Facemasks

[SammyQ]

Ahhhh! Thank you Roger. There are times I'm slow on the uptake.

Gotcha now Blackswanwood; agreed.

Sam

 

[Blackswanwood]

No worries Sam

I'm off now to do some book matched veneering as I think more beautiful jewellery boxes are required to cheer the world up once Covid-19 has passed!

Cheers

 

[Just4Fun]

Bet it all turns out to be another SARS or millennium bug scare though (he says hopefully)

Things are moving very fast and this youtube video is a couple of weeks old but it makes an interesting graphical comparison to Ebola, SARS, MERS and Swine flu. If it is accurate (and no, I haven't checked any of the data) it is daunting.

 

[Jake]

I had a brief look at this the other day: nobody wants to declare a pandemic, despite all the conditions for "pandemic" applying, because they have sold some "Pandemic Bonds", which are very cunning financial instruments. The deal is that you buy the bonds, and if there is no pandemic by the maturity date, you get your money back, plus some interest. However, to make them more exciting they have attached some derivative product to it, so Wall St and friends stand to make / lose significantly more than they invested, should a pandemic occur or not.

https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press ... g-facility
https://www.investmentwatchblog.com/hal ... rivatives/
https://www.mintpressnews.com/wall-stre ... ds/265264/

You really do need to improve your information sources and your ability to discern which are reliable and which are not. One of those links is sensible, the other two are full of false info and conspiracy junk.

 

[RogerS]

Bet it all turns out to be another SARS or millennium bug scare though (he says hopefully)

Things are moving very fast and this youtube video is a couple of weeks old but it makes an interesting graphical comparison to Ebola, SARS, MERS and Swine flu. If it is accurate (and no, I haven't checked any of the data) it is daunting.

It certainly is. Just don't catch it if you are in the USA

https://www.businessinsider.com/how-muc ... ?r=US&IR=T

 

[Trainee neophyte]

I had a brief look at this the other day: nobody wants to declare a pandemic, despite all the conditions for "pandemic" applying, because they have sold some "Pandemic Bonds", which are very cunning financial instruments. The deal is that you buy the bonds, and if there is no pandemic by the maturity date, you get your money back, plus some interest. However, to make them more exciting they have attached some derivative product to it, so Wall St and friends stand to make / lose significantly more than they invested, should a pandemic occur or not.

https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press ... g-facility
https://www.investmentwatchblog.com/hal ... rivatives/
https://www.mintpressnews.com/wall-stre ... ds/265264/

You really do need to improve your information sources and your ability to discern which are reliable and which are not. One of those links is sensible, the other two are full of false info and conspiracy junk.

I will accept that investmentwatchblog can be a bit iffy, and the World Bank are just an insane propaganda outlet, but MintPressNews aren't too bad at all. Less leftist than the Guardian, which is held up as the premier truth around these parts.

I presented a perfectly sensible conspiracy theory, and you are upset that I provided links to sites that have, from time to time, presented conspiracy theories? Where else would you go to get a good conspiracy theory?

Or should I stick with the BBC and their guaranteed bias?

Note: I don't take myself very seriously, so don't feel that you have to, either ;-)

 

[Flynnwood]

Is she lying? (assuming translation is correct)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DU5Vu7X ... e=youtu.be

Note also: It could be false/setup? I don't know.

 

[Trainee neophyte]

Is she lying? (assuming translation is correct)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DU5Vu7X ... e=youtu.be

Note also: It could be false/setup? I don't know.

I don't often do this, mainly because I like to walk on the wild side, but

NTD TV is founded by a group of Chinese-American Falun Gong

(https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/ntd-tv-new-tang-dynasty/)

Firstly there is a concerted anti-China propaganda movement from the western propaganda mill - any chance to belittle and put down the Chinese Communist party will be taken. Secondly, there is a Falun Gong movement, which is semi-political, semi-religious, semi-spiritual, which is banned in China, and completely antithetical to the government. Another similar outlet is Epoch Times. The USA seems to be very happy to have them stiring up trouble. They are fine for news as long as you don't believe a word of what they say about China.

Finally, I have no evidence to confirm or deny any of this - entirely plausible that someone was being overly efficient with the cremation service - just keeping things moving along, as it were. Coming to an emergency military crematorium near you...

[youtube]Jdf5EXo6I68[/youtube]

 

[SammyQ]

Talk about a topic diversion...

 

[Flynnwood]

Bill Gates on TED 2015
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Af6b_wyiwI

And VOX 2015
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9AEMKudv5p0

 

[Jake]

I presented a perfectly sensible conspiracy theory, and you are upset that

I'm not upset, I'm just a bit sorry for you.

 

[Trainee neophyte]

I presented a perfectly sensible conspiracy theory, and you are upset that

I'm not upset, I'm just a bit sorry for you.

Everything so serious :-( Try having some fun.

Whilst we are about it, can you confirm that a) these pandemic bonds actually exist, and b) there will therefore be a financial incentive to not declare a pandemic? Something like half a billion dollars is at stake here, allegedly. Or is it just a conspiracy theory and none of this is true?

 

[RogerS]

Listening to various reports on the news, if they are accurate, then it would seem that our Powers-that-be seem to have lost the plot regarding managing this situation.. No checks of any description on passengers arriving from infected areas, for example. And suggestions of 'sealing a city'...beggars belief.

 

[jeremyduncombe]

I presented a perfectly sensible conspiracy theory, and you are upset that

I'm not upset, I'm just a bit sorry for you.

Everything so serious :-( Try having some fun.

Whilst we are about it, can you confirm that a) these pandemic bonds actually exist, and b) there will therefore be a financial incentive to not declare a pandemic? Something like half a billion dollars is at stake here, allegedly. Or is it just a conspiracy theory and none of this is true?

Yes, they really exist, and they aren’t a scam. An investor buys a pandemic bond from the World Bank - effectively this means they are lending their money to the bank for a set period. The bank pays them a very generous return on their investment. If there is no pandemic, they get all their money back in due course. If a pandemic is declared, they lose the lot. The World Bank then uses the funds to assist poorer countries to fight the pandemic.
There is no financial incentive for the World Bank not to declare a pandemic. They are simply taking the investors’ money and giving it to someone else. The investment returns on these bonds are so ridiculously generous that the bank might actually prefer to declare a pandemic so that they do not have to keep making annual payments to the investors.
The problem with these bonds is that they do not trigger the pandemic clause until 12 weeks after an outbreak of disease starts. That means that very poor countries will already be in the middle of fighting the outbreak, and the money will come too late. With Coronavirus, the bonds can not legally pay out until 23 March.

So as usual, no conspiracy, just an embarrassing mess. The bonds were badly designed because they are far too generous to the investors, and they pay out too late to help the countries most in need.

Now I have done the serious bit, I am with you on conspiracy theories. A good conspiracy brightens up a dull day .... so long as not too many people believe it.

 

[jeremyduncombe]

If you want a really bonkers coronavirus fact, sales of Corona beer have apparently slumped because people are frightened it will give them the disease. If you like Corona ( more of a real ale man myself ), now is the time to stock up on cheap beer.

 

[Jake]

The central flaw in this garbage attempt to delegitimise the World Bank is that the payment trigger is not whether a pandemic is declared. It is a number of deaths in a primary centre, and another number of deaths in a secondary centre. China hit the first, but the second had not yet been hit last time I looked but Iran must be a strong possibiity.

The World Bank has every interest in those triggers being met (its interest and the reason for issuing them being to provide funding to help with a pandemic), but it does not control whether they are met.

That is done by a calculation agent, AIR Worldwide (which does this for all sorts of catastrophe bonds, which are more commonly issued by insurers, so its business is sitting in the middle between financial institutions with interests on one side of a call and financial institutions with interests on the other).

The markets think they will be triggered, as they are trading way down from par.

 

[Blackswanwood]

It's worth adding that these bonds have been around for a few years and were not created as a specific response to Coronavirus. I agree with Jake that there is a design flaw but they are a legitimate means of ensuring support is available to poorer companies.

 

[Jake]

I didn't say there is a design flaw.

 

[Trainee neophyte]

The central flaw in this garbage attempt to delegitimise the World Bank is that the payment trigger is not whether a pandemic is declared. It is a number of deaths in a primary centre, and another number of deaths in a secondary centre. China hit the first, but the second had not yet been hit last time I looked but Iran must be a strong possibiity.

The World Bank has every interest in those triggers being met (its interest and the reason for issuing them being to provide funding to help with a pandemic), but it does not control whether they are met.

That is done by a calculation agent, AIR Worldwide (which does this for all sorts of catastrophe bonds, which are more commonly issued by insurers, so its business is sitting in the middle between financial institutions with interests on one side of a call and financial institutions with interests on the other).

The markets think they will be triggered, as they are trading way down from par.

And that is the very sensible, important piece of the puzzle that I wasn't aware of - I had assumed (hadn't even thought about it, to be honest) that someone like the WHO would be the party responsible for declaring what and when and how, and that it would be as political as it would be rational. Of course, people who buy bonds like to have numbers to work out the risk, so the fact that this will be based on actual numbers of actual cases, as it were, means there is nowhere to hide.

I'm not sure it matters to us as woodworkers, but the terms apparently are:

The two tranches of pandemic bonds represent different risks of contagion. The World Bank offered $225 million worth of Class A debt, which pay out 6.9% annually. The bonds default if pandemic-related deaths reach 2,500 in a single nation with an additional 20 or more deaths confirmed in an overseas country, according to the bank's prospectus.
The Class B bonds have a lower bar for the debt to trigger and accordingly boast a higher interest rate, since holders are assuming more risk. The bonds pay 11.5% annually, but reach default after 250 deaths. The bonds' payout rate scales with the number of additional countries that experience than 20 confirmed deaths. The World Bank issued $95 million worth of the Class B assets.

The coronavirus outbreak has so far killed more than 1,370 people and infected more than 60,000, surpassing SARS in lethality earlier this month. Still, Singapore, Thailand, Japan, and Korea are the only nations currently hosting more than 20 infected individuals

I tried to get this info from the World Bank, but their web page certificate is invalid, so I used this instead: https://markets.businessinsider.com/new ... 06657?op=1

 

[Blackswanwood]

I didn't say there is a design flaw.

Apologies Jake, I was reading and replying whilst on the move which is a bad habit. I was agreeing with Jeremy on the point of when the default takes effect as the practical action to check the spread is needed earlier. I guess coming up with a clear cut parameter that kicks in earlier however is difficult so this in effect catastrophe cover for the World Bank who will have already started providing financial assistance.

I am pretty sure Swiss Re were at the heart of the design when they first issued them.