Hancock's Half Hour

[woodhutt]

A lot of countries have done better than us.....so far. But how will these countries open up again?

New Zealand is widely touted as having done well, I agree they did, but they also started from a far better position than we did and they have managed to contain the virus incredibly well. But what now? How does New Zealand open up again? As soon as they do they will get new infections and start the process all over again, they are effectively a quarantined country.

We did start from a better position - because we started early. At the beginning of March we were already in a Level 1 (lowest) regime which included such things as self-isolation for overseas arrivals, no unnecessary travel, work from home where possible, social distancing etc. The lock-down levels incrementally increased as it became clear that the virus had gained a foothold when we then moved into the highest Level 4 (total lock-down) on March 25th. The lock-down regime requirements were clearly laid out in a circular to every household describing the four levels of restrictions which was also backed up by a clear media campaign. Our biggest advantage however seems to have been the near 100% support from the population which has led our PM to thank the nation and refer to "Team New Zealand".
NZ has now moved back into a Level 2 situation which means that businesses can re-open (including pubs/restaurants etc.) provided that social distancing and sanitizing measures are observed.
Take my local club for example. Your temperature is checked as you arrive at reception, tables and seating are arranged to observe the required distancing and service is by staff designated to a group of tables. Contact tracing, should it be necessary, is simple as everyone swipes their membership card on arrival and so the date and time of their visit is logged.
As of today, we have had no further cases and it has been more than two weeks since we had a death from the virus (21 so far). Admittedly, we are only in day 3 of the eased restrictions so it is too early to predict the outcome.
NZ's decision to "go hard and go fast" coupled with its clear and concise instructions at all levels and the co-operation of the public seems to have paid dividends.
Sadly, the confusion and indecision displayed by other countries has cost them dearly.
Pete

 

[Rorschach]

Yep you have done well in NZ Pete, and an early start with very few cases to begin certainly helped, it was too late in the UK before we even knew what was happening really.
I am glad that you have seen very few deaths, but the question remains, what now? How will NZ survive long term? You are an isolated country with little chance of re-opening. 20% of your economy is tourism and you can't let anyone into the country.
Things might look good now but you are staring down the barrel of a serious recession and I am absolutely certain you will see more deaths, probably thousands more in the next few years.

 

[Droogs]

i think youngsters should be looking at jobs based in energy and electricery based industries. Like BEV but also for all the infrastructure needs that will go along with the change in logistics transport to come. I have seen reports of people when asked about getting a new vehicle once finances have recovered enough and most appear to be saying it will not be ICE cars they get and motive appears to be the cleaner air since lockdown. All hearsay but sounds logical. After all the creaping rumor is that BEV production costs are going to breack below the $100 per KwH by next year and that means electric will be cheaper to produce than ICE. so the me the future of secure work appears to be based in infrustructure based on these technologies.

 

[doctor Bob]

I wonder how far the economic damage has to go before enough people whose long term health was never threatened by the virus, start to realise that their lifestyles and homes are now seriously threatened, if life doesn't return to some sort of normal soon.

If we ever get normal back I sincerely hope we ditch cheek kissing and man hugs, gives me the heebygeebies everytime I'm expected to do this ............... hello or a handshake for me, however I suspect handshakes are a thing of the past.

 

[Trainee neophyte]

I think you have seriously under estimated the impact of this recession, the worlds governments have seriously made a monumental balls up of all this. The youth of today will face long term economic devastation. Furloughed employees are generally loving it yet one in 4 is effectively unemployed.

I agree with everything you said, except that I am underestimating it. This isn't a recession - we had started that before Christmas - this is going to be a ten year depression. First comes the asset deflation, bankruptcy, loan default etc, and then comes the galloping inflation when our masters panic and print to infinity. If we are really, really lucky, we will get stagflation, where everyone's income goes down, but everything you buy goes up.

So, trying to think positively, what would people's advice be to a capable youngster whose career choices are still wide open?

I would humbly suggest that he forges his own path. University is mostly just buying the right to an occupation - currently far too expensive for the projected (if any) returns. I would also suggest that you think about the likely future before signing him up to the forces - the best way out of a depression is by having a massive capital destruction event, also known as "a war". China is pretty confident that they will be attacked soon: "Peace behind me, war ahead". Interesting that only The Sun, of all the mainstream media ran with it, that I can see: https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/6988385/c ... -conflict/

If china won't play, there is the perennial Russian war opportunity. USA is withdrawing from yet more nuclear non-proliferation deals, and threatening everyone and his dog around the world. I, personally, wouldn't sign up for anything military at the moment. Far too likely to be used as a human tripwire to create a conflict out of nothing.

So job wise, do something that people MUST have. Food, shelter, (not clothing!), healthcare. Or become self-sufficient, so you don't rely on the system. A good piece of advice I once heard is to become a farmer: you will learn mechanics, plumbing, building, electrics, and how to break machinery by looking at it.

 

[Rorschach]

I wonder how far the economic damage has to go before enough people whose long term health was never threatened by the virus, start to realise that their lifestyles and homes are now seriously threatened, if life doesn't return to some sort of normal soon.

I worry it will start a new class and age war as the young working class realise that the middle class metropolitan elite whipped up the panic in order to keep the oiks in check and the older ones "safe".

Once the young realise that they aren't to look too favourably on how they have been treated.

The pensioners that survive this might find their comfy perks and triple lock going away pretty quick once a political party realises they have a new group to appeal to.

 

[RogerS]

...................... and lockdown and travel restrictions are guarantee to gut the world economy for a decade.

I think you have seriously under estimated the impact of this recession, the worlds governments have seriously made a monumental balls up of all this. .....

I'm curious, Bob. If you had been PM what would you have done differently ?

 

[RogerS]

....
Sadly, the confusion and indecision displayed by other countries has cost them dearly.
Pete

Thank you Pete for confirming what I've been saying all along. We dithered and have been riding the whirlwind as a result.

As for the future ? Anyone suggesting that Covid is 'just like the flu' is talking out of their rear.
For starters, mortality for Covid-19 3-4%. For seasonal flu 0.1%...source: WHO

 

[Rorschach]

As for the future ? Anyone suggesting that Covid is 'just like the flu' is talking out of their rear.
For starters, mortality for Covid-19 3-4%. For seasonal flu 0.1%...source: WHO

You didn't read it properly again :roll: :lol:

 

[doctor Bob]

...................... and lockdown and travel restrictions are guarantee to gut the world economy for a decade.

I think you have seriously under estimated the impact of this recession, the worlds governments have seriously made a monumental balls up of all this. .....

I'm curious, Bob. If you had been PM what would you have done differently ?

In hindsight, sacrificed lives now to save the UK economy, worldwide economic poverty, vast foodbank queues, a whole generation of mass unemployment and as a consequence save more lives later.
USA is already seeing it, furlough is hiding it from us at present.
Of course I may be talking rubbish Roger and the greatest depression ever witnessed may not happen, I sincerely hope so.

 

[doctor Bob]

Anyone suggesting that Covid is 'just like the flu' is talking out of their rear. |

Indeed, who is saying that?

 

[Rorschach]

Anyone suggesting that Covid is 'just like the flu' is talking out of their rear. |

Indeed, who is saying that?

He thinks I said that, I didn't.

It will be interesting to see Rogers response to your last post, I agree with you, but if I had said he would have gone ballistic. I bet you won't get the same treatment.

 

[doctor Bob]

Anyone suggesting that Covid is 'just like the flu' is talking out of their rear. |

Indeed, who is saying that?

He thinks I said that, I didn't.

It will be interesting to see Rogers response to your last post, I agree with you, but if I had said he would have gone ballistic. I bet you won't get the same treatment.

It's a forum, he can say what he wants ........... I'm a big boy.

 

[doctor Bob]

3-4 years time it will be interesting to speak to people who are unemployed and have lost their homes to see if they still think the lockdown was a success. Difficult balancing act.
I don't know the answer, or whether that will be me (unemployed and homeless).
My real hope is my son has a bright and happy future ahead of him, each day of lockdown makes this less and less likely. As I said difficult choices, whose lives are more valuable, generally older people dieing sooner than normal or a generation of young ones living a life of economic poverty. Very difficult decisions.

 

[Rorschach]

It will, I have friends who run a country pub and B&B, they are looking at a very real possibility of not only losing their business but their home as well. They rely on visitors to the village who come for local events, all those events have been cancelled and they have had to close the B&B side until at least the end of this year. No idea when the pub will be able to re-open, it might never. The pub is the only full time business in the village.

 

[doctor Bob]

No idea when the pub will be able to re-open, it might never. The pub is the only full time business in the village.

Exactly the same situation in my village, really sad it was bought by youngsters 2 years ago who spent a lot of money improving it, must be devastating.

 

[Trainee neophyte]

No idea when the pub will be able to re-open, it might never. The pub is the only full time business in the village.

Exactly the same situation in my village, really sad it was bought by youngsters 2 years ago who spent a lot of money improving it, must be devastating.

Could it be a planned demolition? All those productive assets being seized by a tiny minority as they foreclose on nearly everything; the banks will hoover up all the bankrupt businesses, and sell off the assets to their chums for pennies in the pound, because only people with access to the magic money tree will have ready cash to actually buy distressed assets. It happens on a regular cycle anyway - the central banks cause a bubble and then pull the rug, causing an unnecessarily harsh downturn, while all the time claiming "no one could have seen it coming!". This time, however will be something to behold.

Don't forget that some businesses are lobbying hard to keep the lockdown going: nothing like a good disaster to wipe away the competition and leave you in a monopoly position.

 

[Rorschach]

No idea when the pub will be able to re-open, it might never. The pub is the only full time business in the village.

Exactly the same situation in my village, really sad it was bought by youngsters 2 years ago who spent a lot of money improving it, must be devastating.

That must be awful for them as I expect they had planned out a whole life there, a village pub is a hard life but so rewarding to be centre of the community.

The pub in my case is owned by a family, mother and father are the landlords, they own the property outright as a freehouse and all their children work there, the intention being to retire in a few years and the children take over the whole thing. I think they must have had it over 30 years, I am pretty sure one of the kids was born there. CAMRA pub of the year in the past and regular winner of local awards.

We have (extended) family in the pub trade as well, parents run 4 pubs with their children being landlord/manager of one pub each, they are rented premises from breweries as is normal, but I reckon the situation will be fairly dire for them too, must ask them how they are doing, I'll admit I kind of forgot about them as they don't live nearby.

 

[doctor Bob]

No idea when the pub will be able to re-open, it might never. The pub is the only full time business in the village.

Exactly the same situation in my village, really sad it was bought by youngsters 2 years ago who spent a lot of money improving it, must be devastating.

Could it be a planned demolition? All those productive assets being seized by a tiny minority as they foreclose on nearly everything; the banks will hoover up all the bankrupt businesses, and sell off the assets to their chums for pennies in the pound, because only people with access to the magic money tree will have ready cash to actually buy distressed assets. It happens on a regular cycle anyway - the central banks cause a bubble and then pull the rug, causing an unnecessarily harsh downturn, while all the time claiming "no one could have seen it coming!". This time, however will be something to behold.

Don't forget that some businesses are lobbying hard to keep the lockdown going: nothing like a good disaster to wipe away the competition and leave you in a monopoly position.

oh dear oh dear............ no idea what to say to that.

 

[Chippyjoe]

No idea when the pub will be able to re-open, it might never. The pub is the only full time business in the village.

Exactly the same situation in my village, really sad it was bought by youngsters 2 years ago who spent a lot of money improving it, must be devastating.

Could it be a planned demolition? All those productive assets being seized by a tiny minority as they foreclose on nearly everything; the banks will hoover up all the bankrupt businesses, and sell off the assets to their chums for pennies in the pound, because only people with access to the magic money tree will have ready cash to actually buy distressed assets. It happens on a regular cycle anyway - the central banks cause a bubble and then pull the rug, causing an unnecessarily harsh downturn, while all the time claiming "no one could have seen it coming!". This time, however will be something to behold.

Don't forget that some businesses are lobbying hard to keep the lockdown going: nothing like a good disaster to wipe away the competition and leave you in a monopoly position.

Oh dear oh dear, what a thing to say.