Social distancing, .. what's that?

[artie]

Flu isn't anything to do with cold days. Its to do with people being inside more

Is flu not a virus?

 

[woodhutt]

I'm sorry but that article means absolutely nothing.
It's all about estimates, best estimates and speculation.

Actually, the article is largely about the incorrect interpretation of information out there, some deliberate, and which is disseminated on social media (and posts like this) which give a voice to conspiracy theorists and ultracrepidarians.
I would have thought that the solution to reacting to the pandemic would be fairly simple. Look at those countries who have successfully suppressed the disease and those who haven't. Copy the former and avoid the latter.
However, as this will be my last post on this forum (and even visit to the site), I won't get into a discussion on the subject. I had joined the site believing I would have something in common with the members originating, as I do, from the UK albeit almost 50 years ago. I have learned from reading the various posts that this is not the case. The past really is a different country. It has been an eye-opening experience for which, I suppose, I must say thanks.
I'll sign off wishing you all the best in your future post-covid, post Brexit world.

 

[Trainee neophyte]

which give a voice to conspiracy theorists and ultracrepidarians.

A pitty you have gone, because I wanted to thank you for expanding my vocabulary. "Ultracrepidarian" is definitely my word of the day. If you last saw the UK in 1970, then you are absolutely right that the past is another country.

 

[Rorschach]

Which countries have successfully suppressed C19? I haven't seen any.

 

[heimlaga]

New Zeeland has been fairly successful and Finland and Iceland aren't too far behind.

In this game there is nothing such as a total success. Only various grades of failiour. Falling just a little short of success is way better than a big time screw up when losses are roughly proportional to the grade of failiour.

 

[Terry - Somerset]

I don't see much merit in comparing the UK with countries which are fundamentally dissimilar - it is simply an exercise in selective statistics. Comparators should be similar in:

• population density (Sweden is 10% of UK)
• large centres of population (Helsinki is about the size of Bristol)
• level of development (agriculture is NZ largest industry)
• international connectivity (UK is hub, NZ is end of the line)
• economic performance (Vietnam <$3k per capita, UK $42k)

Thus obvious comparators are European - France, Italy, Spain have performed broadly similar to the UK, Germany is worth a good look to understand better practice.

The other obvious anomaly is Japan with very low virus deaths.

Also need to consider culture and politics - eg: China "benefits" from a compliant population - challenge the government and prison camp may await. Germany is generally attatched to "alles in ordnung".

The UK by contrast delights in individualism - no matter how profoundly daft.

 

[artie]

We already missed out on a lot of family time

This is the point, we won't get this time back, it's gone wasted.

 

[heimlaga]

We will never get this time back.......... but tomorrow we will have to live with the consequeces of our decisions made today. Even avoiding to make a decision counts as a decision.
If you decide to be irresposible you are the one who has to carry the blame if it gets a bad end.

In my family we have decided that all family time where different households meet is to be outdoors or if it is raining very heavily in a half open tractor shed where the wind is blowing trough. Households stay at least 3 metres apart and eat their own food at different tables. Never more than three households at once.
Loosing three months of family time the coming winter is a small price to pay for increasing the survival chances of our elders and all other sickly or elderly people in the country.

There are certainly other clever ways for those of you who live in a more urban environment. In my opinion each and every one of us should think outside all boxes and try to come up with ways that fits his/her family.

 

[Selwyn]

Yes I know, I was merely making the point when flu is around its often miserable and cold weather.

Sure. Common misinterpretation is that flu is weather related though

 

[Rorschach]

Got my last post deleted for encouraging illegal acitvity, oops! lol.

A slightly different question then that was asked on the radio at lunchtime, would you phone the police on your neighbours if you saw them have more than 6 people in their house?

 

[billw]

Got my last post deleted for encouraging illegal acitvity, oops! lol.

A slightly different question then that was asked on the radio at lunchtime, would you phone the police on your neighbours if you saw them have more than 6 people in their house?

No, that rule is farcical if you can go to pubs and socialise indoors with people you don’t know.

 

[heimlaga]

Are you on this forum for any other reason than starting quarrels Rorschach?

You need an axe and a bow saw and 20 full size windfallen pine trees to turn into sawlogs and firewood. That is the best cure I know of when my brain is boiling and I feel like starting a fight would be a good idea.

 

[RobinBHM]

Which countries have successfully suppressed C19? I haven't seen any.

why does it need suppressing

according to you it is innocuous

 

[RobinBHM]

What I was getting at, is, if someone tests positive for covid and dies for any reason within 28 days it gets recorded as a covid death. Therefore in my opinion falsely exaggerating the rate.

If someone dies of flu it will go down as flu, if they get hit with a bus three weeks after the doc says they have flu, the death doesn't go down as flu.

the method of reporting was changed to make the figures more up to date

it has hardly any overall effect on the numbers

if you dont like the govt figures, use the ONS they use the primary cause written on the death cert

 

[RobinBHM]

I never said it was listed as primary cause, just that it was listed and if C19 is on your death certificate then you are counted among the C19 deaths, that's why they say "died WITH C19" rather than FROM.

not on the ONS figures

 

[Rorschach]

why does it need suppressing

according to you it is innocuous

I don't think it needs suppressing, I was asking @woodhutt to back up his claim.

 

[Rorschach]

not on the ONS figures

Yes it is. (They state it on their site, you can look for yourself)

 

[Rorschach]

Well the last time I was due to take a trip it was cancelled by Boris with lockdown Mk1. Now I am due to take another trip and Boris is once again scheduled to make an important announcement.

 

[billw]

Well the last time I was due to take a trip it was cancelled by Boris with lockdown Mk1. Now I am due to take another trip and Boris is once again scheduled to make an important announcement.

He's quitting.

 

[Doug71]

After 6 months off school my 10 yr old managed one week back before a teaching assistant tested positive so we are back to home schooling again, his whole class has to isolate for 2 weeks I can't see how schools are going to manage to stay open.