Any (post 2008) Economists in the house? - Inflation.

[Jacob]

Labour don’t have the numbers currently to win in 2024
the next real chance is 2028.

Nobody knows. 3 years away, may be less. A week is a long time in politics

Im not sure PR should be a manifesto policy - the UK public May see that as trivial compared to the impending economic crisis.

It is very popular with Labour membership and all minority parties, hence would certainly win votes, depending on how much propaganda the tories would launch as it would be very bad for them.

 

[doctor Bob]

Some thought Labour were going to win last election . I can only imagine their poor little faces on the release of the exit poles. Did John ever eat his hat?

 

[Terry - Somerset]

PR is only an argument worth putting forward whilst in opposition - it is simply a function of the way the maths work in a first past the post system.

20 years ago a similar argument could have been made by the Tories in respect of the Blair government.

Integrity in politics is in large part about sticking with fundamental beliefs irrespective of the immediate consequences. Not cynically flexing a position to gain immediate advantage.

PR was also subject to a referendum only 8 years ago and rejected 68/32. Scottish independence was 55/45 and billed as a once in a generation opportunity (although Mrs Sturgeon doesn't think so). Brexit happened on the back of 52/48.

The PR debate is dead and should remain so for at least 30 years, not regurgitated as if it suddenly now has overwhelming justification every time it produces a result you don't like.

 

[Jacob]

..

20 years ago a similar argument could have been made by the Tories in respect of the Blair government.

......

The PR debate is dead and should remain so for at least 30 years, not regurgitated as if it suddenly now has overwhelming justification every time it produces a result you don't like.

it's about democracy not party politics. It would favour Labour perhaps at the moment but that could change. The main thing is that it would favour the minority parties and give them seats more proportional to the national vote.
It's a live issue, a democratic deficit and long overdue for reform.
It could actually give more representation even to Farage and the nutters but that is democracy! In the process it might take out some of the anger around issues.

You can sign a petition below:
"Trust in politics is at rock bottom. It’s no wonder why.
It is time for real reform to end the mass disenfranchisement we see under First Past the Post."

https://www.electoral-reform.org.uk...upt-its-time-for-proportional-representation/

 

[Phil Pascoe]

PR was also subject to a referendum only 8 years ago and rejected 68/32.

One specific form of PR was also subject to a referendum only eight years ago and rejected 68/32.

Ftfy.

 

[RobinBHM]

The PR debate is dead and should remain so for at least 30 years, not regurgitated as if it suddenly now has overwhelming justification every time it produces a result you don't like

I can’t see any equivalence of referendums to PR in national elections.

PR in elections is not simply the greatest number wins, there are a number of systems.

the PR debate is certainly not dead in fact I would argue it is the most beneficial change this country could make.

This country has a completely broken political system and it needs reform desperately.

PR systems in a fair few European countries create stable, grown up, non tribal coalitions, far better than the UK.

 

[RobinBHM]

PR is only an argument worth putting forward whilst in opposition - it is simply a function of the way the maths work in a first past the post system

you mean the party than wins on FPTP has no interest in changing the status quo.

although it will be happy to engage in gerrymandering by making constituency changes, introduce indenting cards to cut certain sections of the electorate out of voting…..or engage in pork barrel politics (”levelling up”)

 

[sploo]

PR systems in a fair few European countries create stable, grown up, non tribal coalitions, far better than the UK.

Which countries?

PR has always struck me as the most "fair" system; if 2.8% of the electorate favour the octopus nostril party*, then 2.8% of the seats in your house of parliament will go to the nostril boys. However, I thought that in practice it tends to rarely return a majority government; meaning the largest parties end up having to form coalitions with fringe (often pretty crazy) parties; meaning that the aforementioned eight tentacle lovers end up getting far more leverage in their nation's politics than their vote percentage would support (as they end up being key to holding up a coalition).

* Randomly chosen to avoid using <insert fringe party that will upset someone because they actually support said party>

 

[Jacob]

Which countries?

PR has always struck me as the most "fair" system; if 2.8% of the electorate favour the octopus nostril party*, then 2.8% of the seats in your house of parliament will go to the nostril boys. However, I thought that in practice it tends to rarely return a majority government; meaning the largest parties end up having to form coalitions with fringe (often pretty crazy) parties; meaning that the aforementioned eight tentacle lovers end up getting far more leverage in their nation's politics than their vote percentage would support (as they end up being key to holding up a coalition).

* Randomly chosen to avoid using <insert fringe party that will upset someone because they actually support said party>

All explained here. There are many variations. Proportional Representation

 

[doctor Bob]

I'm a big fan of the "TONP".
Not as good as "The Urchin Rhino Democrats" but the name was an issue

 

[Spectric]

Labour don’t have the numbers currently to win in 2024

But how many will vote tory again after this fiasco, there manifesto should be too little, never enough and eventually. There real colors are starting to show, they will not increase taxation for the wealthy end of the spectrum but more than happy to hit the other end and look like getting a big payrise just to prove they don't lead by example. The NI rates are also a sham, add another break so after a certain income the level increases again and use this to fund the NHS and leave the poorest to pay no more. Next election will be a hung parliament, they no longer have a Corbyn to get labour voters to defect.

 

[Spectric]

Some thought Labour were going to win last election

Well they might had they been honest and upfront with the people rather than sitting on the fence being undecisive over brexit so no one knew where they stood, and clearly demonstrating that they were not happy about that outcome, people don't vote for someone who cannot accept the peoples vote.

 

[RobinBHM]

t would favour Labour perhaps at the moment but that could change. The main thing is that it would favour the minority parties and give them seats more proportional to the national vote

Under PR Labour would almost certainly split, as it’s basically 2 parties.

the UK would then be likely to have coalition social democratic governments

 

[RobinBHM]

But how many will vote tory again after this fiasco

a lot.

I know Biden won “because he wasn’t Trump.

that won’t happen with Starmer.

Labour will still be deeply divided - there are a lot of Jacobs in the Labour Party…….busy bashing the party rather than being focused on winning.

 

[D_W]

Biden is also moderate with really little accomplished but with a reputation for compromising on legislative efforts. It looked attractive and he was able to get POed trump voters (for good reason - Trump squandered his own opportunity).

I think Biden may be squandering his now. He was handed a gift situation. Trump won by not being Hillary or Obama.

Obama won by not being G.W. Bush (he also had a lack of accomplishments, which seems to be an advantage these days as there's not much of substance to criticize if there's not much of substance in the first place).

Obama is semi-forgotten already. If you asked people what he accomplished, I think they might remember the health care bill, but that failed to address the health care issues here and just protected insurers. I don't know what he really accomplished.

I don't know anything that GWB accomplished either.

I think GWB and Obama are both nice guys with good intentions. I don't think the same of Hillary or Trump. Biden graduated 76th out of 85 at syracuse law (which is an OK school, but nothing special). His performance is a lot like that - we didn't really expect a guy coming in with the aptitude to be that deceptive, and maybe that's a good thing.

 

[D_W]

(Biden did claim that he graduated in the top half of his law class before someone tracked down the official records, though. I guess even though I think he's a decent guy, he's still a politician and can't resist using a lie to try to sell his credibility).

 

[doctor Bob]

Labour will still be deeply divided - there are a lot of Jacobs in the Labour Party…….busy bashing the party rather than being focused on winning.

Jacob and his pals will keep Boris in power, daft but true.

 

[Jacob]

.... people don't vote for someone who cannot accept the peoples vote.

Yes they do.They change their minds massively - thats why we have changing governments - sometimes out of the blue taking everybody by surprise. Anyway this idea of "respecting the people's vote" never meant going blindly ahead unconditionally.

 

[Jacob]

a lot.

I know Biden won “because he wasn’t Trump.

that won’t happen with Starmer.

You mean Starmer won't win because he isn't Corbyn? But that's Starmers only platform "A New Leadership" etc etc.
I agree with you - he will lose because he is Starmer, he doesn't need any help!

Labour will still be deeply divided - there are a lot of Jacobs in the Labour Party…….busy bashing the party rather than being focused on winning.

What a ludicrous thing to say. Starmer is frantically bashing the left and purging the party. It's impossible not to know that. He's lost 150,000 members by banning or by resignations. He's even purging Jews - accusing them of antisemitism!!
This is typical

Labour under Starmer is going through some strange times, like nothing ever before.

Seems to be a theme of all these political threads - people attempt to reverse the truth rather than bothering to look at tedious details. Very lazy - but then the details are disturbingly weird.

 

[Terry - Somerset]

In 2010 the UK had a hung parliament. The Libdems who won 57 seats negotiated with both main parties and settled on the Tories (rightly or wrongly).

Hooray - a chance for some grown up consensus cross party politics. It may have continued had the later alternative vote referendum been successful. Fiddling with different PR variants is just tinkering in the margins in the hope of an answer different to that already given.

To their credit Cameron and Clegg made it largely work - both making compromises they would not have wanted had either won overall control.

The judgement of the electorate on the Libdems in 2015 - LOSE 49 SEATS. Cleggs reward from his party - YOU'RE FIRED.

I somewhat doubt the ability of UK politicians to manage coalition politics where none call all the shots. The electorate certainly don't understand.

PR means subordination of political dogma to tolerance, compromise and willingness to act in the wider national interest. There is little evidence to inspire confidence in the UK. Even in Europe where some form of PR is commonplace there are some very clear stresses.

The real risk is that PR would bring with it a decade of instability which would make Brexit fall out seem trivial by comparison.