Traffic on the road is going to get worse

[devonwoody]

Just come back from an early shop (before it got too warm) and the traffic was bad, but when retirement goes to 70 years of age doesn't that mean there will be 10% more drivers around at rush hour. (based on driving age group of 20 to 70 age groups)
Plus more energy will be needed by those employed so greenhouse gases increase will get higher instead of lower, you will be lucky to get to retirement age you younger lot.

 

[ByronBlack]

You are a real ray of sunshine DW.

 

[Mike.C]

You are a real ray of sunshine DW.

Always full of delightful tit bits to make our day :lol:

The trouble is he is probably right.

Cheers

Mike

 

[big soft moose]

theres no real logic to that, as if the 60-70 group were not working they would be at home consuming energy rather than in the workplace consuming energy.

The energy load on the whole is therefore determined by the population not by how many of them are working

also there are a finite number of jobs available, which will not increase by 10% (actually 8.33%) just because retirement age goes up by five years, so this measure wont mean more people at work (or therefore driving during the rushhour)

and finally just because retirement/pensionable age goes up to 70, it doesnt mean that everyone will automatically work that long, as many of those with good personal pensions or independent means will continue to retire early

 

[devonwoody]

BSM, wanna bet?
I have done less than 2500 miles per year driving over the last 18 years since I've retired. Commuters using their cars I bet do around 10K

 

[big soft moose]

BSM, wanna bet?
I have done less than 2500 miles per year driving over the last 18 years since I've retired. Commuters using their cars I bet do around 10K

actually I did more than 30k last year ( I drive during work as well as to and from work)

but so what ?, as i said there are only a finite number of jobs available, so when you retired someone else took over your job and started driving 'your' 10k per year, if you'd not retired you'd still be driving it, but the total number of driven hours per year wouldnt change much either way

 

[devonwoody]

I was a 30K a year man as well, (taxi driving and sales over 30 years) so my driving like other retirees is less but in future this could be a 5 year longer span of driving for some.

Also more people working because more production is taking place means more jobs available, so there will be more drivers on the road in my opinion.

 

[devonwoody]

BTW bsm. 30K per year at 10 mph is 3000 hours driving which is 60 hours per week, when retired you wont have time to do that amount of driving, you will either be too busy enjoying life or too tired.

 

[big soft moose]

BTW bsm. 30K per year at 10 mph is 3000 hours driving which is 60 hours per week, when retired you wont have time to do that amount of driving, you will either be too busy enjoying life or too tired.

yeerbut the vast majority of my driving is at an average speed of 50mph or more - which equates to 600 hours or about 12 per week

on your other point "more production" ?? have you looked at the british economy lately - we dont produce that much, most jobs are service industry and dont automatically create more jobs - Also even if they did through economic growth this would happen anyway regardless of the retirement age as we do not have a labour shortage

 

[Digit]

So unemployment will rise then?

Roy.

 

[devonwoody]

Well BSM, you wont be averaging 50mph, the roads will have more traffic on them, and city driving might come down to 7mph.

 

[big soft moose]

So unemployment will rise then?

Roy.

in theory it ought to - if there are only a finite supply of jobs and people are working longer it stands to reason that there are less jobs available for people coming in to the buisness.

this might be a good thing for the buisness as it would retain the (expensive) expertise in its workforce longer, but all the govt will have acheived is to transfer the cost from pensions to unemployment benefit - a paper saving but not a real one

 

[big soft moose]

Well BSM, you wont be averaging 50mph, the roads will have more traffic on them, and city driving might come down to 7mph.

DW - you have constructed a circular argument and as i said originally the logic is flawed. There are only so many jobs available and therefore a rise in retirement age will not mean an increase in commuter traffic so the roads will not automatically be more crowded (in fact the rising cost of fuel is likely to mean that fewer people drive to work)

also who said anything about city driving, I live in wiltshire, work near oxford and for work drive arround the area of berks, bucks, wilts, glos, oxon - so nearly all my milleage is on motorways travelling at 70mph or more - the average is dragged down by the low speeds arround the oxford ring road so on average the speed is more like 50mph

 

[devonwoody]

Employment will grow, it always does in a capitalist system, more jobs, more driving, and also driven by retirement not available until later in life.
Growth creates employment and capitalism cannot survive unless there is growth.
Can you imagine a return to 3% growth accumulation rate 15 years down the road not leading to more cars on the road plus those later retirees.

 

[big soft moose]

Employment will grow, it always does in a capitalist system, more jobs, more driving, and also driven by retirement not available until later in life.
Growth creates employment and capitalism cannot survive unless there is growth.
Can you imagine a return to 3% growth accumulation rate 15 years down the road not leading to more cars on the road plus those later retirees.

oh FFS - for the third time - the retirees make no difference, there are a certain number of jobs in any given year and these are filled by people - whether they are filled by young people or old people makes no difference to the number of people there are and therefore the number of cars on the road.

on the other point the economy ought to continue to grow unless there is a recesion (in which case it shrinks), and economic growth doesnt necessarily equate to employment especially if more is automated or computerised.

also your figures for growth are wrong - the current growth rate is 0.3% not 3% so accumulation 15 years down the road would work out to slightly over 4.5% (the over being due to the compounding which i cant be bothered to work out)

so we'd have a roughly 5% increase in GDP , which might or might not equate to that number of jobs, but even if it did not all of these jobs would be held by commuters.

so yes this growth (which has nothing to do with pensionable age) might lead to slightly more commuters - but we also have to take into account ther rising cost of fuel which will make it less and less afordable to drive to work

 

[Digit]

I would also suggest that any economy based on continual expansion is inevitably doomed to fail.

Roy.

 

[flounder]

I think the increase in traffic on the roads is more to do with the increase in vehicles on the road due to higher standards of living, rather than increases in retirement age. When I was a kid my parents shared a car between them, now I have a car, my wife has a car, my 19 year old daughter has a car and even my 17 year old son who hasnt even passed his test yet has a car! There are more single occupancy cars on the road now and fewer people using public transport!

 

[devonwoody]

I have lived in the same road for 40 years and I used to be able to cross the road to the other side or drive up to our ring road and never had any hindrance because of traffic.

Forty years later and that is no longer the situation, the 65 to 70 age group will be on the road doing what they did in their 60/65 and there will be more traffic because they will not have had a siesta like I did during the last 60 minutes.

Public transport will increase just the same as private traffic so if there are more buses on the road the traffic will be even more dense.
Think of 8.33% more people getting on or off the bus delaying the traffic behind that much longer.

BTW I travelled the same area as BSM upto the late 60's in addition Hampshire & Surrey, our the division was known as the KK what does your lot name this area?

 

[big soft moose]

Public transport will increase just the same as private traffic so if there are more buses on the road the traffic will be even more dense.
Think of 8.33% more people getting on or off the bus delaying the traffic behind that much longer.

but there wont be 8.33% more comuters because there wont automatically be 8.33% more jobs !!!

BTW I travelled the same area as BSM upto the late 60's in addition Hampshire & Surrey, our the division was known as the KK what does your lot name this area?

we've got part of surrey and part of herts - but we dont call it anything, its just our area of operations

 

[Digit]

Also any predictions of this kind ignore future changes in 'work from home', net working etc.

Roy.