Electric vehicles

[RogerS]

I wonder what the value of a 10 year old EV will be.

Probably very low because the one thing that we DO know is that these batteries have a finite life. 8-10 years.

 

[Lons]

I bought a Golf EV which actually cost less than a Golf diesel and about the same as the Golf petrol. Those deals are out there.

I was intrigued by that so had a quick look at the current VW pricelist.

Cheapest petrol Golf is listed at £ 21,120
Cheapest diesel ......................£ 22,495

EV ............................................£32,180 ( already includes government discount of £3,500 )

Even the highly specified GTI Perfomance model is only £1000 more than the EV ( that would take care of the cost of a home charging point ).

To me the figures still don't make sense especially as the discounts you can get on diesel and petrol at the minute are, I would suggest higher than you can get on an EV model.

 

[Woody2Shoes]

I wonder what the value of a 10 year old EV will be.

Probably very low because the one thing that we DO know is that these batteries have a finite life. 8-10 years.

I'm unclear how "we" come to "know" this ( :shock: )

 

[Woody2Shoes]

I bought a Golf EV which actually cost less than a Golf diesel and about the same as the Golf petrol. Those deals are out there.

I was intrigued by that so had a quick look at the current VW pricelist.

Cheapest petrol Golf is listed at £ 21,120
Cheapest diesel ......................£ 22,495

EV ............................................£32,180 ( already includes government discount of £3,500 )

Even the highly specified GTI Perfomance model is only £1000 more than the EV ( that would take care of the cost of a home charging point ).

To me the figures still don't make sense especially as the discounts you can get on diesel and petrol at the minute are, I would suggest higher than you can get on an EV model.

As said above, simply comparing ticket prices is not meaningful. It's the cost of ownership over the period of ownership that matters...

 

[RogerS]

......

To me the figures still don't make sense especially as the discounts you can get on diesel and petrol at the minute are, I would suggest higher than you can get on an EV model.

I agree. And if you went into a high-end dealership they'd bite your hand off as they are suffering. As is the rest of the motor trade but even more so.

 

[RogerS]

I wonder what the value of a 10 year old EV will be.

Probably very low because the one thing that we DO know is that these batteries have a finite life. 8-10 years.

I'm unclear how "we" come to "know" this ( :shock: )

Lots of studies out there. Easiest is to look at the length of warranty offered by the car maker.

 

[RogerS]

I bought a Golf EV which actually cost less than a Golf diesel and about the same as the Golf petrol. Those deals are out there.

I was intrigued by that so had a quick look at the current VW pricelist.

Cheapest petrol Golf is listed at £ 21,120
Cheapest diesel ......................£ 22,495

EV ............................................£32,180 ( already includes government discount of £3,500 )

Even the highly specified GTI Perfomance model is only £1000 more than the EV ( that would take care of the cost of a home charging point ).

To me the figures still don't make sense especially as the discounts you can get on diesel and petrol at the minute are, I would suggest higher than you can get on an EV model.

As said above, simply comparing ticket prices is not meaningful. It's the cost of ownership over the period of ownership that matters...

Agreed. The extra cost of financing that extra £10k is not insignificant.

 

[Lons]

As said above, simply comparing ticket prices is not meaningful. It's the cost of ownership over the period of ownership that matters...

It's not meaningless it's part of the equation and all I illustrated was that at list prices there's a big difference. The important bit is that we don't all have the same "period of ownership" expectations and where Geoff for example might be happy to keep a car for 10 years mine is more like 3.

 

[Geoff_S]

I bought a Golf EV which actually cost less than a Golf diesel and about the same as the Golf petrol. Those deals are out there.

I was intrigued by that so had a quick look at the current VW pricelist.

Cheapest petrol Golf is listed at £ 21,120
Cheapest diesel ......................£ 22,495

EV ............................................£32,180 ( already includes government discount of £3,500 )

Even the highly specified GTI Perfomance model is only £1000 more than the EV ( that would take care of the cost of a home charging point ).

To me the figures still don't make sense especially as the discounts you can get on diesel and petrol at the minute are, I would suggest higher than you can get on an EV model.

Last November I was quoted £23,858 for a new Golf EV, and similar figures from other dealerships. The Mk 7 Golf is to be replaced by the Mk 8 Golf but not the EV Golf. It was stock that they were trying to get rid of. So a bit of a deal at that time!

I take your point on the pricing of petrol/diesel Golf, but they are the cheapest, so I compared just above that to get some sort of comparison of standard options etc compared with the e Golf. It's more art than science in that respect.

As for the charger, our situation is that we don't need one. We just plug in at night on a standard 3-pin plug and next morning, fully charged.
The i-Pace sort of thing is of course a different option having more batteries, but it would still take in 100'ish miles of charge on a 3-pin over 12 hours. That's 2.4 kWh charge rate giving 4 miles per kWH, for us anyway.

 

[RogerS]

...
The i-Pace sort of thing is of course a different option having more batteries, but it would still take in 100'ish miles of charge on a 3-pin over 12 hours. That's 2.4 kWh charge rate giving 4 miles per kWH, for us anyway.

Geoff, can you convert that to pence per mile please ?

 

[Lons]

I wasn't questioning your personal costs Geoff there are always deals to be done especially on stock and pre reg vehicles. in fact I quite enjoy the process of extended negotiations with the dealerships and am quite prepared to walk away until I get the deal I want.
It's 20 years since I bought a VW so out of touch but including my wife's I've bought 8 cars and a motorhome in the last 10 years and know that in the current climate it's a **** of a lot easier to extract very hefty discounts off diesel and petrol cars than EV. Certainly when it comes to Minis as I've had the conversations.

 

[Geoff_S]

...
The i-Pace sort of thing is of course a different option having more batteries, but it would still take in 100'ish miles of charge on a 3-pin over 12 hours. That's 2.4 kWh charge rate giving 4 miles per kWH, for us anyway.

Geoff, can you convert that to pence per mile please ?

Sure, we pay 12.83 pence per kWh. In the Golf I can easily get 4.5 miles per kWh, a bit less when it's cold, more when it's warm.

So, 12.83 pence / 4.5 miles = 2.85ppm

Last trip, SW London to Alexandra Palace, a round trip of 56 miles cost £1.60

 

[Geoff_S]

I wasn't questioning your personal costs Geoff there are always deals to be done especially on stock and pre reg vehicles. in fact I quite enjoy the process of extended negotiations with the dealerships and am quite prepared to walk away until I get the deal I want.
It's 20 years since I bought a VW so out of touch but including my wife's I've bought 8 cars and a motorhome in the last 10 years and know that in the current climate it's a **** of a lot easier to extract very hefty discounts off diesel and petrol cars than EV. Certainly when it comes to Minis as I've had the conversations.

That's OK Lons, I didn't think you were

I hate haggling , I actually hate the whole buying process but needs must

 

[Cheshirechappie]

That is partly true. Increased CO2 concentrations will give an initial boost to plant growth, and so do increasing temperatures. However, when average temperatures pass a certain point, a plant’s ability to absorb and use carbon dioxide reduces. If we all accept that increasing atmospheric CO2 ( whether manmade or not ) eventually leads to global warming, we will sooner or later reach a point when plant growth slows sharply and CO2 levels therefore increase ever faster. I don’t know when or whether we will get to that point - but maybe it would be better not to find out the hard way.

That's interesting. Would you be kind enough to provide a link or two, or indicate at what temperature a plant's ability to absorb carbon dioxide reduces, and by how much it's ability to absorb reduces? Does this happen at one or two degrees centigrade above current temperatures (which seems rather improbable, given that most plants grow better in summer conditions than winter ones), or at tens of degrees centigrade above (which even the most alarmist forecasts of global warming fall short of)?

If you want some rather heavy bedtime reading, try this: https://nph.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi ... /nph.15283.

It can be summarised ( very roughly! ) as:

1) A bit of warming probably increases CO2 uptake by many plants;
2) A lot of warming probably reduces CO2 absorption by many plants. Some trees may be able to acclimatise to higher temperatures, but others may not;
3) But ( from this and lots of other studies ) the biggest effect seems to be from increased global temperatures increasing drought risks across large areas of the globe, with consequent reductions in plant growth.

So I can’t quote a temperature rise at which effects will suddenly happen. Some areas are already experiencing more frequent droughts and lower growth, but it is always difficult to pin this directly on climate change. The only thing I can safely say is that rising atmospheric CO2 will not automatically lead to faster plant growth, and may eventually lead to the opposite.

No sign of a drought in my garden right now.

Thanks for the reply. Given the nature of these 'debates' in the past, I wasn't really expecting one!

Here's a passage from page 425 of 'Heaven and Earth' by Ian Plimer:

"During times of ice ages such as 140,000 years ago, the carbon dioxide content of the atmosphere was higher than the pre-industrial revolution figure of 270ppmv [reference to Lorius et al 1990: The ice core record - climate sensitivity and future greenhouse warming, Nature 347 pp 139-145]. It is clear that CO2 is not the only factor that controls air temperature, otherwise we could not have ice age conditions with a high atmospheric CO2 content. The transition to global ice age to global warming at about 250Ma was characterised by huge rises (to 2000ppmv) and falls (to 280ppmv) in the amount of atmospheric CO2 [Montanez et al 2007 - CO2 forced climate and vegetation instability during the Late Paleozoic deglaciation. Science 315 pp87-91]. During this time plant and animal life thrived. If CO2 was not recycled and humans burned all the known fossil fuels on earth, then the atmospheric CO2 content would be 2000ppmv."

I think that both your reference and mine were written by people of knowledge, decency and integrity, but their messages do seem to vary a bit, or our interpretations do, at any rate.

Which just demonstrates how complex and uncertain 'climate science' (as opposed to climate politics) tends to be. It's deeply regrettable that most of our media fail lamentably to look at any depth at climate science, but I suppose that trying to convey complexity is a lot harder than simple dumbed-down soundbites. Either the journalists think we couldn't cope with the complexity, or, more likely, some of journalists can't. It's also deeply regrettable that the science and the politics have become so entangled that separating the two is a nightmare.

I've seen very credible evidence that climate change is predominantly a natural phenomenon, but there are plenty asserting that it's current changes are predominantly anthropogenic.

Where does the truth of all this lie? Damned if I know - but I strongly suspect that the political ramifications are going to cause me inconvenience, curb my freedom to act as I see fit, and cost me a lot of money. Matthew Goodwin, author (with Roger Eatwell) of 'National Populism; The Revolt against Liberal Democracy' has suggested that the next big political argument, after the debates surrounding EU membership, will be about 'environmentalism' and it's ramifications, and I suspect he may be right.

We shall no doubt find out in due course.

 

[Lons]

I hate haggling , I actually hate the whole buying process but needs must

I love it. :lol:
When I bought my last Audi I gave them a price I was prepared to pay and walked away when they refused to get anywhere near it, they chased me for nearly 2 weeks and then I knocked off another £300 as I said there car was depreciating on the forecourt and if it went into the next month would be even more, they gave in and accepted the lowered figure to boot.

My Merc took over a week to negotiate and again the tactics worked but only if you are able to walk away and be prepared to lose the car. My view is that there's always another one and they'll still make money or wouldn't sell it.

The best deal I've done I think was a 3 year old Skoda Citigo with £10k on the clock which I bought last summer specifically to tow behind the motorhome. It was up at £6950 and I offered £5200 but shook hands at £5300. The dealership had 18 similar cars in stock and I got hold of the owner and pushed it hard. When I collected the car he offered me a coffee and dug out the car paperwork to show me that after workshop prep costs he had cleared £1.17 total so including the coffee had made a loss, in fact I got a free voucher for its next MOT so the cost of that is on top.
He did it for cash flow reasons and had nothing to gain by showing me that so I believe it and admit to feeling a bit guilty at the time.

 

[Trainee neophyte]

Yes it does...

The costs include the initial capital, and the costs of continuous operation, fuel, and maintenance as well as the costs of de-commissioning and remediating any environmental damage.

Then I shall shut up!

 

[Droogs]

I would first like to thank Geoff_S for his calculations, very informative but his post along with a lot of others are not taking a few things into account and these are not really technical points that can really have an easily quantifiable financial effect for us at this point. This is due to them having quite big differentials in their size and impact depending on where you are in the world. For some parts, they are trends that are just starting and for others they are having an effect already even before we have the full technology disruption, market re-alignment and eventual switch of technology and transport in general.

For us here on the forum, I think they are something that we are not really aware of and this is, as I see it, because in general we are a bunch of old farts. So, you can guess these points are due to what is generally a generational split in attitudes, aspirations and social interaction.

The following is not set in concrete and are for the most part generalizations of my observations. I will start with economics first;

For us a car has usually been the second largest outlay that we would have economically in our lifetimes and after getting a nice house full of sparkly consumer carp we would then look to get a nice car. (I know there are exceptions). However there does definitely seem to be a marked difference between those roughly over mid-thirties and those below as to that view. Those below that age are it appear consigned to the fact that they will not be able to afford to buy a house until they are much older that we were before they can afford to, unless they inherit. They are also a generation who have grown up knowing nothing about the benefits of saving in general as there has been not real return rate or encouragement to do so. They have in general been enticed with easy credit and low interest rates to spend. It is really alarming how little in savings the average person actually has. They are a generation that has not had to go without or had to save up to get stuff and are bombarded with the ideas that they have inalienable rights that seems to include the right to have whatever they want without necessarily earning it (not a dig or their fault). They are the true consumerist society and everyone wants to be part of it, especially those in the poorer parts of the world as they gain more education and exposure to what the 1st world has to offer.

They are therefore more inclined to use all their income as disposable and not allocate any aside at all. They are for the most part easily to describe as technology junkies and almost fall over themselves to get the latest and greatest tech.

 

[Droogs]

They are therefore more inclined to use all their income as disposable and not allocate any aside at all. They are for the most part easily to describe as technology junkies and almost fall over themselves to get the latest and greatest tech.
Alongside this they are much more imbued with “groupthink” thanks to that tech and social media. They are far more easily influenced in what to think is the right thing to do or say etc. and being basically brought up with social media echo chambers and have very little exposure to other views or possibilities of thought and even have had very few experiences or requirements to “think on the fly” or use critical thinking about things in general. Hence the rise of “social influencer” as an actual job. They are very aware of what is seen as the great movements or social arguments of our time and are much more inclined to voice their opinion as they can do so without consequences online for the most part. Many are very aware and vocal IRL about many things and do sway others by a lot.
We on the other hand tend to think in a much more cynical way and as for the most part don’t live on social media as they do tend to be much more realistic in outlook and in how we approach things. But as a consequence, our world view, attitudes and actions for the most part make it very difficult if not impossible for us foggies to see how so very different their thinking is.
How does this all relate to cars, well having spoken to several family members about cars and aspirations etc., I was very surprised at how different things were even between the small age gap of 12 years from the oldest to youngest I spoke to. This is how things broke down for each of them:

 

[Droogs]

Mid – late 30s – Saving like **** to get deposit for house and drives a cheap 12-year-old diesel Focus. Has a couple of big screen TVs and all the game consoles and PC etc but older versions but new phone. Missus having a kid later this year and they are trying to get into a house before the kid is born. Reckons once house is sorted, they will buy slightly newer used car with space to have family in in around 3-4 years probably something like an old Nissan Leaf but defo not a diesel.
Late 20s to mid 30s – not married but cohabits with girlfriend – Does not think he will ever buy a house unless they inherit some cash. They live quite well don’t really save much other than enough to cover emergency (equivalent to about 5% of income) but do spend it very often and have to start again. Has a leased 3 series. Has all the tech you could want in his rented flat and they go out to gigs, meals at least once a fortnight. He wants to get a better car once he gets a raise or promotion at work and will probably lease or PCP a M3 or similar, keep that until deal is finished and then he hopes to trade it in for a Tesla.
Early 20s just finished uni and once settled in new job is looking to rent a better flat (doubts he will ever buy a home unless he wins lottery) and hopefully next year get a BEV. Has all the latest tech toys including drones and one of those stupid wheelie board things. Very environment aware and has voted green but wants to see fossil cars banned for sale new within the next 5 years and used sales only allowed to pay the deposit on a BEV. Thinks long range travel will be train and haulage probably Hydrogen truck or Tesla semi with 10 years.
Late teens – just started uni - not interested in buying a house or a car she feels she can’t afford the first and the second is pointless as that’s what Uber is for now and when she leaves uni what Robotaxi will be for. Very interested in living in a house that is solar or wind powered expects Amazon to deliver by drone and wants to travel the world on an airship or super-fast train
Sub teen thinks we will be living like star trek and teleport everywhere.
From talking to them there seems to be a definite move to the younger you are the less likely you will want to own a car in the first place and if you do then it will definitely not be an ICE car. I have read articles that seem to support this and that the general trend is that there are less and less people taking driving lessons. So for the established motor industry it seems that their days are numbered not just from a power-train choice but also from a public want/need one as well as the upcoming generations expect to have autonomous clean transport systems in place and it is just the older generation that seem to want to hold on to the status quo. The future may be around 10 to 15 years away but it is absolutely electric

 

[RogerS]

I hate haggling , I actually hate the whole buying process but needs must

I love it. :lol:
When I bought my last Audi I gave them a price I was prepared to pay and walked away when they refused to get anywhere near it, they chased me for nearly 2 weeks and then I knocked off another £300 as I said there car was depreciating on the forecourt and if it went into the next month would be even more, they gave in and accepted the lowered figure to boot......

Classic =D>

When we bought our secondhand S2000. they'd not been out for very long. The local garage in Worcester didn't have any so the nice salesman invited me through to the back office to see what was available in the rest of the dealer network. We sat down in front of the screen and there, against every secondhand car, was the price the garage had paid for it :lol: