Antibody Tests with Covid - 15% Population Rate in Germany

[D_W]

I've read a few articles now where antibody tests with covid are showing wider infection rates. This is a good thing as we're not exactly to the "oh, just let everyone get it" point, but more people have had it than expected (potential convalescent plasma donors?), and that brings the death and serious case rate down.

The story today suggested that Germany ran a 1000 person random test and the antibody rate came back at 15% of the population (i've read several articles, but IIRC the tested rates were perhaps a 6th ? of that).

Separately, a chinese study was mentioned suggesting that the outbreak then containment then post-event antibody test also showed 15%.

And separately yet from that, some enterprising individuals in massachusetts measured the viral density in sewer here in the states in either connecticut or massachusetts and found the amount of virus in the poo (just in case you think your job is bad the next time you're working late and your computer crashes or something and you're woe is meeing yourself) was at a level 6 times higher than it would've been based on the confirmed case rate.

None of this will really be news as Mike and his Mrs. likely had it, and it sounds like they're not in the record books. Many here where I live (our total tested rate is pretty low compared to some other cities) appear to have it or have had it, and that includes nursing homes that it's now sweeping through, and we are seeing deaths, but not at the original expected rates.

We have a gaggle of different vaccines here in the states including one local to me that's a patch of tiny needles made of some kind of sugar or protein that induces mice to produce antibodies that would kill covid-19 as it stands now. I'm waiting for the trial to open as I would like to be included as a mildly at risk person if they'll let me.

 

[RogerS]

Having mused about testing over the last few days, it seems to me that testing 'FOR' Covid-19 is pretty pointless as you can test someone on Monday and they are OK but test again on Tuesday and they are infected. Not really practical to do it on a daily basis, surely ?

The anti-body test (assuming minimal false positives or negatives) is really where we need to focus IMO as if, as has been suggested many people have had it but were asymptomatic then (a) it alleviates them from worrying about whether or not they might catch it but (b) more importantly allows some easing of social-distancing to get the economy moving again. But....

...but how does one police that ? How do you distinguish between someone who's been tested etc and someone who hasn't but just wants to get out of the house for a bit.

On an optimistic note, only three new cases yesterday in Northumberland. =D>

 

[Droogs]

RogerS, I think that may be up to us as to how effective policing it would be. There are phone tracking apps being thought about. But are you willing to give up all you privacy re tracking and be mandated to have your phone with you at all times. I did read reports in China that police were turning up at locations to see why a phone was turned off if it had not been reconnected within 15 minutes in Wuhan

 

[MikeG.]

And if you don't have a mobile phone........?

 

[Droogs]

maybe you are given a secondhand one for tracking purposes only, i dunno.

 

[RogerS]

....But are you willing to give up all you privacy re tracking and be mandated to have your phone with you at all times....

For the duration of the hostilities, yup.

 

[Sheffield Tony]

That is, presuming you believe you have not sleepwalked into giving up most of that privacy long ago to Google, Facebook, etc etc.

 

[Rorschach]

It'll take too long to sort out so much more likely just reduce lockdown by age and start getting back to work. I would think by the end of next week we will start to see relaxation, maybe by region to begin with.

Phone tracking etc will never work.

 

[MikeG.]

End of next week? I seriously doubt that. I can't see it being less than 3 weeks before a phased return starts, and I can't see schools opening properly before September.

 

[Rorschach]

Schools I think just won't bother with it properly, they are not particularly important in the grand scheme of things, they will have to start taking back those whose parents need to work though.

Other areas will start to be relaxed however, can't afford to go on much longer like this. Obviously this is not for those at high risk, they could be locked up for months yet, possibly the rest of year and for some particularly high risk people they will never be able to live a normal life again, not that they were before this anyway I would think.

I think by the end of next week there will be announcements on relaxation for the following week, so that brings us to almost the end of the month. My expectation will still be the tourism type business will continue to be closed, same for pubs and restaurants. Some more shops will be allowed to open and offices, factories etc will start to work again. Age used as a determining factor for going back to work, probably under 40 to begin with and see how that goes for a fortnight. People encouraged not to travel further than necessary for work.
Just my thoughts anyway, I'd put a tenner on it if the bookies were open :lol:

 

[D_W]

And if you don't have a mobile phone........?

forehead tattoo.

 

[D_W]

It'll take too long to sort out so much more likely just reduce lockdown by age and start getting back to work. I would think by the end of next week we will start to see relaxation, maybe by region to begin with.

Phone tracking etc will never work.

I think the outcome would be predictable if it's opened that quickly - another round of lockdown.

There's a serious lack of freedom here in the states, but not what you're thinking.

The hospital system in my city has a vaccine unit. They developed a novel patch vaccine that produces antibodies in mice several weeks ago, and we sit here doing nothing waiting to see when they can start trials. I understand how the vaccine works, and I understand that it may create antibodies, but not enough.

How did they make something that fast? Their unit already works on respiratory viruses (including MERS and SARS), so this wasn't a starting from the ground floor problem for them.

This is the same health system that developed the polio vaccine and was a bit cavalier in how fast they fought the system to roll it out, but we sit here and wait. If there was ever a time that they could take a small group of people, perhaps 100 volunteers, and start them early before waiting for the FDA, now's the time, and I"m in.

But I can't. And they can't. It's ridiculous. As if there's no big rush.

 

[D_W]

our schools are closed for the remainder of the year here already, by the way.

 

[Rorschach]

The problem with a C19 vaccine is that Corona viruses are known to suffer from antibody-dependent enhancement, so a rushed vaccine may actually make things worse in the long run.

The ADE effect may also explain why seemingly healthy people suffer worse/die from C19 than we would otherwise expect.

 

[D_W]

Does this pose a more widespread threat, or only to those who have taken a vaccine (e.g., does testing something on a small group of volunteers have a greater chance of creating community type persistence like can be found in antibiotic -resistant infections)?

I agree that rushing a bunch of vaccines to the whole population is a bad idea - or may be, chances are there could be unintended effects. But getting the trials started for small groups would seem to be the way to identify that

 

[Rorschach]

Does this pose a more widespread threat, or only to those who have taken a vaccine (e.g., does testing something on a small group of volunteers have a greater chance of creating community type persistence like can be found in antibiotic -resistant infections)?

I agree that rushing a bunch of vaccines to the whole population is a bad idea - or may be, chances are there could be unintended effects. But getting the trials started for small groups would seem to be the way to identify that

It would only affect those vaccinated as it doesn't change the virus, just the symptoms.

 

[MikeG.]

It'd be great if an accidental side effect of the corona virus vaccine was that it protected against other corona viruses......like the common cold.

 

[Rorschach]

It'd be great if an accidental side effect of the corona virus vaccine was that it protected against other corona viruses......like the common cold.

Nice, but unlikely. Up to 80% of colds are caused by one of the 150 or so types of rhinovirus. So even if it did work, it would probably only prevent you getting 1 or 2 cold's over your lifetime.

 

[D_W]

there is some supposition that antibodies to other CoV type viruses may aid in the reproduction of covid-19, but i did a little bit of looking around as i'd never heard what rorschach is talking about (it's a huge problem, apparently with zika and some other things).

A couple of chinese studies looked at it and concluded the potential for ADE issues are low.

part of me (knowing that ignorance can get you in trouble) still likes the logical situation here, though - waiver for people who are known at this point to be low risk, and trial for a small group quickly before a larger test is acceptable, and then steps beyond that before it becomes a population thing. It just seems like we're watching hundreds die each day here, in some cases thousands, because we're afraid that a couple of people in a study group may be worse off - volunteers at that. A day lost early on is probably a day lost the whole time.

 

[Rorschach]

Well seems I was wrong, they are crazier than I thought and are extending for 3 weeks. Although there was some mention on relaxations which is some good news at least.

Very interesting to hear the figures today, 90% of deaths had underlying health problems and deaths from heart disease etc are way down on normal (in other words they are being reclassified).

No good news on antibody tests, just hot air about a vaccine.

Very glad to hear visiting the countryside is now allowed, will make my partner happier as she was worried about going out for walks, didn't fuss me but you gotta listen to the boss if you want a quiet life :lol: