THE FOURTH OF JULY

[Keith Cocker]

I am afraid that you are the one showing a closed mind. You have bought the garbage fed to you over the years and I pity your state of fear for the future. I'm 70, a trained historian and have been politically engaged all my life. The last thing people who know me would say of me is that I am naive or starry-eyed but I know good and bad when I see it (on a pragmatic rather than a moral level) and I know that the thinking that has influenced you is leading nowhere beneficial for the UK.

 

[selectortone]

There we have one of the major issues, denial and burying ones head in the sand. To fix any problem it has to be accepted

My three children, son 42 and twin daughters 38, with growing families and all hard-working and with decent jobs are absolutely not in denial. All three are voting Labour, as are just about all their friends, and they fully expect that if fundamentally wh broken things like the NHS, water quality, child poverty etc, etc are to be fixed they will have to pay for it. You seem to have a very poor opinion of the generations who will be bearing the brunt of the cost of fixing the chaos the tories will leave. Don't you have any kids of your own? What do they say?

 

[sploo]

So who is preping for a very hard time ahead under the Starmer administration ? Not a lot you can do but if in later years then you can cash in smaller bonds or make sure they are invested overseas, or just buy those new tools you have been thinking of.

I know of several people running small busineses that have already shut up shop because they had predicted a labour government before the election was called, but the people who have not experienced the chaos of labours inability to manage the economy need there eyes opened. It is a shame that we no longer have a Labour party that is true to it's roots and is just another branch of being conservative.

So as I said, buy your tools and goods now because they are probably a better investment, batten down the hatches and lets enjoy our woodworking whilst this storm passes and 2029 will be an even more interesting election because labour will be in the same position as the conservatives are now but with another leader and many people will be regreting what they wished for.

Can I ask exactly what it is you think that a Starmer government would do bring about such Armageddon?

He could blow millions off the economy by introducing insane tax and spend plans (despite strong advise against); but Truss and Kwarteng already did that.

We could have another round of a deadly disease and he could bungle the response and punt millions to his mates in dodgy contracts... but Johnson already did that.

He could introduce austerity measures and slash funding for public services, but Cameron and Osborne already got there.

He could foul up trading with the EU bloc by acting in bad faith in negotiations, and breaking the law (in a "specific and limited way"); but the Tories already did that too.

Was there something that the previous Labour government did to cause these fears about the economy (that was worse than the actions of the Conservatives over last 14 years)? Are any of those figures from the previous Labour administration still involved today?

Point is: you're predicting the end of the world but for the life of me I can't see any specific evidence to explain that position.

 

[Terry - Somerset]

My three children, son 42 and twin daughters 38, with growing families and all hard-working and with decent jobs are absolutely not in denial. All three are voting Labour, as are just about all their friends, and they fully expect that if fundamentally wh broken things like the NHS, water quality, child poverty etc, etc are to be fixed they will have to pay for it. You seem to have a very poor opinion of the generations who will be bearing the brunt of the cost of fixing the chaos the tories will leave. Don't you have any kids of your own? What do they say?

Their is a huge credibility gap - a Labour government has close to zero chance of fixing the "fundamentally broken" based on the utterly trivial changes in their manifesto.

An example - a pledge of 40k extra NHS appointments per week - 2m pa:

• assume each is 20mins (most are scheduled for less)
• a practice nurse, doctor or specialist can see 18 patients in 6 hours - 90 per week
• delivering additional appointments will require 444 staff (40000/90) - assume 600 to cover holidays, training, sickness etc.
• currently there are ~600k medically trained staff in the NHS from a total of ~1.6m.

The pledge - recruit 1 medically qualified person for every 1000 currently employed. Utterly inconsequential meaningless spin.

Conclusion - the election campaign is an exercise BS - for Labour to make a genuine difference to outcomes will require major tax rises to fund real additional staffing and investment.

If better services are wanted (an entirely reasonable aspiration) it needs to be paid for. Ultimately the only source of funds is the taxpayer. I would not suggest other parties are any more honest in their campaigning!

 

[sploo]

...If better services are wanted (an entirely reasonable aspiration) it needs to be paid for. Ultimately the only source of funds is the taxpayer. I would not suggest other parties are any more honest in their campaigning!

The question in my mind is; is the country fundamentally screwed? I.e. do the numbers simply not add up in the sense that it'd be impossible to tax people at a "fair" level, and provide functional services (NHS, roads, pensions) etc. An ageing population definitely adds pressure (fewer workers, more long term retirees) but what's fundamentally changed in the last ~50 years that means we can't now fund public services? Is there a valid reason, or is it because money is squirrelled off to warm sunny islands?

 

[Spectric]

You seem to have a very poor opinion of the generations who will be bearing the brunt of the cost of fixing the chaos the tories will leave. Don't you have any kids of your own? What do they say?

There is not a single cause of our problems, it is an unfortunate accumulation of problems that started many years ago and then Covid took everything to a new level, Ukraine has not helped and this has left the conservatives floundering in the mire with insufficient funds to do much with unless they raise taxes or cut spending. Whatever party takes the wheel they will still have the same underlying problems and huge national debt so to do anything will raise taxes or cut spending and it is just a question of which and where.

These generations should not be shouldering the debt due to covid, we do not need to just continue in the same rut and doing the same things because we just go round in circles, to fix a big lot of problems you need big changes in many areas such as the civil service, house of lords and the NHS whilst not thinking that money will fix our NHS, the magic words are efficiency, economies of scale and re-organisation. How many people believe that an MP is on the right money for the job along with expenses yet a nurse does not deserve a decent payrise, they are out of sync along with many other jobs.

My daughter is a nurse, fed up with the profession due to so many nurses having quit or emigrated and just puting the pressure on those left, a decent payrise would help but also re-model the nhs to meet the modern demands and give them a decent well equiped place to work where patient care is number 1 rather than targets and get rid of the overpaid paper chasers doing bullshieete jobs.

If you recall the eighties then labour were in a right shambles, leaving the tories free to do as they please and then after blairs reign house prices had risen much faster than wages and in some circles blair is attributed with the current housing crisis where people cannot get on the ladder so Labour + Conservative = zero and neither is better or worse than the other and both are never going to deliver the promises they make because based on past history they never have and until the political system is reformed nothing will change.

Point is: you're predicting the end of the world but for the life of me I can't see any specific evidence to explain that position.

No, the continuing decline of the UK unless massive changes happen for the better, nothing is saying this will happen following the election because neither Labour or Conservatives are being open and honest, the greens will have us in darkness due to carbon zero and Lib dems are just there for whatever reason.

Now as for the end of the world we have not been in such a position since Cuba, the old clock is just 90 seconds away but unlike then we have some really bad leaders with no skills in diplomacy and people like cameron are just not helping whilst having a geriatric US president is un believable. His son is in trouble for guns whilst not declaring his drugs issue yet his dad can have a nuclear arsenal and on some days be non compos mentis ! So unfortunately tommorow is not a given until we wake up and start being nice to each other and condem both war and nuclear, chemical and biological weapons.

 

[Spectric]

The question in my mind is; is the country fundamentally screwed? I.e. do the numbers simply not add up in the sense that it'd be impossible to tax people at a "fair" level, and provide functional services (NHS, roads, pensions) etc. An ageing population definitely adds pressure (fewer workers, more long term retirees) but what's fundamentally changed in the last ~50 years that means we can't now fund public services? Is there a valid reason, or is it because money is squirrelled off to warm sunny islands?

Bang on, I think of it like buy now and pay in three where had we kept on top of everything and fixed issues as they appeared then we would not now be in such a financial hole, it is why we apply maintenance to various systems and such so as to prevent an expensive catastrophic failure that would be a large financial hit. The tax equation should not be difficult, I need this much to fix everything and want to do it over say ten years with this many tax payers and then you realise you need to increase the time from ten to thirty years to make the tax burden realistic in which time you end up chasing your tail so now do you borrow and increase the national debt ? Also your outgoings to pensioners is rising and tax returns diminishing .

You also need to keep in mind the issues of global warming , another expensive journey we cannot afford to just do whilst at the same time should not ignore but back to the empty piggy bank problem. This is why I blame Sunak for breaking promises he made yet understand why things are not happening, what do you do to get out of this mess without taxing hard or cutting hard or both.

 

[Jake]

The Tories always break Britain and it falls to Labour to fix it, the things the Tories say are impossible turn out to be possible with better economic management.

 

[Jacob]

.... The UK is so broken and in pieces

I agree

that there is no magic potion to fix ..

It's very easy; tax and spend. A lot of tax as there is a lot to catch up on, after 14 years of tory misrule, or 45 years if you count back to Thatcher.
Taxation and public spending drives the economy - what goes around comes around.
Things need to be seen as an emergency, needing solutions now, not fiddling about in the hopes of things gradually improving some time in the future. The homeless, those on NHS waiting lists, etc etc need help now, not next year or next generation.

 

[Spectric]

But higher taxes mean people have less to spend so less going into economy but it does mean things can get done providing the money is not wasted and people can see real change. Maybe we need to look at selling some assets such as one or two of the crown jewels to make a dent in the national debt and reduce the repayments.

 

[Jacob]

But higher taxes mean people have less to spend

Basic fundamental mistake. A strong progressive taxation system means that only those who have too much end up having less to spend. They won't even miss it, in any meaningful way.

so less going into economy

No it means more is going into the economy instead of being stashed away by people who don't need it

but it does mean things can get done providing the money is not wasted and people can see real change. Maybe we need to look at selling some assets such as one or two of the crown jewels to make a dent in the national debt and reduce the repayments.

Or just a basic wealth tax. Shift money from where it is not needed and make it work for society.
What goes around comes around.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...-net-worth-british-billionaires-b2564416.html

 

[curryjunkie]

So who is preping for a very hard time ahead under the Starmer administration ? Not a lot you can do but if in later years then you can cash in smaller bonds or make sure they are invested overseas, or just buy those new tools you have been thinking of.

I know of several people running small busineses that have already shut up shop because they had predicted a labour government before the election was called, but the people who have not experienced the chaos of labours inability to manage the economy need there eyes opened. It is a shame that we no longer have a Labour party that is true to it's roots and is just another branch of being conservative.

So as I said, buy your tools and goods now because they are probably a better investment, batten down the hatches and lets enjoy our woodworking whilst this storm passes and 2029 will be an even more interesting election because labour will be in the same position as the conservatives are now but with another leader and many people will be regreting what they wished for.

you really do live in an alternative universe, have you been paying attention at all the last decade?

 

[Spectric]

you really do live in an alternative universe, have you been paying attention at all the last decade?

Someone else who thinks starmer has a magic wand and growth potion but is in for disappointment. Having lived through more than 5 decades of labour / conservative governments the one thing that they have in common is not being honest and failing to deliver with a few odd surprises and back then the country was not broken or so run down and yet the brakes were never applied to stop the decline so why cling onto false hope now.

 

[curryjunkie]

Someone else who thinks starmer has a magic wand and growth potion but is in for disappointment. Having lived through more than 5 decades of labour / conservative governments the one thing that they have in common is not being honest and failing to deliver with a few odd surprises and back then the country was not broken or so run down and yet the brakes were never applied to stop the decline so why cling onto false hope now.

where did i state starmer has a magic wand? arent you all in on reform? and how did you vote the last 3 elections? i dont get dissapointed living in ireland. but still keep an eye on uk politics as it affects us sometimes ,and still have family in UK.

 

[Terry - Somerset]

The question in my mind is; is the country fundamentally screwed? I.e. do the numbers simply not add up in the sense that it'd be impossible to tax people at a "fair" level, and provide functional services (NHS, roads, pensions) etc. An ageing population definitely adds pressure (fewer workers, more long term retirees) but what's fundamentally changed in the last ~50 years that means we can't now fund public services? Is there a valid reason, or is it because money is squirrelled off to warm sunny islands?

Over the last 50 years the number of pensioners has increased substantially, the birth rate has fallen, and years spent in education (leaving school at 16 was normal) has increased with university attracting ~40% of kids. There may be some offsetting issues - eg: more women working.

Taken together this will have reduced the proportion of folk who actually work to support the rest - probably why net immigration has been a constant feature of the last 30 years. These issues impact not just the UK but many with similar levels of development, demographics and history.

More important is the international comparison. Europe -16% of population below the age of 15. Asia 24%, Latin America 26% and Africa 41%. Those over 65 are are similarly skewed.

High growth economies have large working age populations able to compete on price. Earth is now a global community (communication, transport etc) not independent nation states. Growth in developed countries (US, Japan, Europe) will be slow.

I do not think we are "fundamentally screwed" - but we do need to very explicitly act on issues which usually sit in the "too difficult to discuss so let's pretend it doesn't exist" category:

• too often we see change as a threat not an opportunity. That change can involve pain for long term benefit is not a reason to delay
• life expectancy is growing, but healthy active life is not. More time is spent with debilitating illnesses with a low quality of life. I accept there are differing views but a very explicit debate on assisted dying is needed
• society aspires to provide "all" with "the best". Healthcare is an example - there are 25% more nurses and 45% more doctors than in 2010 yet performance has declined Covid a major but not the only cause. NHS statistics
• we need to explicitly articulate that which as a society we want, and equally that which will not be funded. We need politicians with the integrity to say "no". We have created an entitlement society which expects and often does not contribute

Democratic processes should determine the level of tax and public spending. We need to be very clear about the priorities, stick with them and stop responding to every pressure group, media article and sob story.

Neither personally, nor as a community, can we realistically expect to get all we aspire or wish for.

 

[John Brown]

Someone else who thinks starmer has a magic wand and growth potion but is in for disappointment. Having lived through more than 5 decades of labour / conservative governments the one thing that they have in common is not being honest and failing to deliver with a few odd surprises and back then the country was not broken or so run down and yet the brakes were never applied to stop the decline so why cling onto false hope now.

I don't understand what point you're trying to make. You keep suggesting things will be much worse if Labour get a majority, then you say both Labour and Conservative are as bad as each other. I think you need to stop talking nonsense and make your mind up. The Tories have had 14 years to do stuff, but really haven't. Now, when the prospect of an election defeat is looming, they say they'll do better. It's too late, in my opinion.

 

[Jacob]

....

I do not think we are "fundamentally screwed" - but we do need to very explicitly act on issues which usually sit in the "too difficult to discuss so let's pretend it doesn't exist" category:

• ....

I agree.
The elephant in the room, the "too difficult to discuss so let's pretend it doesn't exist" issue, is the urgent need to tax and spend.
Do you think there could be another way to deal with current problems?
A magic money tree? A goose laying golden eggs? Spend today, pay back tomorrow?

 

[Spectric]

I think you need to stop talking nonsense and make your mind up.

Why do some people have such a problem comprehending basic english ?

This is not a digital equation with just a binary outcome , you can have a scale of issues where more than one input can be classed as bad but both are at different parts of the scale so one is more than the other. I fully agree that the conservatives have had 14 years to do stuff but again it is not that straightforward, lets not forget Covid and as I said Sunak has broken many of the promises he made but at least they are a known entity even if not brilliant unlike other partys that are unknown or not divulging everything so stability is on the line.

The question in my mind is; is the country fundamentally screwed

Without raising taxes or cutting services then it is stalemate, you have no money to spend and this leads to @jacobs question

Do you think there could be another way to deal with current problems?

It looks like if you cannot or do not want to borrow but want to spend then where do you get the income from, raising taxes is one option but you will have to squeeze further up the tree as the ones at the bottom are getting a bit pushed. If any party comes out and says if you want things to get better then we will raise taxes further it is like political suicide and comes back to finding money to spend. Of course streamlining services and making them more efficient would save money at the cost of jobs but it would not be enough on it's own.

 

[Spectric]

where did i state starmer has a magic wand? arent you all in on reform? and how did you vote the last 3 elections?

You did not, I said that in a previous post because many are keen to know where Starmer is looking to get money from and in the last three I voted Labour, Labour and my one and only Conservative . If it was not Starmer I would vote Labour again but he is just to Tory.

 

[John Brown]

Why do some people have such a problem comprehending basic english ?

I have no problem at all understanding basic English, when I encounter it.