I wouldn't be swayed either way at present.
Historically it was 200, but given the talk and agreements, that knowledge will have impacts on future numbers. The shear knowledge of the decision will have an impact on decisions as to the why people arrive illegally, it may deter people, it may have no impact or it could encourage more to get there ASAP.
Only on observation of change now, can we start to determine within a statistical confidence interval as to which way it's going to go.
Anything else is pure finger in the air guesswork, and yes, one thing I do agree on, is that mass media love guessing without evidence, but state it in such a way as to imply they know something we don't, which generally results in total bulls carp...
Correction.
Arriving to claim asylum, no matter by what means, is not illegal.
Your mention of "illegally" - Is this a sign of a personal bias, I wonder?