Coronavirus

[Woody2Shoes]

One of the reasons I think it's not easy/helpful to compare Covid with flu is that we have - and have had for some time - a programme of vaccination (I'm pretty up-to-date with my flu jabs). Some years, the forecast of which strains will be prevalent turns out to be less accurate - a bit like playing 'battleships' with a large time delay - which probably helps to explain why some flu years are better than others - I'm sure there are lots of other factors too, like weather-driven air quality/temp./etc/etc.

The best interpretation of the stats from China and Italy - for folks in "our" demographic (I'm assuming UKW peeps are older and maler than the average) - that I've seen, is that C19 is probably at least an order of magnitude more lethal than seasonal flu.

The only real influence over that level of that lethality (whatever it really is) is ensuring access to intensive medical care - given that no-one's yet found much else that works to prevent/weaken the virus - hence the desire to 'flatten the curve' so that such facilities can keep up with demand. I only survived double pneumonia - a terrifying experience - a decade or so ago because I had access to an ICU bed, staffed by experts (that, and the IV antibiotics worked!).

Let's not forget that we also have/had flu circulating amongst us over recent weeks as normal.

 

[user22161]

This winter season, we may well see a drop in flue deaths as the virus got them first. Although I'm in the danger age group (73 and 60 year smoker) I am still far more worried about the consequential effects on society rather than the actual virus. Have lost 4 friends over the past 3 weeks but only one of them from Covid, the others from cancer, stroke and sell-by date.

 

[RogerS]

This winter season, we may well see a drop in flue deaths as the virus got them first. Although I'm in the danger age group (73 and 60 year smoker) I am still far more worried about the consequential effects on society rather than the actual virus. Have lost 4 friends over the past 3 weeks but only one of them from Covid, the others from cancer, stroke and sell-by date.

The families of 7000+ people might have a different view. And in the space of a few weeks.

 

[user22161]

The families of 7000+ people might have a different view. And in the space of a few weeks.

Understandably, many families and friends will be totally devastated and I'm not trying to ignore that pain. Many millions have been effected in other ways and for tens of thousands there will be/have been life changing consequences.

 

[beech1948]

.........The UK needs to man up and get out there to test 75 million people and to get it done rapidly say over 3 months. Any and all anti-testing rhetoric is simply illogical bs.........

Firstly, are we going to be testing in say France to make up the additional 7.2 million? The UK population is 67.8 million.

Secondly, there is no point in testing people to see if they've got the virus if they've already had it......and there isn't yet a test to show if you've had it but don't have it now.

Finally, everyone will completely and utterly forget about testing if a vaccine or simple drug treatment becomes available.

Thanks for correction re 75m souls in the UK.

Office of National Stats says 66,435,000 as of today
Worldometers says 67,805,347 as of April 9th..today.

As to testing the 7.2 m French I do not care enough to comment other than to say they would not test the English and within that attitude is my answer.

 

[Just4Fun]

This winter season, we may well see a drop in flue deaths as the virus got them first.

I am told anecdotally that over here (Finland) the number of flu cases is indeed lower than normal. One explanation put forward for this is that all the extra cleanliness, isolation etc to guard against coronavirus also reduces the spread of flu. That sounds reasonable to me.

 

[Keith 66]

Well its getting a bit more real for us, a bloke i used to know died of it two weeks ago & a good friend from the yacht club died of it in east london a day ago. Both were about 60 years old.

 

[heimlaga]

This winter season, we may well see a drop in flue deaths as the virus got them first.

I am told anecdotally that over here (Finland) the number of flu cases is indeed lower than normal. One explanation put forward for this is that all the extra cleanliness, isolation etc to guard against coronavirus also reduces the spread of flu. That sounds reasonable to me.

I saw that too in our local newspaper Vasabladet.
Finland has rather extensive restrictions and got then set up at an early stage. To me the reduction in influenza cases seems like a proof that our restrictions work. They say influenza spreads easier than covid 19 and if that is true the restrictions should have even greater impact in it.

 

[Bodgers]

This winter season, we may well see a drop in flue deaths as the virus got them first.

I am told anecdotally that over here (Finland) the number of flu cases is indeed lower than normal. One explanation put forward for this is that all the extra cleanliness, isolation etc to guard against coronavirus also reduces the spread of flu. That sounds reasonable to me.

I saw that too in our local newspaper Vasabladet.
Finland has rather extensive restrictions and got then set up at an early stage. To me the reduction in influenza cases seems like a proof that our restrictions work. They say influenza spreads easier than covid 19 and if that is true the restrictions should have even greater impact in it.

Nope - reproduction number for Coronavirus is 2-2.5. For H1N1 flu It was 1.4-1.6.

Source: WHO.

One of the reasons why we most of us are sat at home is because it is so contagious.

 

[Andy Kev.]

This is from today's Daily Telegraph:

Scientists studying the town at the epicentre of Germany's first major outbreak said they had found antibodies to the virus in people who had shown no symptoms and were not previously thought to have been infected.

Initial results released on Thursday suggest as many as 15 per cent of the town may already have immunity — three times as many as previous estimates.

The findings suggest the mortality rate for the virus in Germany is just 0.37 per cent — five times lower than current estimates.

Clearly it is still early days but that sounds realistic to me and more plausible than some of the mass mortality fears. As the results of more studies come in, conclusions will be more solid and we will finally be in a position to assess the effects of this virus sensibly.

 

[Jake]

Clearly it is still early days but that sounds realistic to me and more plausible than some of the mass mortality fears.

I sincerely hope that confirmation bias turns out well placed, as this pre-print study is potentially good news (and vastly more reassuring than experiences in Italian communities where a large % of population ended up infected).

 

[user22161]

On the brighter side, road, industrial and construction deaths are well down and talking to a nurse, it seems most of the run-of-the-mill emergency patients are so scared of catching something there, they're learning pull their own splinters out.

 

[Lons]

it seems most of the run-of-the-mill emergency patients are so scared of catching something there, they're learning pull their own splinters out.

But the flip side Graham is that other surgery is well down as well, partly because patients are cancelling as they're scared of catching the virus in hospital and others like a friend who was due to have treatment for prostrate cancer. The treatment is postponed but the cancer won't know that. My wife has an important consultation scheduled for early May and that now appears to be in doubt as well.

Talking this morning to a friend who lives on the outskirts of Newcastle and he says the difference in air quality is very noticeable. That said we back on to a main road to the Scottish Borders and there were quite a lot of cars on that road today!

 

[MikeG.]

"x percent of the population have coronavirus asymptomatically" is something we hear quite a lot. No doubt there is something in this, and we'll find out how big a deal it is once there is widespread testing of the general population (not just the hospital population). However, I wonder how many of those claims come from people who were tested just after they caught the virus but before any symptoms began to develop. Kenny Dalglish, for instance, has just been tested (he was in hospital for something else) and found to have Covid 19. The news described him as asymptomatic. Well, I was asymptomatic for 5 days, as are most people who go down with this bug. It's one of the reasons it is so hard to control the spread. It is perfectly possible that Dalglish won't develop the disease, but equally, he well might.

 

[rafezetter]

I'm not saying that their thinking is any different and at no point in my post did I suggest that, what I am saying is that unless there is a major change in attitude, the government's good intentions will be thwarted and the economy will be in ruins, and I mean ruins of biblical proportions.

like I said - worked for them before.

I'm reminded of a quote from the end of the film series "The Matrix" where Neo is talking to the head honcho and Neo tells them that the machines will have to pull back and reduce and the head honcho says "there are levels of survivability we are willing to accept, as long as we survive".

Banks will always survive, because they know we cannot function as a society without them, they made sure of it - biblical proportions or otherwise.

Banking and funeral parlours are about the only 2 types of business that would survive almost anything short of an apocalypse.

Nothing will change in their thinking without a major govt intervention and possibly forced nationalisation.

 

[MikeG.]

.......Nothing will change in their thinking without a major govt intervention and possibly forced nationalisation.

I'd suggest forced mutualisation. Offer them the choice of becoming mutuals, or becoming non-profit organisations with statutory salary and bonus caps. At the moment they get profit without risk, knowing that the tax payer will always bail them out if they stuff up.

 

[rafezetter]

I do mind (although the portion of people doing this would be miniscule) but I certainly wouldn't be saying they need to be killed by a stranger for doing it.

So if you don't condone an instant bullet between the eyes (which btw I'm 100% with RogerS on that) what would YOU do with such a person who willingly infects another human being with a life threatening virus?

Arrest and jailing is not a deterrant against crime - because if it were, most countries would have low crime rates, instead of overstuffed prisons.

A fine? They've got to have the money first and I'd dare say at the risk of generalising that that kind of scum won't have any.

Turn them into a labourforce work gang? Still requires a prison and costs the taxpayer £38,000 per year EACH, or £11,000 MORE than the claimed average UK wage.

A bullet is humane for them (because frankly my chosen method of deterrant would be far worse), and cheap for us; after a few dozen of those, filmed and made public - people might actually not do it - you know like an actual WORKING DETERRANT.

This is our first major pandemic in living memory, but for our young children very probably won't be thier last, so lessons learned - or not - will shape thier future.

Personally I think one of the reasons we are in this mess is liberalism - in times of peace liberalism can have it's place, but in times of war, and make no mistake this IS a war, liberalism can, and has, killed people.

I think the problem is that we in the western world generally have, in material terms, soft and easy lives. Our justice system has also become very soft. A couple of centuries ago you would receive the most dire punishment for e.g. theft. This was rightly recognised as being too harsh on people who often were so destitute that they had no alternative to crime.

I've thought for some time that for some crimes we need to have the option of sentences which carry a degree of brutality as these would be proportionately more effective against people used to a soft life. For offences like the one in question, which are utterly unprovoked, potentially deadly and which can only regarded as being "recreational", I would have thought that severe and extremely painful (possibly public) floggings would be the answer. The stocks could be available for lesser offences like vandalism. Such sentences would be quick, cheap to administer and, I imagine, highly effective in their deterrent influence.

I realise that such a view will provoke outrage from some but I think it worthy of serious consideration. FWIW I want to see a society where people are kind, polite and considerate of their fellows. It might seem odd to resort to such recommendations for dealing with the extreme fringes of civil behaviour.

I realise that this is somewhat off topic but corona is giving rise to a number of side issues.

ok yup a flogging - I could go with that, but the person who was spat at, or a delegated family member (prefereably the largets and strongest) gets to administer it.

with a cat o'nine tails.

dipped in honey and broken glass is optional, dealers choice.

(ahahaha I've suddenly got this mental playthrough of a scene from a film where this is going on, but the person doing the flogging has bowls of gummie bears and sprinkles... possibly one of those mickey take films of rambo or topgun with Charlie Sheen... fluffy bunny feet. - wierd).

we REALLY don't want to have to do this more than a handful of times so the deterrant has to be the kind that leaves those sentenced to it screaming for mercy - otherewise it's not a deterrant.

 

[rafezetter]

.......Nothing will change in their thinking without a major govt intervention and possibly forced nationalisation.

I'd suggest forced mutualisation. Offer them the choice of becoming mutuals, or becoming non-profit organisations with statutory salary and bonus caps. At the moment they get profit without risk, knowing that the tax payer will always bail them out if they stuff up.

Bloody hell MikeG - forced mutilation, thats a bit strong isn't it? Even for me and I'm a fairly unforgiving guy of A-holes... wait..... mutualisation..... ahhhh

 

[Blackswanwood]

At the moment they get profit without risk, knowing that the tax payer will always bail them out if they stuff up.

That's wholly inaccurate. The PRA have far more intrusive powers than were in existence at the time of the banking crisis and they use them to make sure this does not happen. Directors and Senior Executives are also personally accountable for decisions they take - something that has been introduced in recent years. I'd be the first to highlight shortcomings in the banking system but to say banking is a one way bet is a long way off the mark.

 

[rafezetter]

Hmmmm, people who called me offensive and disgusting for my views that there are some corrupt and power mad Police (admitted true byt the Police themselves last week) are the same people who seem to think capital punishment and vigilante murder are perfectly acceptable. What a topsy turvy world we live in.

nope not me - I know there are corrupt and power mad police - It's been my unfortunate pleasure met several who were more interested in "we are going to nail him to the wall" than acutal justice.

or the other one that wanted me to go for a pysche eval for having a knife found in my locker at work - wasn't interested in the fact my then GF had threatened to commit suicide with it that morning right before leaving for work - OR the fact that it was an illegal search.

nope, I'm right with you on that one, people are people and a uniform doesn't change that (or a suit).