Social distancing, .. what's that?

[RobinBHM]

have also asked how many do you personally know who have actually died, or people you know that personally know others who have died

That's anecdotal not evidence, you wouldn't use it to enhance your argument if anybody you knew had suffered from it.

My niece works in the local hospital as a radiographer, she did chest scans on Covid patients, she saw first hand the unique and severe lung damage it can do.

2 people she knows in the hospital had it, both were ill. One will never return to work, one now has heart damage.

I agree the UK has to restore the economy, but the economy won't recover if there is a second wave.

It's a very careful balance, we must be vigilant in social distancing, infection control and where appropriate social bubbles.

The secret saviour is test and trace

 

[RobinBHM]

Surley the actions taken to reduce covid, should also reduce fku?
That is if they actually worked.

That is true.

there hasn't been a flu outbreak, so it probably has stopped it....although it's a winter thing really, all those miserable cold days.

Kids back at school in the Autumn terms are mass spreaders of colds and flu, so they probably will do that this year too.....it could even be worse if people have lost immunity to coughs and colds.

My mum was a teacher, she used to always catch colds when going back in Sept.

 

[artie]

That is true.

there hasn't been a flu outbreak,

They're not my figures but someone a few posts up stated, and I'm sure they can back it up otherwise they wouldn't have posted, that Flu is currently killing more people than covid.

But you say there hasn't been a flue outbreak, but there has been covid outbreak.

I'm confused.

I'm also wondering, if someone has the flu and dies for any reason within 28 days, does it go down as a flu death>

 

[Trainee neophyte]

Perhaps we are losing sight of the fact that everyone is at risk of something. Different policies, designed to protect different parts of the community, have repurcussions. Actions have consequences, in other words. We could stop the virus in its tracks by locking every single person in their homes for a month. All of them. No shops, no supermarkets, no hospitals. No one goes outside. Problem solved. The unintended consequences would be quite horrific, but the virus would be gone. No more travel abroad, obviously, and complete isolation of the country would be required, so no more Chinese tool imports or French cheeses.

Obviously that would never work, because the cure would do more damage than the illness. But any shutdown has implications, and there will be deaths, suicides, bankruptcies, mental illnesses etc. It's a bit like being captain of the Titanic post iceberg: you have x number of passengers, and x minus quite a lot lifeboat seats - who do you save, and who do you kill, or rather through inaction allow to die? What is the most effective outcome? How do you juggle young lives verses old, covid deaths verses other deaths etc? We seem to be arguing over where in the sliding scale the pointer should be set - luckily it's not our decision, because however you chose, someone has to die as a result.

 

[Rorschach]

I'm also wondering, if someone has the flu and dies for any reason within 28 days, does it go down as a flu death>

We don't test for flu, or rather we test very rarely. If you die of a respiratory illness you are assumed to have died of flu since it is the most common and most deadly. If you die of pneumonia then that is listed as the cause of death even though flu is a common cause of pneumonia.

People saying flu is not that deadly and C19 is worse are generally ignorant of what Flu really is, possibly because of phrases like "ManFlu" that weaken our view of things. Real Flu is very dangerous and is deadly, is it more deadly than C19? I think it is as do many other scientists but we will never really know for certain as we don't have accurate enough data. One thing we do know, C19 does not kill children or the young and healthy (except in very rare cases), Flu on the other hand not only kills the old and vulnerable but it also kills healthy younger people and is especially nasty ofr young childen, primary school children get Flu vaccines every year because it is so bad for them. In terms of life years lost, Flu is way up there with many what we perceive to be nasty diseases, C19 on the other hand is very low in the life years lost as it is killing people very close to the natural end of their lives.

 

[Selwyn]

There has been massive effort to reduce the R value to flatten the curve to stop the NHS being overwhelmed.

So you making trying to make a comparison of false equivalence.....unless of course you can point to a flu pandemic where the world put measures in place to slow the spread.

Well flu is currently killing more than Covid. And lockdown didn't seem to slow flu down did it?

They are both respiratory diseases

 

[AJB Temple]

There is no means of telling whether lockdown slowed flu down (or anything else) because we do not know what would have happened had we not locked down. This is true of everything that has no control trial. (Sweden is slightly indicative but population density is radially different to highly affected parts of the UK).

 

[artie]

We don't test for flu, or rather we test very rarely.

What I was getting at, is, if someone tests positive for covid and dies for any reason within 28 days it gets recorded as a covid death. Therefore in my opinion falsely exaggerating the rate.

If someone dies of flu it will go down as flu, if they get hit with a bus three weeks after the doc says they have flu, the death doesn't go down as flu.

 

[Droogs]

nor if they have covid and die from the bus impact - c'mon

 

[Rorschach]

What I was getting at, is, if someone tests positive for covid and dies for any reason within 28 days it gets recorded as a covid death. Therefore in my opinion falsely exaggerating the rate.

If someone dies of flu it will go down as flu, if they get hit with a bus three weeks after the doc says they have flu, the death doesn't go down as flu.

That is pretty must the gist of it from what I understand.

 

[Rorschach]

nor if they have covid and die from the bus impact - c'mon

Not true, if you have a C19 positive test within 28 days of death you are recorded as such, even if the actual cause of your death was something else.

 

[AJB Temple]

Not true, if you have a C19 positive test within 28 days of death you are recorded as such, even if the actual cause of your death was something else.

I think this is wrong. My wife works for a firm providing safe custody of investment assets. When people die, the firm requires sight of the death certificate as part of the asset release policies. Clearly there is a time lag here so what she is seeing now is from the early to mid part oil lockdown. Certificates may mention the presence of Covid but the cause of death will be listed as whatever the doctor thinks the main factor was. Rarely Covid.

 

[Rorschach]

I think this is wrong. My wife works for a firm providing safe custody of investment assets. When people die, the firm requires sight of the death certificate as part of the asset release policies. Clearly there is a time lag here so what she is seeing now is from the early to mid part oil lockdown. Certificates may mention the presence of Covid but the cause of death will be listed as whatever the doctor thinks the main factor was. Rarely Covid.

I never said it was listed as primary cause, just that it was listed and if C19 is on your death certificate then you are counted among the C19 deaths, that's why they say "died WITH C19" rather than FROM.

 

[artie]

nor if they have covid and die from the bus impact - c'mon

Look it up, official gov site.

 

[heimlaga]

Sweden had rapid spread of Covid 19 as they refused any sort of lockdown at the beginning of the crisis. At present around 5% of the population in Sweden has measurable amounts of antibodies. 5800 have died. Icelandic research proves that practically everyone who has had the virus gets measurable amounts f antibodies so we can say that around 5% has had the virus.
If that had been allowed to continue Sweden would have had around 120000 deaths before the virus would have gone over the entire population.
However ordinary peope in Sweden did what the government neglected and created a sort of voluntary spontaneous lockdown which has largely halted the virus.
Applying the Swedish figures to Britain would mean 700000 Brits dead from covid 19 if there were no restrictions governmental nor voluntary.

Wishful thinking has never stopped an epidemic.

 

[Rorschach]

Sweden had rapid spread of Covid 19 as they refused any sort of lockdown at the beginning of the crisis. At present around 5% of the population in Sweden has measurable amounts of antibodies. 5800 have died. Icelandic research proves that practically everyone who has had the virus gets measurable amounts f antibodies so we can say that around 5% has had the virus.
If that had been allowed to continue Sweden would have had around 120000 deaths before the virus would have gone over the entire population.
However ordinary peope in Sweden did what the government neglected and created a sort of voluntary spontaneous lockdown which has largely halted the virus.
Applying the Swedish figures to Britain would mean 700000 Brits dead from covid 19 if there were no restrictions governmental nor voluntary.

Wishful thinking has never stopped an epidemic.

You are so wrong on so many points here I don't even know where to start.

 

[Selwyn]

That is true.

there hasn't been a flu outbreak, so it probably has stopped it....although it's a winter thing really, all those miserable cold days.

Kids back at school in the Autumn terms are mass spreaders of colds and flu, so they probably will do that this year too.....it could even be worse if people have lost immunity to coughs and colds.

My mum was a teacher, she used to always catch colds when going back in Sept.

Flu isn't anything to do with cold days. Its to do with people being inside more

 

[RobinBHM]

Flu isn't anything to do with cold days. Its to do with people being inside more

Yes I know, I was merely making the point when flu is around its often miserable and cold weather.

 

[woodhutt]

It could pay to read this article. Particularly the armchair experts who appear to post ad nauseam on the subject.

https://theconversation.com/now-eve...mchair-covid-experts-are-getting-wrong-144494

 

[artie]

It could pay to read this article. Particularly the armchair experts who appear to post ad nauseam on the subject.

https://theconversation.com/now-eve...mchair-covid-experts-are-getting-wrong-144494

I'm sorry but that article means absolutely nothing.
It's all about estimates, best estimates and speculation.