Coronavirus

[Steve Maskery]

I am also in contact with my friend and publisher in Italy. Francesco lives near Fumicino airport, so nominally Rome.
I pointed out, as I think I have done here, that it is no good having all this time on our hands to spend in the workshop if we cannot go out and buy any wood. He said his 2 local merchants are shut and he had to drive half an hour to buy some oak which was double the price he was used to paying - 2200EUR m^3.
The shape of things to come.

 

[Andy Kev.]

Peer review isn't an absolute that refers only to publication in professional journals - it takes place all the time in research, takes different forms and may have nothing to do with publication.

I must say that I too have never heard of it taking place outside professional journals.

But whether or not that is the case, peer review consists by definition of handing over what you have done or in the case in question what you have decided to do, to independent experts for their evaluation.

Now - and this is quite a serious point as opposed to point scoring - how much time do you think a government and its expert advisors - acting under the most high pressure conditions i.e. expected to select one course of action from a choice of many for immediate implementation - has for the luxury of handing over their plan to independent experts for their view, bearing in mind that they too by extension would also be under possibly even more pressure to come up with a view pretty damned quick?

What we have had on here (and I suppose that this is back to point scoring) is a bloke(s) who has heard the term "peer review" once, got a vague but incorrect idea of what it means and then tries to use the concept as a stick with which to beat the government.

This all seems to me to add up to reasons for evaluating the government's performance once the whole thing is done and dusted. We simply cannot come to a sensible conclusion at the moment. Mind you, if we have a political axe to grind, we were perfectly capable of coming to a 100% watertight conclusion before the problem even landed on the relevant desks in No 10.

Just keep on digging. I'm not bothering to reply to you after this.

:mrgreen: :mrgreen:

 

[Andy Kev.]

Mind you, if we have a political axe to grind, we were perfectly capable of coming to a 100% watertight conclusion before the problem even landed on the relevant desks in No 10.

Just keep on digging. I'm not bothering to reply to you after this.

Roger you are just to the left of Genghis, and this guy thinks you are being politically partisan by criticising a Tory government decision for being made on negligent science without any decent audit.

PMSL all the rest of the night.

You've just illustrated what I mean by the political angle. This whole thing transcends or should transcend that.

 

[Jake]

It's an imperfect solution, but, I hope, a lot better than nothing.

It's brilliant you have the DGAF to wear it out. Semi-seriously, with P3s and some isopropyl for inter-wear washdown you'd probably have a set-up a Covid ICU unit would be envious of.

 

[Jake]

Roger you are just to the left of Genghis, and this guy thinks you are being politically partisan by criticising a Tory government decision for being made on negligent science without any decent audit.

PMSL all the rest of the night.

You've just illustrated what I mean by the political angle. This whole thing transcends or should transcend that.

No I really have not. But yes, it should. And for Roger it clearly does. You, I don't think so. Me, I'm not being tested in the same way, but if this was any other flavour of government I'd be as incensed. Bad and negligent governance is bad and negligent, objections to that should as you say transcend party or political allegiance. There used to be standards about this sort of thing, you know. Basic expectations of people taking public office.

 

[Steve Maskery]

It's brilliant you have the DGAF to wear it out. Semi-seriously, with P3s and some isopropyl for inter-wear washdown you'd probably have a set-up a Covid ICU unit would be envious of.

I had to Google DGAF, but yes, you are right.

S

 

[MusicMan]

Let me give an example of what is involved in peer review. I've had my papers peer reviewed 150 or so times and have reviewed others a similar number. I don't publish much now but I published a large paper in a strongly-referred journal a couple of years ago. It was also on modelling, in this case acoustical resonance modelling on musical wind instruments. After the modelling was done, my co-authors and I spent about six months writing the paper, in this case mainly me writing and the others criticising and amending. Then we sent it off to the journal. They allowed us to suggest reviewers who knew what they were talking about but I don't know if they chose them or others. They were completely independent of our institutions, not even in the same country. After about six weeks we got the report which (as is common) said "accepted subject to satisfying the reviewers on the following matters". Some of these were fair enough and we accepted immediately. In others, we argued because we felt the reviewers had missed something important, and in the end they accepted our arguments. In one case they said 'you should have used model X rather than model Y for this step' and it took about two months of heavy mathematics and computer simulation for us to show that model X was no more accurate but was a lot slower. Of course the assumptions were specified and checked. In the end the paper was accepted. Did the process make it a better paper? Yes, definitely. Did it confirm that our methodology was sound? No, but it showed that other experts could not pick holes in it. Did it prove that our paper was "correct"? No, that is for the debate in the scientific literature. Did it repeat and check the calculations? No, that's not the purpose (and it would be a couple of years of work). Did it provide all the information need for someone to repeat our modelling? Yes. Peer review does not guarantee accuracy or truth but it's the best tool we have.

Now clearly this process could not be gone through in the case of the COVID modelling. It would have been more like a draft report issued before one started to write the paper. I have no certain knowledge of other models except that the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (who have been studying epidemics since the days of the Empire, 1899 in fact) were strongly in agreement with the 'herd immunity' model and are also represented on government committees. You can read their reports on their website. I suspect that Imperial have been scapegoated somewhat. And I very much doubt that it was something that could have been checked by a glance at a spreadsheet. But I don't know, and nor does anybody else who has not been privy to the whole story.

Publication is the main area, but there is one other, less common, use of the term 'peer review', which is in judging applications for research grants, major prizes and the reviews of university research. Again, this must be independent, objective and it is normal for at least three and sometimes up to ten views to be sought on a particular case. I still do a lot of these.

When your only tool is a hammer then every problem looks like a nail. A lawyer will look to apportion blame and negligence. A politician will think of the effect on the audience. A scientist will try to review the evidence and arguments. It is not that the jury is out at the moment, the court has not even been assembled. Of course there must be the mother of all investigations when this is over, but the job NOW is to survive and to help others to survive. I don't think that social media level arguments about blame are at all useful. And I am far from a supporter of the present government.

MikeG you are very much in our thoughts.

 

[Steve Maskery]

I spoke to some friends in Spain this morning. They have been in lockdown for a week. They are not allowed out of their home (trailer caravan type of thingy). Police stop every vehicle they see. EUR600 fine if you don't have a good excuse for being on the road.

There is a supermarket on site. One customer at a time, gloves and sanitiser at the door. You are not allowed in until the previous customer has left.

Someone is going to make one hell of a blockbuster when this is finally over.

 

[Jake]

... musical wind instruments. …

When your only tool is a hammer then every problem looks like a nail. A lawyer will look to apportion blame and negligence. A politician will think of the effect on the audience. A scientist will try to review the evidence and arguments.

Nice framing but what we actually do is the last of those (that bit is privy to our clients and shapes the real advice about merits), then we action publicly the middle (this is called advocacy, you do what you can to help the client's position), then the judges do the first of those things. You'd have a crap lawyer if they were not laser focused on the evidence and the arguments.

 

[Lons]

Reports on face book report that a gang of youths have congregated outside of the local Co-op and are coughing on passer bys.Nigel.

I find that if true to be horrific and borders on physical assault.
People like that, in fact every ignorant person blatantly walking around the streets without very good reason should be restrained and forced to listen to recordings like the one I've linked.
This one reduced my wife and daughter to tears and both were experienced nurses who have worked in A&E and ITU
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tQD4B_hmdvo

 

[Andy Kev.]

No I really have not. But yes, it should. And for Roger it clearly does. You, I don't think so. Me, I'm not being tested in the same way, but if this was any other flavour of government I'd be as incensed. Bad and negligent governance is bad and negligent, objections to that should as you say transcend party or political allegiance. There used to be standards about this sort of thing, you know. Basic expectations of people taking public office.

If it were any other flavour of government I would still be saying that we have to see how things pan out before we judge. I do not believe that any government would deliberately make sub-optimal choices in a matter like this. However, it is inevitable that some sub-optimal choices will be made. The best view of these is with hindsight.

Were I PM my instincts would have been to take a fairly radically different course, once I'd spoken to the experts of course but I doubt that I would have produced an anything like perfect solution. And I do know that I'm not in possession of enough information to slam the performance of this government and that they have not taken any fundamentally bad decisions - based on what I currently (don't) know.

 

[FatmanG]

Reports on face book report that a gang of youths have congregated outside of the local Co-op and are coughing on passer bys.

Nigel.

That's barely believable. What sort of education have these youths had to make them think that that is in any way acceptable? What is there appreciation of real life?

I trust somebody called the police as a bit of police brutality would do them no end of good.

I'm afraid that is the norm from the poverty stricken inner city areas. The area where I live parts of which I just would never go to again under no circumstance.

 

[MikeG.]

Here's the run down of symptoms etc. I've had a headache since Tuesday lunchtime, but I didn't start to feel unwell until Wednesday morning, when I developed a temperature and lethargy, and my kidneys and eye balls started hurting. Still not too bad, though. Thursday I started coughing, my eyes got really bad, I still had the temperature, with lots of aches and muscle stiffness. Momentary bouts of dizziness and a supreme lethargy I can't begin to describe. Friday the same, with a throbbing sort of dizziness/ light-headedness which made moving around unpleasant. This was probably the worst day so far. Yesterday (Saturday), the cough diminished. I went hours between bouts of coughing. It's the weirdest cough...completely dry, and seems to be doing nothing at all. It feels like there is one tiny hair somewhere in your throat. The dizziness abated, and I got out to the workshop for half an hour, but I was still very lethargic. Today, my head still hurts, and I still have a temperature, but I feel much perkier, less lethargic. I've only had one bout of coughing. I'm optimistic that I've turned the corner, but well aware that the next couple of days are the expected time for the onset of pneumonia, if it's to happen. If I can get through to about Tuesday much as I am now then I should stay out of hospital, I reckon.

I'll be clear. I've felt much worse with ordinary seasonal flu, which I've had 2 or 3 times. However, that's never lasted as long as this. So far this is unpleasant rather than awful. My wife thought I was just malingering for the first couple of days. And talking of her, if she is to get unwell it's around today or tomorrow when she might be expected to show symptoms. At the moment she is 100%. I am extremely fit and healthy ordinarily, thank goodness, but if you're not well, or you're elderly (say 80+), then even what I've had so far would probably have hospitalised you. Do whatever you can to not catch this, and if you do catch it, do whatever you can to keep it to yourself.

 

[FatmanG]

Here's the run down of symptoms etc. I've had a headache since Tuesday lunchtime, but I didn't start to feel unwell until Wednesday morning, when I developed a temperature and lethargy, and my kidneys and eye balls started hurting. Still not too bad, though. Thursday I started coughing, my eyes got really bad, I still had the temperature, with lots of aches and muscle stiffness. Momentary bouts of dizziness and a supreme lethargy I can't begin to describe. Friday the same, with a throbbing sort of dizziness/ light-headedness which made moving around unpleasant. This was probably the worst day so far. Yesterday (Saturday), the cough diminished. I went hours between bouts of coughing. It's the weirdest cough...completely dry, and seems to be doing nothing at all. It feels like there is one tiny hair somewhere in your throat. The dizziness abated, and I got out to the workshop for half an hour, but I was still very lethargic. Today, my head still hurts, and I still have a temperature, but I feel much perkier, less lethargic. I've only had one bout of coughing. I'm optimistic that I've turned the corner, but well aware that the next couple of days are the expected time for the onset of pneumonia, if it's to happen. If I can get through to about Tuesday much as I am now then I should stay out of hospital, I reckon.

I'll be clear. I've felt much worse with ordinary seasonal flu, which I've had 2 or 3 times. However, that's never lasted as long as this. So far this is unpleasant rather than awful. My wife thought I was just malingering for the first couple of days. And talking of her, if she is to get unwell it's around today or tomorrow when she might be expected to show symptoms. At the moment she is 100%. I am extremely fit and healthy ordinarily, thank goodness, but if you're not well, or you're elderly (say 80+), then even what I've had so far would probably have hospitalised you. Do whatever you can to not catch this, and if you do catch it, do whatever you can to keep it to yourself.

I've had pneumonia so many times I've lost count I'm not joking either!! Pneumonia is fluid on the lungs, its like drowning but the water is inside. The cause of the pneumonia is the only difference here and the great news for you Mike is you are not getting it. If you were then the cough and fever would only get worse much worse. its downhill rapid once it starts mate, your on the mend I'd bet my life savings on it

 

[FatmanG]

Here's the run down of symptoms etc. I've had a headache since Tuesday lunchtime, but I didn't start to feel unwell until Wednesday morning, when I developed a temperature and lethargy, and my kidneys and eye balls started hurting. Still not too bad, though. Thursday I started coughing, my eyes got really bad, I still had the temperature, with lots of aches and muscle stiffness. Momentary bouts of dizziness and a supreme lethargy I can't begin to describe. Friday the same, with a throbbing sort of dizziness/ light-headedness which made moving around unpleasant. This was probably the worst day so far. Yesterday (Saturday), the cough diminished. I went hours between bouts of coughing. It's the weirdest cough...completely dry, and seems to be doing nothing at all. It feels like there is one tiny hair somewhere in your throat. The dizziness abated, and I got out to the workshop for half an hour, but I was still very lethargic. Today, my head still hurts, and I still have a temperature, but I feel much perkier, less lethargic. I've only had one bout of coughing. I'm optimistic that I've turned the corner, but well aware that the next couple of days are the expected time for the onset of pneumonia, if it's to happen. If I can get through to about Tuesday much as I am now then I should stay out of hospital, I reckon.

I'll be clear. I've felt much worse with ordinary seasonal flu, which I've had 2 or 3 times. However, that's never lasted as long as this. So far this is unpleasant rather than awful. My wife thought I was just malingering for the first couple of days. And talking of her, if she is to get unwell it's around today or tomorrow when she might be expected to show symptoms. At the moment she is 100%. I am extremely fit and healthy ordinarily, thank goodness, but if you're not well, or you're elderly (say 80+), then even what I've had so far would probably have hospitalised you. Do whatever you can to not catch this, and if you do catch it, do whatever you can to keep it to yourself.

I've had pneumonia so many times I've lost count I'm not joking either!! Pneumonia is fluid on the lungs, its like drowning but the water is inside. The cause of the pneumonia is the only difference here and the great news for you Mike is you are not getting it. If you were then the cough and fever would only get worse much worse. its downhill rapid once it starts mate, your on the mend I'd bet my life savings on it

Edit. Also with pneumonia when you cough you get terrible sharp stabbing in your back/lungs

 

[Phil Pascoe]

I had to Google DGAF, but yes, you are right.
S

What?? You've never seen "Dilligaf"? on an HGV or a biker's leathers?

 

[MikeG.]

...... The cause of the pneumonia is the only difference here and the great news for you Mike is you are not getting it. If you were then the cough and fever would only get worse much worse. its downhill rapid once it starts mate, your on the mend I'd bet my life savings on it

The slight counter to that is that people report getting better between phases of this disease. Some say they got over it completely, then suddenly went down with pneumonia.

 

[Phil Pascoe]

I rather hope having had a pneumonia ***, it might mitigate that. Got to hope for something.

 

[toolsntat]

MikeG and FatmanG a public thank you for making me so much more aware of this information that I have either missed being broadcast or distributed.
Cheers Andy

 

[FatmanG]

...... The cause of the pneumonia is the only difference here and the great news for you Mike is you are not getting it. If you were then the cough and fever would only get worse much worse. its downhill rapid once it starts mate, your on the mend I'd bet my life savings on it

The slight counter to that is that people report getting better between phases of this disease. Some say they got over it completely, then suddenly went down with pneumonia.

You have more info than I do. Tbh I've not heard an account from anyone only what's reported. Any links Mike I'd be interested to hear accounts from the horses mouth so to speak.
FG