One-jab efficacy questions

[Selwyn]

I understand your point, but in a pandemic with a novel virus, you can't make assumptions and the scientists are learning as fast as the data is available.

We don't know yet how long natural or vaccine acquired immunity lasts, so we don't know if it's possible to catch it again.


I really hope the vaccine roll out will continue and we are able to vaccinate all adults as soon as possible so we can prevent the inevitable next wave needing lockdowns.

USA is doing pretty well on vaccination rates as far as I know, I hope the sceptics can be persuaded to be jabbed.

We've made a load of assumptions from day 1. Dodgy modelling and exponential growth for one.
There have also been a lot of assumptions about the vaccine.

"prevent the next inevitable wave needing lockdowns" - you have swallowed all this hook, line and sinker!

Its absolute madness what we are doing to our country!

 

[Selwyn]

But tomindales then goes on to say “Data on this is only just emerging in India so we really dont know, but its something to watch as that would change the risk profile”. He is not scaremongering, just advocating being vigilant, this disease has wrong footed us a number of times, like the Kent variant destroying our tiered system and putting us in lockdown in January.

The kent variant didn't destroy our tiered system. Political decisions did. The kent variant spread around the world in no time at all. You think it originated in Kent and then just went round england?

 

[Selwyn]

I don't think you had ill intent - I think it's been the narrative all along where we say "let's follow the data" until we decide we don't want to follow the data, but we want to go to supposition instead. Especially if supposition is negative, because that's popular and will get views.

It's so prevalent (and anti-data) that it's become a semi-consensus or a stylish thing for people to say even if those people tend to try to make accurate statements only.

It's happened just about every time a variant pops up (UK, S.A., Brazil, now India), or when there's some tiny data point ("S.A. Variant 8 times more likely to break through pfizer vaccine!!" ....that story was based on a whopping 8 total cases vs. an expected 1).

I'm just not a fan of it.

The data is demonstrating an IFR of 0.14%. Ionaddis says about 0.15%.

There is no reason to think any of these "variants" are likely to radically change that. Obviously in a microcosm ie a care home, a hospital, a built up area the IFR will be higher

For people aged 20-50 the IFR is 0.03-0.05%. The is the basis for the injections. Its way ott above and beyond anything else we have used a vaccine for in the past, predicated on some dodgy modelling which has not been accurate even in places that didn't do any lockdowns

 

[Jonm]

The kent variant spread around the world in no time at all.

And it did it without any paperwork, perhaps it should give lessons to our shellfish exporters.

 

[alanpo68]

No need for ad hominem attacks.
It will sink in eventually that you have been totally played by all this. Lockdown hasn't proved a saving of a single life, but we do know what harm it has done.

Anyway how many people do you know who have died of Covid?

Please explain how the horrific situation in Italy in which their health system was overwhelmed was turned around if it wasn't through Lockdown ?

 

[RobinBHM]

Its absolute madness what we are doing to our country

In your opinion which is wrong.

 

[Rorschach]

In your opinion which is wrong.

As is your opinion

 

[RobinBHM]

What is childish about it?

Do you finally accept that the risk for under 25's is minute and incrementally it the risk is higher as you age. The risk of dying for a 80 year old is many times higher than an under 50. And even if you are 80 the risk is way less than 1 in 100. Statistics and data counts!

Whataboutery.

The NHS have set up many long Covid clinics....Which you childishly deny are needed

 

[RobinBHM]

As is your opinion

I don't post opinions, my posts are backed with facts.

 

[RobinBHM]

The lockdown wasn't necessary

In your uninformed opinion not backed up by fact.

And you are wrong.

 

[Rorschach]

In your uninformed opinion not backed up by fact.

And you are wrong.

He backed it up with facts, ONS facts, you just didn't accept them.

 

[RobinBHM]

e spread of the virus once its endemic

You keep claiming Covid is endemic.

Perhaps you aren't aware you are wrong.

'Covid-19 is still classed as in a pandemic phase because infections continue to increase worldwide and many people are still susceptible. In an endemic phase the number of infections becomes relatively constant across years, with occasional flare-ups"
https://www.google.co.uk/search?q=i...emic&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&hl=en-gb&client=safari

 

[RobinBHM]

As I said, I don't accept your evidence, just like you don't accept mine

It's not my evidence - it's from a respected source.

You haven't provided any evidence

 

[RobinBHM]

He backed it up with facts, ONS facts, you just didn't accept them.

He did not back up his post with facts.

Quoting ONS out of context is meaningless.

 

[RobinBHM]

The data is demonstrating an IFR of 0.14%

Thank goodness NPIs and full lockdowns kept it down to that?

how high would it have been with your preferred plan (actually you don't have one, your argument is lockdowns don't work, but you have no alternative)

 

[RobinBHM]

exponential growth for one

Infections do grow exponentially before the peak.....surely you know this by now.

The earlier the intervention the lower the peak.

If you can stamp down very early you can achieve elimination.

 

[Selwyn]

Thank goodness NPIs and full lockdowns kept it down to that?

how high would it have been with your preferred plan (actually you don't have one, your argument is lockdowns don't work, but you have no alternative)

Er, not everywhere locked down. Also there were differing "variants" of lockdown throughout the world.

The crucial blind spot you have is the assumption that people take zero precautions without a government mandated lockdown. Which is demonstrably untrue

 

[Selwyn]

Whataboutery.

The NHS have set up many long Covid clinics....Which you childishly deny are needed

Its not childish at all. We don't need special long covid clinics. We didn't even bother doing special covid hospitals - which genuinely may have helped.

Besides 24 million is just publicity stunt

Its really really important that you understand that the covid risk is wildly different for age groups. I'm still shocked this hasn't sunk in yet. When will you realise this?

 

[Selwyn]

Infections do grow exponentially before the peak.....surely you know this by now.

The earlier the intervention the lower the peak.

If you can stamp down very early you can achieve elimination.

No you can't achieve elimination.

It is your presumption that growth in covid increases exponentially but the fact it that it doesn't. It doesn't in places where there is no lockdown either - all virus' ebb and flow

 

[Selwyn]

You keep claiming Covid is endemic.

Perhaps you aren't aware you are wrong.

'Covid-19 is still classed as in a pandemic phase because infections continue to increase worldwide and many people are still susceptible. In an endemic phase the number of infections becomes relatively constant across years, with occasional flare-ups"
https://www.google.co.uk/search?q=i...emic&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&hl=en-gb&client=safari

Whataboutery

It is in endemic in the UK.