Tier 4

[pcb1962]

Chris Witty (Chief Medical Officer) was on 5 Live earlier today saying that the current vaccines will be effective against the new strain.

 

[Phil Pascoe]

They don't really know for certain they're effective against the existing one.

 

[Jacob]

6 months delayed but now down for cataract op on Jan 4. Am told total isolation from Christmas day itself as have to be tested twice before and completely clear. Otherwise could be put off for a long time (who knows) and become a permanent eyesight issue.
I'm sure it'll be fine but anybody being a bit casual could actually cause somebody else a big problem on top of the bloody virus itself.

 

[billw]

They don't really know for certain they're effective against the existing one.

well it’s only 90% effective anyway, so if everyone in the UK got vaccinated that leaves 6m people at risk.

 

[Jacob]

well it’s only 90% effective anyway, so if everyone in the UK got vaccinated that leaves 6m people at risk.

....with the risk of catching it reduced by 90%. It's a no brainer.

 

[billw]

....with the risk of catching it reduced by 90%. It's a no brainer.

my point was that taking it is not solving the problem, just reducing it.

 

[Terry - Somerset]

Until Boris told us that the virus had mutated, I had assumed that the rapid increase in virus was due pre-xmas shopping crowds generally ignoring any behavioural guidelines. How the scientists separate shopping from mutation is a bit of a mystery!

Personally I find the new restrictions annoying but there is absolutely no point in self pity or whinging. Within 20 minutes we had reorganised xmas for an as yet to be finally agreed date in March.

2021 will be the year of two xmases!

 

[pcb1962]

my point was that taking it is not solving the problem, just reducing it.

It is solving at least one problem, which is that the NHS can cope with 10% of the possible number of cases that it may otherwise have to deal with, leaving resources available for all the cancer patients and others who are currently being neglected.

 

[NormanB]

Honestly - I believe Boris is a libertarian who had no intention of constraining Christmas beyond the previous arrangements. But the new fact(s) about the new strain and more recent epidemiological studies (less than 48 hours old) scared him shitless. If he was ever to discharge his responsibilities as leader he had no option to put the measures in place announced today.
Bad as it is for those put into Tier 4 it is no way as bad as listening to that odious worm Kier Starmer shrieking ’I told the PM he should do this last Wednesday’ - Hey Keir - the critical information was not available then!

 

[Peri]

Working in education I cant say I've really noticed any difference in any of the levels. Our classes are the same size (if not actually larger than previous years), albeit with a bit more remote teaching than we've normally done. Social distancing is impossible.

Having said that, with a staff of considerably more than 500, and several thousand students we've only had around 50 students and a dozen staff with confirmed cases since March - so I'm possibly worrying about it far more than I need to.

I heard on the radio years ago a speaker giving a talk on the misuse of statistics........

I read/watched somewhere a great talk about statistics, the only point that sticks in my head was the speaker saying something like "The statistics show, that in Britain, the average number of arms a person has is less than 2"

 

[pcb1962]

I read/watched somewhere a great talk about statistics, the only point that sticks in my head was the speaker saying something like "The statistics show, that in Britain, the average number of arms a person has is less than 2"

And nearly 50% of the people in this country are of below average intelligence. No wonder we're in such a mess.

 

[sploo]

my point was that taking it is not solving the problem, just reducing it.

That's the same with any vaccine though; but if you can get a decent percentage of the population immune to a particular virus then you greatly reduce the rates of transmission - such that those who cannot be vaccinated (or those who refuse, or those for whom it doesn't work) have a much reduced change of becoming infected.

 

[DBT85]

well it’s only 90% effective anyway, so if everyone in the UK got vaccinated that leaves 6m people at risk.

At those kind of levels you're entering into herd immunity. So many people can't get it that it helps protect those that might be susceptible. This is how most diseases are controlled. The differece here is that instead of waiting for people to spread the disease and die from it as they originally planned, immunity will be raised by injection.

Honestly - I believe Boris is a libertarian who had no intention of constraining Christmas beyond the previous arrangements. But the new fact(s) about the new strain and more recent epidemiological studies (less than 48 hours old) scared him shitless. If he was ever to discharge his responsibilities as leader he had no option to put the measures in place announced today.
Bad as it is for those put into Tier 4 it is no way as bad as listening to that odious worm Kier Starmer shrieking ’I told the PM he should do this last Wednesday’ - Hey Keir - the critical information was not available then!

Starmer is hardly the first person to have suggested it. Even public polling has suggested for weeks that xmas should have been cancelled. The govt probably didn't ask for an actual vote on it in case they dind't get the answer they wanted, not the first time in recent memory after all.

 

[Phil Pascoe]

And nearly 50% of the people in this country are of below average intelligence. No wonder we're in such a mess.

My two neighbours and I have an average of one leg each.

 

[Phil Pascoe]

And nearly 50% of the people in this country are of below average intelligence. No wonder we're in such a mess.

But they're not the ones making it.

 

[Phil Pascoe]

Rod Liddle in this morning's Times -

Chap goes to the doctor. He says: “Doc, I’m really worried about this Covid thing. How lethal is it? Do I need to wear a mask? When will we get a vaccine? And how long will the vaccine last?” And the doctor shakes his head and says: “How would I know? I’m not on Facebook.”

 

[niemeyjt]

The problem seems to be that Government action is not always driven by medical best practice. Instead, economic and social aspects drive decision making.

I return to the UK tomorrow (I hope) and I have to isolate for five full days before I can have a test on boxing day. Had I had a few extra quid in my bank account, or been an expert at kicking pigs' bladders into a net, then I wouldn't. Yet I can see no medical justification for this distinction.

HMG was too keen to ignore medical advice and reopen businesses, waive rules for Xmas etc - and this is the result. Remember the photos of non-socially distanced maskless shoppers? Had they instead operated an entirely medical driven approach then I believe yesterday's announcement would not have been necessary.

 

[Keith 66]

Within 20 minutes we had reorganised xmas for an as yet to be finally agreed date in March.
2021 will be the year of two xmases!

Well as the turkey we ordered from the butcher has grown to the size of a baby T rex our christmas will last to march anyway, it will take us that long to eat it.

 

[MikeJhn]

When you talk to people about self isolation, generally it comes out that their idea of self isolation includes seeing the children and grandchildren and going shopping on a regular basis, since March this year beside the postman and the Tesco delivery man I have only seen about six other people, its easy when you live Rurally, I feel for those that can't.

 

[FullFat]

It made no sense from a disease management point of view when the easing of restrictions for the Christmas period was announced. I suppose it's better late than never that things have changed. It's tough for people but until the vaccine is rolled out it will continue to happen.