Coronavirus

[Lons]

I'm more confirmed than ever in my view that we won't be able to talk sensibly about this disease until it has all died down.

Yep!
We're on 100 pages of arguments and opinions that in reality matter not one jot. We will never know the true extent of numbers affected as it will not be practical or affordable to test the whole UK population for antibodies so will be an estimate based on sample numbers.

The one thing that matters at the minute is that it's here and it's serious, the virus is killing a thousands of people directly and indirectly and no-one is safe, we all have already or are likely to lose family members, friends, neighbours, colleagues or at very least people we know and those who don't believe that and deliberately flout the rules. I'll be staying well away from all of them for as long as is physically possible.
I for one am comfortable that the government, scientists and medics are working flat out to get on top of it and the inquisition on how things were handled can come at the right time at the end of this war.

Just as an aside, I learned yesterday from a friend involved that they're parking up freezer lorries to store bodies. This is local but I'd guess it has happened nationally.
A sobering thought! :shock:

 

[sploo]

There are international health statisticians pouring over the Chinese figures, and they haven't found any obvious flaws. The Wuhan lockdown has been lifted. Now, whether or not there are remnant cases, there clearly is no ongoing epidemic...and the point is, Sam just said achieving anything at all against this virus is impossible because we don't have tests, accurate figures, and a plan. He is flat out wrong on the claim that it can't be beaten without those things, even if he is right (and he isn't) that we don't have figures, plans and tests.

It'll be interesting to see how that goes; point being - unless there's become huge herd immunity in that area, then as soon as lockdowns are lifted you start the process of infection again. The virus itself is still present (in "the world") so it's inevitable that people will catch it.

Until there is either significant acquired herd immunity (something that would likely come at the cost of large number of deaths) or a vaccine is developed, then it'll continue to be a threat.

 

[MikeG.]

They still have isolation and social distancing in force, and a rigorous follow up of all contacts with new cases. What has been lifted is the complete ban on travel to and from the city, and the closing of all businesses which are now being opened up in a phased manner. In other words, it's very far from business as usual, but it is indicative of a startling success in turning the infection rate and death figures around. And to reiterate, this has been done without those things Sam said were necessary to defeat the virus.

 

[SammyQ]

And yet the Chinese have managed to wipe it out entirely.

Mike, the official Chinese figures are treated with some scepticism to put it mildly. May I also point out "to wipe it out entirely" implies a vaccine or cure is in their hands? What I think you are referring to is that they have managed to contain it? Agreed. They did so with a degree of people tracking and whole community (e.g. apartment blocks = "community") isolation that we have not managed. Nor would I wish that degree of 'Big Brother' to be visited upon us.
Thirdly, although:

The Wuhan lockdown has been lifted. Now, whether or not there are remnant cases, there clearly is no ongoing epidemic

If that were true, the Chinese authorities would NOT be testing, testing, testing incoming visitors at airports etc. Clearly, they are fearing an upsurge in cases imported into China.
But, and it's crucial that we do so, we must track this disease and prevent it's spread until a vacine/cure becomes available. To do so we must "test, test, test". Spotting a source and isolating it, is our best policy for avoiding mass infection until a vacine becomes available. Antigen (potential to infect) and antibody (have you - unknowingly perhaps - had the disease? ) are both necessary to mapping the spread. 60 million people in U.K., you do the maths.
Having established where, and how much, you can then target your resources effectively. This is a paraphrasing of 'standard' epidemiological procedure to deal with infectious diseases.
Sam

 

[MikeG.]

......... (have you - unknowingly perhaps - had the disease? ).......

:lol: :lol: No, I bloody-well knew it. :lol:

Sam, your basic point was that it is impossible to succeed against this virus without tests it is impossible to plan, strategise and eradicate this disease. That's overstating it, as the Chinese have shown. As the Italians are showing. As the Spanish are showing. As I have no doubt we'll be showing within 10 days or so.

 

[SammyQ]

Mike, I so hope you are right. Whatever works is fine in my book; I have no problem being proved wrong with this pestilence.

Sam

 

[sploo]

I think this depends on what we mean by "beat". A full lockdown will definitely be effective; but only until the lockdown is ended. That is, unless we could achieve a lockdown so complete that anyone who's caught it either passes away or recovers (and is no longer infectious to others) - such that there's now no one in the population that has it. Not impossible, but probably optimistic.

 

[Jake]

Sam, your basic point was that it is impossible to succeed against this virus without tests it is impossible to plan, strategise and eradicate this disease. That's overstating it, as the Chinese have shown. As the Italians are showing. As the Spanish are showing. As I have no doubt we'll be showing within 10 days or so.

The point is that if/when lock down is successful in suppressing new cases, you have an opportunity to pursue containment again (or for a first time with any real effort), which needs contact tracing and testing to isolate spreaders.

I think our government might be planning not to do that, but to use hospital demand as the trigger for loosening/tightening restrictions in waves, but that's speculative.

Although there was a great deal of publicity around lifting the Wuhan lock-down, the Chinese locked down a county in another province a week or so ago. They are reported to be aggressively contact tracing there (although SMCP does not appear to serve the full page anymore to me at at least).
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society ... s-get-back
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society ... s-carriers

 

[Jake]

Interesting and potentially positive (although early days) article from one of the better news sources on COVID.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/08/doc ... -covid-19/

 

[beech1948]

So sitting here today in my almost abandoned business I ask myself "What is the desired end game for all this lock down stuff"

1) I am 72 so I am at risk and keeping very much to my self. My business would collapse if I were not around to keep it going. Not that I am indispensable merely that only I care enough to keep it going.
2) Until there is a vaccine available then this disease will not be killed off and I am still vulnerable
3) Masks are only a tiny help and probably not worth much
4) If there is no vaccine until 2021 then I will have to endure 12 months and possibly longer of lock down.
5) Businesses being allowed to resume doing biz seems to be a negative gamble by the Government....the incidence of the disease will simply rapidly increase again if no vaccine
6) China claims of "winning" the battle are false as they will suffer the re-infection cycle as will many other countries. China has shown itself to be unreliable as to figures and claims. A parasite.
7) A way out is testing. The UK needs to man up and get out there to test 75 million people and to get it done rapidly say over 3 months. Any and all anti-testing rhetoric is simply illogical bs.
8) Having tested the nation then this needs to recur every 3 months for maybe 12 months.
9) Costs of testing are high but so is the likely final death toll.

Chances of the politico's seeing the truth of this is about zero leaving me with few options.

 

[MusicMan]

The Reuters report on the scientific advice etc is quite interesting:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-heal ... abRHCzQ9n0

 

[MusicMan]

So sitting here today in my almost abandoned business I ask myself "What is the desired end game for all this lock down stuff"

1) I am 72 so I am at risk and keeping very much to my self. My business would collapse if I were not around to keep it going. Not that I am indispensable merely that only I care enough to keep it going.
2) Until there is a vaccine available then this disease will not be killed off and I am still vulnerable
3) Masks are only a tiny help and probably not worth much
4) If there is no vaccine until 2021 then I will have to endure 12 months and possibly longer of lock down.
5) Businesses being allowed to resume doing biz seems to be a negative gamble by the Government....the incidence of the disease will simply rapidly increase again if no vaccine
6) China claims of "winning" the battle are false as they will suffer the re-infection cycle as will many other countries. China has shown itself to be unreliable as to figures and claims. A parasite.
7) A way out is testing. The UK needs to man up and get out there to test 75 million people and to get it done rapidly say over 3 months. Any and all anti-testing rhetoric is simply illogical bs.
8) Having tested the nation then this needs to recur every 3 months for maybe 12 months.
9) Costs of testing are high but so is the likely final death toll.

Chances of the politico's seeing the truth of this is about zero leaving me with few options.

I agree with all of this and am likewise preparing for a long lockdown for us old and immune-compromised folk. The younger ones may be released earlier.

There are several ways of exiting from lockdown. The models for how best to do this are rudimentary at the moment, but a very large effort by hundreds (if not thousands) of modelling scientists from every discipline has just started (see that Reuters article in my previous post). This is not too late, but actually quite early, because the data are still lacking, and will be until the mass testing program Beech mentions is well under way. In the meantime we have to estimate parameters from data from Germany and other countries, which have somewhat different conditions. Testing is not itself a way out, but enables us to discover the best way out.

 

[user22161]

Well, the situation has just been brought home to me. A friend's wife phoned this morning to tell me he's died in hospital from the virus after being admitted for another complaint. He caught it there so, take extra care to not visit casualty, it may be kill rather than cure!

 

[RogerS]

Well, I'm a year younger than Beech and although retired have a millstone around my neck which is renovating this damn house. With the lockdown in place, it's very difficult to plan and source materials as everyone else is finding.

Am I worried about catching it ? Not really. If the worst comes to the worst, I've got oddles of life-cover - put in place long before Covid-19 and confirmed that Covid-19 has no bearing on any claim. Enough for SWMBO to get someone in to finish it off so she can sell up as it's not an 'easy' house to live in. And in a perverse kind of way, catching it would be a relief. No more 'will I, won't I'. Just as long as I don't infect anyone else.

It does focus the mind though. To that end, in the safe, is a sheet with all my passwords and details of all my bank accounts, savings accounts, credit cards etc. So even if I fall under a bus tomorrow, she'll be able to pick up the reins.

 

[sploo]

Well, the situation has just been brought home to me. A friend's wife phoned this morning to tell me he's died in hospital from the virus after being admitted for another complaint. He caught it there so, take extra care to not visit casualty, it may be kill rather than cure!

Very sorry to hear Graham. A friend of mine ended up in hospital with it (ICU etc). Fortunately he's pulled through and is home now; though still rather unwell. It's all too real isn't it.

 

[D_W]

They still have isolation and social distancing in force, and a rigorous follow up of all contacts with new cases. What has been lifted is the complete ban on travel to and from the city, and the closing of all businesses which are now being opened up in a phased manner. In other words, it's very far from business as usual, but it is indicative of a startling success in turning the infection rate and death figures around. And to reiterate, this has been done without those things Sam said were necessary to defeat the virus.

They also have the ability to curate a message ( so even if they have 100 deaths per day somewhere due to covid, their published number can be zero.)

Any questioning of information is grounds for disappearance. Tied in with that is extreme efficiency in convincing citizens that adherence leads to safety, and questioning leads to a potential lack of the same.

Anyone who allows travelers into a country anywhere is at risk of this starting an outbreak within days or weeks until it becomes old hat due to all of us or most of us having antibodies. Even iran is taking pot shots at china over their claims.

 

[MikeG.]

.........The UK needs to man up and get out there to test 75 million people and to get it done rapidly say over 3 months. Any and all anti-testing rhetoric is simply illogical bs.........

Firstly, are we going to be testing in say France to make up the additional 7.2 million? The UK population is 67.8 million.

Secondly, there is no point in testing people to see if they've got the virus if they've already had it......and there isn't yet a test to show if you've had it but don't have it now.

Finally, everyone will completely and utterly forget about testing if a vaccine or simple drug treatment becomes available.

 

[MusicMan]

.........The UK needs to man up and get out there to test 75 million people and to get it done rapidly say over 3 months. Any and all anti-testing rhetoric is simply illogical bs.........

Firstly, are we going to be testing in say France to make up the additional 7.2 million? The UK population is 67.8 million.

Secondly, there is no point in testing people to see if they've got the virus if they've already had it......and there isn't yet a test to show if you've had it but don't have it now.

Finally, everyone will completely and utterly forget about testing if a vaccine or simple drug treatment becomes available.

Your last point is true, Mike, but the vaccine is likely at least a year away, even if the present candidates work. And antiviral drugs are both rare and tend to have nasty side effects. They basically help you to survive while your body combats the virus, but they are not something to take lightly, whatever Trump says. The point of modelling and designing the exit strategy is to minimise the deaths that will occur between now and the ready availability of the vaccine, and to keep the NHS at a manageable load, ie in the next year (ish). That is why we need lots of testing now. You are right that we don't yet have the have-I-had-it test but it is important that we get it before too long (weeks). I do think we need a lot of testing in the next year, but once a vaccine is available it should be much less used. Though mutations will probably always be with us, so we will live with COVID-19 in some form (hopefully manageable) for a very long time.

Accurate modelling of the exit strategy - by many groups cooperating, not just one or two - could make the difference of many thousands of deaths.

I agree with your first point!

Keith

 

[RogerS]

Deaths are one aspect ...an important one, I agree.

But one needs to consider just how the economy will actually ever get started again. And how forgiving the public will be in perpetual lockdown.

 

[user22161]

....... we need lots of testing now. You are right that we don't yet have the have-I-had-it test but it is important that we get it before too long (weeks). I do think we need a lot of testing in the next year, but once a vaccine is available it should be much less used. Though mutations will probably always be with us, so we will live with COVID-19 in some form (hopefully manageable) for a very long time.Keith

I can see testing for health and care staff being very useful and they could be tested daily but, a one off test for members of the general public at this point in time may well lead to complacency and potential unrest - I don't have it so why won't you let me out? Because negative to day, doesn't mean you don't catch it on the way home from the test.