Spain - 1996 a major flooding event in the Pyrenees killed ~70. The death toll is only partly associated with the intensity of the storm - more critical are population densities, topography, quality of existing infrastructure and precisely where the rain fell.
No the deaths were directly due to the storm. Without the storm there would have been no deaths.
The recent Spanish event is extreme but not unprecedented.
I rather thought they were the most severe ever, in particular areas.
In itself it is not proof of climate change,
True
but taken as a pattern of increasing frequency may be.
Exactly. Increasing frequency and intensity, or in other places and times the opposite, leading to drought.
That climate change is happening seems beyond reasonable doubt - there few informed and knowledgeable who would disagree - mainly those with a credibility deficit.
Yep.
There are risks of a "tipping point" but no one can say reliably when that might be.
Nor can you
More likely is a gradual increase in average temperatures,
You don't know that. The science doesn't say it either.
Peak temperatures are the critical thing, drought, fires and unsurvivable air temperatures. Not gradual either.
increased rainfall overall, changing weather patterns.
NB decreased rainfall in other places.
It is a real but not immediate threat.
It wasn't an immediate threat in Spain a few weeks ago!
Perceptions of time are key. By 2100 sea level is expected to rise between 0.28 and 1.02m. Most contributors to this forum will be long gone. The connection with "now" may be grandchildren who will then be 80+.
Very optimistic and unrealistic. Tipping point being reached here for example
https://www.bas.ac.uk/media-post/grim-outlook-for-antarcticas-thwaites-glacier/
Changes from a human perspective are slow,
Tell that to those who have already experienced it.
https://friendsoftheearth.uk/climate-change/extreme-weather-impacts
from a geological perspective utterly rapid.
The UK, together with many prosperous developed economies will largely adapt to modest changes.
No reason to think that. In fact "developed" economies are in some ways the most vulnerable - sudden breakdown in the food chain, power shortages etc.
...
Poorer less advantaged societies will suffer.
Why? Advanced societies are suffering - Spain; floods and fires, also all over the place including California, Australia, even above the arctic circle
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c25l17v7qn0o
Worldwide mass migration will emerge
It is happening already. Have you really not noticed! There's been a big fuss about it!
and conflict over basic resources - water, farmland etc.
Nothing new there, has been going on for a very long time. Will intensify though.
The challenge for developed richer societies will be whether to help and welcome those in need - or put up barriers.
If they are able, but it's too easy to imagine we won't suffer as much as the third world.
Based on current COP progress and the Trump philosophy, which certainly exists throughout Europe, I don't see a happy outcome.
Yep.