Coronavirus

[steve1001]

My mum is 85 and diabetic. She is in a Warden controlled home and isolated, and cannot walk outside. The earlist home delivery slot they could do for her was 3rd April, and that was two weeks ago!

 

[Jonathan S]

Guys.....you need to look at what has happened in Italy and Spain, It could be London next.
I'm in Spain and this is serious!!....

https://www.facebook.com/1095297518/pos ... 6&d=w&vh=i

I have chequed this with friends from Madrid and its for real!

I'm in Andalucia where its not so bad. A good friend local to me managed to get his inlaws out of Madrid before It got bad....they are in there 80s with health problems so high risk and I suppose lucky there daughter had left Madrid.

Generally the hospitals here in Spain are very well equipped and the service is good, I would say from my personal experience better then the uk......now to give you some perspective of what could happen in the uk.....a friend here has a sister in London that is a community nurse and she had run out of hand sanitizer and masks so cannot do her job safely.....her cousin is a Doctor in Suffolk and they don't have enough protective equipment either.....doesn't take much imagination to see what could happen if you don't get your act together.

Don't wait for your politicians to tell you what to do!


I had to close my company down 2 weeks ago.
As of Monday we are on complete lock down so only emergence and essential workers allowed to work....

On the bright side....Me and my family live off grid in the mountains 30km south of Marbella.....Spring in the mountains is beautiful!

Sent from my SM-J530F using Tapatalk

 

[Terry - Somerset]

Some posters are suggesting that deaths recorded as CV would anyway mostly have happened, and that the overall impact is a small increase on the level of death that would have been expected.

This is a reasonable proposition, but does not align with observation. Around the world demand for ITU beds and equipment has increased and health services are swamped by demand several times available capacity. This has not yet hit UK, but is likely to so within days. Hospital beds are sometimes at a premium and A&E are unable to meet targets - but the current crisis is quite different in scale.

The total death toll from CV is being modelled by some at very low levels (doesn't pass my plausibility test!). Complete lockdown is not possible due to essential workers - NHS, food distribution, power, police, military etc.

Assumptions need to be made about the lag between infection and death noting that many will self treat mild symptoms at home and never make the formal statistics - eg:

- infection to symptoms appearing - 2-5 days
- symptoms to possible hospital admission - 2-5 days
- time spent in hospital before transfer to ITU - 2-5 days
- time in ITU before either death or discharge - 5-10 days

I assume data is being refined for this - but based on the above sequence the likely lag is 12 - 20 days - possibly now a little less as self isolation, shop and restaurant closures etc began around 5 days ago.

If deaths are doubling every 3 days (approx) the daily death rate will increase by 2 to the power of about 4 or5 - about 30 times the current level . The number of deaths reported today was 260!

In principle herd immunity should kick in when around 60% of the population are immune, either though infection or vaccine (a year away?). Suppressing infection in this way may reduce the immediate load on the NHS, but makes it likely that some level of restriction will be in place for the next year.

 

[user22161]

Good day Gentleman.

My sister and her husband have just arrived back, on a plane, from Australia.
They entered the UK via Heathrow.
They were not tested for temperature or Covid, or looked at by anyone.
They were not quarantined.
They were told to go home and stay at home.
Of course, after coming back from 5 weeks in Australia they had no food. My sister joined the 25 minute queue that snaked around the car parks at the supermarket, shopped, and got food.

The authorities don't seem to be treating this as seriously as they have lead me to beleve. I mean, fresh off the plane and they were not tested! I must be missing something.

Seems like standard practice, exactly the same happened with us on Tuesday, arriving back at Manchester from 2 months in Portugal. Only difference was we saw no-one except passport officer, everyone else was in hiding so were not told to isolate.

 

[steve1001]

And now I have just read on the Gov.uk website regarding 'Guidance for mass gatherings'

I quote "In line with the social distancing guidance it is advised that large gatherings should not take place. While the risks of transmitting the disease at mass gatherings are relatively low, these steps will also allow emergency services that would have been deployed for these events to be prioritised in alleviating pressure on public services."

*** The risks of transmitting the disease at mass gatherings are relatively low ***

Well, that just does not make sense to me at all!

Steve

 

[Jake]

That radical anti-science organ the Lancet doesn't seem like it agrees that an "official" "absence of divergence of views" is a thing.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30727-3

 

[Trainee neophyte]

That radical anti-science organ the Lancet doesn't seem like it agrees that an "official" "absence of divergence of views" is a thing.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30727-3

Ever so slightly political article, I thought - someone seems peeved. Thy all have their own bailiwicks to defend and promote. Probably some attempt to wrestle power back from the politicians (not necessarily a bad thing).

Btw, I wasn't trying to add any spin - just trying to get my head around all the facts, alleged facts, spin, hyperbole etc. I have come around to your way of thinking, if it's any help - without the shutdown, more people would die, and unnecessarily at that.

Let's see if the cost is worth the price: "the operation was a success, but the patient died", could be in our economic future.

 

[transatlantic]

Just going to leave this here

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H_gE0ULxj1A

 

[Andy Kev.]

That radical anti-science organ the Lancet doesn't seem like it agrees that an "official" "absence of divergence of views" is a thing.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30727-3

Ever so slightly political article, I thought - someone seems peeved. Thy all have their own bailiwicks to defend and promote. Probably some attempt to wrestle power back from the politicians (not necessarily a bad thing).

Btw, I wasn't trying to add any spin - just trying to get my head around all the facts, alleged facts, spin, hyperbole etc. I have come around to your way of thinking, if it's any help - without the shutdown, more people would die, and unnecessarily at that.

Let's see if the cost is worth the price: "the operation was a success, but the patient died", could be in our economic future.

I think that the jury will be out until the whole thing has died down. Suppose the Swedish approach turns out to be relatively successful? Can it be compared to the UK because Sweden doesn't have a seriously massive city like London?

I've also started wondering that given that many people don't display symptoms or have mild symptoms that would not have them rushing to a doctor, if this virus has been kicking around for longer than we think i.e. did it get here from China earlier than we currently believe to be the case? That would imply the possibility of significant numbers of cases having gone unreported for quite a while as nobody saw them for what they were.

 

[Just4Fun]

@Just4Fun

Out of curiosity, as a mathematician, can you understand all those formulae that the cosmological physicists use ? Dark matter and all that ? Seriously impresses if you do !

First, I know nothing of cosmological physicists or the formulae they use.
Second, there is a huge difference between being able to read a formula and understanding the concept it represents. Unfortunately.

 

[Trainee neophyte]

Just going to leave this here

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H_gE0ULxj1A

Bulletproof!

This may make you all giggle:

In October of last year, the Global Health Security Index was released and it assessed levels of global health security across 195 countries. It specifically analyzed levels of preparation by focusing on whether countries have the proper tools in place to deal with serious disease outbreaks. Countries were scored on a scale of 0 to 100 where 100 is the highest level of preparedness.

The United States was named as the country with the strongest measures in place and it came first with 83.5 out of 100. The United Kingdom came second with 77.9 followed by the Netherlands with 75.6. China, which has initiated a series of lockdowns in response to the outbreak, comes 51st with a score of 48.2.

https://www.statista.com/chart/20629/ability-to-respond-to-an-epidemic-or-pandemic/

 

[D_W]

Just going to leave this here

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H_gE0ULxj1A

That guy's a quack. Sold jeep parts and then went out of business or something and set up a youtube channel. Hack is maybe more important than quack.

People whine about the healthcare in the US and lampoon about the results so far with the coronavirus (why can't we just make it go away), but our behavior here is like spain or italy - nobody wanted to isolate at first except the folks protected. The news articles focused on garbage like "we won't have enough free beds and we can't just set up hospitals like italy", but suddenly, temporary hospitals are being set up by the national guard in arenas and vacant spaces - all over the place. The prepper nut thing is a youtube video fantasy, though - just like the goofy "silky faster than a chainsaw" $500 hand saw garbage. It's like alternate reality.

The dweeb on this channel toots on and on about being self sufficient and relies on people sending him money or clicking on videos to make a "homestead" work. He's a jerk.

 

[Nelsun]

Just going to leave this here

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H_gE0ULxj1A

Oh my. I happened across this guy when looking at sharpening larger blades (axes etc.) and concluded he's not someone I'd get along with; overly opinionated but hypocritical too. As to the content of the video... yikes. I did see sales of ammunition rocket when Covid-19 started being a thing over there. This kind of video is just fodder for those folk. Thankfully, not all Americans are the same, but they won't be around when the dodo goes down and we'll be left with heavily armed survivalists. Smug ones at that!

 

[Rorschach]

Just going to leave this here

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H_gE0ULxj1A

Oh man people like that really make me laugh, especially WS, he is "that guy" at the pub, the one no-one likes but you have to put up because otherwise they make your life miserable. I feel sorry for his family.
Preppers like him seem to think that life is a like an episode of the A-Team, you get warning that something is going down, you have days to prepare and the bad guys don't attack until you tell them you are ready.
The reality is if his "homestead" was attacked the first he would know about it would already be too late and he would be dead or close to it. Raiders don't email and wait for an RSVP.

When I was younger I dated a girl from South Africa, she grew up in an armed compound, properly defended 24/7. They were attacked more than once, no warning, no idea it was happening until it started and even with professional security they only just managed to fend them off sometimes. Scary stuff. WS doesn't stand a chance in his wooden framed house in the middle of a field with just a teenager to help him.

 

[FatmanG]

ive watched him for ages hes a stooge im sure of it. I used to find him entertaining until i watched his part 1 (penultimate) offering when he started on Europeans and claimed that U.S.A was forever bailing our chestnuts out i think he phrased it. Apparently hes a successful multi millionaire multi talented highly intelligent 21t century man. He can afford anything he puts out content daily yet makes a living, answers 800 YT comments and chops down 50 trees mills them and builds chippendale quality furniture all in 1 day
1.4m people follow him on YT thats a seriously scary thought

 

[Stanleymonkey]

Just going to leave this here

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H_gE0ULxj1A

Wow! Will he wear all that heavy stuff when he is sick in hospital?

 

[Trevanion]

I've watched WS for years on and off, he's said himself a few times if he isn't on the extreme side of things and isn't a little bit controversial he simply doesn't get any views which I can see where he's coming from.

He's put out some good stuff over the years, I do think some of it does need to be taken with a pinch of salt sometimes though and I think sometimes he really is just being satirical.

 

[Woody2Shoes]

That radical anti-science organ the Lancet doesn't seem like it agrees that an "official" "absence of divergence of views" is a thing.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30727-3

Interesting. I learned a new word 'nosocomial'. Anecdotal evidence from a friend whose wife is a physician at a local hospital fully backs up the assertions aired by this article. If you haven't got c19 when you go into hospital there's a huge likelihood you'll catch it there anyway.

 

[Andy Kev.]

Here's a paragraph written by a doctor in an article in the Daily Telegraph:

Medically, fighting an epidemic by suppressing it through draconian restrictions of liberty achieves the opposite of herd immunity. It ensures that the majority of survivors have no immunity and so are at just as much risk next time around. Of course, the advocates of this approach are banking on the development of vaccines and other therapies for the management of the next epidemic. But a usable vaccine will almost certainly not be available by the time this disease comes back for an encore. Novel treatments based on anti-malarial drugs and antibiotics will also need to be evaluated in proper clinical trials. So, we will have to do the same again next time with the attendant risks to the economy and the fabric of society.

I don't think that there is anything controversial or novel in the ideas expressed in that. It does however bring the debate about the better strategies to a point: the UK's current approach depends entirely on the development of vaccines etc. before the virus reappears.

If we go through the same thing again (although presumably for a shorter time as implementation will be quicker), will we regard the current strategy as having failed? If, on the other hand, we had herd immunity a reemergence would of course be very short lived indeed.

As I said in a previous post we won't be able to come to any sensible judgement for some time yet but as someone whose initial instinct was to go for a shutdown, I'm slowly warming to the herd immunity argument.

What I do think should happen is that when it starts again and reappears in country X, then all flights to that country should be suspended and all recent entrants from that country (irrespective of nationality) should be quarantined.

 

[RogerS]

.....
As I said in a previous post we won't be able to come to any sensible judgement for some time yet but as someone whose initial instinct was to go for a shutdown, I'm slowly warming to the herd immunity argument.

I can't speak for what's happening in Germany but here in the UK, hospitals are overwhelmed. And that's with lockdown. Had we stayed with the 'herd immunity' approach then I dread to think just how bad it would have been. You're right though...there is no simple exit strategy from lockdown unless a vaccine becomes available and/or a test for antibodies as there has been some suggestion that a lot of us were infected but just didn't know it since our own immune system fought the virus off.

.
What I do think should happen is that when it starts again and reappears in country X, then all flights to that country should be suspended and all recent entrants from that country (irrespective of nationality) should be quarantined.

Agreed although, as we're not living in a police state, the second suggestion would be difficult to implement. Especially with 'helpful' organisations like BigBrotherWatch banging on and on. You only need to look at the BS they've pumped out here. They are clearly the experts in epidemiology and pandemics. After all, what do WHO know compared to BBW?