Electric vehicles

[Agent_zed]

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I would agree that the current offering of EVs is not the solution to our transport needs as they are too big and rely on the grid for power.

But I have a problem with the second part of the statement as it depends what you are claiming is the 'problem that doesn't exist'.

If the problem is that oil is finite and is likely at current rates to run out in my lifetime then the problem definitely does exist. Unless you believe oil is infinite and we can just continue to extract forever?

 

[John Brown]

We presented our son with one of those Kids VIP electric ride-on cars and he asked me why I don't drive the same car
If seriously, I don't think that an EV can be suitable for towing (maybe for someone, Idk). Also, I've recently seen several YouTube videos about how EVs catch on fire and the firefighters find that they are very hard to put out once they start. This is because lithium-ion batteries burn hot and fast. To be honest, it looks frightening.

A study in Sweden showed ICEs were 20 times more likely to catch fire than EVs.
I'm not disputing the fact that they burn differently, and that firefighters may not be as familiar with battery fires as with oil or diesel fires.

 

[Agent_zed]

We presented our son with one of those Kids VIP electric ride-on cars and he asked me why I don't drive the same car
If seriously, I don't think that an EV can be suitable for towing (maybe for someone, Idk). Also, I've recently seen several YouTube videos about how EVs catch on fire and the firefighters find that they are very hard to put out once they start. This is because lithium-ion batteries burn hot and fast. To be honest, it looks frightening.

https://core.verisk.com/Insights/Em...2023/August/Week-4/Electric-Vehicle-Fire-Risk'According to one analysis of U.S. government data, EV fires appear to occur less frequently than ICE vehicles, with 25.1 fires for every 100,000 vehicles sold compared to 1,529 fires for ICE vehicles. (Hybrids, interestingly, appear to catch fire most frequently, perhaps a result of the battery pack being adjacent to a combustion engine.) Data from the Swedish government and a major EV vendor appears to support this general assessment.'

They may burn hot and fast but it would seem they are less likely to catch on fire to start with.

I like to imagine the reverse though, if we had started with electric vehicles and then we tried to convince people to fill their cars with highly flammable liquid how many people would have said 'yeah that's a better idea'

 

[Jacob]

Personally I don't there is a future for battery EVs, except for short runs, local deliveries etc. with low-tech safer batteries.
In fact personal transport will be the least of our problems as climate change arrives.
The end of the private car. Shouldn't be too upsetting, it's only been with us, on any scale, for one or two generations. One generation really - there were no car owners or cars parked on our street when ar worra lad. My dad didn't have one until about 1954

 

[Fitzroy]

There are a few 4x4 electric vehicles coming out (https://www.fleetcarma.com/electric-pic ... ck-market/) and the mainstream manufacturers are all working on it, although battery life will be an issue for a couple of years yet. But that <<should>> solve the caravan and towing market. Maybe.

The UK consumed 47.1 billion litres of petrol/diesel in 2018. If you say petrol and diesel both contain the same amount of energy - 10kWh/litre (it's close enough for ***-packet calculations, but they don't), then that would equate to 471 billion kWh of new electricity required annually, in the new, green economy. Given the inefficiency of battery storage, it will need to be more than that, but never mind. If you pretend that the energy will be delivered evenly, 24 hours per day, then you need an extra 1.2 billion kWh per day. Sounds like a lot. A billion kWh is, I think, one TerraWatt hour (10¹² Watts), and the average nuclear power station puts out, let's say, 1,000 MWh, or one GigaWatt. You need 1,000 GigaWatts to make a TerraWatt, so the UK will need one thousand nuclear reactors, or equivalent solar/wind/wave installations, all running 24/7. No problem.

The above is just me thinking out loud, and I may have lost track of zeros, so feel free to put me right on the maths.

Feel bad responding to a post from Feb 2020 but after @Ozi responded I was interested in the original maths. Having reviewed it I can confirm that it is erroneous.

47 billion litres per year at 45MJ/kg, 0.75kg/litre, and 3.6MJ/kWhr equates to 4.4 kwhr/yr with 8760hrs per year this equates to 50GW of continuous fuel usage.

The other factor you need is the tank to wheels efficiency of internal combustion engine and an electric vehicle, an ICE is pretty poor at turning fuel energy into wheels energy at about 20% (average across UK fleet) compared to electric at 70%.

So you would need c. 14.4GW of power generation, Sizewell C is 3.2GW so you would need 4.5 of them. Installed wind capacity in UK has grown from 0.9GW to13.9GW between 2009 and 2022, so approximately you would need to do this again to provide sufficient power to offset petrol and diesel usage.

A bit of searching around online and articles discuss needing from 8GW (low) to 18GW(high) of additional generation to remove all road vehicles. The articles also discuss that generation in only one part of the problem, distribution and charging networks also require upgrade/deployment.

F.

 

[Fitzroy]

Personally I don't there is a future for battery EVs, except for short runs, local deliveries etc. with low-tech safer batteries.
In fact personal transport will be the least of our problems as climate change arrives.
The end of the private car. Shouldn't be too upsetting, it's only been with us, on any scale, for one or two generations.

why no future in battery EVs except short runs?

End of the private car, totally agree with that, most cars spend only 5% of their time actually driving somewhere. How much nicer would our streets be with 90% less cars parked doing nothing. Solutions like Uber with large fleets of self driving electric vehicles will I think be the norm for my grandkids, rather than having a £50k asset sat depreciating and doing nothing 95% of the time.

 

[Jacob]

why no future in battery EVs except short runs?

Charging capacity. Batteries are fundamentally inefficient compared to EVs powered by pick-up from rails/cables above or below, in the old fashioned way. Also because of the added weight of the battery.

End of the private car, totally agree with that, most cars spend only 5% of their time actually driving somewhere. How much nicer would our streets be with 90% less cars parked doing nothing. Solutions like Uber with large fleets of self driving electric vehicles will I think be the norm for my grandkids, rather than having a £50k asset sat depreciating and doing nothing 95% of the time.

Or better public transport. Zero self drive except where essential.

 

[Trainee neophyte]

Feel bad responding to a post from Feb 2020 but after @Ozi responded I was interested in the original maths. Having reviewed it I can confirm that it is erroneous.

47 billion litres per year at 45MJ/kg, 0.75kg/litre, and 3.6MJ/kWhr equates to 4.4 kwhr/yr with 8760hrs per year this equates to 50GW of continuous fuel usage.

The other factor you need is the tank to wheels efficiency of internal combustion engine and an electric vehicle, an ICE is pretty poor at turning fuel energy into wheels energy at about 20% (average across UK fleet) compared to electric at 70%.

So you would need c. 14.4GW of power generation, Sizewell C is 3.2GW so you would need 4.5 of them. Installed wind capacity in UK has grown from 0.9GW to13.9GW between 2009 and 2022, so approximately you would need to do this again to provide sufficient power to offset petrol and diesel usage.

A bit of searching around online and articles discuss needing from 8GW (low) to 18GW(high) of additional generation to remove all road vehicles. The articles also discuss that generation in only one part of the problem, distribution and charging networks also require upgrade/deployment.

F.

Thank you for being so polite in pointing out my error. In fairness, I was young and naive - I'm so much more experienced now ;-)

Interesting that in the last 3 years batteries have become much cheaper - to the extent that I am toying with installing a 10kwh battery charged by solar panels to go off grid as much as possible. In 2020 that would have been impossible to contemplate, let alone afford.

Weirdly, I am also thinking about (I.e considering at some point in the future - not now) getting an electric shopping trolley style car, not because it will do what I want, but because it will allow me some level of independence from oil embargoes, wars, pipeline sabotage and other insanities that appear to be the new normal.

Now, back to hibernation.

 

[Spectric]

The whole issue of EV's is that fundermentally it sounds a good idea on paper but rather than make the huge jump from ICE to EV which is just far to big a jump we need to get there in logical steps. The current idea is just going to cause too many issues with our electrical infrastructure, refineries and jobs so make the first step a big reduction in the consumption of petroleum based fuel by going hybrid but one where there is no mechanical link from the ICE to the wheels, rather the ICE drives a generator much like a locomotive. Now you can have far more fuel efficient ICE's because they are there only to keep the battery topped up and maybe provide extra power when needed. Now no issues with home chargers, queueing to access a charger and then waiting for it to charge. Now you have a breathing space in which technology can work towards the all electric EV.

 

[Terry - Somerset]

For many post war baby boomers the car embodied freedom, control, status, etc. "Petrol head" was completely apposite. I count myself amongst them.

The world has moved on - environmental issues, greater urban populations, internet, online shopping, battery technologies, etc.

Changes will not be immediate - but looking forward (say) 15 years:

• burning limited irreplaceable fossil fuels when there is a workable alternative makes no sense
• electric vehicles will become the norm. Internal combustion will remain for some specialised applications and until ultimately scrapped. New ICE will be unavailable
• EV will increase in range, reduce in cost, and recharge more quickly than currently. They will be entirely suitable for 95%+ of households
• increasing power generation and distribution capacity to match increased electricity demand needs a clear plan but is entirely feasible.
• online shopping, work from home will reduce the requirement for personal transport
• private car ownership in urban areas will increasingly be seen as an expensive overhead
• in urban areas autonomous vehicles summoned by smartphone app take over
• rural areas and small towns, where transport over longer distances is often required, may still prioritise personal ownership

Inevitably some will either disagree or whose lifestyle make transition to EV difficult. There is little sense in making the rules work for the <5% which could potentially compromise a transition.

 

[Jameshow]

Personally I don't there is a future for battery EVs, except for short runs, local deliveries etc. with low-tech safer batteries.
In fact personal transport will be the least of our problems as climate change arrives.
The end of the private car. Shouldn't be too upsetting, it's only been with us, on any scale, for one or two generations. One generation really - there were no car owners or cars parked on our street when ar worra lad. My dad didn't have one until about 1954

You must have very long lived family a generation is 30yrs max!!

 

[Jacob]

You must have very long lived family a generation is 30yrs max!!

I was thinking of my generation - empty streets when I was a kid.

 

[treeturner123]

Like a good many contributors, I work. In my case as a Building Project Manager so I have a number of small to medium sized projects o-going at any one time. I travel to each at least every other week for meetings, inspections etc.

When I was based in London I could get round 3 sites in a day using public transport. However, if more than one was 'South of the River' it was more challenging as there are no tubes running E to W there!

Now I live in the country and my projects are spread over 3-4 counties so, if I used public transport I could only get to 1 a day so my productivity would fall hugely. Even if I lived in a nearby town, I would still struggle to get to more than 1 a day. I have occasions where I am called out to an urgent situation.

So what is my best means of transport?

Most projects have no electricity yet
Many are miles apart
There is no easy Public Transport
There is no car share and anyway, I might not be able to book at the last min for emergencies

So I have just bought yet another diesel car. Taking ALL things into consideration, cost of construction, length of service (my last Skoda finally had to go at 243,000 miles), ease and cost of service and parts plus fuel efficiency, more than 55mpg on longer runs, it seemed the best idea for me

Phil

 

[cmoops2]

For many post war baby boomers the car embodied freedom, control, status, etc. "Petrol head" was completely apposite. I count myself amongst them.

The world has moved on - environmental issues, greater urban populations, internet, online shopping, battery technologies, etc.

Changes will not be immediate - but looking forward (say) 15 years:

• burning limited irreplaceable fossil fuels when there is a workable alternative makes no sense
• electric vehicles will become the norm. Internal combustion will remain for some specialised applications and until ultimately scrapped. New ICE will be unavailable
• EV will increase in range, reduce in cost, and recharge more quickly than currently. They will be entirely suitable for 95%+ of households
• increasing power generation and distribution capacity to match increased electricity demand needs a clear plan but is entirely feasible.
• online shopping, work from home will reduce the requirement for personal transport
• private car ownership in urban areas will increasingly be seen as an expensive overhead
• in urban areas autonomous vehicles summoned by smartphone app take over
• rural areas and small towns, where transport over longer distances is often required, may still prioritise personal ownership

Inevitably some will either disagree or whose lifestyle make transition to EV difficult. There is little sense in making the rules work for the <5% which could potentially compromise a transition.

Re your third bullet point - could you explain how EV's will 'increase in range' and 'recharge more quickly than currently' ?

 

[cmoops2]

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This Ted Talk presents a good way forward (and debunks a lot of the hype and bull***t):

 

[Jacob]

Like a good many contributors, I work. In my case as a Building Project Manager so I have a number of small to medium sized projects o-going at any one time. I travel to each at least every other week for meetings, inspections etc.

When I was based in London I could get round 3 sites in a day using public transport. However, if more than one was 'South of the River' it was more challenging as there are no tubes running E to W there!

Now I live in the country and my projects are spread over 3-4 counties so, if I used public transport I could only get to 1 a day so my productivity would fall hugely. Even if I lived in a nearby town, I would still struggle to get to more than 1 a day. I have occasions where I am called out to an urgent situation.

So what is my best means of transport?

Most projects have no electricity yet
Many are miles apart
There is no easy Public Transport
There is no car share and anyway, I might not be able to book at the last min for emergencies

So I have just bought yet another diesel car. Taking ALL things into consideration, cost of construction, length of service (my last Skoda finally had to go at 243,000 miles), ease and cost of service and parts plus fuel efficiency, more than 55mpg on longer runs, it seemed the best idea for me

Phil

Well yes and we're all in the same boat. Mine's a cheap to buy/run diesel too. But the world is changing and they way we work/travel is going to be changed, whether we like it or not.
The big hope is that EVs could mean no change and that we could carry on as we are, but I think it's a delusion.
Man in vid above is explaining why to a large extent and reckons that producing ethanol and hydrogen as fuels could be lower CO2 footprint than batteries, using sustainably generated electricity. He doesn't mention the carbon footprint of the generating infrastructure but sounds good idea anyway.
Personally I think it's too late and we are all up s**t creek.
Currently our govt and opposition are backing off on CC moves and speeding up our retreat to the dark ages. 2023 on track to be the hottest year on record, say scientists
https://www.theguardian.com/environ...ystem-collapse-within-50-years-study-says-aoe

 

[RogerS]

why no future in battery EVs except short runs?

End of the private car, totally agree with that, most cars spend only 5% of their time actually driving somewhere. How much nicer would our streets be with 90% less cars parked doing nothing. Solutions like Uber with large fleets of self driving electric vehicles will I think be the norm for my grandkids, rather than having a £50k asset sat depreciating and doing nothing 95% of the time.

Agreed. Private cars in a city or town not necessarily needed. Unless you need to drive to another town perhaps. Or even further afield. Public transport just isn't there.

But what about the rural population ?

And don't even think about selling your EV Used electric car prices plunge in March - some EVs are down 30%

And 'Youand Yours' recently had a programme on EV's where many owners either didn't use them or wished they hadn't got them. Little niggles like queuing for an hour at a motorway service station to get a charge point.

 

[treeturner123]

Agreed. Private cars in a city or town not necessarily needed. Unless you need to drive to another town perhaps. Or even further afield. Public transport just isn't there.

But what about the rural population ?

And don't even think about selling your EV Used electric car prices plunge in March - some EVs are down 30%

And 'Youand Yours' recently had a programme on EV's where many owners either didn't use them or wished they hadn't got them. Little niggles like queuing for an hour at a motorway service station to get a charge point.

Yes Roger, numbers and capacity to charge quickly is the real issue.

Has no one in the government, civil service, climate change people etc, gone down the M5 to Devon/Cornwall on a bank holiday!! There are queues already for fuel and it only takes 5 mins to fill and pay!!

Phil

 

[RogerS]

And it is bizarre the over-supply in other areas. For example, Haltwhistle in Northumberland has, at the last count 7 or 8. I've never seen one used. Perhaps it's to cater for the rich folk from the South coming up here on holiday.

 

[Vulcan]

Re your third bullet point - could you explain how EV's will 'increase in range' and 'recharge more quickly than

I’m not sure I understand your question but we’re still in the relatively early stages of vehicle battery development.
Volkswagen have recently said the same as Toyota.

Toyota Promises EVs With 10-Minute Recharging And 600-Mile Range From 2027

I don’t have a link but I read China have some pretty fast chargers already, faster than the Tesla Supercharger.