Being chastised by the local slaughterer for not catching the squeal.
The burning off the bristles with boltons of straw, and scrubbing off the ash.

Several days of eating all the offal up to save wasting it, (days on farm with no electricity and just a cold dairy slab and evaporating water to keep it cool).

A day (it seemed like anyway) working the yard pump washing out Chitterlings, several days of the smell of rendering fat as it was turned into pure white 'rosemary' Lard.
Mixing the Blood, pearl barley, chunks of fat etc. to make the black puddings.

Being allowed to put the cooked head meat into basins and covered with a saucer and spare weights to make the Brawn.

Making sure the cats and dogs were kept out of dairy room where the sides and hams were being dry salted, wondering where salt Peter came from that was rubbed around the ham bones.

Oh, and playing football with the inflated bladder.

You DO realise you've just sent all our vegans and vegetarians off screaming to the Vomitorium

not just the vegans - that made me, a purebred carnivore feel a little "off", and I made the mistake of googling "chitterlings" - thanks for that.

 

[Rorschach]

Once the virus gets a foothold then the deaths start to rise rapidly and it's quite likely we could have made it worse (in the short term).

But according to her account the virus got a foothold much earlier, across wide sections of society, yet still wasn't killing people in huge numbers til a point that fits Ferguson's model. Rapid increase in deaths in care homes came still later, didn't it?
Point taken about watching the whole thing, I shan't be submitting my review to the Lancet just yet.

I took it as spreading around the country at least a month or so earlier than we thought it was. Not taking a foothold in vulnerable sectors until later though and then we started testing so we started recording the deaths.
Remember that the most vulnerable to this are also the people least likely to be exposed to it at first.

Also this spreading is predicated on our knowledge of the disease and it's mechanisms which are still being understood. Fergusons model makes more sense if the disease spreads easily, has a high mortality and turns everyone infected into a spreader, Guptas model makes more sense if the disease is not as easily spread amongst the healthy and has lower mortality. Evidence seems to be going that way especially as children, traditionally the main spreaders of disease, are looking more and more likely to be essentially immune or at the very least incapable of spreading it. We certainly know that the mortality rate amongst children/teens is essentially nil which would slow the initial spread.

 

[lurker]

When the DC issues first started, I said to her majesty “it’s inconceivable that he could not find help in the event of an emergency, closer to home “.
However having seen a bit more of him since, I appreciate why I was wrong.

 

[Droogs]

Regarding cummings, are people aware that he has a sister in law who lives less than 10 miles away from his home in London in a straight line. When not get them to take the kid?

 

[Rorschach]

Regarding cummings, are people aware that he has a sister in law who lives less than 10 miles away from his home in London in a straight line. When not get them to take the kid?

I wouldn't trust my sister in law to look after my child, even in an emergency.

Assuming he was on good terms with his SIL, what about her family, are they vulnerable, is she already under a lot of pressure, maybe his chid doesn't get on with her? I understand is autistic, the SIL might not be able to cope with that.

He was offered an empty property where they could isolate and there were several single, low risk family members who offered to come take care of them. One of which as his niece I believe, it could very well be that the niece was his autistic child's favourite person and would be much calmer and happier being taken care of by her than by the SIL who they might not get along with. Bear in mind the media know where the SIL lives but didn't know about the Durham property, something else to consider when you are firmly in the public eye.

At the end of the day we don't know the private family dynamics going on and exactly why he thought that solution was the best at the time. The law however allowed him to make that decision so he did. Were I in a similar situation I would do whatever I needed to do, regardless of the law or the potential of fines/prosecution.

As a family we have done several things that are not strictly allowed/legal or are open to our interpretation. I don't regret a single one of them and would gladly plead my case in a court if needed. I won't judge others for doing the same.

 

[Lons]

My friend was being facetious, I'd think.
You should have listened to Nick Ferrari on LBC questioning an extremely tongue tied Michael Gove about DC's joy ride - it'll be interesting to see how you get out of this ....... it'll be fun! :lol:

You didn't say your friend was being facetious Phil so it was reasonable to assume he meant what he said and it seems you don't know either.
If your last sentence was aimed at me then it's pointed in the wrong direction as I have no intention of defending DC as imo he's an arrogant d*ckhead and I've said so. My point was that I may well have done a similar thing given the circumstances as I've seen my missus in panic mode when it comes to the kids I just wouldn't have lied about it, I certainly would not have gone on a jolly to BC though and my comment about the media is valid, they act like animals blatantly breaking the law while pointing fingers at others.

Have you ever met a politician who doesn't lie or at least bend the truth or avoid the question? I haven't and though Cummins isn't a politician he's near enough. Journalists of course don't lie or bend the truth to get a scoop. :roll:

 

[lurker]

Regarding cummings, are people aware that he has a sister in law who lives less than 10 miles away from his home in London in a straight line. When not get them to take the kid?

Or... his mate Michael Gove and his wife Sarah Vain.

 

[Phil Pascoe]

My friend was being facetious, I'd think.
You should have listened to Nick Ferrari on LBC questioning an extremely tongue tied Michael Gove about DC's joy ride - it'll be interesting to see how you get out of this ....... it'll be fun! :lol:

You didn't say your friend was being facetious Phil so it was reasonable to assume he meant what he said and it seems you don't know either.
If your last sentence was aimed at me then it's pointed in the wrong direction ...

He's a perfectly intelligent bloke, so I assume he was being facetious - but I wouldn't really blame him if he wasn't. If the people who write the laws/regulations/guidance think them so unimportant they are prepared to do the the opposite we can't really blame others for doing the same.
Sorry, no, the last sentence wasn't specifically aimed at you, it was badly worded. It was fun to listen to Gove making himself look a total twunt, though.

 

[Chris152]

My friend was being facetious, I'd think.
You should have listened to Nick Ferrari on LBC questioning an extremely tongue tied Michael Gove about DC's joy ride - it'll be interesting to see how you get out of this ....... it'll be fun! :lol:

You didn't say your friend was being facetious Phil so it was reasonable to assume he meant what he said and it seems you don't know either.
If your last sentence was aimed at me then it's pointed in the wrong direction ...

He's a perfectly intelligent bloke, so I assume he was being facetious - but I wouldn't really blame him if he wasn't. If the people who write the laws/regulations/guidance think them so unimportant they are prepared to do the the opposite we can't really blame others for doing the same.
Sorry, no, the last sentence wasn't specifically aimed at you, it was badly worded. It was fun to listen to Gove making himself look a total twunt, though.

Actually Phil your wording was close to the original:
https://www.lbc.co.uk/radio/presenters/ ... -baranard/
'What's the right way of putting it?' Well, Michael, your fabricating this particular little bit of the puzzle so that's entirely up to you...

 

[Garno]

One thing seems apparent, inspite of all the deaths covid has caused 1 man seems to of done more harm to the country and the world, instead of working to find a way out of this mess people seem content to concentrate on getting a man sacked from his job. Not a single one of you will gain anything from it, trying to find a workaround for covid you will all gain from it.

Dr Bob mentioned on a previous thread that one of his fitters did some work in an office block where people were working whilst being fulough, lets get that fitters name and start a campaign to have him never work again, what about the people in that office on fulough lets get them all sacked, after all they are costing the tax payers money. All the people caught attending parties lets get them sacked as well not to mention all those hundreds of people who attended Matlock bath. I would wager that every single one of us knows someone who has bent the lock down rules to how they understand them, should we also try and get those people sacked? How about the people standing too close in a queue as they pose a greater risk to you and I than DC ever has been.

Some of you would not be happy until you see DC swinging from the gallows and even then no doubt you would moan that the rope was not as rough as you would like, that would then be followed by everyone suddenly being an expert on ropes. I am absolutely horrified at the way the media has handled the whole DC debacle but I am even more shocked at the mob mentality that has followed, you are happy to attack someone who has never been any kind of a threat to you yet turn a blind eye to those who have been.

I am still on an enforced lockdown, I am one of the 1.5m people who got the letter from the government. I understand that when your life is not threatened you look at things differently to how I look at them. I look at what harm can someones actions do to me, I ask myself has that person and what that person is doing put my life at risk and I can honestly say that what DC did would put him very low down on the list, the list would contain tens of thousands if not hundreds of thousands of names who have done more harm than him.

Try and put things into context and start thinking of what happens next and what you will do next instead of trying to stay with the mob and the flaming torches.

RANT OVER
.

 

[Rorschach]

Bloody well said Garno!

 

[RogerS]

Garno, you make some valid observations but the one critical factor that you've overlooked is not whether what he did was right or wrong, legal or illegal, whether he should be sacked or not...all of these matter not one jot. What matters is how his actions are perceived by the general public. We are being asked to carry out a certain way of life for the moment, lockdown etc. But when we see someone in his position doing whatever he wants and not perceived to be 'obeying' the same 'rules' as the rest of us, then it is human nature to say 'Damn that...if he can do that then so can I'.

And therein lies the danger. You only have to look at what happened in the last few days at Weston Hospital to see just how easy things can go pear-shaped quite quickly.