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Andy Kev.":1il146zz said:
the point you are making is what precisely?

That if you teach people that they should ignore experts and listen to charlatans, they will ignore experts at a time when you probably don't want them to.

A rather fitting quote from "The American President"

People want leadership. And in the absence of genuine leadership, they will listen to anyone who steps up to the microphone. They want leadership.... They’re so thirsty for it, they’ll crawl through the desert toward a mirage, and when they discover there’s no water, they’ll drink the sand.

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Andy Kev.":2n5jkqxk said:
Ultimately it's a matter of self knowledge as to how able one is to judge.

ROTFLMAO - can I have my tenner? :p
 
I have been rummaging through the following article, which I strongly recommend, even if it makes you want to throw things: https://swprs.org/a-swiss-doctor-on-covid-19/

It has some startlingly different takes on things:
The mortality profile remains puzzling from a virological point of view because, in contrast to influenza viruses, children are spared and men are affected about twice as often as women. On the other hand, this profile corresponds to natural mortality, which is close to zero for children and almost twice as high for 75-year-old men as for women of the same age.
The younger test-positive deceased almost always had severe pre-existing conditions. For example, a 21-year-old Spanish soccer coach had died test-positive, making international headlines. However, the doctors diagnosed an unrecognized leukemia, whose typical complications include severe pneumonia.
The decisive factor in assessing the danger of the disease is therefore not the number of test-positive persons and deceased, which is often mentioned in the media, but the number of people actually and unexpectedly developing or dying from pneumonia (so-called excess mortality). So far, this value remains very low in most countries.
The Italian National Health Institute ISS has published a new report on test-positive deaths:

The median age is 80.5 years (79.5 for men, 83.7 for women).
10% of the deceased was over 90 years old; 90% of the deceased was over 70 years old.
At most 0.8% of the deceased had no pre-existing chronic illnesses.
Approximately 75% of the deceased had two or more pre-existing conditions, 50% had three more pre-existing conditions, in particular heart disease, diabetes and cancer.
Five of the deceased were between 31 and 39 years old, all of them with serious pre-existing health conditions (e.g. cancer or heart disease).
The National Health Institute hasn’t yet determined what the patients examined ultimately died of and refers to them in general terms as Covid19-positive deaths.
Regarding the situation in Italy: Most major media falsely report that Italy has up to 800 deaths per day from the coronavirus. In reality, the president of the Italian Civil Protection Service stresses that these are deaths „with the coronavirus and not from the coronavirus“ (minute 03:30 of the press conference). In other words, these persons died while also testing positive.

As Professors Ioannidis and Bhakdi have shown, countries like South Korea and Japan that introduced no lockdown measures have experienced near-zero excess mortality in connection with Covid-19, while the Diamond Princess cruise ship experienced an extra­polated mortality figure in the per mille range, i.e. at or below the level of the seasonal flu.

Current test-positive death figures in Italy are still less than 50% of normal daily overall mortality in Italy, which is around 1800 deaths per day. Thus it is possible, perhaps even likely, that a large part of normal daily mortality now simply counts as „Covid19“ deaths (as they test positive). This is the point stressed by the President of the Italian Civil Protection Service.

However, by now it is clear that certain regions in Northern Italy, i.e. those facing the toughest lockdown measures, are experiencing markedly increased daily mortality figures. It is also known that in the Lombardy region, 90% of test-positive deaths occur not in intensive care units, but instead mostly at home. And more than 99% have serious pre-existing health conditions.

Professor Sucharit Bhakdi has called lockdown measures „useless“, „self-destructive“ and a „collective suicide“. Thus the extremely troubling question arises as to what extent the increased mortality of these elderly, isolated, highly stressed people with multiple pre-existing health conditions may in fact be caused by the weeks-long lockdown measures still in force.

If so, it may be one of those cases where the treatment is worse than the disease. (See update below: only 12% of death certificates show the coronavirus as a cause.)

If, and it's a big if, this article is presenting accurate data (lots of pukka links suggesting it might be), then something very weird is going on.
 
I wonder if the people dieing in ICU's are thinking they should have spent more time on that internet arguement............
 
Andy Kev.":jfvovy5n said:
What I personally will be avoiding is any sort of judgement until all the facts are in the open which I reckon will take some time.
Fair enough. Personally I am not really interested in making judgements at all, now or in the future. I am more interested in playing with the data to identify trends & changes, or make predictions. Not with any object in mind; more because, being a bit of a geek, I like to play with numbers. If my conclusions turn out to be wrong it will make no difference at all to anyone as nobody (not even me) is going to rely on my calculations for anything except intellectual curiosity.
 
ScaredyCat":1n2pcog9 said:
Andy Kev.":1n2pcog9 said:
the point you are making is what precisely?

That if you teach people that they should ignore experts and listen to charlatans, they will ignore experts at a time when you probably don't want them to.

A rather fitting quote from "The American President"

People want leadership. And in the absence of genuine leadership, they will listen to anyone who steps up to the microphone. They want leadership.... They’re so thirsty for it, they’ll crawl through the desert toward a mirage, and when they discover there’s no water, they’ll drink the sand.

.

I don't think that Gove was "teaching" anybody anything and he was certainly not suggesting that people should listen to charlatans. There's nothing wrong with accusing somebody of something they have done but to accuse them of what they demonstrably have not done seems a bit odd to me. His remarks about economic experts - and they were confined explicitly to that group - were entirely justified by the historical record.

As he pointed out, the key remark was instantly taken out of context and yet you still want to latch on to it. Baffling.

To link the particularly dubious figure of Trump to Gove seems to me to be a bit of a non-sequitur.
 
doctor Bob":2rep6jd9 said:
I wonder if the people dieing in ICU's are thinking they should have spent more time on that internet arguement............

Doctors and nurses, or patients?

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@Just4Fun

Out of curiosity, as a mathematician, can you understand all those formulae that the cosmological physicists use ? Dark matter and all that ? Seriously impresses if you do !
 
Just came across an interesting news feed on the NTD chanel on youtube. Apparently over the last 3 months 25 million mobile phone accounts in China have dropped to a zero usage status, mainly amongst their version of PAYG used mostly by the poorest migrant workers (18 millo leaving 6 unaccounted for)
 
RogerS":3ui08uqs said:
@Just4Fun

Out of curiosity, as a mathematician, can you understand all those formulae that the cosmological physicists use ? Dark matter and all that ? Seriously impresses if you do !
If he can understand dark matter he's definitely a shoo in for a Nobel Prize, cos nobody else has understood it yet. As one wag put it: if the theories say that 80% of the matter in the universe is missing, it might be time to have a look at the theories instead of looking for the matter.

Should you want a gentle (-ish) introduction to all this, may I recommend Galaxies and Cosmology by Jones, Lambourne et al. I can't do maths either but I am able to bash through text. I suppose it all depends on how much you need to occupy yourself during the coming confinement.

It would be quite amusing if somebody came up with the answer to Life, The Universe and Everything because he'd finished his book of Su Doku during the corona crisis and had nothing better to do.
 
Andy Kev.":183jp4ui said:
I don't think that Gove was "teaching" anybody anything and he was certainly not suggesting that people should listen to charlatans.

Not directly but the brexit process, something he is very much part of, has. It has shown that the truth doesn't matter as long as you repeat the lie enough times. They (and he) simply taught people to listen to charlatans by repeating their lies.

Andy Kev.":183jp4ui said:
As he pointed out, the key remark was instantly taken out of context and yet you still want to latch on to it. Baffling.

He said those words. I was merely using the well known words he used.

Andy Kev.":183jp4ui said:
To link the particularly dubious figure of Trump to Gove seems to me to be a bit of a non-sequitur.

Probably why I didn't make it.


edit to fix wonky quoting
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Droogs":r1pzwn8f said:
Just came across an interesting news feed on the NTD chanel on youtube. Apparently over the last 3 months 25 million mobile phone accounts in China have dropped to a zero usage status, mainly amongst their version of PAYG used mostly by the poorest migrant workers (18 millo leaving 6 unaccounted for)
Oh yes!!!

The raw stuff of conspiracy theories!

Give it maximum distribution.
 
ScaredyCat":1jyxvvkh said:
Andy Kev.":1jyxvvkh said:
I don't think that Gove was "teaching" anybody anything and he was certainly not suggesting that people should listen to charlatans.

Not directly but the brexit process, something he is very much part of, has. It has shown that the truth doesn't matter as long as you repeat the lie enough times. They (and he) simply taught people to listen to charlatans by repeating their lies.

Andy Kev.":1jyxvvkh said:
As he pointed out, the key remark was instantly taken out of context and yet you still want to latch on to it. Baffling./quote]

He said those words. I was merely using the well known words he used.

Andy Kev.":1jyxvvkh said:
To link the particularly dubious figure of Trump to Gove seems to me to be a bit of a non-sequitur.

Probably why I didn't make it.

.
Just bear in mind that we're not supposed to be discussing the B word. In any event, the jury is still out on that too and we won't know the facts until all the dust settles in three to five years.

If following one thing directly with another, presumably to illustrate the first point isn't to link them, then I don't know what is.

(And just to cover my behind: there is no link between my first and second paras in this post. :mrgreen:)
 
Droogs":29u5i5jd said:
Just came across an interesting news feed on the NTD chanel on youtube. Apparently over the last 3 months 25 million mobile phone accounts in China have dropped to a zero usage status, mainly amongst their version of PAYG used mostly by the poorest migrant workers (18 millo leaving 6 unaccounted for)

Any other detail on this? Where's the data from?

.
 
Andy Kev.":qwqkgq7j said:
If following one thing directly with another, presumably to illustrate the first point isn't to link them, then I don't know what is.

1) The phrase is a well known one and illustrates with, what I, obviously incorrectly, thought might be comedic value, that you reap what you sow.
2) I regard him as one of the Charlatans.
3) Yes, COVID-19 thread.
4) , , ,

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Andy Kev.":24zlyd2s said:
.....
It would be quite amusing if somebody came up with the answer to Life, The Universe and Everything because he'd finished his book of Su Doku during the corona crisis and had nothing better to do.

:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: =D> =D>
 
Andy Kev.":20kkqz64 said:
...

It would be also interesting to see to what extent epidemiologists and virologists diverge in opinion on the matter. In making that statement what I suspect is your political bias is again showing through because it is hardly likely that virologists will have any serious divergence of opinion: the virus either has certain structures/proteins/genome/modus operandii or it doesn't. As far as I am aware there is an exceedingly high degree of unity of opinion about these things in relation to the virus. Perhaps MusicMan could comment.

Andy Kev, from my very limited knowledge (I'm a materials scientist not a virologist, I just know some of those working in the field) I think you are probably right about the agreement amongst virologists. And I do know that the epidemiology is by no means regarded as settled, but as work-in-progress. The methods are quite well-established and not controversial but the parameters and influences are at present best-assumptions, which are refined as more data from the UK and other countries are available. There is also the question of how best to handle the very large and disparate data sets that are coming out from the different countries. The epidemiological community, which is small but very strong in the UK, is working flat out to refine and improve the models in addition to spending much time advising government bodies. A call has in fact just gone out to the whole of the UK modelling community (all university research teams, all scientists with track record in the field including long-retired ones like myself) to add either specific expertise, cross-disciplinary insights (for example, how very large data sets in other fields are handled) or human and computing resource to help them in this national effort. It is coordinated by the Royal Society. The first aim is to understand the potential effects of the various options for exiting the escalating lock-down strategy in order to make more robust predictions.

If you have real research skills to offer in modelling then you will be able to get involved in this programme, which is called RAPID ASSISTANCE IN MODELLING THE PANDEMIC: RAMP, through your university or industrial contacts.

I am not engaging in the current mudslinging (political or scientific), nascent conspiracy theories or in the simplistic epidemiology that is going on in this thread. Nor am I judging it.

On a slightly lighter note, others might enjoy the music video by Jon Lajoie "Thank god for the ---- nerds".

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5QCkN_b ... e=youtu.be
 
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