Petrol Stations

[Vulcan]

I hope they stay open over here long enough for me to get an EV …

https://www.dutchnews.nl/2024/07/ha...20small,Ukraine%20and%20the%20energy%20crisis.

 

[Jacob]

Trouble is the EV isn't about saving the planet it's about saving the motor industry, which is the biggest generator of CO2 and biggest cause of climate change.
EVs are their last hope and probably a dead end.
We need better public transport and to work closer to home.
Phasing out the IC should have begun years ago, to induce us to adjust to the new world now facing us.

 

[TRITON]

Trouble is the EV isn't about saving the planet it's about saving the motor industry, which is the biggest generator of CO2 and biggest cause of climate change.
EVs are their last hope and probably a dead end.
We need better public transport and to work closer to home.
Phasing out the IC should have begun years ago, to induce us to adjust to the new world now facing us.

Though it isnt about the oil industry shutting up shop. We'll still need it for industry, lubes, manufacture of synthetic fibres etc.

 

[niemeyjt]

Maybe petrol stations need to diversify - like selling hydrogen - which Toyota at least see as the future.

 

[Inspector]

Phasing out the IC should have begun years ago, to induce us to adjust to the new world now facing us.

Phasing out IC engines for you and I trying to get to the store or work is not a big problem. The real problem is the amounts of fuel needed to farm, get it to processors and distributors, truck, ship and fly the food to near us and then get it to a store. Same goes for just about every product we need including glue, wood, finishes and fasteners. The car is visible and easy to pick on. Real answer is to reduce the birth rate so there isn't such a big demand on the earth's resources. I know. Not going to happen.

Pete

 

[Jacob]

Phasing out IC engines for you and I trying to get to the store or work is not a big problem. The real problem is the amounts of fuel needed to farm, get it to processors and distributors, truck, ship and fly the food to near us and then get it to a store. Same goes for just about every product we need including glue, wood, finishes and fasteners. The car is visible and easy to pick on. Real answer is to reduce the birth rate so there isn't such a big demand on the earth's resources. I know. Not going to happen.

Pete

High birthrate is the species survival mechanism in most life forms including ourselves. If the going gets tough then there will be more chance of survivors if we already have a large population. Not much fun for individuals but good for the species.

 

[ajs]

Real answer is to reduce the birth rate so there isn't such a big demand on the earth's resources. I know. Not going to happen.

Pete

China did it for 40 years, they are now desperate to undo the results since they are facing a demographic time bomb that makes the baby boomers here in the West seem mild by comparison.

 

[Spectric]

The petrochemical industry is like a stack of cards or tins on a shelf in that you cannot just take one from somewhere in the middle. It is a process that produces petroleum but also a lot of byproducts that we also need and that if you have no outlets for petrol or diesel then you either shut the refineries or stockpile the unwanted fuel and raise the cost of everything you can sell to cover the running cost of the refinery. The list of products from petroleum is extensive and includes butane / propane at one end and asphalt at the bottom so once there is no demand for petrol / diesel or aviation fuel then we lose a lot of other products as well.

 

[Terry - Somerset]

The birth rate in many countries including EU and UK has fallen to ~1.5 per woman - below replacement rate.

For 1000's of years populations remained static despite a birth rate of 5 or more per woman. Many (most) died in childhood or before they could reproduce through hunger and disease.

The growth in populations over the last 150-200 years seems to have arisen as:

• advances in medical science, food supplies, sanitation, clean water, vaccinations etc reduced mortality and allowed more children to survive and reproduce
• reduction in birth rate lagged improvements in survival rates as reproduction behaviours will tend to reflect parents and grand-parent attitudes, not advances yet to occur.

At 1.5 births per woman the population will decline - but it will take a long time. Until ~1970 the birth rate was over 2.0 - those born in the 1980s will (mostly) still be around in 2060. Their children will still be drawing pensions until ~2100.

Only then will an overall population reduction start to emerge - assuming our actions don't destroy the planet first!!

 

[Diver Fred]

China did it for 40 years, they are now desperate to undo the results since they are facing a demographic time bomb that makes the baby boomers here in the West seem mild by comparison.

But China has a problem that is less likely to occur in the west - they expect the eldest male to provide for the parents in their dotage. that did cause a great imbalance of the genders in the Chinese population with the females becoming very prized.
There was reports in the respectable press of illegal gender checking and abortions.

 

[artie]

Real answer is to reduce the birth rate so there isn't such a big demand on the earth's resources. I know. Not going to happen.

Pete

Haven't you noticed?

Birth rates are plummeting throughout the western world.

Some "experts" say the "white/Caucasian" race is in such a decline it can never recover.

 

[Agent_zed]

High birthrate is the species survival mechanism in most life forms including ourselves. If the going gets tough then there will be more chance of survivors if we already have a large population. Not much fun for individuals but good for the species.

True, but you are missing the reason for this. Population dynamics in the animal kingdom that rely on high birthrates are due to high mortality rates. Populations fluctuate as disease and predation come and go. Population increases - predators increase - population decreases - predators decrease - repeat. They normally find a relatively stable equalibrium assuming no external factors.

The trouble with humans is we have eliminated our predators (mostly) and for the most part are dodging disease events that wipe out large numbers of people.

We've tipped the hand in our favour (for now) at the expense of all other species.

 

[Jacob]

True, but you are missing the reason for this. Population dynamics in the animal kingdom that rely on high birthrates are due to high mortality rates. Populations fluctuate as disease and predation come and go. Population increases - predators increase - population decreases - predators decrease - repeat. They normally find a relatively stable equalibrium assuming no external factors.

The trouble with humans is we have eliminated our predators (mostly) and for the most part are dodging disease events that wipe out large numbers of people.

We've tipped the hand in our favour (for now) at the expense of all other species.

No it is not only predators and applies to the plant kingdom the same. Deteriorating life conditions whether through war, disease, famine, environmental issues, etc. can produce increasing reproduction rates. e.g. in wartime we are our own predators and population booms tend to follow.
It's the first thing you learn in school biology, with reference to the amoeba, which survives dry-outs by "encysting" and reproducing in thousands when (if) the opportunity arrives.

 

[Ozi]

The petrochemical industry is like a stack of cards or tins on a shelf in that you cannot just take one from somewhere in the middle. It is a process that produces petroleum but also a lot of byproducts that we also need and that if you have no outlets for petrol or diesel then you either shut the refineries or stockpile the unwanted fuel and raise the cost of everything you can sell to cover the running cost of the refinery. The list of products from petroleum is extensive and includes butane / propane at one end and asphalt at the bottom so once there is no demand for petrol / diesel or aviation fuel then we lose a lot of other products as well.

Not my area of expertise but I think it's true that modern refineries can crack to different proportions of molecular weight according to demand, the days when the unwanted grades had to be burned off in pits ended in the 1900s.

 

[Agent_zed]

No it is not only predators and applies to the plant kingdom the same. Deteriorating life conditions whether through war, disease, famine, environmental issues, etc. can produce increasing reproduction rates. e.g. in wartime we are our own predators and population booms tend to follow.
It's the first thing you learn in school biology, with reference to the amoeba, which survives dry-outs by "encysting" and reproducing in thousands when (if) the opportunity arrives.

not really sure what you are arguing? You want more births? The human species has been around for 100's thousands of years and didn't need 8 billion of us to last all that time, and stands a much better chance of surviving if there are significantly less of us.

Also I didn't just say predators and didn't need to mention the plant kingdom as it was superfluous to the main point.

Sure we have some wars but a few million people gone out of 8 Billion is not a lot in the grand scheme of things and isn't going to effect our survival as a species.

If you look at the global population graphs, wars don't actually make much of a difference overall. There has been been a rapid increase in global population from the 1900s mostly due to medicine, healthcare and farming. If anything we need to educate the countries that relied on many offspring to not have as many now that it is more likely they will survive, which is where we have mostly come to.

Ironically if you know anything about population dynamics you'll also know that a significant disease event is more likely to occur when population density is high and moves around a lot. E.g more people does not necessarily mean greater chance of survival as it is easier for something far worse than COVID to rip through the worlds population.

What this means for petrol stations I'm not sure.

 

[Agent_zed]

The petrochemical industry is like a stack of cards or tins on a shelf in that you cannot just take one from somewhere in the middle. It is a process that produces petroleum but also a lot of byproducts that we also need and that if you have no outlets for petrol or diesel then you either shut the refineries or stockpile the unwanted fuel and raise the cost of everything you can sell to cover the running cost of the refinery. The list of products from petroleum is extensive and includes butane / propane at one end and asphalt at the bottom so once there is no demand for petrol / diesel or aviation fuel then we lose a lot of other products as well.

in ~40 years (assuming current reserve estimates are correct) we won't have a choice. Regardless of climate change or pollution, fossil fuels are finite. They will run out, no ifs or buts, just a question of when.

 

[Jacob]

not really sure what you are arguing? You want more births?

No of course not. I'm arguing that increased population is a survival mechanism, but for the species - not for existing individuals, communities or society as a whole.

The human species has been around for 100's thousands of years and didn't need 8 billion of us to last all that time, and stands a much better chance of surviving if there are significantly less of us.
......

Well yes and a huge population drop, if not extinction, is what climate change will bring about.
The issue for us is the extent to which we can control this for our benefit as existing individuals, communities or society as a whole. We want more than just a few surveyors in a post apocalypse scrap-iron age. Might be possible - we brought about the crisis and we know what measures we need to take to reverse it.

 

[Cabinetman]

Japan’s demographic problem is an indication of what is going to happen in the Western World, it’s already started. Even the BBC has picked up on it, the figures are alarming, sorry, look it up, I don’t have time to find it, travelling today.
I am sure the problem is very well known to the powers that be, presumably why they are allowing/fostering such high immigration, estimated 10 million in the US this year alone. We will need workers to keep the lights on and Industry turning. They are preparing for a time when India and some other countries population growth far exceeds ours,

 

[Jacob]

Japan’s demographic problem is an indication of what is going to happen in the Western World, it’s already started. Even the BBC has picked up on it, the figures are alarming, sorry, look it up, I don’t have time to find it, travelling today.
I am sure the problem is very well known to the powers that be, presumably why they are allowing/fostering such high immigration, estimated 10 million in the US this year alone. We will need workers to keep the lights on and Industry turning. They are preparing for a time when India and some other countries population growth far exceeds ours,

But it is not a problem if we need a smaller population. May need some adjustments though!
But then you have to ask yourself why Japan has falling population.
https://earth.org/understanding-jap...lternative-perspective-on-population-decline/
The answer seems to be that populations fall in peaceful "western" civilisations where the quality of life is stable, good for all and not under threat. People then have control over their lives and choose how their family will live.

 

[AJB Temple]

Various articles and studies cite declining make and female fertility as a factor. Dietary and environmental factors. It would be interesting to map changes in IQ as the population alters.