Tier 4

[MCTWoodwork]

Or DRINK?
Several suggestions that post covid will be big party time, the Roaring 20s back again.
Sounds good to me, could be worth isolating for!

View attachment 98963

Absolutely... I love the 1920's art deco period of furniture/design. And pretty dancing ladies. I'll drink to that.

 

[Jacob]

I am afraid there is no proof they reduce the spread. If you would like to link to any peer reviewed studies that show otherwise please do.

There may be no proof but it is a reasonable surmise, on the basis of what is known. Actual proof would be extremely difficult to obtain so an estimate of probability has to do instead.

 

[artie]

so an estimate of probability has to do instead.

Or perhaps a computer model, we have seen how accurate they are.

 

[porker]

Well my 17 yr old daughter is booked in for a C19 test tomorrow as she is showing symptoms and we have had two notification that she has been contact traced to two kids at her school that testing positive, so we'll soon know what we're getting for Xmas

 

[billw]

I have to say I'm perplexed by the comparisons of death rates in previous years to try and figure out the effect of the virus. Surely that's next to impossible even to estimate?

We've got more people so death rates should go up, but people live longer so they come down, then there's a more diverse ethnic mix, changes in poverty levels, all the less-common causes of death that might peak and trough in a given year.

Sounds like you might as well just guess.

 

[Rorschach]

There may be no proof but it is a reasonable surmise, on the basis of what is known. Actual proof would be extremely difficult to obtain so an estimate of probability has to do instead.

Not as simple as that though is it. Wearing a mask changes behaviour, it makes people feel safe so they get closer to other people, it also forces people to keep touching and adjusting the bloody thing so they are contaminating their hands and face.

It's a reasonable surmise that a mask might stop the spread through your breath but could actually increase the spread through other vectors.
Interesting to note that there was no change in infection rates after masks were made mandatory, nor do they seem to be helping now.

 

[niemeyjt]

I would just be thankful that you are allowed to re-enter the country if I was you and stop complaining. Boris is dammed if does & dammed if he doesn't. Would you want to be the person that gets up and say "Sorry no Christmas this year". If you want to blame anyone, decide who/where this all started and blame them. Unfortunately C19 is here, brought in by travelers who had it and we now have to combat this together taking the advise from our PM and his team working with him. We will all be able to have our say when its over,
My final point is that no-one has any idea of what will be the final outcome as we have never in the past had anything like this in the past. Yes we had the Black Death but this took years to get here, Spanish Flu after WW1 took time to spread (and did not infect the whole planet). This one spread out of control very quickly mainly as we can get around by flying etc.
So far I have lost a brother in-law to it, and my sister and my son are both still suffering the long term effects have had it. Just be thankful still to be here.

The issue is not my re-entry and quarantine on medical grounds.

My complaint that you missed is that others can skip the rules based on social or economic criteria - and until someone explains to me how a wealthy businessman, for example, is immune and no risk I condemn Boris for applying the rules in a discriminatory manner. The virus is indiscriminate.

 

[Rorschach]

I have to say I'm perplexed by the comparisons of death rates in previous years to try and figure out the effect of the virus. Surely that's next to impossible even to estimate?

We've got more people so death rates should go up, but people live longer so they come down, then there's a more diverse ethnic mix, changes in poverty levels, all the less-common causes of death that might peak and trough in a given year.

Sounds like you might as well just guess.

It's very difficult and made even more complex by the fact that every year we get better at keeping old, vulnerable people alive. Be this through medical treatments or vaccines for flu and other illnesses. Historically over the last 5 years we have had very little winter sickness and consequently we have built up a large stock of old and vulnerable people who in previous years would have long since succumbed to something nasty. Thus when we get a new virus strike (sometimes that is just a new strain of flu) there are a lot of people who are going to die from it. This is why the average age of a C19 death is 83. The longer we live, the more of these kinds of pandemics we will see.

 

[Jacob]

It's very difficult and made even more complex by the fact that every year we get better at keeping old, vulnerable people alive. Be this through medical treatments or vaccines for flu and other illnesses. Historically over the last 5 years we have had very little winter sickness and consequently we have built up a large stock of old and vulnerable people who in previous years would have long since succumbed to something nasty. Thus when we get a new virus strike (sometimes that is just a new strain of flu) there are a lot of people who are going to die from it. This is why the average age of a C19 death is 83. The longer we live, the more of these kinds of pandemics we will see.

Not true. Previous pandemics have largely affected the young — the polio outbreaks of the 1950s mainly hit children under five; the devastating 1918-19 flu killed millions of young adults.
Luckily every year we get better at keeping young, vulnerable people alive too.

 

[Rorschach]

Not true. Previous pandemics have largely affected the young — the polio outbreaks of the 1950s mainly hit children under five; the devastating 1918-19 flu killed millions of young adults.
Luckily every year we get better at keeping young, vulnerable people alive too.

What I said is perfectly true, as is what you said. Nowhere in my post did I say that young people never die, I was talking specifically about illnesses that affect the old.

 

[Nigel Burden]

Not true. Previous pandemics have largely affected the young — the polio outbreaks of the 1950s mainly hit children under five; the devastating 1918-19 flu killed millions of young adults.
Luckily every year we get better at keeping young, vulnerable people alive too.

I had Polio in 1956 three weeks after starting school aged five. I was one of the lucky ones, only suffering temporary paralysis and making a full recovery. At the same time in the next ward there was a boy from the next village who had contracted Typhoid.

Nigel.

 

[Jake]

I am afraid there is no proof they reduce the spread. If you would like to link to any peer reviewed studies that show otherwise please do.

It is very difficult to run controlled studies (if that is what you mean) on masking effectively, as the groups have to be huge. There is a lot of other evidence - summarised here:

Report on Face Masks for the General Public - An Update | Royal Society DELVE Initiative (rs-delve.github.io)

As you are dead against lockdown as well, you may find the chart below of some interest (it's from a paper which modelled mandatory masking and found that with 90% adoption/compliance the effect would be greater than lockdown).

 

[Tom K]

The wearing of masks is not effective on it's own when you look at the way they are worn by the public they are largely pointless. There are even doubts that they are effective in operating theatres. Unmasking the surgeons: the evidence base behind the use of facemasks in surgery

 

[Rorschach]

It is very difficult to run controlled studies (if that is what you mean) on masking effectively

So no actual evidence to back up your claim then?

 

[niemeyjt]

The wearing of masks is not effective on it's own when you look at the way they are worn by the public they are largely pointless. There are even doubts that they are effective in operating theatres. Unmasking the surgeons: the evidence base behind the use of facemasks in surgery

I see those with their noses hanging out of the top of the masks. That's gonna work well - given one of the places they test for the virus is up your nose!

 

[Jameshow]

In those ONS pages linked by Jacob it states top cause of death in September 2020 to be Alzheimer's and Dementia with Covid oddly as the 19th highest cause of death. Those comparing this pandemic to real disasters like Spanish Flu or the Black Death are way off the mark, it has been calculated that pro rata per population the Spanish Flu would by this stage in our "Pandemic" have killed about 120m and has been recorded the Black Death literally decimated the population of Europe. You will never succeed in running away from this virus it will run it's course and be gone, this pandemic will be recorded as a bizarre act of mass hysteria in years to come. Yes it is real, yes it can be a nasty thing and even kill you if your immune system is lacking but it is not a serious enough disease to shut down the world and destroy the economy for!

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55411323
The excess deaths are approx 80000 so far since march. That's with the two lockdowns and tiers.

How much will it be before the vaccine takes effect 160000???

How much would it have been without lockdowns and tiers? 1million?

Makes you think...

Cheers James

 

[Jake]

So no actual evidence to back up your claim then?

Read the Royal Society paper I posted - heaps of evidence. Science is not purely about controlled trials.

 

[Jameshow]

Stupid thing about masks is that there might not have been much evidence in the first lockdown but the there's was no downside so it would have been an easy public health win!

I wonder if they were scared that there would not have been enough for hospitals.

Hindsight is always 2020!!!

Cheers James

 

[jcassidy]

First rule is do no harm. People don't wear masks by default. Not advising people to wear masks changes nothing, as does advising people to not wear masks. No change from default.

Advising people to wears marks, and it causes 0.01% increase in infection, is bad.
Advising people to wear masks and it causes a 0.01% reduction in infection, is good.

So no masks until the data demonstrates a beneficial effect, however slight. Data takes time to gather, analyse, and review. It's as simple as that.

 

[Tom K]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55411323
The excess deaths are approx 80000 so far since march. That's with the two lockdowns and tiers.

How much will it be before the vaccine takes effect 160000???

How much would it have been without lockdowns and tiers? 1million?

Makes you think...

Cheers James

No without lockdown and tiers the number would be the same and the big flaw is adding the words covid 19 to a death certificate is a back covering exercise, it will never be checked and cause of death is usually only a best guess in most cases.