Facemasks

[lurker]

To suggest that epidemiologists and virologists know little does them a gross disservice .
Only difference is scientists see no failing in declaring they don’t know something as they deal in hard facts. Whereas a politician will happily state his opinion as a hard fact.

Any disease follows a rise and then a fall.
There will be a humped graph of time vs deaths.
All that is unknown is the length and height of the hump.

There are known unknowns and that’s the only reason they appear to be unsure.

 

[Chris152]

To suggest that epidemiologists and virologists know little does them a gross disservice .

My guess is they know lots about epidemiology and virology, and possibly about how to contain or control a virus, but I wouldn't expect them to know how to run a country - which was my point. Recognising they don't know that would mean they're disinclined to override or contradict govt's advice (tho one did contradict Johnson's thoughts on hand-shaking at lunchtime)? Maybe some do know how to run the country - I don't know, I don't think I've met one.

 

[lurker]

If you have studied for a proper degree that requires some hard work rather than someone with a natural ability with languages and a degree in classics , then I would bet they would make a better job of running the country than Boris

The problem with most politicians is they all have some noddy degree but they don’t know what they don’t know ( which is basically everything worth bothering about) but they think they do.
They do at least have the self awareness to know that they are too thick to amount to anything and so enter politics.

 

[Fitzroy]

I’ve long thought the desire to enter politics should automatically disqualify one from entering politics.

F.

 

[AES]

Agree with that 110% Fitzroy.

 

[RogerS]

My concern is that, while they don't really know what to do.....

To be fair, not all the medical fraternity, scientists etc are in accord with each other as to how things are going to pan out, what's best etc.

 

[Chris152]

My concern is that, while they don't really know what to do.....

To be fair, not all the medical fraternity, scientists etc are in accord with each other as to how things are going to pan out, what's best etc.

I'm sure that's true - new ground for everyone.

Just listened to the summaries of today's plans. Given that everyone seems to agree it's highly likely that numbers of people testing positive will increase significantly, how come there's no advice at this stage to avoid situations where they could be exposed to the virus unless absolutely necessary? Seems obvious, but how come govt isn't advising that?
Taking the bus to the cinema? Go for a walk in the fresh air instead. Or isolate yourself in the workshop and practice your dovetails.

 

[John Brown]

Agree with that 110% Fitzroy.

Which is something an epidemiologist should never say...

 

[AES]

Just as well I'm not one then

 

[MIGNAL]

There's not been many cases in Africa. That could be down to low levels of testing or perhaps the climate is having an effect. July can't come quick enough in the UK.! Even then the highest UV index is a relatively low 8.

 

[Trainee neophyte]

Well, this concentrates the thinking: it would appear that all schools in my area will be closed until next Monday (I assume that this will extended, as the closure decision is happening now, at 10:30 pm local time). Someone knows something about someone...

We have cruise ships that visit, and before they arrive here, they will have stopped off in Italy. What could possibly go wrong? Cancelled the carnival, but not football matches. Ferry port connections to Italy open and busy. Cruise ships from Italy full of stout krauts and seppos all plundering the souvenir shops in Ancient Olympia. Central planning at its best. Just heard that the local farmer's markets will also be closed, but not the supermarkets, I assume...

Good job I did my panicking a couple of days ago, before all of this.

Edit: now I hear the same for all of UK! Enforced holidays. More woodworking time!

 

[RogerS]

So Italy is closing the schools. Now how does this fit with their society ? Family first. So all these children - who may or may not be infected (and as it happens generally shrug Covid-19 off easily)- are looked after by...who ? Why their grandparents....and what age group does Covid-19 affect most regardless of any pre-conditions ? Yup..

Me ? I'm in that category so I'm thinking...go and get infected...beat the rush.

 

[Trevanion]

I might buy a knapsack sprayer and a few gallons of Dettol. Start cleansing the local area before it has a chance to strike!

 

[Trainee neophyte]

Panic! Cash may spread the coronanvirus!
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/0 ... ld-health/

Ok, I've done some research, and I've found the tried and tested, traditional solution to this problem:

It's local for PhilP, and I seem to remember we have a fully trained stone mason who could turn these out repeatedly - although they may look a bit like rabbits, but it is nearly Easter, so why not?


Just remember to keep your plague stone in your wallet when you go to Tesco's, and all is good.

 

[Richard_C]

I found this interesting, MIT so it's 'proper'.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wnafrAtfMzE

The bit about ventilation systems is worrying. Hard to avoid.

I can see the value of masks to protect other people rather than the wearer.

 

[selectortone]

In the supermarket this lunch time a woman on another checkout was buying, amid a groaning XXL trolley of other multiple buys (complete trays of tinned beans, tomatoes, soup...), a case (16 x 2ltrs) of UHT milk. FFS! ... I pity her poor children eating foul tasting cereal for the next few weeks. Or perhaps she'll just throw it all away after the scare dies down.

Me? a loaf of bread and 1/2 doz eggs.

 

[Chris152]

As we start to move into a new phase this morning...

Mr Johnson: "One of the theories is perhaps you could take it on the chin, take it all in one go and allow the disease to move through the population without really taking as many draconian measures. I think we need to strike a balance."

Prof Whitty (chief medical adviser): "[The] benefits of the delay phase include:
Pushing the peak of cases "further away from the winter pressures on the NHS" so that there was "more capacity to respond"
Buying time to allow the UK to improve its response or develop counter measures such as drugs, vaccines and diagnostics
There may be a seasonal element of the virus - so if the peak was delayed to spring or summer, the "natural rate" of transmission could be lower."
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51749352

I'm with Professor Whitty - the theory offered by Johnson seems deeply silly to me.

 

[lurker]

“Johnson’s theory “ is actually standard epidemiology, no doubt this had been explained to him by the CMA.
Say we were in autumn at this time In the epidemic , then it would make better sense than Prof Whittys, but for the same reason (winter is a bad time for illness).
Clearly coming out of the winter, the latter is the way to go.
But Johnson and his experts are right to consider all options.

 

[Chris152]

Strikes me as incredibly poor leadership - at a time we're all supposed (according to the govt's own plan) to be protecting ourselves and others from the spread of the virus, he goes on national TV and offers up a case for not bothering (whatever he says about 'balance'). Presumably he sees it as preparing the way for less extreme measures that could harm other interests.

 

[RogerS]

Strikes me as incredibly poor leadership - at a time we're all supposed (according to the govt's own plan) to be protecting ourselves and others from the spread of the virus, he goes on national TV and offers up a case for not bothering (whatever he says about 'balance'). Presumably he sees it as preparing the way for less extreme measures that could harm other interests.

I think you're being unfair and applying cognitive dissonance to what BoJo said. I'm no fan of his but if you read his words without prejudice then they do make sense.